Steering Cleaner Conditions

Energy Experts Discuss California’s Plan for More Zero-Emission Vehicle Use

ered on its promise (by) providing more than 1,600 MW of backup electricity during the September 6th grid emergency helping the state narrowly avoid rotating outages.”

Legislation has also been implemented to allow “certainty and timely permits for non-fossil fuel, clean energy projects within 270 days,” the CEC says.

“Over the next decade, electric vehicles are expected to add only a small amount of electricity demand to California’s grid,” CEC spokesperson Toan Lam says. “In 2030, 5.4 million light-duty electric vehicles and 193,000 mediumand heavy-duty electric vehicles will only account for less than 5% of total system electric load during peak hours.”

“Today’s smaller electric vehicle population only accounts for less than 1% during the same peak period in 2022,” Lam says. “In 2035, 12.5 million light-duty electric vehicles and about 400,000 medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles will account for about 10% of total system electric load during traditional peak hours.”

However, Brouwer says California is not sufficiently investing in or building electric transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Some parts of the electric vehicle market have gotten to the point where there is no longer a need for financial incentives, he says.

There are efforts to make sure building codes and real estate trends ensure electric vehicle users can charge their cars, Swanton says.

“Having a place to charge your car is critical,” he says.

Making sure businesses have places where people can charge their cars in multi-dwelling units is important, for instance.

“There’s a lot of moving parts to it,” Swanton says.

The year 2035 can be either a short amount of time to hit the state’s goal or a long time to work toward ensuring the mandate happens, depending on one’s perspective, he says. Infrastructure is in place for the transition to successfully occur, Swanton says.

“It’s very rapid how much infrastructure is being put in place,” he says.

Under the 2022-2023 Investment Plan Update, CEC staff estimates 90,000 new EV chargers will be available across the state, Lam says.

That number is more than double the 80,000 chargers in operation today.

By Collin Breaux

IF YOU ASK JACK BROUWER, he supports California’s goal for all new cars and light trucks sold in 2035 to be zero-emission vehicles.

However, he does say the plan is “quite aggressive” and difficult to implement by then, because of several factors—including people rebelling against the state mandate, and electric and hybrid vehicles not being within a price range consumers can afford.

There are also more systemic reasons.

“I am concerned that we are not making sufficient investments in our utility grid network and related infrastructure to meet the demands of a large increase in electric vehicle use,” says Brouwer, an assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine, whose research focus is on energy systems—including alternative power.

“I agree that the power outages that we have recently experienced and the more frequent wildfires, some caused by the electric utility grid network and most resulting in grid outages, together with the increased use of public safety power shutoff events caused by grid stress, all point to the fact that investments and policies thus far are insufficient,” Brouwer says.

California energy officials are encouraging more use of zero-emission vehicles to reduce carbon emissions. The 2035 mandate comes from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which issued the rule because of a wish for “cleaner air and massive reductions in climate-warming pollution,” according to a news release.

When asked if the decree is too ambitious, John Swanton—an air pollution specialist with CARB’s vehicles and incentives team—says there may be some people who think it’s not ambitious enough.

“As long as we keep on the pace of installing infrastructure, we’re good,” Swanton says. “It’s going to require careful management for the next 10 years.”

Ambitious goals are being set, because conditions will continue to remain status quo if there isn’t a push to move the market forward, Swanton says.

“California is looking at addressing a need with the climate crisis and what’s good for our economy,” he says. “It’s also looking at benefits to the consumer. (Electric vehicles) are more economical to operate.”

As for examples of what’s being done to facilitate the transition, Swanton points to a fact sheet released by the California Energy Commission (CEC), one of the agencies CARB coordinates with for the state’s energy landscape readiness.

The CEC says a multibillion-dollar Strategic Electricity Reliability Reserve was created in 2022 to “act as an insurance for all utilities and balancing areas in the state” and “deliv-

“We are also not sufficiently investing to enable the gas system to support renewable power generation and transmission and distribution,” Brouwer says. “We must decarbonize both our electric and gas infrastructure if we are to achieve a resilient renewable energy future that can indeed support 100% electric vehicles.”

Despite those remarks, Brouwer says the state’s plans are “laudable and consistent,” and he praised CARB as an agency.

“CARB is one of the most objective science-based policymakers in the state,” Brouwer says.

Brouwer says he cares about addressing climate change and improving air quality— the latter of which can affect people’s health.

Fossil fuels won’t be around forever, he says.

“It’s not sustainable, from my perspective,” Brouwer says. “It’s a good idea to transition from fossil fuels to electric vehicles.”

Brouwer supports the ambition to increase the use of zero-emission vehicles.

“Even if we get to only 80%, that’s good for the environment,” he says.

Swanton says the push to decrease vehicle carbon emissions has been in the works since the 1990s, maybe even before then.

“It’s an evolution, over the years, of getting more stringent,” Swanton says.

The 2035 goal and steps toward getting there are not “too revolutionary” except for the increased percentages, he says.

Incentives for more zero-emission vehicle use have been in California since the early 2000s, though those are “slowly getting smaller and smaller,” Swanton says.

“Combined with funding from utilities and other programs, these investments are expected to ensure the state achieves its goal to deploy 250,000 chargers by 2025,” Lam says.

Additionally, the state is working to advance vehicle-to-grid integration technology that will be able to send power back to the grid during peak demand periods, Lam says. That is expected to offset the need for new power plants and provide backup power to homes and buildings during outages.

“By 2030, the state’s EV fleet could be sending more power back to the grid than needed for charging,” Lam says.

Rep. Mike Levin—who represents California’s 49th Congressional District of South Orange County and portions of San Diego County—says “America can lead the way in automotive innovation” by embracing zero-emission vehicles, which will, in turn, create “good-paying jobs while reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.”

“I am proud of Congress’ accomplishments over the last two years to facilitate the transition to clean vehicles, including by providing new and used electric vehicle incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, making historic investments in electric vehicle charging infrastructure through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and supercharging our domestic chip manufacturing capabilities through the CHIPS and Science Act,” says Levin, who has experience as an environmental attorney.

There will always be people who look back on fading technologies like gas-powered vehicles with nostalgia, Swanton says.

“Ultimately, in the long term, this is the way transportation is going,” Swanton says.