The Crisis of TRUST in a
Social Age 03.12.11
It is safe? Watch this clip from the movie “Marathon Man� (1976)
SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES ITS METEORIC RISE
23%
41%
ALL INTERNET TIME SPENT ON SNS
YAG
248 MM
48%
UNIQUE MONTHLY VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS SITES
YAG
61%
50%
INTERNET USERS WITH AN SNS PROFILE
YAG
Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010
CONSUMER DECISION MAKING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOCIAL “Do I look good? I really love this dress. I don’t think pictures do it justice.”
I LIKE IT
I HATE IT
84
%
LIKE IT
Photo Credit: Kris Krüg
TRUST IN THE PEOPLE WE KNOW HAS ERODED CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES
2008
2010
TV NEWS
RADIO NEWS
NEWSPAPERS
FRIENDS/PEERS
0%
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF 60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE
Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010
TRUST AND SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE
40%
MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS
18%
UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
41%
THREE POSSIBILITIES 1
NOT A PROBLEM:
2
MAYBE A PROBLEM
3
YES, IT’S A PROBLEM:
• TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL
• TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO DO
ROCK THE VOTE! TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW
THE AUDIENCE HAS SPOKEN! 6%
1
NOT A PROBLEM:
2
MAYBE A PROBLEM
38%
3
YES, IT’S A PROBLEM:
56%
• TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL
• TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO DO
SOURCE: COMPILATION OF AUDIENCE VOTES VIA LIVE TWEETS DURING THE PRESENTATION
WHAT IS TRUST? CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN RELATION TO SOMETHING OF VALUE
WHY DOES TRUST EXIST? TO COMMUNE. TO LIVE. TO PROTECT WHAT’S VALUABLE.
RISK SHAPES TRUST
SELFACTUALIZATION: achieving one’s full potential including creative activities
SELF-FULFILLMENT NEEDS
ESTEEM NEEDS: prestige and feeling of accomplishment BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS: intimate relationships, friends SAFETY NEEDS: security, safety PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS: food, water, warmth, rest
Source: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow
PSYCHOLOGICAL NEEDS
BASIC NEEDS
THE MOB RULES
TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE COMPANY
CONSUMER
BRAND
CONNECTION
EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCT
REPUTATION
BELIEFS
PLACE
PR
EMOTIONAL
SERVICE
ADVERTISING
RATIONAL
PRICE
FRIENDS
PROMOTION
SOCIAL MEDIA ASSOCIATIONS EXPERIENCE SHOPPING CONSUMPTION
PSYCHOLOGICA L PHYSICAL
HOW TRUST WORKS OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE
EXPECTATION PUT IN
GET OUT
$$$ PHYSICAL PSYCHIC
RATIONAL EMOTIONAL
TRUST
IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION VALUE =
COSTS
VS.
PUT IN
BENEFITS
GET OUT
TRUST
‘FUTURE PROOF’ IS A TRUST PLAY VALUE =
COSTS
VS.
PUT IN
BENEFITS
GET OUT
TRUST
TRUST IS
FEELING GOOD.
Photo Credits: Heinrich Klaffs
AN ECONOMIC GALE OF DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS WW II ENDS
MID 1980s
2008
ERA OF READINESS
ERA OF INDULGENCE
ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
ECONOMIC RISK EVER-PRESENT DESPITE BEST EFFORTS TO MANAGE IT. STANDING ON GUARD.
