Digital Futures As advances in digital technology accelerate exponentially they can outrun our ability to keep pace with them. Yet in the next decade they will fundamentally redefine the way we work, live and play. We’ve examined the most powerful digital trends shaping our future. These insights will help you better understand the amazing opportunities they hold and provide the foresight to help you reimagine your world.
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Produced by SAP Marketing
Table of Contents
No. 8 Virtual Reality Gets Real Page 16
No. 1 Direct Your Digital Futures
No. 9 Digital Medicine: Healing Better
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Page 18
No. 2 Where Will Self-Driving Cars Take Us?
No. 10 Enveloped By Ambient Intelligience
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No. 3 Drones: Tomorrow’s “I” in the Sky
No. 11 Flowing Into High Business Performance
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No. 4 Makers Shake Up Manufacturing
No. 12 Making Sense of Sensors
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No. 5 Bitcoin’s Blockchain: A New Model For Trust
No. 13 Building a Better Business Model
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No. 6 Blending The Best of People And Machines
No. 14 Super Materials: Building the Impossible
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No. 7 Cybersecurity: Protecting a Hackable World
No. 15 Computing After Silicon
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No. 16 Gene Editing: Big Science, Big Business
No. 24 Taking Learning Back to School
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No. 17 A New Paradigm for the Insurance Industry
No. 25 Running Future Cities on Blockchain
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No. 18 Making the Next Moves with Blockchain
No. 26 The Future Will Be Co-Created
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No. 19 Let’s Talk About a Driverless Future
No. 27 Sensors: Tiny Engines of the Digital Revolution
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No. 20 Let’s Talk About Conversational Computing
No. 28 Diving Deep Into Digital Experiences
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No. 21 Rise of the Smart Machines
No. 29 Human Skills for the Digital Future
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No. 22 The Future of Cybersecurity: Trust as Competitive Advantage
No. 30 Next-Gen Batteries Will Define Our Future Page 60
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No. 23 Teaching Machines Right from Wrong
Digital Futures Sources Page 62
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Digital Futures
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Table of Contents
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Digital Futures No. 01
Direct Your Digital Future Gordon Moore’s venerable law turns 50, a milestone which carries a powerful inflection point. We’re now at the knee of digital technology’s exponential growth curve. Thirty normal steps take you about 30 meters. Thirty exponential steps (each step twice the distance as the previous one) covers 1,073,742 kilometers or more than 26 times around the earth.
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Also read “How To Direct Your Digital Future: 4 Questions”
In six years Airbnb grew to one of world’s largest hotel companies. Without owning any hotels.
The cost of sequencing a DNA genome is outpacing Moore’s Law. It could be as low as US$0.01 by 2020.
10M new autonomous vehicles per year could be driving on U.S. roads by 2030.
In 2000 starting an Internet company cost US$5M. Today it’s less than US$5,000.
Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar slashed 65% of San Francisco taxi rides in only 15 months.
47% of U.S. employees are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence within 10 years. Link to Sources
Digitization is the Catalyst
Disruption Examples
Once digitized a thing can be copied infinitely and perfectly and made instantly available to everyone. This spurs innovation and, with it, exponential growth.
Self-driving vehicles will dramatically change driver/ passenger experiences, increase productivity and safety, and reduce the need to own vehicles for personal use. The automobile, insurance, legal, and transportation industries will all feel the impact.
Next begins a period of deception because this growth appears linear at first; demonetization, as expensive goods can now be offered almost free; dematerialization, when existing products disappear into other, digital ones; and democratization, as costs drop so low enough to be affordable by almost everyone.
Digital bio-fabrication and DNA sequencing will transform healthcare by greatly extending lifespans and making ultra-personalized medicine available to billions.
The end-result is disruption, when the status quo is suddenly overwhelmed and a whole new market is created.
Bitcoin threatens to undermine the traditional roles played by banks and payment systems by providing a viable alternative to traditional currency. 3D printing has the potential to render product complexity essentially free by bypassing the physical limits of how we make and ship things. This will fundamentally change the manufacturing and distribution industries.
Organizational structure, the nature of work, and the limits of human performance will be rethought, as leadership, management, and education are transformed to fit our digital age. Projecting a Flight Path Identify your top competitive advantages and how exponential technologies could disrupt them. Describe your top challenges and how exponential technologies could help solve them. Evaluate which products and services could be digitized and what opportunities this creates for you (and your competitors). Investigate which technologies are the most promising, and begin–today–to assess their potential.
Credit: “The Six Ds of Exponentials” (Steven Kotler, February 3, 2015)
Digital Futures No. 01
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Direct Your Digital Future
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Digital Futures No. 02
Where Will the Self-Driving Car Take Us? Automobiles haven’t changed much since the late 1800s. They’re faster and more comfortable, but they’re still four wheels and an engine with a person behind the steering wheel. That’s all about to change. Lidar, radar, cameras, sensors, mapping and navigational software, and all the other technologies necessary to create an autonomous car already exist. Auto dealers will begin offering self-driving cars within the next five years. And because they will be safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient than today’s cars, they’re likely to become the norm, if not mandatory, in many places.
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Also read “Self-Driving Cars: Joyride or Wrong Turn?”
Cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and dropping.
Annual savings in the U.S. alone: $1.3 trillion – 8% of the U.S. GDP.
The 1.2 billion cars on the roads are used just 4% of the time. That’s 8.2 trillion hours of nonuse per year.
2020: fully autonomous cars arrive in dealerships.
Software will make up as much as 40% of a car’s value. Link to Sources
Gear Shifts
We depend so much on cars and trucks that we rarely think about them. They’re woven so deeply into our lives and our culture that we simply take them for granted. Self-driving vehicles will shake up most of our assumptions. Safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient, they’ll save a projected US$1.3 trillion a year in the U.S. alone – an amount equal to 8% of the U.S. GDP. This is likely to make them common, if not mandatory, in much of the world.
Warning: Sharp Curves Ahead 1. Our Hometowns
2. Car Culture
Self-driving cars could increase suburban sprawl by making long commutes more pleasant, but they could also make urban living more appealing by reducing traffic, parking problems, and inefficient mass transit.
5. Aging
6. Safety
Seniors who would otherwise be stuck at home will be able to summon self-driving transportation to the doctor, to shops and restaurants, and to visit friends and family.
Digital Futures No. 02
Car ownership could increase as vehicles find the best routes and parking spaces on their own. However, a car-sharing model might prevail when cars can guide themselves from one user to the next. Today’s cars might become collectibles driven with special licenses.
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Even when cars can choose their own routes, they’ll still need manual overrides and programming exceptions for things that interfere with navigation, like bad weather, or emergencies that require a fast trip to the nearest ER.
Where Will the Self-Driving Car Take Us?
3. Car Design Cars will look different. Steering wheels, large windows, and even headlights could be things of the past. Cars will become highly aerodynamic, with interiors designed solely for the entertainment and comfort of the occupants.
7. Liability When the driver isn’t controlling the ride, manufacturers and software companies could be responsible for payments related to an accident. Their deeper pockets could drive up awards for damages and change both the rates and structure of insurance coverage.
4. Travel Conditions Once everyone is free to work and play in their cars, automakers, OEMs, and content providers will compete to deliver apps, content, and user interfaces to make the ride more entertaining and productive.
8. The Auto Industry Self-driving cars will disrupt the entire automotive industry, from manufacturing to ownership. Software that manages the car will be close to 40% of the vehicle’s total value. Cars will generate vast amounts of data that will have to be processed, analyzed, and protected.
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Digital Futures No. 03
Drones: Tomorrow’s “I” in the Sky The first drones were remote-controlled model planes used in World War I to surveil battlefields. Today, a drone is any unmanned aerial vehicle that combines a power source, sensors or cameras, intelligent software, and a communication link to its operator. But they are much more. Drones are ideal for taking exponential technologies anywhere we want to send them. What’s more, they’re getting exponentially simpler, safer, smaller, and more powerful with each turn of the Moore’s Law crank. We’re hurtling toward a future in which drones are widely available, increasingly autonomous, and capable of tasks we haven’t begun to imagine.
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Also read “Drones: Lots of Buzz and a Little Bit of Sting”
The first GPS receiver weighed 50 pounds and cost more than US$100,000. Today, a 0.3-gram GPS chip costs less than US$5.
The global market for commercial drones will rise from $15.22M in 2014 to $1.27B in 2020: tripling every 18 months, faster even than Moore’s Law.
800 million people worldwide have limited access to emergency services due to weak transportation infrastructure.
Cargo drones could turbocharge economic development in Africa, where only 16% of roads are paved.
Solar-powered drones will provide Internet, Wi-Fi, and telecom services to people in remote places on earth. Link to Sources
Drones in Action
Today’s drones combine more energy efficiency, smarter software, and an expanding array of sensors to augment human capabilities in a range of commercial industries. Agriculture: assessing crop health, monitoring irrigation systems, and tracking livestock Emergency response: spotting forest fires, conducting search and rescue missions, and delivering food and medical supplies to war zones and remote villages Utilities: inspecting wires, towers, power plants, and pipelines Scientific research: tracking animal migrations, reporting on weather patterns, and finding previously unknown artifacts Real estate: inspecting construction and improving security News and entertainment: taking photos and videos from previously unreachable vantage points
Projecting a Flight Path Drones promise a world where we can capture any imaginable information from any conceivable location, see and understand places previously beyond our reach, and affect environments in ways we’re barely beginning to understand. On the other hand, drones may have enormous ramifications on personal security and privacy, creating a world in which everything is recorded, monitored, and indexed for searching and analysis.
Digital Futures No. 03
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Drones: Tomorrow’s “I” in the Sky
Trajecting Upwards, Quickly The same rules of exponential growth accelerating other technologies suggest drones will be a thousand times more powerful in the next decade. Imagine when drones are: 1. Tiny Some experts predict drones the size of a housefly − or even smaller. Think injectable medical nanodrones. 2. Infinitely versatile Drones could pollinate flowers, perform microsurgery, deliver cargo, provide wireless Internet access, even build using 3D printers. 3. Completely autonomous They will make their own decisions, within assigned parameters, about what to seek out, sense, and transmit. 4. Hyperconnected They’ll work together in swarms, fly in formation, and share data that helps them avoid obstacles and choose the most efficient routes. 5. Affordable by anyone Better materials, batteries, and propulsion will lower costs to the point where drones can deliver high performance to organizations or individuals for just a few dollars each.
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Digital Futures No. 04
Makers Shake Up Manufacturing Figuring out what customers want can be a fruitless exercise. Traditional methods often leave companies guessing at real desires, and mass customization is complex and expensive for many products. But what would happen if customers could design and produce their own products? The maker movement is growing up quickly. Individuals and startups increasingly bypass traditional industry to produce bespoke goods on their own. As 3D printing technology accelerates, hackerspaces are democratizing high-end production tools. And with new crowdfunding and online retail options, control over product development and production will return to the individual.
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Also read “The Top Reasons Why the Maker Movement Will Be the Next Renaissance�
The 3D printing market will quadruple to US$12 billion.
In 2006 the San Francisco MakerFaire attracted 65,000 enthusiasts. Last year 130,000 attended, and another 85,000 attended in New York.
Today, there are 1,100 hackerspaces around the world giving people access to production tools once available only to corporations.
Peer-to-peer e-commerce site Etsy’s revenue nearly quadrupled in only 4 years − from US$525 million in 2011 to US$1.9 billion in 2014.
Crowdfunding campaigns generated US$11.08 billion in 2014. The market will grow to US$93 billion by 2025. Link to Sources
A Manufacturing Renaissance
Technological and sociological shifts will turn the industrial revolution on its head. Today most products are designed for manufacturers − to make production easier. In the near future, products will be designed for and by individuals. This transformation has already begun. Coca-Cola introduced the Freestyle fountain, and now soda buyers can create their own concoction from more than 100 flavors. NIKEiD lets people put their personal stamp on sneakers, and Hershey partnered with 3D Systems to create the CoCoJet 3D printer. A Maker Mainstream As customization becomes a matter of changing code rather than retooling an assembly floor, it will become the norm. Individual-centered innovation. Today, innovation is tucked away in R&D departments, funding is provided by corporate finance, and production takes place a world away. Twenty years from now, it will take place in your neighborhood. A lot size of one. As 3D printing accelerates and comes down in price, more goods that once required economies of scale from a centralized factory will be produced at or near their point of use. Creativity, craftsmanship, community. Creative subcultures will flourish as individuals collaborate on ideas, funding, and production. Some may flock to cities and towns; others will work together virtually.
Maker Movement Mandates Cannibalize existing business models, and reorganize around individual buyer and maker needs. Figure out how to manage IP protection, product quality, corporate responsibility, and innovation in a highly distributed environment. Companies must help customers customize, or else customers will do it on their own.
IP: the corporate asset. It will not be that you produce something that delivers value but that you know how to produce it − and in myriad ways. Instead of designing, manufacturing, and delivering products, companies will design and deliver IP.
Digital Futures No. 04
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Makers Shake Up Manufacturing
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Digital Futures No. 05
Bitcoin’s Blockchain: A New Model for Trust If you think a digital currency like Bitcoin isn’t relevant to your business, think again. Bitcoin probably won’t replace the dollar, pound, euro, or yen, but its underlying technology – the blockchain – could challenge our assumptions about what makes commerce secure and trustworthy. The blockchain model of trust, through massively distributed digital consensus, could have disruptive potential equal to the Internet in the 1990s. This computer science breakthrough could reshape commerce across the entire digital economy.
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Also read “Beyond Bitcoin: How the Blockchain Could Disrupt Our Financial System”
The Bitcoin blockchain — the digital ledger of transactions — is growing exponentially and doubled to 40GB from August 2014 to August 2015.
As of August 2015, the Bitcoin The first worldwide blockchain alone was already conference on applying solving nearly 400 billion blockchain technology was complex mathematical held on May 28, 2015. equations per second.
Honduras began creating land titles based on blockchain technology in May 2015.
