11 minute read
The AV Landscape
// Who is driving the evolution of transportation technology?
// Who is shaping the infrastructure and technology to integrate this technology into our cities?
// Who is designing the places and streets where autonomous vehicles will have the most impact on our lives?
// And perhaps most importantly of all, can all of these interests align, creating a mobility network that will make our cities better for people?
10 The Public Sector 12 The Tech + Auto Industries 14 The Builders 16 The Urbanists
The Public Sector
Federal, state, and municipal governments are ultimately responsible for determining when and how AVs may operate. The technology itself has advanced to the point that legislators and public administrators must work proactively to anticipate the opportunities and challenges.
The public sector wields significant influence in the design of vehicles and infrastructure through its role in ensuring the safety, sustainability, and efficiency of vehicles and roadways. It is imperative that the federal, state, and local governing institutions work together in the creation of policy and make way for the fast growing technology. Today, there is little research and policy guidance that exists around planning for AVs: only 6% of the country’s major cities’ have long-range transportation master plans that consider AVs.
FEDERAL The Department of Transportation (DOT), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are the three main federal institutions regulating AVs. At their core, these agencies are set up to ensure fast, safe, efficient, accessible, and convenient transportation systems that meet the interests and enhance the quality of life of the American people. In the case of AVs, these agencies must create and support policies that stay focused on this mission.
In September 2016, the DOT and NHTSA issued the Federal Automated Vehicle Policy. This policy was important in providing a path for future safe deployment of AVs. It outlines the necessary support of technological and industry innovation as well as encouraging stakeholder engagement. Most importantly, they are working to accelerate and update policy framework as necessary and are committed to working to match the pace of the private sector to ensure safety. In addition, the FHWA issued new guidelines for Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) architectures. These guidelines were released to help state and local government agencies understand and prepare for the technology that will enable connected and autonomous vehicles. The plan governs how AVs integrate with existing traffic management and communication networks, how new initiatives may be funded, and stresses cooperation across state and local boundaries in the integration process.
Brooks Rainwater, National League of Cities
Here’s How Self-Driving Cars will Transform Your City. Wired, October 2016
STATUS OF AV INITIATIVES, 2017
STATE At a state and local level, regulators must work more closely to test technology and guidelines, as these are currently being tested. A case study of this implementation is in Boston, Massachusetts where the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (Mass DOT) established The Automated Vehicles Working Group in October 2016. This group came about from Executive Order No. 572 to encourage the safe development of AVs and their component parts in Massachusetts. Together Mass DOT and the AV Working Group will issue guidance to allow for safe testing on designated highways and other public roadways. They will work directly with companies to support innovation, propose changes to statutes and regulations that facilitate deployment, and ensure safety to the public in this process.
LOCAL At a local level, Boston is proactive about both testing AVs and providing space for conversation regarding urban impacts. AV implementation was discussed in the city of Boston’s transportation master plan Go Boston 2030. This plan included a wide variety of public engagement and visioning exercises. Having AVs in the equation is a productive step towards possible successful regulation and implementation. Additionally, in 2016 Boston was chosen for a year-long collaborative exercise with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Boston Consulting Group to study the Future of Urban and Autonomous Mobility. This effort will help create proactive policy and support for on-street testing. This will be vital in developing future best management practices.
The Tech + Auto Industries
Sticking with traditional strengths, most tech companies have focused on networks, remote sensing, and software platforms, leaving the design of actual vehicles to traditional automotive powerhouses.
The Carmakers, Startups, and Planners Reshaping Urban mobility, Curbed, July 2017
From Audi to Volvo, almost every major auto manufacturer has begun to invest significant resources in AV research. Many are developing in-house expertise through dedicated R&D groups, such as Audi’s Urban Future Initiative and Nissan-Renault’s Future Lab. Traditional manufacturers are entering into complementary partnerships with newer companies that specialize in artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and network analytics. For example, General Motors is partnering with Lyft. At the end of 2016, Ford Motors unveiled a strategy to transition from an automobile manufacturer to a “mobility company” and pledged to have driverless cars on the road by 2021.
AV technology has moved beyond the whimsical illustrations of the 1950s and the early experimental designs of Google. The technology is poised to disrupt the entire model of vehicle ownership, beginning with the industry that develops and manufacturing automobiles.