RISK THOUGHT TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH HIGH-TECH MACRO-ECONOMIC TOOLS. INDULGING RISK
RISK ABRUPTLY RETURNS UNEXPECTEDLY CREATING UNCERTAINTY, REASSESSING EXTERNALITIES
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
WELCOME TO THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES “The new consumer psychology on the rise around the world is one of networks and prioritization, of explicitly pricing in consequences and of giving more than lip service to being resourceful and and vigilant to downside risks This is the global zeitgeist now aborning.�
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’ UNDERCURRENT CONSUMPTION
ECONOMIC
• • • •
• LAID OFF OR WORK SCALED BACK • HOMES WORTH LESS THAN DEBT • RETIREMENT FUNDS DECIMATED
ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY TOXIC DOG FOOD LED PAINT IN TOYS OBESITY
ENVIRONMENT
INSTITUTIONS
• SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGE • BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU • GLOBAL WARMING
• MORTGAGE COLLAPSE • INVESTMENT MELTDOWN • AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUTS
• 9/11
EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR The decision calculus of consumer choice will be different. The process of arriving at decisions will be different, even when the outcomes are the same. Consumers are redefining what value means to them.
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION VALUE =
COSTS
VS.
PUT IN
BENEFITS
GET OUT
TRUST
HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE PROPOSITION VALUE =
COSTS
VS.
PUT IN
GET OUT
TAKEN AWAY HOW IT’S MADE INGREDIENTS PROCESSING FOOTPRINT
BENEFITS
TRUST
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS A CHARACTER ISSUE
MOTIVATION / VOLUME OF COMMENTS
SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS
NEGATIVE
POSITIVE
NEUTRAL SENTIMENT CHARACTER
MOTIVATION / VOLUME OF COMMENTS
OPAQUE INTEGRITY
NEGATIVE
POSITIVE
NEUTRAL SENTIMENT CHARACTER
TALK IS
CHEAP
REFERRAL MODERATED BY REPUTATIONAL RISK
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC SOURCE FAMILIARITY
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
INDEPENDENCE Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
OPINION ORIGIN
EXPERTISE
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC SOMEONE YOU KNOW? VS SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
INDEPENDENCE Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
OPINION ORIGIN
EXPERTISE
TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS: MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC SOMEONE YOU KNOW? VS SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW
SOURCE FAMILIARITY
AGGREGATE CONSENSUS
OPINION ORIGIN EXPERIENCE? VS WHAT SOMEONE HAS SEEN OR HEARD?
INDEPENDENCE Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
EXPERTISE
WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?
29
%
A HIGH SCHOOL FRIEND ON FACEBOOK YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN A WHILE, WHO’S STAYED THERE
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
71
%
CLOSEST FRIENDS OR FAMILY BASED ON WHAT THEY’VE HEARD
UNDERSTANDING
SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR
EXPERT/ AUTHORITY
WHAT LOTS OF PEOPLE LIKE
PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND ME PEOPLE LIKE ME PEOPLE I LIKE
FAMILIARITY
Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011
41
%
IT’S GETTING HARDER TO TELL WHICH OPINIONS ARE RELIABLE AND WHICH ONES AREN’T.
BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
BRAND RESIDUE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT? TRUST OR MISTRUST… WHY NOT AFFINITY / LACK THEREOF? RESONANCE / DEAFNESS? LOVE / HATE / INDIFFERENCE? TRUST IS THE PRIME
WHAT TO DO?
GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS
(AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)
SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS AND
MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORT • BEHAVIOR VS WORDS • DISINTERMEDIATION VS INTERMEDIATION • USERS VS SPECULATORS • OVER TIME VS POINT
BEHAVIOR
VS
WORDS
DISINTERMEDIATION AND
INTERMEDIATION ( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT WISE? )
TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT LEVEL (“DIRECT RESPONSE” TO “DIRECT FEEDBACK”)
WHERE’S THE TWITTER ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?
USERS
VS
SPECULATORS
OVER TIME
VS
POINT IN TIME
LIFETIME CUSTOMER CONVERSATIONS INCREASE LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE
OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE BASED SATISFACTION • ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME ‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED / VISITED’ • FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME OF RELATIONSHIP ‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’
People are finding social media opinion less reliable Trust depends on a interrelationship of contextual factors which determine content’s value Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true oneto-one connection to build lasting value and earn trust
CHEERS! #quest4trust
#kmacwithcheese