Visa, the world’s largest payment network, is launching a blockchain technology development team to bring secure digital finance to unbanked consumers. Link to Sources
Blockchains will keep us together
Every stage of a transaction is recorded and authenticated by the blockchain. As a result its utility goes beyond currency. In theory, the blockchain could be used for any transaction that must be secure and verifiable. For example: Personal documentation, including birth certificates, passports, wills, voter registrations, criminal records, and medical records Business documentation, such as building permits, vehicle registrations, health and safety inspections, business licenses, leases, and deeds Establishing ownership and provenance of all kinds of intellectual property, from artwork to software code
Managing ownership of and access to homes, vehicles, safe deposit boxes, and other physical objects Legal compliance that verifies the chain of custody of sensitive data, manages software and hardware licenses, and protects patents, copyrights, and trademarks Financial transactions, from stock and bond trading to the release of funds only when predetermined conditions are met
Trust by distributed digital consensus
The blockchain is a distributed digital ledger that uses a breakthrough in computer science to authenticate the transactions within it.
Digital Futures No. 05
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The blockchain can replace trusted third parties, like banks, in guaranteeing transactions and coordinates agreement among all parties.
Bitcoin’s Blockchain: A New Model for Trust
It strongly resists interference. Entries are protected with cryptography that becomes increasingly secure as the number of transactions and participants grows. 11
Digital Futures No. 06
Blending The Best of People and Machines Humans have always been fascinated with robotics, but legends like Isaac Asimov’s code of robot ethics, James Cameron’s cyborg assassin, and Marvel Comics’ Iron Man have been the stuff of science fiction. That is about to change. Automation and artificial intelligence will affect every aspect of human life. But the future needn’t be a dystopian one. As robots take over increasingly complex tasks, new forms of man-machine interaction will emerge and industry and society will evolve to accommodate a symbiotic relationship.
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Also read “The Future of Robotics: More Ironman, Less Terminator”
The robotics market will grow 9.5% per year to US$66.9B by 2025. Military and industrial uses will be 60% of the total. Commercial and personal uses will grow even faster.
The number of Internet of Things sensors will grow from 14.8B in 2015 to 50B by 2020. There will be 200B Internet-connected things in 2030.
Image and speech recognition technologies are advancing quickly and could soon equal human abilities.
Tactile technology is improving rapidly due to research and development in robot -assisted medicine.
The nascent virtual reality market will grow to US$30B in the next five years, while augmented reality will be a US$120B business by 2020. Link to Sources
We, Robot
Converging trends will spur new forms of robotics – flexible, sensory, tactile, intelligent, and interactive – with capabilities far beyond what we envision today. Robots complement the workforce by crunching numbers, lifting heavy objects, working in dangerous places, moving with precision, and performing repetitive tasks. This leads many people to ask if robots might replace us for all endeavors. But human advantages include creativity, curiosity, empathy, self-motivation, and the ability to provide multidimensional feedback. Using advanced robotics technology, we can blend the best of people and machines. The Upside of Co-Evolution Collaboration with robots will spur innovation, growth, and new ways of working. Rather than fear robot takeovers, it’s better to: Digitize processes ripe for automation. Identify those that benefit from human advantages but might be improved by robot-human collaboration. Experiment with robot technologies as they emerge. Consider pilots in production and supply chains. Invite employees to propose new ideas. Be open to entirely new robot forms and functions.Develop future scenarios based on your unique business model and industry needs.
Working with the Machines Advances in speech and image recognition, analytics, and virtual reality will spur robot development along two paths: A new class of human-machine units with defined autonomy, heightened empathy, and significant artificial intelligence. Artificial human extensions like stronger arms and legs, night vision, and other sensory enhancements. The result? Challenges like colonizing our oceans or space travel will be realized in ways that we could not accomplish alone.
Digital Futures No. 06
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Blending The Best of People and Machines
We’ve Already Begun New York University and the Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition are developing exoskeletons for the disabled. The U.S. military is developing an “Iron Man” suit that could include super-human strength and respond directly to brain functions. A team of researchers at Harvard University have created a “smart suit” that makes its wearer faster, stronger, and more agile.
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Digital Futures No. 07
Cybersecurity: Protecting a Hackable World The Internet was created to share data not protect it. But as the Internet becomes more central to daily life and grows to include billions of networkable items, guarding it has become a gargantuan challenge. It’s hard to lock down a system that was deliberately designed for openness, resilience, and scale. Some say only a massive global initiative will do.
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Also read “Cyber Insecurity: Trying to Waterproof a Sieve”
1999: “White hat” hackers predict the dangers of ubiquitous networking.
2012: New Internet Protocol allows 78 octillion IP addresses – 1 trillion for every grain of sand on earth.
January 2014: Security pros uncover a spambot network of more than 100,000 smart devices, including a refrigerator.
July 2015: Hackers prove they can remotely highjack a car.
September 2015: Researchers find potential vulnerabilities in 68,000 medical devices. Link to Sources
Missed Opportunities
Security tools and procedures are complex and costly. Some businesses fail to implement them because they don’t understand their risk exposure. Others understandably choose to prioritize things with a direct tangible effect on the bottom line, like customer service. Safer, more convenient, and more fuel efficient, they’ll save a projected US$1.3 trillion a year in the U.S. alone – an amount equal to 8% of the U.S. GDP. This is likely to make them common, if not mandatory, in much of the world.
Rising Risks, Increased Attention We finally understand that when everything is networked, anything can be hacked. As organizations and individuals become increasingly digital, we’re exponentially more vulnerable to cybersecurity breaches. However, openness is so baked into the fundamental structure of the Internet that re-engineering it for greater security is an enormous challenge. The Internet is now too embedded in modern society to avoid. Our only choice is to ensure that this global network can be trusted with our most critical services and transactions. At a minimum we must take the following actions: 1. Practice basic digital hygiene by using robust passwords, two-factor authentication and harddrive encrption whenever possible – and by taking social media privacy settings seriously.
Digital Futures No. 07
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2. Plan and invest to secure the data, interactions, and transactions and identities of customers, employees, and partners.
Cybersecurity:Protecting a Hackable World
3. Some experts even recommend using honest hackers to expose vulnerabilities and help develop stronger defenses.
But these may not be enough. With today’s cyber criminals circumventing security measures as fast as they’re developed, we may need to consider a global response – one with the intensity of the effort that took humanity to the moon in 1969. The future of the Digital Economy could depend on it.
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Digital Futures No. 08
Virtual Reality Gets Real Virtual reality (VR), the use of digital technology to create immersive simulations, was once the stuff of science fiction. So was augmented reality (AR), which lets users interact with digital content that’s overlaid on the real world. But thanks to Moore’s Law, VR and AR are about to go mainstream. With digitally enhanced realities firmly in the bend of the exponential growth curve, current uses for VR and AR suggest amazing possibilities for the future. They may even transform our very definition of reality.
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Also read “Virtual Reality Finally Gets Real”
TV weather reports adopted the first application of AR on TV in 1975. The term virtual reality was first coined in 1989.
The human eye registers 1 ten-trillionth of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Already in action
TOMS Shoes shows customers the impact of their charitable donations with a four-minute VR video that visits the residents of a Peruvian village. The Los Angeles Philharmonic immerses you in the middle of the music with a VR trip into the orchestra pit and onto the conductor’s podium. Lowe’s lets customers re-create their bathrooms in an AR space, position new fixtures, and walk through the simulated renovation. Researchers have developed VR experiences that work as well as the current standard for assessing cognitive function after a brain injury. Clinics are testing VR technology as a safe, private way to distract patients from chronic pain and help phobia sufferers overcome their fears.
Oculus Rift raised US$2.5 million on Kickstarter in August 2012. Facebook bought the company for $2 billion 18 months later.
Overall, AR and VR revenues are predicted to reach $150 billion by 2020.
By 2020, 103 million automobiles will contain AR technology.
Link to Sources
Coming soon
Redefining reality
Retailers will let you try on a dozen outfits in a few minutes using an avatar customized to your measurements.
VR’s potential for extending human perceptions beyond our current abilities could create a truly mind-bending future:
Car dealers will let you sit in VR simulations of new models. AR devices will overlay diagnostic and treatment information on patients’ bodies in the medical office or operating room. VR will let medical students practice complex procedures safely using simulated patients. Anxiety sufferers will learn to control panic attacks with VR/AR games they navigate by controlling their breathing. Bedridden individuals will enjoy better quality of life through virtual experiences of real-world activities like going for a walk or riding a bike.
We might use AR or VR for hyperspectral imaging beyond the visible electromagnetic spectrum to let us “see” valuable mineral deposits, hazardous emissions, or even malignant tumors. We might wear clothing that converts data into tactile sensations so we can feel an audience responding on social media as we deliver a speech or sense aircraft flight dynamics as immersively as a bird does. CEOs might someday wear a glasses-and-vest combination that lets them see and feel, in real time, how different parts of the business are running.
We’ll move beyond creating digital interpretations of reality and live in a world where reality itself is broader and richer than we can currently imagine.
Digital Futures No. 08
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Virtual Reality Gets Real
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Digital Futures No. 09
Digital Medicine: Healing Better The human body is difficult to understand and predict. X does not necessarily lead to Y. Disease has multiple causal components. That complexity is one reason healthcare has remained largely immune to the transformative potential of technology. However, several converging trends could change this. Access to an abundance of genetic, phenotypic, and clinical data; real-time and in-memory computing for advanced analytics; and a digitized, connected patient population could make possible a better understanding of the intricacies of human health.
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Also read “Digital Medicine: Healing Better in a Complex System�
Healthcare invests more in treatment than prevention; approximately 86% of U.S. healthcare spending is for chronic conditions.
Remote patient monitoring for conditions like heart disease, asthma, and diabetes could save more than US$200 billion.
Telehealth options (estimated to be a $25 billion market in 2015) for routine and psychological care could save $100 billion.
The global medical technology market is estimated to reach $513.5 billion by 2020, from $363.8 billion in 2013.
In 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first 3D-printed drug. Link to Sources
Vital Signs of Change
It’s possible to gather more health-related data than ever. But the digital medical revolution will go far beyond wireless tracking devices that monitor how we perform against fitness goals. Researchers and enterprises are developing devices to collect evermore detailed health information from individuals and relay it to healthcare providers. Data sharing between companies and customers lowers costs and improves quality in a range of industries and could do the same for healthcare. Rapidly improving data collection and analytics are enabling a pluralistic approach to care that will finally shift focus from treating the sick to preventing illness. Treating the Individual
The Upside of Complexity
Rapidly advancing technologies will enable much better patient care.
Big data alone will not cure what ails healthcare. But today’s reactive, one-size-fits-all system will move to proactive, individualized delivery of health management and disease prevention – if the industry chooses to manage complexity rather than work around it.
Pharmacogenomics and predictive biomarkers will match patients with the best drugs or treatments. Advanced analytic engines and algorithms will enable doctors to tailor treatment plans in real time. 3D printers will produce living tissue, organs, prosthetics, and implants customized for individuals. Robots and drones will enable more exacting surgical interventions. Low-cost gene-editing solutions will go from laboratory to doctor’s office.
Digital Futures No. 09
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Digital Medicine: Healing Better
We Can Get There From Here The industry must embrace new processes centered on outcomes and consumer controls. There should be debates over the ethics of predictive medicine and DNA-based care. Privacy and security issues will be paramount; hacking is even more ominous in the healthcare setting, from the breach of personal medical data to the threat of malware in medical devices. However, other industries have addressed similar security, privacy, and change management issues required for digital transformation. Healthcare can follow suit. The resulting transformation would not only save resources but also lives.
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Digital Futures No. 10
Enveloped by Ambient Intelligence The logical evolution of the Internet of Things is a world where everything around us is instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent. We will move through a world in which our surroundings are smart enough to react to our voices and gestures – or respond to us automatically, proactively, almost incidentally. And that shift is coming sooner than you might expect.
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Also read “Ambient Intelligence: What’s Next for The Internet of Things?”
1 trillion sensors will be connected to the Internet by 2022.
Appliances and home automation will account for more than half of household Internet traffic by 2024.
The first “smart city” with Internet-connected, automated roads, services, and utilities will emerge by 2026.
Intersecting trends
Powerful emerging technologies will overlap and intersect: Sensors and actuators, including implantables and wearables, which will capture and act on data from vastly more objects and places Interfaces powered by vision and/or gesture, which will create a highly interactive world Ubiquitous computing and hyperconnectivity, which will exponentially increase interaction and intelligence Virtual and augmented reality, which will extend and enhance our senses Nanotechnology and nanomaterials, which will enable highly complex devices at a microscopic scale Artificial intelligence, which lets machines learn from their environment and each other Blockchain technology, which automatically secures and verifies information, identities,and transactions The differences between drones, robots, and autonomous vehicles are already blurring.
Fabrics that can charge electronics – or incorporate them – already exist.
Over 8 billion ambient intelligence smartphone apps will be downloaded in 2020. Link to Sources
Trying it on, now Artificial intelligence is already good enough at pattern matching to learn and make complex decisions without human intervention. Home automation makes it possible for lights, air conditioners, security systems, entertainment systems, and appliances to run independently. Cities like Barcelona and Singapore are launching “smart city” initiatives to test automated services. The Internet of not things As sensors and devices become smaller, smarter, and more integrated, they will fade into the background, melding into a digital infrastructure that responds proactively to the environment and the people in it. At a minimum, the infrastructure must achieve these capabilities: Integrate information flow across devices, manufacturers, data types, and technologies Analyze and manage objects and low-level events to detect signals and predict impact Orchestrate signals and objects to fulfill complex events and end-to-end processes End-to-end security and monitoring across devices, connections, and information exchange Credit: Deloitte Consulting, 2015
To prepare for this world, we need to think about what it means to be surrounded by largely invisible systems that can sense, reason, act, and interact with and for us. Ambient intelligence will create value in ways we have yet to imagine, while raising profound questions about what it means to be human.