While there has been significant speculation around the efforts by technology firms like Google, Uber, and Tesla to develop fully autonomous vehicles, it is important to understand that there are five levels of autonomy, as defined by the Federal Government. Each level of autonomy will have different implications on how autonomous vehicles will be able to interact with the built environment. For example, we will see the impact of conditional automation in controlled environments, such as campuses and freeways, much sooner than we will see fully automated vehicles that can navigate complex urban environments.
Numerous public-private partnerships are already developing between cities and auto manufacturers to identify areas to pilot the today’s technology in controlled environments. Several car manufacturers, including Tesla, have claimed that their vehicles already contain the necessary hardware to operate without a driver. While these claims may be exagerated to some degree, the key takeaway is that the technology and automobile sectors are certainly moving forward.
Boston Consulting Group
“By 2050, driverless vehicles will drive an economy worth over $7 trillion”
Intel and Strategy Analytic, 2017
GM | Cruise Automation | Lyft
“Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018”
Ford | Argo AI
“Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021”
Honda | Waymo (Google)
“ Self-driving on the highway by 2020”
Toyota | Toyota Research Institute
“2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions
“2025 for truly driverless cars”
Renault | Nissan | Microsoft
“Self driving on the highway by 2021”
Volvo | Uber
“Self driving on the highway by 2021”
Daimler | Uber | Bosch
“Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s”
Tesla
“End of 2017”
Self-Driving Car Timeline for 11 Top Automakers, Venturebeat, June 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021
The Builders
As the ones responsible for the implementation and construction of much of our built fabric, real estate developers and universities are thinking progressively about building flexibility, the future of parking, and how their campuses can serve as ideal testing grounds for the new technlogy.
REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS
Developers understand that car culture is on its way out, even in some of the most autocentric parts of the country, and are beginning to rethink parking garages so that they are easily adaptable to other uses in the future. Projects such as AvalonBay Communities, a large residential complex in downtown Los Angeles, will include nearly 1,000 parking spaces at street level and two floors underground. Parking will be designed at level as opposed to with inclined floors, so the spaces can easily be repurposed, and with 13 foot ceilings to allow for future infrastructure (e.g. HVAC, plumbing, etc.). By the time the project is completed within four years, the developer has plans to convert many of the spaces into retail uses, a gym, and a movie theater. Other developers have also started to think about how to design parking structures for future office space. This would entail locating elevators and stairs in the middle as they are in office buildings, and ensuring that the facades of street level parking could easily be replaced with windows and match the rest of the building facade.
In addition to repurposing parking garages, commercial retail developers have started to focus on how to best apply the latest technology to enhance the overall retail experience. Rick Caruso, one of Los Angeles’ most prominent shopping mall developers, has already designated ride-sharing drop-off and pick-up zones at the Grove, one of his upscale retail centers located downtown, in anticipation of the days when mall parking spaces are expendable. Caruso is well aware that the Grove is one of the city’s hottest Uber destinations and has partnered with Google’s Intersection division to improve the overall arrival and departure experience through new technology that integrates phones, street sensors, and license-plate recognition.
Parking in new buildings can be designed to easily be converted into retail or office space in the future
UNIVERSITIES
Universities around the country have also proved to be a big player in the AV landscape, as their highly controlled and enclosed campuses serve as the ideal testing grounds for new technology. Campus environments are predictable, safe, often unrestricted by municipal or state regulation, and pedestrian-friendly with their relatively low speed limits. The built environment is also easier to program as circulation systems are far simpler than those of typical urban areas with a diverse range of street types and traffic patterns.
University campuses are innovative places that have the ability to experiment with this new technology and embrace its associated risk, differentiating them from other parts of the public realm. Currently, there are several companies marketing both autonomous shuttle services for passengers and autonomous golf cart vehicles for facility maintenance to university campuses. Both Varden Labs and Auto Robotics have started deploying their vehicles to several universities in California including the University of California Los Angeles, Sacramento State, and Santa Clara University.
Designated ride-sharing drop-off and pick-up zones at Los Angeles’ the grove shopping center
CASE STUDY: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, ANN ARBOR Navya, a French startup developing driverless shuttles, has partnered with the University of Michigan’s TechLab at MCity. MCity is a unique test facility that simulates a variety of urban and suburban environments on a 32- acre site on the University’s North Campus. MCity brings together partners from industry, government, and academia with the goal of implementing a working system of connected and automated vehicles in Ann Arbor by 2021. As a result of the MCity’s research, the University announced in June 2017 that they will have two 15-passenger fully-automated shuttles operating on North Campus this fall along a nonstop two-mile route.