Digital Futures No. 10
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Enveloped by Ambient Intelligence
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Digital Futures No. 11
Flowing into High Business Performance Whether you’re an extreme athlete, a weekend warrior, or a dedicated couch potato, you’ve probably had at least one experience of being “in flow,” that hyperfocused state where you get so lost in what you’re doing that you hit peak performance. We’re finally beginning to understand the science behind the flow state — and to learn how to access it on demand. And that could be key to revolutionizing the workplace.
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Also read “Triggering Quantum Leaps in Human Performance”
Worldwide, only 13% of employees are fully involved in and enthusiastic about their jobs.
While “in flow,” business executives report a five-fold increase in productivity.
Companies that have employees revisit their goals at least quarterly are 3.5 times more likely to be top performers in their industry.
Research has discovered 17 triggers that speed entrance into the flow state.
Military snipers who trained in a flow state learned skills 230% faster. Link to Sources
Flow and Business Strategy
If you could spend just one day a week in a flow state, you’d accomplish as much as you currently need the entire week to complete – but flow is more than just a way to do more in less time. Flow increases dopamine, a neurotransmitter that triggers the brain’s reward and pleasure center. In short, being in flow makes you happier, which in turn helps you stay in flow. People say that they’re never happier than when they’re in that zone. If we can teach people how to get into flow at work, what would it mean for engagement, retention, and training?
Rising Risks, Increased Attention
Building the Extreme Workplace
The sweet spot for the flow is the point where we’re just far enough out of our comfort zone to stretch but not snap. The three most important triggers are:
Achieving a flow state on demand is just a starting point for unleasing human potential in the workplace.
1. Intense focus on a task 2. A challenge but achievable objective 3. Lots of immediate feedback
By setting the right kind of goals, giving continuous feedback, and encouraging risk taking and novelty, companies can motivate individuals and teams to keep pushing past their old limits. We need to create work environments purposely designed to help organizations compete and win in an exponential world. Digital Futures No. 11
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Flowing into High Business Performance
We also need to rethink how we measure, structure, and manage work. Eliminate traditional workplace hierarchies, which don’t fit a world of networked systems, high complexity, and exponential innovation, in favor of more flexible management styles based on purpose and shared values. Create physical spaces that minimize distraction while encouraging interaction, intellectual stimulation, and creativity. Provide employees with new ways to learn, train, and collaborate based on the latest research in the science of human performance.
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Digital Futures No. 12
Making Sense of Sensors All change begins with the ability to measure. For millennia, humans relied on our five senses to gauge the world around us in order to survive and thrive. With increasingly sophisticated sensors—soon to number in the trillions—we’ll be able to expand perception far beyond our natural abilities. Ultrasound, infrared, night vision and positioning sensors will increase our vision and hearing. Chemical sensors will amplify our abilities to smell and taste. Mechanosensors will intensify what we feel. But how much new sensor data do we need?
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Also read “The Future of Sensors: Business in High Definition”
Experts predict there will be up to 100 trillion sensors by 2030.
Image, speech, and voice recognition will advance to near 100% accuracy by 2025.
The speed of analytics will grow thirty-fold by 2030, with 95% of queries answered in milliseconds.
Sensors will be commonplace in the 111 million new cars and the 2 billion smartphones that will be purchased in 2020.
The Internet of Everything market could grow to $14.4 trillion by 2022. Link to Sources
Tiny Engines Drive the Digital Revolution
Sensors drive everything from advances in robotics to selfdiagnosing appliances, in form factors from wearables to gyroscopes to biochemical sensors. The latest smartphones carry a magnetometer, barometer, thermometer, gyroscope, proximity sensor, accelerometer, and light sensor. In addition to expanding human senses, sensors will monitor machines, buildings, and living things to help us precisely understand our environment.
Sensors will serve three purposes
Under Our Skin
The rules of exponential growth suggest sensors will be a thousand times more powerful in the next decade, providing:
Researchers are developing sensors to implant in or on humans, animals, and plants.
1. Sensory extension: Widening our perception and our experience of reality
Types: voice and facial recognition, ultrasound and echolocation, infrared, 3d imaging, biochemical, color and ultraviolet, swarm Applications: medicine, science, exploration, data visualization, logistics, maintenance and repair, retail and shopping, art
2. Functional sensing: Measuring parameters in humans, animals, machines, and infrastructure Types: ultrasound, infrared, biochemical, pathogen, torque and mechanosensors, smell, biodegradable Applications: healthcare, medicine, agriculture, maintenance, repair
3. Environment scanning: Gathering the data around us Types: voice and facial recognition, ultrasound and echolocation, infrared, 3D imaging, biochemical, pathogen, odor, biodegradable, swarm Applications: science, environmental management, public health and safety, agriculture and food/water management, energy production, logistics
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Making Sense of Sensors
Nano-engineers at the University of California, San Diego developed a temporary tattoo to enable non-invasive glucose testing. The FDA accepted an application for a digital drug-device that combines a pill for mental illness with an ingestible sensor. MIT scientists have introduced a “Band-Aid of the future� with temperature sensors, and tiny, drug-delivering reservoirs. To incorporate sensors into operations and decision-making: Monitor advances in sensor technology, especially capabilities beyond what can be measured today Watch out for use cases in other industries that could transform your own business in unexpected ways. Look for ways that data from new types of sensors could optimize or eliminate traditional business processes. Open up innovation by inviting employees, business partners, and customers to develop sensordriven innovation
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Digital Futures No. 13
Building Better Business Models When your business undergoes a digital transformation, it enters the exponential curve of growth and innovation. But when your customer base, competitors, go-to-market-strategies, and even your entire value proposition can change on a dime, what happens to your business model? Digital technologies may let you pursue your core business more successfully. They may also upend your preconceptions about what your core business really is — and the entire concept of what makes a winning business model.
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Also read “Reimagine Your Business Model for Exponential Change – 4 Steps”
Intangible assets make up 84 percent of the value of the S&P 500.
A third of large companies’ revenue will be threatened by digital disruption by 2020.
The average lifespan of a publicly traded company has dropped from 67 years in 1920 to 15 years today.
In ten years, 40 percent of the current Fortune 500 may no longer exist.
Three out of four current S&P 500 firms will be replaced by new ones by 2027. Link to Sources
Redefining The Business Model
A business model used to be a structured blueprint for an organization to follow in order to succeed at its core business. It was a set of static assumptions about who your customers are, what you offer them, how your offerings deliver value to your customers, what it costs you to create those offerings, and how you generate and sustain profit. Today, companies must prepare to iterate rapidly through different business models, or follow several simultaneously.
New Truths For The Digital Era Exponential technologies like machine learning, sensors, and drones have expanded far beyond what was possible even a few years ago, enabling radical redesign of highly complex processes. New technologies have so accelerated productivity that skills and tools your company invested heavily to acquire are now available for almost free.
Sensors that monitor devices and systems will drive down maintenance costs — and also threaten business models based on replenishment/replacement cycles. Customers often find the speed and efficiency of automated customer service more satisfying than human interactions Your data may be more valuable than all your company’s physical investments combined.
Treating the Individual
Create
Focus
Balance
Invest
alternative scenarios of the future and work backwards to determine how to reach them.
on continuous change rather than continuous improvement. Make change itself a central pillar of your business model.
short-term (a year or less) and long-term (five to ten years) planning.
in digital platforms that can simulate multiple business models and form new business entities at high speed and large scale.
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Building Better Business Models
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Digital Futures No. 14
Super Materials: Building the Impossible Foldable screens for mobile devices, clothing that conducts electricity or kills germs, invisibility cloaks — things that seem to defy the laws of nature are becoming real and tangible. They’re part of the “super materials” revolution, our emerging ability to engineer materials at the molecular and even the atomic level. And they will transform our world in ways we’re just beginning to imagine. But how much new sensor data do we need?
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Also read “The Super Material Revolution”
Graphene is only one atom thick yet up to 300 times stronger than steel.
A graphene-based battery may offer electric cars a driving range of 500 miles.
Researchers have developed cotton-blend nanomaterials that kill bacteria and conduct electricity.
Super materials could make solar cells up to 1,000 times more efficient.
Scientists have created a metamaterial that makes whatever it covers invisible.
Link to Sources
A Universe of Possibilities
In 2015, IBM achieved a breakthrough in carbon nanotubes that will enable exponentially greater power at equally tiny scale. Eventually, we may end up with microscopic processors that are literally “smart dust.” Making the Materials of Tomorrow At least 13 conferences on graphene, 2D substances, and nanotechnology are scheduled for 2016. The European Commission created Graphene Flagship, Europe’s largest-ever research initiative, to bring graphene into the mainstream by 2026. The Materials Genome Initiative is a U.S. government project to predict properties of millions of possible combinations of periodic table elements.
Super materials will make exponential technologies — like sensors, drones, 3D printing, and ultra high-power computing — even more powerful, using fewer resources. Retrofitting for the future However, business and academia can’t abandon the trillions of dollars invested in silicon and other existing materials. Factories, laboratories, and production lines must be retooled so super materials and traditional materials can coexist.
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Super Materials: Building the Impossible
Amazing applications will emerge from super materials. Researchers are already working on: Bendable, highly conductive display screens Bulletproof clothing Flexible solar cells for everything from windows to tents Synthetic materials that mimic organic ones, like skin and muscles Water desalinization using up to 50% less energy Gel that improves communication between injured nerve cells Hyper-efficient batteries that store and deliver power at grid scale Nanomaterials that fold like origami at a microscopic level to change size, shape, and rigidity
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Digital Futures No. 15
Computing After Silicon Silicon-based transistors have become microscopic and so costly to produce that the semiconductor industry can no longer predict that performance will double every two years. Yet that doesn’t mean the end of exponential improvements in computing power. From new materials for chips to new ways of defining computing itself, the next era of technological evolution has started.
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Also read “7 Surprising Innovations for the Future of Computing”
Graphene circuits will shrink to 5 nanometers 2,000 times smaller than a human hair.
Quantum computers will be exponentially faster than those we now use.
Swedish scientists have built a computer from nanoscopic protein particles.
A teaspoon of synthetic DNA could store all the data in the world.
Passive Wi-Fi uses 10,000 times less power than 802.11a/b/g/n. Link to Sources
The Limits of Silicon
In early 2016, the semiconductor industry stopped assuming its R&D departments could keep doubling microprocessor power every two years. Chips have become so small and complex, requiring such costly tools and processes, that maintaining such a pace is no longer financially feasible. If transistors get any smaller, they may no longer abide predictably by the usual laws of physics.
New Truths For The Digital Era In-memory computing, which keeps all data in RAM to accelerate processing, can drive astonishing performance improvements while using existing chips. Chips based on the superconducting nanomaterial graphene may move more electrons faster in less space, possibly extending Moore’s Law for microprocessors for several years. Quantum computers will use quantum bits, or qubits, which can be a zero, a one, both, neither, or something in between, al at once. This will make them millions of times faster than conventional computers in specific applications.
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Computing After Silicon
Biocomputers made of protein molecules could perform high speed parallel calculations faster than conventional electrical computers while being cheaper to produce and use. Synthetic DNA may hold zettabytes of data in highly stable, easily readable, long-term storage. Neuromorphic chips would work like the human brain processing and learning from data as quickly as it’s generated. Passive Wi-Fi could use 10,000 times less power than current methods and drive exponential growth in connected compute power.
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Digital Futures No. 16
Gene Editing: Big Science, Big Business Scientists have possessed techniques to edit human DNA for more than a decade. Until recently, however, those processes were imprecise and inefficient. Then along came CRISPR/Cas9, a naturally occurring immune system found in bacteria that—in a biological version of cut-and-paste—enables more efficient, effective genome editing. The approach is already showing promise and could have a broad, profound impact.
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Also read “(Re)Programming Life”
The gene-editing market is expected to reach US$3.5 billion by 2019 and has a range of applications.
Gene editing may be used to treat chronic diseases and address human organ shortages.
Scientists are using CRISPR to create a population of mosquitoes resistant to malaria.
DuPont is growing edited corn and wheat plants to resist drought and improve yields.
Novartis is working with gene-editing startups on research tools for drug discovery. Link to Sources
Micro + Macro = Insight
Gene editing could enable companies to create new lines of revenue and protect existing ones, but these powerful capabilities present risks. Gene editing may impact not only the edited organism but the world around it, as well. For example, how might a genetically edited mosquito population impact the rest of the ecosystem?
Genomics technology isn’t advancing in isolation
A Designer Future? Where might these advances lead? There are three possible scenarios. Limited, regulated usage: We would fix molecular flaws in only very specific contexts. We might use gene editing to create some designer plants to cope with climate change or eliminate diseases, but they must be highly regulated. A hybrid approach: Broader acceptance of complex gene editing would allow professionals to significantly alter the natural world (editing known life forms, designing new ones), resulting in more regulations and ethical controversy. Wide acceptance: In a world where genomics technology is democratized and widely accepted, gene editing would face little restriction. Sensorgenerated data and analytics would be employed to manage and monitor the impact.
By linking biological information with sensor-facilitated data, companies could develop a deeper understanding of environmental systems at the macro level. Researchers are developing chip-scale sensors that can be placed unobtrusively in the environment. The data could be used to measure the impact of changes at the molecular level on larger ecosystems and vice versa. Beyond gene tracking To extract the most value from new genomics capabilities, we’ll need to: Digitize existing biological, paleontological, and geological collections to make them more easily accessible. Deploy sensors and analytic to scan the environment and gather critical data on our ecosystems. Explore the changes we might see with gene editing by simulating the outcomes on a macro scale.
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Gene Editing: Big Science, Big Business
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Digital Futures No. 17
A New Paradigm for the Insurance Industry Figuring out what customers want can be a fruitless exercise. Traditional methods often leave companies guessing at real desires, and mass customization is complex and expensive for many products. But what would happen if customers could design and produce their own products? The maker movement is growing up quickly. Individuals and startups increasingly bypass traditional industry to produce bespoke goods on their own. As 3D printing technology accelerates, hackerspaces are democratizing high-end production tools. And with new crowdfunding and online retail options, control over product development and production will return to the individual.
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Also read “Digital Insurance: Partnering for the Game of Life�
The number of internetconnected devices and sensors will grow to 50 billion by 2020. There will be 200 billion internetconnected things by 2030.
The speed of analytics will intensify thirtyfold by 2030, with 95% of queries answered in milliseconds, according to SAP estimates.
Smartphone penetration will surge from 8% in 2010 to 65% in 2020. Mobile phone subscription rates are already at 96%.
By 2020, the digital data universe will grow to 44 zettabytes, with 37% of it analyzable. 237.1 million wearable devices will be shipped.
The enterprise artificial intelligence market will increase from US$202.5 million in 2015 to $11.1 billion by 2024. Link to Sources
Partners In The Game of Life
Traditional insurers interact with customers less than one percent of the time – when the product is purchased or a claim is submitted. They should use the other 99% to build relationships by: Increasing customer touch points, thus shifting focus from paying for a loss to helping customers live better lives Using detailed data to deliver customized risk management tools to customers
Lessons From The Outside The automotive industry lets customers configure cars to simplify buying a complex customized product. Retailers are mastering omnichannel and real-time analytics to deliver the right product to the right customer at the right time. Banks are expanding beyond account management to offer services like financial management.
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Offering discounted products and services, through partners, that improve customer risk profiles
Using the growing sensor ecosystem to expand usageand oucome-based pricing
Delivering context-based offers and simpler, more effective insurance products through predictive analytics
Exploring entirely new categories, like microinsurance and peer-to-peer offerings
Digital Upstarts
Legacy Innovators
New York-based Lemonade will offer peer-to-peer property and casualty insurance and recently hired a chief behavioral officer and expert in motivating people.
State Farm Insurance contracts with ADT to offer homeowners insurance customers discounts on smart home security systems that measure in-home risk.
Sure will provide “episodic” accident, life, property, causalty, and warranty policies, like flight insurance from takeoff to landing.
AXA is partnering with Samsung on a connected-car ecosystem to encourage safer driving and help consumers lower insurance rates.
Australia’s mobile insurance platform Trōv sells specific products (a new bike or digital camera) for selected durations and plans to launch in the United States in 2017.
American International Group (AIG) is investing in algorithms and wearable devices to predict injuries in high-risk settings like oil rigs and construction sites.
A New Paradigm for the Insurance Industry
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Digital Futures No. 18
Making the Next Moves with Blockchain Blockchain technology has become extremely influential extremely quickly. Conceived in 2008, Blockchain has now been designated a “mega-trend” by the World Economic Forum. Blockchain is both a novel architecture for business and a foundation for a new generation of transactional applications. It’s relevant to all industries and to any transactions that must be secure and verifiable. But where should organizations start?
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Also read “Making the Next Moves with Blockchain”
November 2015: Date Microsoft introduces Blockchain as a Service.
June 2016: Date IBM launches a blockchain lab for its developers.
20 seconds: The speed of a blockchainassisted international money transfer.
US $7.1 million: Series A funding for blockchain solutions provider Gem.
10%: The percentage of global GDP the World Economic Forum predicts could be stored on blockchains by 2027. Link to Sources
Emerging Use Cases
Companies need not wait for the perfect justification to investigate blockchain. Use cases are already emerging. Increasing process speed and transparency Improving supply chain efficiency and efficacy Facilitating business networks/exchanges Enhancing privacy – and allowing individuals to monetize personally identifying information Blockchain could give billions of people who lack access to the global economy the ability to perform financial transactions using only amobile device and a network connection
Propelling Business Models Forward
Where The Action Is Today
How could blockchain drive your business model forward? These questions will help you navigate:
Forward-thinking enterprises have blackchain experiments under way. These are just a few examples:
Which of your transactions require a specific sequence or timing of events?
German power company RWE is introducing blockchaindriven electric car charging stations.
Which of your records must be maintained without being changed, re-ordered, or deleted?
Philips Healthcare has established a lab to create blockchain applications for healthcare.
Where must information tobe transparent and publically accessible?
Infosys subsidiary EdgeVerve has launched a blockchain platform for banks.
Where can transaction transparency help build trust between participants?
Microsoft has created a project to support collaboration in the Blockchain as a Service community.
Will introducing blockchain to these areas increase efficiencies or improve your ability to scale?
Canadian bank ATB Financial, startup Ripple, and SAP are prototyping a blockchain application that shortens international money transfers from days to seconds. SAP is investigating blockchain use cases in healthcare, insurance, energy, media, agriculture, and other industries.
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Making the Next Moves with Blockchain
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Digital Futures No. 19
Speeding Toward a Driverless Future In just one year, self-driving cars have gone from theoretical to imminent. With governments issuing new rules about autonomous vehicles and major manufacturers leaping into development, big changes are coming down the road. And they’ll affect every kind of vehicle, from taxis and buses to delivery vans and long-haul trucks.
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Also read “Autonomous Vehicles: Accelerating into the Mainstream”
Uber paid US$680 million to acquire selfdriving truck startup Otto.
Autonomous vehicle technology must now pass a 15-point federal safety assessment.
The DOT has committed nearly $4 billion to developing safe vehicle automation.
Only 6 percent of US cities include self-driving vehicles in their long-term transportation plans.
The auto industry expects to put fully self-driving cars on the road by 2020.
Link to Sources
Detours On The Road To The Mainstream Technology. Autonomous vehicles can’t yet match the intricate choreography that human drivers perform every day. Security. Networked vehicles and their connected infrastructures must be secured against hackers like any other endpoint on the Internet of Things. Safety and ethics. Autonomous vehicles need to learn whose safety to prioritize when an accident is unavoidable. Infrastructure. Roads, parking structures, signage, and other infrastructure will require a thorough overhaul for cars controlled by sensors and algorithms. Habit and preference. Not everyone will be thrilled to hand over control of their driving.
Signs To Steer By
Shifting Into Gear Much of the functionality we can expect in tomorrow’s self-driving vehicles is present in many of today’s cars via advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Automated braking
Guided/automated parking
Blind spot monitors
Hill-descent controls
Back-up sensors
Lane-departure warnings
Collision avoidance
Lane-change assistance
Stability systems
Pedestrian-collision prevention
Adaptive cruise control
Traffic sign recognition
Traction control
Wrong-way driving warnings
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Speeding Toward a Driverless Future
Tesla is developing its autopilot technology to assist rather than replace drivers, while Google’s test vehicles seek to minimize human actions and maximize safety features. Traditional manufacturers including Toyota, BMW, Ford, and Nissan are racing to bring selfdriving cars to market by the end of the decade. SAP’s “connected car” initiatives, such as its vehicle insights app and vehicles network, will further advance autonomous vehicle technology.
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Digital Futures No. 20
Let’s Talk About Conversational Computing Billions of people a day use instant messaging apps to share bite-sized chunks of information—not just with each other but also with chatbots, digital assistants, and other apps that use natural language understanding. That’s creating a new paradigm for interacting with technology.
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Also read “A New Computing Paradigm: Conversational AI for Consumers and in the Enterprise”
The first chatbot, ELIZA, was created in 1966.
As of 2015, people were spending more time on messaging apps than social networks.
2.19 billion people will use mobile messaging apps by 2019.
Voice recognition technology is now about 95% accurate.
20% of companies already use digital personal assistants. Link to Sources
Texting Your Technology
Chatbots receive queries from users as text through existing messaging applications instead of requiring seperate apps. Basic chatbots use preprogrammed rules to perform an action, such as ordering a product or answering a question about a customer problem. More sophisticated ones use machine learning to comprehend input based on previously ingested data.
HanaHaus, an SAP-operated co-working space in Palo Alto, California, is piloting a chatbot that lets users make, extend, and cancel reservations for workspaces by sending an informally phrased SMS message like “I need a desk for two tomorrow afternoon.”
Using machine learning, the chatbot parses the message, requests any other information it needs, and confirms the reservation. All in a very frictionless manner.
Chatting With Chatbots
The Vanishing Interface
Current And Potential Use Cases
General purpose digital assistants like Apple’s Siri and dedicated smart devices like Google Home can understand casual conversational requests, interact with other services, and answer at least partly open-ended questions through a single, natural interface.
Eventually, most digital solutions will rely on natural language to communicate with, and learn from, users. We’ll just talk to our systems like they’re people.
Chatbots, digital personal assistants, and enterprise AI will make many services available in a frictionless, personal way:
By introducing deeper artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning capabilities, we will create solutions that can learn from interactions and context and continually refine their behavior, much as humans do
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Getting shopping advice
We’ll say what we need, and the smart systems behind the scenes will determine how to deliver it, whether that’s running reports, providing customer support, booking business travel, or configuring Internet of Things (IoT) devices.
Making an online purchase
The more we talk to our software, the smarter it will get. It will learn how we work and think, and it will adapt itself accordingly.
Configuring IoT devices
Let’s Talk About Conversational Computing
Reserving a conference room Approving workflows Booking complex travel arrangements Requesting the latest performance data
In general, these technologies will provide information proactively based on context and dynamic criteria. 41
Digital Futures No. 21
Rise of the Smart Machines Whether you’re an extreme athlete, a weekend warrior, or a dedicated couch potato, you’ve probably had at least one experience of being “in flow,” that hyperfocused state where you get so lost in what you’re doing that you hit peak performance. We’re finally beginning to understand the science behind the flow state — and to learn how to access it on demand. And that could be key to revolutionizing the workplace.
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Also read “Machine Learning: The Real Business Intelligence”
In 2016, the machine intelligence market garnered US$5 billion in venture capital investment.
By 2018, 45 percent of the fastest-growing companies will have more smart machines than employees.
Machine-learning technology will hit full mainstream adoption within the next two to five years.
The total machine learning market could reach $2 trillion within the next decade. Link to Sources
Machine Learning 101
Machine Learning is a subset of AI, a field that dates back to the 1950s, when computer scientists first discovered that computers might mimic human intelligence. Today, machine-learning capabilities are driven by: Increased data-processing power The availability of Big Data Ever-better algorithms
Real Business Intelligence
From Ones To Zeros To The ABC’s
Unlike the rules-driven software that was supposed to deliver business intelligence to the enterprise, self-learning systems will be able to deliver far more than more organized and visually appealing data and reports. Using statistical methods to improve the performance of systems over time will deliver true business intelligence by:
Machine learning—just like human learning—takes time. But unlike people, these learning engines can handle massive data volumes, run at increasing speeds, and operate continuously without rest.
Improving the core functionality of existing software and analytics Uncovering previously inaccessible insights hidden in large data sets and unstructured data formats Automating a number of tasks previously performed by employees (some beyond human capabilities)
The error rate in machine-learning—driven image recognition, for example, has fallen dramatically over just four years to nearly human performance levels. Each instance of machine learning is different; some skills will be harder to master than others. Making Way For Machine Learning Companies can pave the way for machine learning by: Evaluating data availability and structures. Machines will need vast amounts of relevant and reliable data, so business leaders must address data quality, gaps, and silos. Create physical spaces that minimize distraction while encouraging interaction, intellectual stimulation, and creativity. Provide employees with new ways to learn, train, and collaborate based on the latest research in the science of human performance..
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Rise of the Smart Machines
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Digital Futures No. 22
The Future of Cybersecurity: Trust as Competitive Advantage Accepted wisdom today is that there are two types of companies in the world: those that know they’ve been hacked and those that don’t. It’s not just a lift in cybersecurity spending that’s called for, however, but also a shift in thinking. Trust will be the most important currency in the digital future—trust that companies will have to earn and work diligently to keep.
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Also read “Securing Your Digital Future: Cyber Trust As Competitive Advantage”
The cost of data breaches will reach US$2.1 trillion globally by 2019—nearly four times the cost in 2015.
Cyberattacks could cost up to $90 trillion in net global economic benefits by 2030 if cybersecurity doesn’t keep pace with growing threat levels.
Companies are collaborating with a wider network of partners, embracing distributed systems, and meeting new demands for 24/7 operations.
Cyber insurance premiums could increase tenfold to $20 billion annually by 2025.
Link to Sources
The ROI of Zero Trust Perimeter security will not be enough. As interconnectivity increases so will the adoption of zero-trust networks, which place controls around data assets and increases visibility into how they are used across the digital ecosystem. A Layered Approach Companies that embrace trust as a competitive advantage will build robust security on three core tenets: Prevention: Evolving defensive strategies from security policies and educational approaches to access controls
But the bad guys are sharing intelligence, harnessing emerging technologies, and working round the clock as well—and companies are giving them plenty of weaknesses to exploit.
Detection: Deploying effective systems for the timely detection and notification of intrusions Reaction: Implementing incident response plans similar to those for other disaster recovery scenarios
33% of companies today are prepared to prevent a worst-case attack. 25% treat cyber risk as a significant corporate risk. 80% fail to assess their customers and suppliers for cyber risk.
Cyberattacks are one of the top 10 global risks of highest concern for the next decade.
They’ll build security into their digital ecosystems at three levels: 1. Secure products. Security in all applications to protect data and transactions 2. Secure operations. Hardened systems, patch management, security monitoring, end-to-end incident handling, and a comprehensive cloudoperations security framework 3. Secure companies. A security-aware workforce, end-to-end physical security, and a thorough business continuity framework Against Digital Armageddon Experts warn that the worst-case scenario is a state of perpetual cybercrime and cyber warfare, vulnerable critical infrastructure, and trillions of dollars in losses. A collaborative approach will be critical to combatting this persistent global threat with implications not just for corporate and personal data but also strategy, supply chains, products, and physical operations.
Digital Futures No. 22
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The Future of Cybersecurity: Trust as Competitive Advantage
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Digital Futures No. 23
Teaching Machines Right from Wrong Applying artificial intelligence (AI) to complex decisions has clear benefits. But it also increasingly means automating ethical choices that can alter human lives. The better machines get at finding and learning from patterns in Big Data, the more important it is to think critically about how and whether to use those patterns.