The Urbanists
As a design firm, Sasaki is not alone in researching and postulating about the anticipated effects of AV technology on urban systems and the built form.
Several design, planning, and engineering firms across the globe have tackled the topic with the goals of generating discussion, increasing overall awareness around the imminence of the technology and potential future scenarios, and developing both multidisciplinary and industry partnerships. In addition to design firms, there are several urban thought leaders, such as think tanks, academic institutions, foundations, and professional organizations, that play a significant role in the future of the AV landscape. Although not directly involved in developing technology or designing cities, the research and recommendations they produce can have a substantial impact on and reflect the views of their constituents and audiences.
While the planning and design industry may have similar interests and end goals around AV technology, design firms and other urban thought leaders have taken a variety of different approaches toward research material including white papers, collaborative industry events, and tech partnerships, among others. Firms such as Arup, WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff, and HR&A have developed informative reports, policy roadmaps, and position papers, while engineering firms like Buro Happold Engineering have orchestrated and documented a series of design sprints across several cities worldwide. Other firms, such as IDEO, have focused on graphically visualizing the potential user experience, as well as forming partnerships with several auto companies. The planning and design industry has also generated several design competitions around the topic, one of the most recent being the Driverless Future Challenge, which called for proposals to actively shape New York City’s response to driverless technology. This competition, organized by Blank Space together with the City of New York, New Lab, AIA New York, and Fast Company, resulted in proposals from over 25 countries worldwide.
RECENT PUBLICATIONS
Arup “Future of Highways”
Bloomberg Associates “Taming the Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities”
Buro Happold Engineering “Global Design Sprints: How to Reimagine Our Streets in an Era of Autonomous Vehicles”
HR&A, Arcadis Design & Consulting, Sam Schwartz “Driverless Future: A Policy Roadmap For City Leaders”
IDEO “The Future of Automobility”
WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff “Driving Towards Driverless: A Guide for Government Agencies”
Industry research to date has focused on a range of design and policy topics across a variety of scales from streetscape design to the nature of public transit. Several research institutions, such as the RAND Corporation, have developed reports that seek to provide a comprehensive and balanced overview of the technology for policymakers at the state and national level, focusing on five key areas: safety, mobility, congestion, land use, and the environment. Professional organizations such as the National Association of Transportation Officials (NACTO) and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) have speculated about the potential effects of AV technology on transit and traditional types of mobility and on real estate products such as retail, self-storage, and parking.
The majority of design firms have honed in on the potential physical implications of the technology for the urban public realm. For example, the four finalist teams from the Driverless Future Challenge chose to address issues such as reclaiming the street through adaptable public squares, improving food access, increasing transit access in underserved neighborhoods, and managing high-volume AV pickup and dropoff locations near transit hubs.
Most peer firms, urban think tanks, and professional organizations have accepted the imminent future of driverless cars, although opinions vary about timing of the technology and the impacts on land use patterns. Thought leaders such as RethinkX, an independent think tank focused on technology-driven disruption and one of the boldest proponents of AV technology, has asserted that “by 2030, within ten years of regulatory approval of fully autonomous vehicles, 95% of all US passenger miles will be served by transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) providers who will own and operate fleets of autonomous electric vehicles.”
Others are not as convinced and argue that there will be a greater transitional period with a mix of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles on the road. The majority of the industry has also opted to focus on the potential positive impacts of this technology on urban areas such as reduced space for parking, more pedestrian-friendly spaces, and enhanced access for the disabled or elderly. However, not everyone shares this optimistic perspective. In a recent ULI publication, urbanists Peter Calthorpe and Jerry Walters assumed a more cautious attitude by questioning how AVs will affect the number of cars on the road and total miles driven and whether or not they will exacerbate sprawl if people are more inclined to travel longer distances in cars. They argue that shared use of these vehicles is essential in order to maintain thriving urban areas centered around walking, biking, and mass transit.
As urbanists, we are all driven to guide the ongoing technology race in the right direction to ensure optimal future urban conditions. The planning and design industry has established itself as a key player in the discussion around AV technology and now must boldly assume an active role in how we integrate the technology into our cities.
Robin Chase, Founder of Zipcar
Self-Driving Cars Will Improve Our Cities. If They Don’t Ruin Them. Wired, August 2016