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Also read “AI and Ethics: We Will Live What Machines Learn�
By 2018, smart machines will supervise over 3 million workers worldwide.
21% of consumers in an FTC study had confirmed errors on their credit reports.
2014: the first annual Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Machine Learning conference.
A private university encouraged 20-25 students to drop out based on AI predictions of poor grades. Link to Sources
Real-world examples of misused AI algorithms abound. These are just a few: Women who weren’t pregnant — or weren’t ready to reveal it — received special offers of baby products and “congratulatory” messages. People with minority ethnic names received a disproportionate number of ads implying they had criminal records. Guests at a party learned a ride-hailing company kept track of customers who stayed out all night and went home in the wee hours.
Ethical-Edge Cases
What Should We Do About It?
Credit scoring algorithms designed to evaluate lending risk are now commonly used to gauge reliability and trustworthiness, determining whether someone should get a job or apartment.
All machine learning contains assumptions and biases of the humans who create it — unconscious or otherwise. To ensure fairness, business leaders must insist that AI be built on a strong ethical foundation.
Insurance underwriting algorithms determine the extent, price, and type of coverage someone can get, with little room for disagreement.
We can:
Healthcare algorithms could be used to penalize the currently healthy for their probability of future illness. Algorithms often use zip codes as proxy for (illegal) racial profiling in major decisions, such as employment and law enforcement. Self-driving cars will have to learn how to react in an accident situation when every possible outcome is bad.
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Teaching Machines Right from Wrong
Monitor algorithms for neutrality and positive outcomes. Support academic research into making AI-driven decisions more fair, accountable, and transparent. Create human-driven overrides, grievance procedures, and anti-bias laws. Include ethics education in all employee training and development. Above all, we must consider this a human issue, not a technological one. AI is only as unbiased a tool as we make it. It’s our responsibility to keep it on the ethical straight and narrow.
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Digital Futures No. 24
Taking Learning Back to School The digital economy has transformed the workplace in less than two decades, but our basic approach to learning has barely changed since the industrial revolution. To keep the world’s workforce skilled and relevant in the face of massive change, our current systems of learning need to skip a grade or two.
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Also read “The Future of Learning: Keeping Up with the Digital Economy”
Denmark spends most GDP on labor market programs at 3.3%.
The U.S. spends only 0.1% of it’s GDP on adult education and workforce retraining.
The number of postsecondary vocational and training institutions in China more than doubled from 2000 to 2014.
47% of U.S. jobs are at risk for automation.
Link to Sources
Our overarching approach to education is top down, inflexible, and front loaded in life, and does not encourage collaboration. Smartphone apps that gamify learning or deliver lessons in small bits of free time can be effective tools for teaching. However, they don’t address the more pressing issue that the future is digital and those whose skills are outmoded will be left behind. Many companies have a history of effective partnerships with local schools to expand their talent pool, but these efforts are not designed to change overall systems of learning.
The Question We Must Answer What will we do when digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence eject vast numbers of people from their current jobs, and they lack the skills needed to find new ones? Solutions could include: National and multinational adult education programs Greater investment in technical and vocational schools Increased emphasis on apprenticeships Tax incentives for initiatives proven to close skills gaps
Digital Futures No. 24
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Taking Learning Back to School
We need a broad, systemic approach that breaks businesses, schools, governments, and other organizations that target adult learners out of their silos so they can work together. Chief learning officers (CLOs) can spearhead this approach by working together to create goals, benchmarks, and strategy. Advancing the field of learning will help every business compete in an increasingly global economy with a tight market for skills. More than this, it will mitigate the workplace risks and challenges inherent in the digital economy, thus positively influencing the future of business itself.
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Digital Futures No. 25
Running Future Cities on Blockchain Distributed ledgers, smart contracts, and other blockchain technologies embed integrity and provenance in every digital asset and transaction. That could make blockchain the ideal foundation on which to combine and scale other exponential technologies — with revolutionary results for cities and the entire economy.
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Also read “Pulling Cities into the Future with Blockchain”
Some experts say these seemingly farfuture speculations about combining technologies using blockchain are both inevitable and imminent: Democratizing design and manufacturing by enabling individuals and small businesses to buy, sell, share, and digitally remix products affordably while protecting intellectual property rights
Decentralizing warehousing and logistics by combining autonomous vehicles, 3D printers, and smart contracts to optimize delivery of products and materials and even to create them on site as needed
Welcome to the Next Industrial Revolution
The City of the Future Imagine that every agency, building, office, residence, and piece of infrastructure has an entry on a blockchain used as a city’s digital ledger. This “digital twin” could transform the delivery of city services. For example: • Property owners could easily monetize assets by renting rooms, selling solar power back to the grid, and more. • Utilities could use customer data and artificial intelligence (AI) to make energy-saving recommendations and smart contracts to automatically adjust power usage for greater efficiency.
Digital Futures No. 25
Distributing commerce by mixing virtual reality, 3D scanning and printing, selfdriving vehicles, and artificial intelligence into immersive, personalized, on-demand shopping experiences that still protect buyers’ personal and proprietary data
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• Embedded sensors could sense problems (like a water main break) and alert an AI to send a technician with the right parts, tools, and training. • Autonomous vehicles could route themselves to open parking spaces or charging stations and pay for services safely and automatically. • Cities could improve traffic monitoring and routing, saving commuters’ time and fuel while increasing productivity. Every interaction would be transparent and verifiable, providing more data to analyze for future improvements.
Running Future Cities on Blockchain
When exponential technologies intersect and combine, transformation happens on a massive scale. It’s time to start thinking through outcomes in a disciplined, proactive way to prepare for a future we’re only just beginning to imagine.
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Digital Futures No. 26
The Future Will Be Co-Created Customer experiences know no boundaries. They cross devices, channels, businesses—even industries. Companies that seek to transform around the customer must look beyond those traditional barriers and create or join new ecosystems, disrupting their business models before they are disrupted.
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Also read “The Future Belongs to Industry-Busting Ecosystems”
Just 3% of companies have completed enterprise digital transformation projects.
92% of those companies have significantly improved or transformed customer engagement.
81% of business executives say platforms will reshape industries into interconnected ecosystems.
More than half of large enterprises (80% of the Global 500) will join industry platforms by 2018.
Link to Sources Redefining Customer Experience
A Network Effect
Many business leaders think of the customer journey or experience as the interaction an individual or business has with their firm.
Rather than go it alone, companies will develop deep collaborative relationships across industries—even with their customers—to create powerful ecosystems that multiply the breadth and depth of the products, services, and experiences they can deliver. Digital native companies like Baidu and Uber have embraced ecosystem thinking from their early days. But forward-looking legacy companies are beginning to take the approach.
But the business value of the future will exist in the much broader, end-toend experiences of a customer—the experience of travel, for example, or healthcare management or mobility. Individual companies alone, even with their existing supplier networks, lack the capacity to transform these comprehensive experiences.
Solutions could include: Packaging provider WEIG has integrated partners into production with customers co-inventing custom materials. China’s Ping An Insurance Company is aggressively expanding beyond its sector with a digital platform to help customers manage their healthcare experience. British roadside assistance provider RAC is delivering a predictive breakdown service for drivers by acquiring and partnering with high-tech companies.
Is Your Ecosystem Ready for the Future? Abandoning long-held notions of business-value creation in favor of an ecosystem approach requires new tactics and strategies. Companies can:
1. Dispassionately map the end-to-end customer experience, including those pieces outside company control.
2. Employ future-planning tactics, such as scenario planning, to examine how that experience might evolve.
3. Identify organizations in that experience ecosystem with whom you might co-innovate.
4. Embrace technologies that foster secure collaboration and joint
innovation around delivery of experiences, such as cloud computing, application programming interfaces, and microservices.
5. Hire, train for, and reward creativity, innovation, and customer centricity. Evolve or Be Commoditized Some companies will remain in their traditional industry boxes, churning out products and services in isolation. But they will be commodity players reaping commensurate returns. Companies that want to remain competitive will seek out their new ecosystem or get left out in the cold.
Digital Futures No. 26
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The Future Will Be Co-Created
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Digital Futures No. 27
Sensors: Tiny Engines of the Digital Revolution As sensors become ever smaller, they will be absorbed into the world around us (and inside us), allowing everything to be measured and manipulated. And that will make them a powerful force in the future of business and society. Sensors have already shifted some disease treatments to proactive, real-time monitoring to treat symptoms before they become life threatening. Similarly, customers will no longer accept products that break down; they will demand proactive repair or replacement. Dramatic changes in sensor technology are driving these shifts.
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Also read “The Tiny Engines Driving The Digital Revolution�
Sensors will shrink to 50 micrometers (half the size of a human red blood cell).
Sensors will harvest energy from external sources, such as vibrations or electromagnetic radiation.
Sensors will super-power our senses and create new ones, such as ESP.
Sensors in autonomous vehicles will generate 1 GB of data per second. Link to Sources
Self-sustainer
World mover
Smart dust
As sensors become smaller, they can be self-sustaining, enabling them to be used just about anywhere. Prototype sensors grab energy from radio waves in the air or from vibrations as minor as touching a table with your fingers.
Beyond merely sensing their surroundings, sensors are actively affecting them. An experimental sensor is small enough to be swallowed but so powerful that it not only monitors fat levels in obese patients but also automatically releases medication that gives patients a sense of fullness and dissuades them from eating.
Eventually, sensors will become so small that they can be implanted at the cellular level, such as inside brain cells to control movement of a prosthetic arm. Already, there is a compound that can be painted on almost any surface and will harden into a sensor that can function in the tightest, dirtiest, hottest places.
Super senses
Data monsters
New measures of market success
Sensors will help us experience a reality well beyond that defined by our evolution, such as using echolocation like bats. Sensors could also give us entirely new abilities that are not in nature, such as extrasensory perception, or let us swap in ultraviolet, infrared, and night vision to meet our individual needs at any given time.
Sensors will generate so much data that computing power will move to the edge to manage the load. Autonomous vehicles already carry their own small data centers and process about 1 GB of data per second.
In a world that senses everyone and everything all the time, we will need new ways of thinking about how to succeed in the market. The opportunities for differentiation will become increasingly fine-grained. The way we think of competitive advantage will change. It will be a new era of real-time business.
Digital Futures No. 27
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Sensors: Tiny Engines of the Digital Revolution
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Digital Futures No. 28
Diving Deep Into Digital Experiences As machine learning and artificial intelligence become more sophisticated, digital experiences will become increasingly multisensory and more convincingly “real.” Forward-thinking businesses will be able to use them to deliver information in new and compelling ways.
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Also read “Swimming in the Immersive Digital Experience”
Google Cardboard VR goggles cost US$8
By 2019, immersive solutions will be adopted in 20% of enterprise businesses
By 2025, the market for immersive hardware and software technology could be $182 billion
In 2017, Lowe’s launched Holoroom How To VR DIY clinics
Link to Sources From Dipping a Toe to Fully Immersed
The first wave of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) is here, using smartphones, glasses, and goggles to place us in the middle of 360-degree digital environments or overlay digital artifacts on the physical world. Prototypes, pilot projects, and first movers have already emerged: Guiding warehouse pickers, cargo loaders, and truck drivers with AR Overlaying constantly updated blueprints, measurements, and other construction data on building sites in real time with AR Building 3D machine prototypes in VR for virtual testing and maintenance planning Exhibiting new appliances and fixtures in a VR mockup of the customer’s home Teaching medicine with AR tools that overlay diagnostics and instructions on patients’ bodies
A Vast Sea of Possibilities
The Truly Digital Workplace
What Is Immersion?
Immersive technologies leapt forward in spring 2017 with the introduction of three new products:
New immersive experiences won’t simply be new tools for existing tasks. They promise to create entirely new ways of working.
A completely immersive experience that’s indistinguishable from real life is impossible given the current constraints on power, throughput, and battery life.
VR avatars that look and sound like their owners will soon be able to meet in realistic virtual meeting spaces without requiring users to leave their desks or even their homes. With enough computing power and a smart-enough AI, we could soon let VR avatars act as our proxies while we’re doing other things— and (theoretically) do it well enough that no one can tell the difference.
To make current digital experiences more convincing, we’ll need interactive sensors in objects and materials, more powerful infrastructure to create realistic images, and smarter interfaces to interpret and interact with data.
Nvidia’s Project Holodeck, which generates shared photorealistic VR environments A cloud-based platform for industrial AR from Lenovo New Vision AR and Wikitude A workspace and headset from Meta that lets users use their hands to interact with AR artifacts
Digital Futures No. 28 |
We’ll need a way to signal when an avatar is being human driven in real time, when it’s on autopilot, and when it’s owned by a bot.
Diving Deep Into Digital Experiences
When everything around us is intelligent and interactive, every environment could have an AR overlay or VR presence, with use cases ranging from gaming to firefighting. We could see a backlash touting the superiority of the unmediated physical world—but multisensory immersive experiences that we can navigate in 360-degree space will change what we consider “real.” 57
Digital Futures No. 29
Human Skills for the Digital Future Artificial intelligence is getting better at solving increasingly complex problems. If we want to retain humanity’s value in an increasingly automated world, we need to start recognizing and nurturing skills that are uniquely human.
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Also read “The Human Factor in an AI Future�
Technology Evolves. So Must We.
Technology replacing human effort is as old as the first stone axe, and so is the disruption it creates.
Thanks to deep learning and other advances in AI, machine learning is catching up to the human mind faster than expected.
How do we maintain our value in a world in which AI can perform many high-value tasks?
Uniquely Human Abilities
There’s Nothing Soft About “Soft Skills”
AI is excellent at automating routine knowledge work and generating new insights from existing data — but humans know what they don’t know.
To stay ahead of AI in an increasingly automated world, we need to start cultivating our most human abilities on a societal level. There’s nothing soft about these skills, and we can’t afford to leave them to chance.
We deduce the existence of information we don’t yet know about.
We must revamp how and what we teach to nurture the critical skills of passion, curiosity, imagination, creativity, critical thinking, and persistence. In the era of AI, no one will be able to thrive without these abilities, and most people will need help acquiring and improving them.
We imagine radical new business models, products, and opportunities.
Anything artificial intelligence does has to fit into a human-centered value system that takes our unique abilities into account. While we help AI get more powerful, we need to get better at being human.
We’re driven to explore, try new and risky things, and make a difference.
We have creativity, imagination, humor, ethics, persistence, and critical thinking.
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Human Skills for the Digital Future
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Digital Futures No. 30
Next-Gen Batteries Will Define Our Future Renewable energy is finally becoming competitive, but utilities can’t adjust the sun and wind to meet grid-scale demand. New ways to store energy and move it to where it’s needed will be key to unlocking a bright and sustainable future.
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Also read “How Future Batteries Could Save Civilization”
$480 million: venture investments in battery R&D in first half of 2017
8 minutes: amount of time to charge Toyota’s experimental solid state battery
30,000: number of homes to be powered by world’s largest lithium-ion battery array
200,000: number of charges experimental gold nanowires can take without losing capacity
Link to Sources
New Approaches to Energy Storage Standard rechargeable lithium-ion batteries are made with cobalt. They’re small, light, and long-lasting, but they can’t store power at grid scale.
Watch for these emerging alternatives: Graphene, a one-atom-thick form of graphite, conducts energy faster and more efficiently than any other known material. Sodium, in a form similar to table salt, is cheap and plentiful. Sulphur and oxygen, combined with lithium, can each store two to three times more power than cobalt. Solid state batteries contain no liquid, so could function in extreme temperatures. Also at early stages of development are batteries 3-D printed from copper foam, a wearable nanofilm that captures energy from body motion, a phone that charges itself using ambient sound, and even an electric “supercar” that stores energy in its carbon nanotube body panels.
A World Built on Batteries The energy storage revolution isn’t merely about charging your phone faster or extending the range of your electric car. It’s about enabling a society-wide transformation in which renewable energy can be generated sustainably, stored at scale, and distributed consistently and reliably at all hours, under all conditions. The batteries we develop today will create jobs, support circular business models, reduce pollution, and make the power grid more resilient. That will accelerate the shift to a post-fossil fuel economy while making the transition less disruptive.
Digital Futures No. 30
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Next-Gen Batteries Will Define Our Future
Scientists say we have just a few more years to mitigate manmade climate change before reaching the tipping point into an extremely unpleasant future. Tomorrow’s energy storage may actually assure our future civilization.
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Sources Issue No. 01
Issue No. 03
In six years Airbnb grew to one of world’s largest hotel companies. Without owning any hotels. “Airbnb Catching Chains in Bookings,” accommnews, January 21, 2015, http://www.accomnews.com/industry/154- news-in-brief/4733-airbnbcatching-chains-in-bookings
The first GPS receiver weighed 50 pounds and cost more than US$100,000. Today, a 0.3-gram GPS chip costs less than US$5. Peter Diamandis, “Top 10 Reasons Drones Are Disruptive,” Forbes.com, August 11, 2014, http://www.forbes. com/sites/peterdiamandis/2014/08/11/top-10-reasons-drones-are-disruptive/
The cost of sequencing a DNA genome is outpacing Moore’s Law. It could be as low as US$0.01 by 2020 Antonio Regalado, “EmTech: Illumina Says 228,000 Human Genomes Will Be Sequenced This Year,” MIT Technology Review, September 24, 2014, https://www.technologyreview.com/news/531091/emtech-illumina-says228000-human-genomes-will- be-sequenced-this-year/
The global market for commercial drones will rise from US$15.22M in 2014 to US$1.27B in 2020. This is a tripling every 18 months – faster than even Moore’s Law. UAV Drone Market for Commercial Worth $1.27 Billion by 2020, MarketsandMarkets, February, 2015, http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/ PressReleases/commercial-drones.asp
James Bannon, “Heading for $100: The Declining Costs of Genome Sequencing & the Consequences,” (Ark Invest, 2014), http://ark-invest.com/genomic-revolution/ declining-costs-of-genome-sequencing
800 million people worldwide have limited access to emergency services due to weak transportation infrastructure. J.M. Ledgard and Scott MacMillan, “Drones for Development,” Project Syndicate, June 5, 2015, http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/drones-africa-development-by-j-m-ledgard-and-scottmacmillan-2015-06
Art Wuster, “Is It Cheaper to Re-sequence a Genome Than to Save It in Computer Memory? Seqonomics, December 9, 2011, http://seqonomics.blogspot. com/2011/12/is-it-cheaper-to-re-sequence-genome.html 10M autonomous new vehicles per year could be driving on U.S. roads by 2030. “Half of New Vehicles Shipping in North America to Have Driverless, Robotic Capabilities by 2032” (press release), ABI Research, August 27, 2013, https://www. abiresearch.com/press/half-of-new-vehicles- shipping-in-north-america-to-/ In 2000 starting an Internet company cost US$5M. Today it’s less than US$5,000. Peter Diamandis, “Evidence of Abundance #16: 1,000 Times Cheaper to Launch a Startup, 2014,” Huffington Post, October 30, 2014, http://www. huffingtonpost.com/peter-diamandis/evidence-of-abundance-16_b_5915712.html Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar slashed 65% of San Francisco taxi rides in only 15 months. Jessica Kwong, “Report Says SF Taxis Suffering Greatly,” The Examiner, September 16, 2014, http://archives.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/report-says-sftaxis-suffering-greatly/Content?oid=2899618 47% of U.S. employees are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence within 10 years. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_ of_Employment.pdf
Cargo drones could turbocharge economic development in Africa, where only 16% of roads are paved. J. M. Ledgard, “Better Use of the Lower Sky in a Sharing Economy,” Medium, September 23, 2014, https://medium.com/@eternaut/buildcargo-drones-get-rich-9b858dffaba Solar-powered drones will provide Internet, Wi-Fi, and telecom services to people in remote places on earth. Thomas Frey, “Engineering the Secret Engines of Off-Grid Living,” Futurist Speaker, June 24, 2015, http://www.futuristspeaker. com/2015/06/engineering-the-secret-engines-of-off-grid-living/
Issue No. 04 The 3D printing market will quadruple to US$12 billion by 2025. “3D Printing Market to Quadruple to $12 Billion in 2025” [press release], Lux Research, April 29, 2014, http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/3dprinting-market-quadruple-12-billion-2025 In 2006 the San Francisco MakerFaire attracted 65,000 enthusiasts. Last year 130,000 attended, and another 85,000 attended in New York. Maker Faire: A Bit of History,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11, 2015, http://makerfaire. com/makerfairehistory/
Issue No. 02
“Media Kit & Press Resources,” MakerFaire.com, accessed August 11, 2015, http:// makerfaire.com/media-kit-press-resources/
The cost of adding self-driving technology to a vehicle: US$8K−$10K and dropping. Alex Davies, “Turns Out the Hardware in Self-Driving Cars Is Pretty Cheap,” WIRED.com, April 22, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensorsautonomous-cars/?mbid=social_twitter
Today, there are 1,100 hackerspaces around the world giving people access to production tools once available only to corporations. “List of Hacker Spaces,” hackerpaces.org, accessed August 11, 2015, https://wiki.hackerspaces.org/List_of_ Hacker_Spaces
Average savings in the U.S. alone: $1.3 trillion – 8% of the U.S. GDP. Autonomous Cars: Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm, Morgan Stanley Research, November 6, 2013, http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/ PDFs/Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUSCARS%EF%BC%9A-SELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
Peer-to-peer e-commerce site Etsy’s revenue nearly quadrupled in only 4 years − from US$525 million in 2011 to US$1.9 billion in 2014. Ruth Reader, “Etsy Starts Trading on the Nasdaq at $31 per Share — Nearly Double Its Original Price,” VentureBeat, April 16, 2015, http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/16/etsy-startstrading-on-the-nasdaq-at-31-per-share-nearly-double-its-original-price/
The 1.2 billion cars on the roads are used just 4% of the time. That’s 8.2 trillion hours of nonuse per year. Andrew Simonetti, “The Futurist – Uber, Take the Wheel,” The Daily, April 13, 2015, http://www.dailyuw.com/opinion/article_a3911e4ae244-11e4-a1f7-8fbb1ff20a33.html
Crowdfunding campaigns generated US$11.08 billion in 2014. The market will grow to US$93 billion by 2025. Katie Kuehner-Hebert, “Crowdfunding Volumes Grow to $16B”, CFO.com, April 2, 2015, http://ww2.cfo.com/credit-capital/2015/04/ crowdfunding-volumes-grow-16b/
2020: fully autonomous cars arrive in dealerships. “Everyone Will Have SelfDriving Car By 2026, Analyst Says,” The Huffington Post – Tech, February 28, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/27/morgan-stanley-autonomous-carsprediction_n_4867613.html
Crowdfunding’s Potential for the Developing World (Washington, DC: infoDev, Finance and Private Sector Development Department, The World Bank, 2013), http:// www.infodev.org/infodev-files/wb_crowdfundingreport-v12.pdf
Software will make up as much as 40% of a car’s value. Autonomous Cars: Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm, Morgan Stanley Research, November 6, 2013, http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/ Nov2013MORGAN-STANLEY-BLUE-PAPER-AUTONOMOUS-CARS%EF%BC%9ASELF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
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Issue No. 05
Issue No. 07
The Bitcoin blockchain — the digital ledger of transactions — is growing exponentially, and doubled to 40GB from August 2014 to August 2015. Blockchain.info, Blockchain Size graph, https://blockchain.info/charts/blockssize?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_ header=true&scale=0&address=
1999: “White hat” hackers predict the dangers of ubiquitous networking. Craig Timber, “Net of Insecurity: A Disaster Foretold – And Ignored,” The Washington Post, June 22, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2015/06/22/ net-of-insecurity-part-3/
As of August 2015, the Bitcoin blockchain was already solving nearly 400 billion complex mathematical equations per second. Blockchain.info, Hash Rate graph, https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate The first worldwide conference on applying blockchain technology was held on May 28, 2015. The Block Chain Summit, http://www.blockchainsummit.io/ Honduras began creating land titles based on blockchain technology in May 2015. Gertrude Chavez-Freyfuss, “Honduras to build land title registry using bitcoin technology”, Reuters, May 15th, 2015, http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/usahonduras-technology-idINKBN0O01V720150515 Visa, the world’s largest payment network, is launching a blockchain technology development team to bring secure digital finance to unbanked consumers. Giulio Prisco, “Visa to Deploy Blockchain Research Team in Bangalore, India”, Bitcoin Magazine, August 12th, 2015, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21547/ visa-deploy-blockchain-research-team-bangalore-india/
2012: New Internet Protocol allows 78 octillion Internet addresses—1 trillion for every grain of sand on earth. Kai Ryssdal, “We Have Some Catching Up to Do on Cyber-Security,” Marketplace, February 20, 2015, http://www.marketplace.org/ topics/tech/big-book/we-have-some-catching-do-cyber-security January 2014: Security pros uncover a spambot network of more than 100,000 smart devices, including a refrigerator. Michelle Starr, “Fridge Caught Sending Spam Emails in Botnet Attack,” C|NET, July 19, 2014, http://www.cnet.com/ news/fridge-caught-sending-spam-emails-in-botnet-attack/ July 2015: Hackers prove they can remotely highjack a car. Andy Greenberg, “Hackers Remotely Kill a Jeep on the Highway—with Me in It,” Wired, July 21, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/ September 2015: Researchers find potential vulnerabilities in 68,000 medical devices. “Medical Devices Vulnerable to Hackers,” BBC News, September 29, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34390165
Issue No. 08
Issue No. 06 The robotics market will grow 9.5% per year to US$66.9B by 2025. Military and industrial uses will be 60% of the total ($US41B). Commercial and personal uses will grow even faster. Alison Sander and Meldon Wolfgang, “The Rise of Robotics”, bcg.perspectives, August 27, 2014, https://www.bcgperspectives. com/content/articles/business_unit_strategy_innovation_rise_of_robotics/# The number of Internet of Things sensors will grow from 14.8B in 2015 to 50B by 2020. “Connections Counter: The Internet of Everything in Motion,” The Network, July 29, 2013, http://newsroom.cisco.com/featurecontent?ype=webcontent&articleId=1208342 There will be 200B Internet-connected things in 2030. “A Guide to the Internet of Things”, Intel Corp., accessed September 3, 2015, http://www.intel.com/content/ www/us/en/internet-of-things/infographics/guide-to-iot.html Image, speech, and voice recognition are advancing quickly and may soon surpass human abilities. John Markoff, “Researchers Announce Advance in Image-Recognition Software,” The New York Times, November 17, 2014, http://www. nytimes.com/2014/11/18/science/researchers-announce-breakthrough-in-contentrecognition-software.html?_r=1 “The Revolutionary Technique That Quietly Changed Machine Vision Forever,” MIT Technology Review, September 9, 2014, http://www.technologyreview.com/ view/530561/the-revolutionary-technique-that-quietly-changed-machine-visionforever/
TV weather reports adopted the first application of AR on TV in 1975. The term virtual reality was first coined in 1989. Kiran Voleti, “50 Facts and Figures of Augmented Reality,” Real@Real, October 24, 2014, http://www.realareal.com/50facts-figures-augmented-reality The human eye only registers 1 ten-trillionth of the electromagnetic spectrum. “Can We Create New Senses for Humans?” TED, accessed November 18, 2015, https://www.ted.com/talks/david_eagleman_can_we_create_new_senses_ for_humans?language=en Oculus Rift raised US$2.5 million on Kickstarter in August 2012. Facebook bought the company for $2 billion 18 months later. Peter Diamandis, “From $2M to $2B in 18 Months: What Entrepreneurs Can Learn from Oculus VR,” Huffington Post, April 14, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-diamandis/from-2m-to2b-in-18-month_b_5147883.html Overall, AR and VR revenues are predicted to reach $150 billion by 2020. Tim Merel, “Augmented and Virtual Reality to Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile by 2020,” TechCrunch, April 6, 2015, http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-andvirtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/#.yyyyffi:R0vA By 2020, 103 million automobiles could contain AR technology. Augmented Reality: Envision a More Intelligent World (Semico Research & Consulting, October 2012), http://www.semico.com/sites/default/files/TOC_MP105-12.pdf
Robert McMillan, “Speech Recognition Gets Conversational”, Wall Street Journal – Digits, May 28, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/05/28/speech-recognitiongets-conversational/ Tactile technology is improving rapidly due to research and development in robot-assisted medicine. Charm Labs – Collaborative Haptics and Robotics in Medicine, List of 2015 Publications, http://charm.stanford.edu/Main/Publications The nascent virtual reality market will frow to US$30B in the next five years, while augmented reality will be a US$120B business by 2020. Eric Johnson, “Digi-Capital: Augmented Reality Like HoloLens to Outpace Virtual Reality Like Oculus,” Re/code, April 6, 2015, http://recode.net/2015/04/06/digi-capitalaugmented-reality-like-hololens-to-outpace-virtual-reality-like-oculus/
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Issue No. 09 Healthcare invests more in treatment than prevention; approximately 86 % of U.S. healthcare spending is for chronic conditions. “Chronic Diseases: The Leading Causes of Death and Disability in the United States, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, accessed November 18, 2015, http://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/overview/ Remote patient monitoring for conditions like heart disease, asthma, and diabetes could save more than US$200 billion. David H. Roman, et al., The Digital Revolution Comes to US Healthcare: Technology, Incentives Align to Shake Up the Status Quo (Goldman, Sachs & Co., June 29, 2015), http://www.wageningenur. nl/upload_mm/0/f/3/8fe8684c-2a84-4965-9dce-550584aae48c_Internet%20 of%20Things%205%20-%20Digital%20Revolution%20Comes%20to%20US%20 Healtcare.pdf Telehealth options (estimated to be a $25 billion market in 2015) for routine and psychological care could save $100 billion. “eVisits: The 21st Century House Call,” WSJ.com, March 6, 2014, http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2014/03/06/evisits-the21st-century-house-call/ The global medical technology market is estimated to reach $513.5 billion by 2020, from $363.8 billion in 2013. 2015 Global Life Sciences Outlook: Adapting in an Era of Transformation (Deloitte, 2014), https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/ Deloitte/global/Documents/Life-Sciences-Health-Care/gx-lshc-2015-life-sciencesreport.pdf In 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first 3D-printed drug. “First 3D-Printed Drug Approved by FDA,” CNNMoney, August 4, 2015, http:// money.cnn.com/2015/08/04/technology/fda-3d-printed-drug-epilepsy/
Issue No. 10 1 trillion sensors could be connected to the Internet by 2022. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact (World Economic Forum, September 2015), http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_ report_2015.pdf Appliances and home automation will account for more than half of household Internet traffic by 2024. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact (World Economic Forum, September 2015), http://www3.weforum. org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf The first “smart city” with Internet-connected, automated roads, services, and utilities will emerge by 2026. Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact (World Economic Forum, September 2015), http://www3.weforum. org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf
Military snipers who trained in a flow state learned skills 230% faster. Steven Kotler, “Create a Work Environment That Fosters Flow,” Harvard Business Review, May 6, 2014, https://hbr.org/2014/05/create-a-work-environment-that-fosters-flow/ Research has discovered 17 triggers that speed entrance into the flow state. Steve Kotler, “The Rise of Superman: 17 Flow Triggers” (PowerPoint deck), SlideShare posted March 3, 2014, http://www.slideshare.net/StevenKotler/17-flow-triggers Companies that have employees revisit their goals at least quarterly are 3.5 times more likely to be top performers in their industry. “Bersin by Deloitte: Effective Employee Goal Management Is Linked to Strong Business Outcomes” (press release), PR Newswire, December 17, 2014, http://www.prnewswire.com/ news-releases/bersin-by-deloitte-effective-employee-goal-management-is-linkedto-strong-business-outcomes-300011399.html
Issue No. 12 Experts predict there will be up to 10 trillion sensors by 2025. Janusz Bryzek, “Roadmap for the Trillion Sensor Universe,” (PowerPoint deck, slide 13), Gilt Tech, November 26, 2013, http://de.slideshare.net/fullscreen/LappleApple/t-sensors/13 Image, speech, and voice recognition are advancing quickly and may soon surpass human abilities. John Markoff, “Researchers Announce Advance in Image-Recognition Software,” The New York Times, November 17, 2014, http://www. nytimes.com/2014/11/18/science/researchers-announce-breakthrough-in-contentrecognition-software.html?_r=1 “The Revolutionary Technique that Quietly Changed Machine Vision Forever,” MIT Technology Review, September 9, 2014, http://www.technologyreview.com/ view/530561/the-revolutionary-technique-that-quietly-changed-machine-visionforever/ Robert McMillan, “Speech Recognition Gets Conversational,” Wall Street Journal – Digits, May 28, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/05/28/speech-recognitiongets-conversational/ The cost of passive RFID tags ranges from US$0.07 to $0.15 today and continues to fall. “RFID Frequently Asked Question,” RFID Journal, accessed December 22, 2015, https://www.rfidjournal.com/faq/show?85 The Internet of Everything market could grow to $14.4 trillion by 2022. Bradley, Joseph, Joel Barbier, and Doug Handler, “Embracing the Internet of Everything to Capture Your Share of $14.4 Trillion,” Cisco Systems, Inc., 2013, https:// www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy.pdf
Issue No. 13
Fabrics that can charge electronics − or incorporate them − already exist. Blaine Friedlander, “Nanotech Transforms Cotton Fibers into Modern Marvel,” Cornell Chronicle, July 7, 2015, http://news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/07/nanotechtransforms-cotton-fibers-modern-marvel
Intangible assets make up 84% of the value of the S&P 500. Kristi L. Stathis, “Ocean Tomo Release 2015 Annual Study of Intangible Asset Market Value,” Ocean Tomo Insights Blog, March 5, 2015, http://www.oceantomo.com/blog/2015/03-05ocean-tomo-2015-intangible-asset-market-value/
Over 8 billion ambient intelligence smartphone apps will be downloaded in 2020. “Location-Based Ambient Intelligence Is the Next Big Leap in Consumer Applications,” ABI Research, February 26, 2015, https://www.abiresearch.com/press/ location-based-ambient-intelligence-is-the-next-bi/
A third of large companies’ revenue will be threatened by digital disruption by 2020. Peter Weill and Stephanie L. Woerner, “Thriving in an Increasingly Digital Ecosystem,” MIT Sloan Management Review, June16, 2015, http://sloanreview.mit. edu/article/thriving-in-an-increasingly-digital-ecosystem/
Issue No. 11
The average life-span of a publicly traded company has dropped from 67 years in 1920 to 15 years today. Bourree Lam, “Where Do Firms Go When They Die?” The Atlantic, April 12, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/ archive/2015/04/where-do-firms-go-when-they-die/390249/
Worldwide, only 13% of employees are fully involved in and enthusiastic about their jobs. Steve Crabtree, “Worldwide, 13% of Employees Are Engaged at Work,” Gallup Inc., October 3, 2013, http://www.gallup.com/poll/165269/worldwideemployees-engaged-work.aspx While “in flow,” business executives report a five-fold increase in productivity. Susie Cranston and Scott Keller, “Increasing the ‘Meaning Quotient’ of Work,” McKinsey Quarterly, January 2013, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/ organization/increasing_the_meaning_quotient_of_work
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In 10 years, 40% of the current Fortune 500 may no longer exist. Tech Trends 2014: Inspiring Disruption (Deloitte University Press, 2014), http://www2.deloitte. com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-cp-darwintech-trends-2014-social-activation.pdf Three out of four current S&P 500 firms will be replaced by new ones by 2027. Bourree Lam, “Where Do Firms Go When They Die?” The Atlantic, April 12, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/04/where-do-firms-gowhen-they-die/390249/
Issue No. 14 Graphene is only one atom thick yet up to 300 times stronger than steel. Jesus de la Fuente, description of graphene, Graphenea, accessed June 15, 2016, http://www.graphenea.com/pages/graphene/V1RCJbgrKM9#.V2Fe07srK00 A graphene-based battery may offer electric cars a driving range of 500 miles. Luke Edwards, “Future Batteries, Coming Soon: Charge in Seconds, Last Months and Power over the Air,” Pocket-lint LTD, March 24, 2016, http://www.pocketlint.com/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-lastmonths-and-power-over-the-air Researchers have developed cotton-blend nanomaterials that kill bacteria and conduct electricity. Dexter Johnson, “The Capabilities of Nanomaterials in Textiles Continue to Expand,” IEEE Spectrum blog, July 10, 2015, http://spectrum. ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/materials/capabilities-of-nanomaterials-intextiles-continue-to-expand Super materials could make solar cells up to 1,000 times more efficient. “Graphene Solar Panels: Introduction and Market Status,” Graphene-Info, accessed June 15, 2016, http://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-solar-panels?page=0%2C1 Scientists have created a metamaterial that makes whatever it covers invisible. Eric Mack, “‘Ultra-Thin Invisibility Skin Cloak’ Could One Day Be Worn Like a Garment,” CNET, September 17, 2015, http://www.cnet.com/news/berkeleyscientists-create-invisibility-skin-cloak/
Issue No. 15 Graphene circuits will shrink to 5 nanometers — 2,000 times smaller than a human hair. Cade Metz, “IBM’s New Carbon Nanotubes Could Move Chips Beyond Silicon,” WIRED, October 1, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/10/ibm-givesmoores-law-new-hope-carbon-nanotube-transistors/ Quantum computers will be exponentially faster than those we now use. “Watch: Quantum Computing Explained in Less Than 2 Minutes,” Science Alert, October 18, 2015, http://www.sciencealert.com/watch-quantum-computingexplained-in-less-than-2-minutes Swedish scientists have built a computer from nanoscopic protein particles. “Using nanotechnology to create parallel computers,” Lund University News and Press Releases. February 2, 2016, http://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/article/usingnanotechnology-to-create-parallel-computers A teaspoon of synthetic DNA could store all the data in the world. Jacob Aron, “Glassed-in DNA makes the ultimate time capsule,” New Scientist, February 11, 2015, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530084-300-glassed-in-dna-makesthe-ultimate-time-capsule/#.VONYR1PF_Md Passive Wi-Fi uses 10,000 times less power than 802.11a/b/g/n. Mark Harris, “Power from the Air”, 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2016, MIT Technology Review, accessed June 22, 2016, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600773/power-fromthe-air/
Issue No. 16 The gene- editing market is expected to reach US$3.5 billion by 2019 and has a range of applications. Genome Editing/Genome Engineering Market by Application (Cell Line Engineering, Animal & Plant Genetic Engineering), Technology (CRISPR, Antisense, TALEN, Zinc Finger Nuclease), & End User (Biotechnology & Pharmaceutical, CRO) – Global Forecast to 2019, MarketsandMarkets, April 2015, http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/genome-editing-engineeringmarket-231037000.html Gene editing may be used to treat chronic diseases and address human organ shortages. Abdullah Ely, Buhle Moyo, and Patrick Arbuthnot, “Progress with Developing Use of Gene Editing to Cure Chronic Infection with Hepatitis B Virus,” Molecular Therapy, February 26, 2016, http://www.nature.com/mt/journal/v24/n4/ full/mt201643a.html
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Tanya Lewis, “7 Major Advancements in Gene Editing in 2015,” World Economic Forum, December 30, 2015, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/12/7-majoradvancements-in-gene-editing-in-2015/ Scientists are using CRISPR to create a population of mosquitoes resistant to malaria. Tanja Lewis, “Scientists tweaked mosquito DNA to block malaria in its tracks,” Business Insider, November 23, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/ mosquito-dna-tweaked-to-stop-malaria-via-gene-drive-2015-11 DuPont is growing edited corn and wheat plants to resist drought and improve yields. Antonio Regalado, “DuPont Predicts CRISPR Plants on Dinner Plates in Five Years,” MIT Technology Review, October 8, 2016, https://www. technologyreview.com/s/542311/dupont-predicts-crispr-plants-on-dinner-plates-infive-years/ Novartis is working with gene-editing startups on research tools for drug discovery. “Novartis Collaborates with Intellia Therapeutics and Caribou Biosciences to Explore Making Medicines and Drug Discovery Tools with CRISPR Genome Editing Technology” [press release], Novartis, January 7, 2015, https://www.novartis.com/ news/media-releases/novartis-collaborates-intellia-therapeutics-and-cariboubiosciences-explore
Issue No. 17 The number of internet-connected devices and sensors will grow to 50 billion by 2020. There will be 200 billion internet-connected things by 2030. “Connections Counter: The Internet of Everything in Motion,” Cisco Systems Inc., July 29, 2013, https://newsroom.cisco.com/feature-content?type=webcontent&articleId=1208342 “A Guide to the Internet of Things,” Intel Corp., reviewed August 23, 2016, http://www. intel.com/content/www/us/en/internet-of-things/infographics/guide-to-iot.html Smartphone penetration will surge from 8% in 2010 to 65% in 2020. Mobile phone subscription rates are already at 96%. The Mobile Economy 2015, GSMA, http://www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_ Report_2015.pdf “Mobile Cellular Subscriptions (per 1000 People)” [chart], The World Bank, reviewed August 23, 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.CEL.SETS.P2 By 2020, the digital data universe will grow to 44 zettabytes, with 37% of it analyzable. 237.1 million wearable devices will be shipped. “The Digital Universe of Opportunities: Rich Data and the Increasing Value of the Internet of Things,” IDC, April 2014, http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/2014iview/executivesummary.htm “IDC Forecasts Worldwide Shipments of Wearables to Surpass 200 Million in 2019, Driven by Strong Smartwatch Growth and the Emergence of Smarter Watches” [press release], IDC, March 17, 2016, https://www.idc.com/getdoc. jsp?containerId=prUS41100116 The enterprise artificial intelligence market will increase from US$202.5 million in 2015 to $11.1 billion by 2024. “Artificial Intelligence for Enterprise Applications to Reach $11.1 Billion in Market Value by 2024,” Tractica LLC, April 23, 2015, https://www.tractica.com/newsroom/press-releases/artificial-intelligence-forenterprise-applications-to-reach-11-1-billion-in-market-value-by-2024/
Issue No. 18 November 2015: Date Microsoft introduces Blockchain as a Service. Marley Gray, “Ethereum Blockchain as a Service Now on Azure,” Microsoft Corporation, November 9, 2015, https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/ethereum-blockchainas-a-service-now-on-azure/ June 2016: Date IBM launches a blockchain lab for developers. Jeff John Roberts, “Can IBM Really Make a Business Out of Blockchain?” Fortune, June 28, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/06/28/ibm-blockchain/
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20 seconds: The speed of a blockchain-assisted international money transfer. “ATB Financial Sends One of the World’s First Real-Time Payments from Canada to Germany Using Blockchain Technology Supported by SAP,” SAP News Center, July 14, 2016, https://news.sap.com/atb-financial-sends-one-of-the-worlds-first-real-timepayments-from-canada-to-germany-using-blockchain-technology-supported-bysap/ $7.1 million: Series A funding for blockchain solutions provider Gem. “Gem Rings in 2016 with $7.1M in Series A Funding”, Pelion Venture Partners, http:// pelionvp.com/security/gem-rings-in-2016-with-7-1m-in-series-a-funding/ 10%: The percentage of global GDP the World Economic Forum predicts could be stored on blockchains by 2027. The Future of Financial Infrastructure: An Ambitious Look at How Blockchain Can Reshape Financial Services, (World Economic Forum, August 12, 2016), https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-offinancial-infrastructure-an-ambitious-look-at-how-blockchain-can-reshape-financialservices
Issue No. 19 Uber paid US$680 million to acquire self-driving truck startup Otto. Johana Bhuiyan, “Uber Paid $680 Million for Self-Driving Truck Company Otto for the Tech, Not the Trucks,” Recode, August 18, 2016, http://www.recode. net/2016/8/18/12540068/uber-paid-680-million-for-self-driving-truck-companyotto-for-the-tech-not-the-trucks Autonomous vehicle technology must now pass a 15-point federal safety assessment. Brendan Bordelon, “DOT Unveils Sweeping New Rules on Driverless Cars,” Morning Consult, September 19, 2016, https://morningconsult. com/2016/09/19/dot-unveils-sweeping-new-rules-driverless-cars/ The DOT has committed nearly $4 billion to developing safe vehicle automation. Autonomous | Self-Driving Vehicles Legislation, National Conference of State Legislators, November 11, 2016, http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/ autonomous-vehicles-legislation.aspx Only 6 percent of US cities include self-driving vehicles in their long-term transportation plans. Nicole DuPuis, Cooper Martin, and Brooks Rainwater, City of the Future: Technology and Mobility (National League of Cities, 2015), http://www. nlc.org/Documents/Find%20City%20Solutions/Research%20Innovation/City%20 of%20the%20Future/City%20of%20the%20Future%20FINAL%20WEB.pdf The auto industry expects to put fully self-driving cars on the road by 2020. John D. Stoll, “GM Executive Credits Silicon Valley for Accelerating Development of Self-Driving Cars,” The Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/ articles/gm-executive-credits-silicon-valley-for-accelerating-development-of-selfdriving-cars-1462910491
Issue No. 20 The first chatbot, ELIZA, was created in 1966. Joseph Weizenbaum, “ELIZA—A Computer Program for the Study of Natural Language Communication Between Man and Machine,” Communications of the ACM, January 1966, http://dl.acm.org/citation. cfm?id=365168&dl=ACM&coll=DL As of 2015, people were spending more time on messaging apps than social networks. “Messaging Apps Are Now Bigger Than Social Networks,” Business Insider Intelligence, September 20, 2016, http://www.businessinsider.com/the-messagingapp-report-2015-11 2.19 billion people will use mobile messaging apps by 2019. “Number of Mobile Phone Messaging App Users Worldwide from 2014 to 2019 (in Billions),” Statista, retrieved December 20,, 2016, https://www.statista.com/statistics/483255/numberof-mobile-messaging-users-worldwide/ Voice recognition technology is now about 95% accurate. Kevin J. Ryan, “Who’s Smartest: Alexa, Siri, and or Google Now?” Inc., June 3, 2016, http://www.inc.com/ kevin-j-ryan/internet-trends-7-most-accurate-word-recognition-platforms.html 20% of companies already use digital personal assistants. Based on the results of a survey of over 1,000 IT and business professionals sponsored by SAP and conducted by IDC
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Issue No. 21 In 2016, the machine intelligence market garnered US$5 billion in venture capital investment. Shivon Zilis and James Cham, “The Competitive Landscape for Machine Intelligence,” Harvard Business Review, November 2, 2016, https://hbr. org/2016/11/the-competitive-landscape-for-machine-intelligence By 2018, 45 percent of the fastest-growing companies will have fewer employees than instances of smart machines. Heather Pemberton Levy, “Gartner Predicts Our Digital Future,” Smarter With Gartner, October 6, 2015, http:// www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartner-predicts-our-digital-future/ Machine-learning technology will hit full mainstream adoption within the next two to five years. “Gartner’s 2016 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies Three Key Trends That Organizations Must Track to Gain Competitive Advantage” (press release), Gartner, August 16, 2016, http://www.gartner.com/ newsroom/id/3412017 The total machine learning market could reach $2 trillion within the next decade.Barb Darrow, “Through Machine Learning, IBM Braintrust Sees Better Days Ahead,” Fortune, February 25, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/02/25/ibm-seesbetter-days-ahead/
Issue No. 22 The cost of data breaches will reach US$2.1 trillion globally by 2019—nearly four times the cost in 2015. Rick Kam, “The High Cost of Doing Business: Data Breach Costs 2016,” ID Experts, October 26, 2016, https://www2.idexpertscorp.com/ blog/single/the-high-cost-of-doing-business-data-breach-costs-2016 Cyberattacks could cost up to $90 trillion in net global economic benefits by 2030 if cybersecurity doesn’t keep pace with growing threat levels. Jason Healey, Risk Nexus, Atlantic Council, September 2015, http://publications. atlanticcouncil.org/cyberrisks/risk-nexus-september-2015-overcome-by-cyberrisks.pdf Cyber insurance premiums could increase tenfold to $20 billion annually by 2025. Elisabeth Case, MMC Cyber Handbook 2016, Marsh & McLennan Companies, 2016, https://www.mmc.com/content/dam/mmc-web/Global-Risk-Center/Files/ MMC-Cyber-Handbook_2016-web-final.pdf Cyberattacks are one of the top 10 global risks of highest concern for the next decade. Elisabeth Case, MMC Cyber Handbook 2016, Marsh & McLennan Companies, 2016, https://www.mmc.com/content/dam/mmc-web/Global-RiskCenter/Files/MMC-Cyber-Handbook_2016-web-final.pdf
Issue No. 23 By 2018, smart machines will supervise over 3 million workers worldwide. “Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users for 2016 and Beyond” (press release), Gartner Newsroom, October 6, 2015, http://www.gartner. com/newsroom/id/3143718 21% of consumers in an FTC study had confirmed errors on their credit reports. Report to Congress Under Section 319 of the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003, Federal Trade Commission, December 2012, https://www. ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/section-319-fair-and-accurate-credittransactions-act-2003-fifth-interim-federal-trade-commission/130211factareport.pdf The first annual Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Machine Learning (FATML) conference was held in 2014. “2014 Schedule,” Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Machine Learning website, http://www.fatml. org/2014 A private university encouraged 20–25 students to drop out based on AI predictions of poor grades. Scott Jaschik, “Drowned Bunnies: Part 2,” Inside Higher Ed, January 25, 2016, https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2016/01/25/mountst-marys-board-blames-faculty-furor-over-presidents-metaphor-and-plans
Issue No. 24
Issue No. 28
Denmark spends the most GDP on labor market programs at 3.3%. “Public Spending on Labour Markets (Indicator),” OECD Data, accessed March 22, 2017, doi: 10.1787/911b8753-en
Google Cardboard VR goggles cost US$8. “V2 Cardboard,” I AM CARDBOARD, retrieved on August 29, 2017, http://www.imcardboard.com/cardboard-v2-0.html.
The U.S. spends only 0.1% of its GDP on adult education and workforce retraining. “Coming and Going: Truth and Myth About the Effects of Openness to Trade,” The Economist, September 29, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/ special-report/21707834-truth-and-myth-about-effects-openness-trade-comingand-going The number of post-secondary vocational and training institutions in China more than doubled from 2000 to 2014. Hong Shen, Shen Hua, and D. Bruce Johnstone, Higher Education Finance in China, University of Buffalo Graduate School of Education, February 2017, http://gse.buffalo.edu/org/inthigheredfinance/files/ Country_Profiles/Asia/China.pdf
By 2019, immersive solutions will be adopted in 20% of large businesses. Amy Forni, “Transform Business Outcomes with Immersive Technology,” Gartner, May 5, 2017, retrieved August 30, 2017, http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/ transform-business-outcomes-with-immersive-technology/. By 2025, The market for immersive hardware and software technology could be $182 billion. Gary Arlen, “Virtual Reality’s $182 Billion Future,” Multichannel News, January 15, 2016, http://www.multichannel.com/blog/i-was-saying/virtualrealitys-182-billion-future/396573.
47% of U.S. jobs are at risk for automation. Carl Benedikt Frey et al., Technology at Work v2.0, Citi GPS and Oxford Martin School, January 2016, http://www. oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work_2.pdf
In 2017, Lowe’s launched Holoroom How To VR DIY clinics. “Lowe’s Canada Introduces Next-Generation VR Experience, Holoroom How To, Providing On-Demand DIY Clinics for Home Improvement Learning,” MarketWatch, April 3, 2017, http://www. marketwatch.com/story/lowes-canada-introduces-next-generation-vr-experienceholoroom-how-to-providing-on-demand-diy-clinics-for-home-improvementlearning-2017-04-03.
Issue No. 26
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Just 3% of companies have completed enterprise digital transformation projects. 4 Ways Leaders Set Themselves Apart (SAP 2017), http://www.sap.com/ dmc/exp/4-ways-leaders-set-themselves-apart/index.html.
$480 million: venture investments in battery R&D in the first half of 2017. Jonathan Sheiber, New battery technologies are getting a charge from venture investors, TechCrunch, Sept 7, 2017, https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/newbattery-technologies-are-getting-a-charge-from-venture-investors/
92% of those companies have significantly improved or transformed customer engagement. 4 Ways Leaders Set Themselves Apart (SAP 2017), http://www.sap.com/dmc/exp/4-ways-leaders-set-themselves-apart/index.html. 81% of business executives say platforms will reshape industries into interconnected ecosystems. Digital Business Era: Stretch Your Boundaries (Accenture, 2015), https://www.accenture.com/us-en/_acnmedia/Accenture/ Conversion-Assets/Microsites/Documents11/Accenture-Technology-Vision2015.pdf. More than half of large enterprises (80% of the Global 500) will join industry platforms by 2018. “IDC Sees the Dawn of the DX Economy and the Rise of the Digital-Native Enterprise,” IDC, November 1, 2016, https://www.idc.com/getdoc. jsp?containerId=prUS41888916.
Issue No. 27
8 minutes: the amount of time to charge Toyota’s experimental solid state battery. Yuki Kato, Satoshi Hori, Toshiya Saito, Kota Suzuki, Masaaki Hirayama, Akio Mitsui Masao Yonemura, Hideki Iba and Ryoji Kanno, “High-power all-solid-state batteries using sulfide superionic conductors,” Nature Energy, 21 March 2016, Article Number 16030, DOI 10.1038/NENERGY.2016.30, http://bit.ly/2A77580 30,000: the number of homes to be powered by world’s largest lithium-ion battery array. Steve Dent, Tesla completes its giant Australian Powerpack battery on time, Engadget November 23, 2017, https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/23/ tesla-australia-powerpack-100-day-bet/ 200,000: the number of charges experimental gold nanowires can take without losing capacity. Luke Edwards, Nanowire battery can extend your phone battery life by hundreds of thousands of times, Pocket-lint, April 21, 2016, https:// www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/137387-nanowire-battery-can-extend-yourphone-battery-life-by-hundreds-of-thousands-of-times
Sensors will shrink to 50 micrometers (half the size of a human red blood cell). Ron Milo and Rob Phillips, “How Big Is a Human Cell?” Cell Biology by the Numbers, retrieved August 29, 2017, http://book.bionumbers.org/how-big-is-ahuman-cell/. Sensors will harvest energy from external sources, such as vibrations or electromagnetic radiation. Internet of Things: Wireless Sensor Networks (International Electrotechnical Commission, 2014), http://www.iec.ch/whitepaper/ pdf/iecWP-internetofthings-LR-en.pdf. Sensors will super-power our senses and create new ones, such as ESP. Matthew Hutson, “Beyond the Five Senses,” The Atlantic, July–August 2017, https:// www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/beyond-the-five-senses/528699/. Sensors in autonomous vehicles will generate 1 GB of data per second. Technology and Computing Requirements for Self-Driving Cars (Intel, May 18, 2016), http://les-svc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2016-05-18-Intel-automotiveautonomous-driving-vision-paper.pdf.
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For further information about Digital Futures, please contact: Daniel Wellers
Kai Goerlich
Digital Futures Lead SAP Marketing Strategy daniel.wellers@sap.com
Thought Leadership and Digital Futures SAP Marketing Strategy kai.goerlich@sap.com
www.digitalistmag.com/digitalfutures
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