Consumer Insights
The Plus Side of 55+ Delayed Marriage=Delayed Homeownership DesignLens Top 50 MPCs of 2014
ConsumerInsights What Do You Call Home?
NATIONWIDE SAMPLE
Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our 3rd annual Consumer Insights couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.
Over 22,000 responses are collected across the nation annually. We have access to over 50,000 total responses in our past survey database.
PARTNERS
Builders, developers, and Zillow joined in the effort nationwide by sending an e-mail to their prospective shoppers.
E-MAIL SURVEY
Over 100 questions and several hundred variables regarding shopper’s opinions on their next home and community.
Insight Customized to Increase Your Bottom Line Consumer Insights is a “focus-forward� study so that real estate practitioners can use this information to make strategic decisions moving forward. The information can be customized to meet your needs.
GEOGRAPHIC
We understand that geography affects consumer preferences. Responses can roll up to a national or regional level or drilled down to the MSA or submarket level.
PRICE POINT
We understand that affordability is different for each new home shopper. Respondents were asked their desired price point and payment in their next home; our report can be filtered accordingly.
GENERATIONS & LIFESTAGE
We understand that lifestage impacts purchasing behaviors. Reports are available specifically for 55+ and the millennial buyers.
Fantastic Insight On: HOME To learn more about how you can better develop your next community, marketing strategy, or new product design, please contact:
Kitchen Bathroom Private outdoor living Great space Architectural style Yard preferences Specifications & Technology
MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal
COMMUNITY
mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com (949) 870-1214
Community amenities Lifestyle
INTERIOR STYLE
Interior style preferences Exterior style preferences Interior specifications Texture Color
ATTITUDES
How they live How they shop What they value
The Plus Side of 55+
Sample Newsletter
by Chris Porter, Chief Demographer It is time to get serious about listening to consumers and designing for the aging Baby Boomer population—the largest share of home shoppers today—who are looking for their next home opportunity as their children leave the nest and they consider retirement. 42% of the 22,000 home shoppers who took our 2014 Consumer Insights survey are 55+ and shared with us that: • Home design will make them move (it is the thirdmost-important motivator for moving after location and price), but 55% say they can’t find what they are looking for. • 43% want to downsize, with most wanting 1,500– 1,999 square feet. • Among those without children*: ŵŵ 46% want to live in a community that is more multigenerational ŵŵ 33% want an age-restricted community ŵŵ 21% want an age-targeted community
The opportunities offered by the 55+ population are huge. They represent: • 25% of the total population • 50%+ of current homeowners (likely with plenty of equity) and have a homeownership rate in excess of 75% • 30%+ of total home transactions All of these rates are only getting bigger. The challenge is that the 55+ homeowner population tends to stay in place—less than 3% move per year, although it is higher for the younger portion of this cohort. Great design will make them move. *Preference for age-restricted and age-targeted communties varies widely by geography.
Delayed Marriage Equals Delayed Homeownership
Sample Newsletter
by Mollie Carmichael, Principal The share of 25-- 29 year-olds who are married is down by almost 48% for men and 43% for women from 1970. This single fact is one of the biggest game changers in the housing industry. What impact does this change in marital status mean for your housing strategies? It is huge! The housing market is unquestionably fueled by life stage changes, particularly the change of marital status and the addition (and subtraction) of children. These changes significantly affect where consumers want to live and what kind of home and community they will choose. For example: • Singles are more likely to rent and live in locations that are closer to entertainment and employment, and these areas are seeing more demand today than they have historically. •
Marriage usually ignites the desire to own a home with a variety of locational and housing choices depending on income and family present.
•
Cohabitation has certainly been on the rise in recent
decades, but homeownership rates for cohabitating couples are much lower than rates for married couples. •
The addition of children makes owning a home almost a necessity, given the need for yards, toys, education, and social circles.
• Children moving out often results in lifestyle changes, including different social circles, home size, and floor plan needs. Locational preferences also begin to shift. Our Consumer Insights survey of 22,000+ new home shoppers, coupled with our Housing Demand Model by Lifestage and Price Point, shows just how much housing preferences have changed. These preferences can vary widely by geography and price point, and our team can help you make sense of how these changing dynamics are affecting your market.
Consumer
Insights
81%
of prospective shoppers say the design is one of the most important factors motivating them to buy a new home.
80%
will consider a smaller backyard if it is designed as a great outdoor space.
Consumer
Insights
Consumer
Insights
Look out for multi-generational living! 39% plan on an elderly parent and 35% plan on a child over 18 living with them with their next purchase.
67% of all shoppers have pets.
Consumer
Insights
Consumer
Insights
Top Amenities Check out what more than 20,000 new home shoppers shared as the amenities they most wanted in their next community. Below are the top 25 preferences by generation. The major differences relate to the presence of children for the younger generations.
Boomers
Born 1946 to 1964
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Gen X
Born 1965 to 1979
Gen Y
Born 1980 to 2000
*
Grocery Store Close By
Grocery Store Close By
Grocery Store Close By
Restaurants Close By
Restaurants Close By
Restaurants Close By
Walking Trails
Walking Trails
Fitness Center
Fitness Center
Fitness Center
Walking Trails
Village Square
Recreational Center
Children’s Park
Shopping
Village Square
Shopping
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
Shopping
Recreational Center
Community High-Speed Internet
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
Recreational Center
Community High-Speed Internet
Community-Wide events
Shaded Areas
Shaded Areas
Children’s Park
Community High-Speed Internet
Organized On-Site Programming
Community-Wide events
Shaded Areas
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Organized On-Site Programming
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Running
Dog Park
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Running
*
All three generations ranked Fitness Center and Walking Trails as top amenities above retail shopping.
Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas
*
Wi-Fi Internet Access and a Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, etc. are more Village Square important to the Boomers than they are to Community-Wide events Gen X and Gen Y.
*
Community-Wide events rank above pools, parks, and other typical amenities. Events can be much less expensive too!
Children’s Water /Play Area
*
Look for our future trends in what consumers want in communities and homes by generation. We believe it starts with your consumers.
Today’s shoppers rated Service & Retail as the most important amenities for their next community purchase.
A Dog Park is among the top park choices. It scored highest for Gen Y, followed by the Boomers.
Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our 3rd annual Consumer Insights report couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.
Gen X
Boomers
16 17
Gen Y
Born 1965 to 1979
Born 1946 to 1964
Born 1980 to 2000
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
Tennis Courts
Live Music in the Park
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Sport Fields
Remote Guard Gate, $50/month
Sport Fields
Basketball Courts
Dog Park
Children’s Water/Play Area
Tennis Courts
Cycling
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
Yoga/Pilates Studio
Open Space, $50/Month
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area
22
Amphitheater Outdoors
Dog Park
23
Adult-only Pool (18+)
Cycling
Art Shows in the Park
Basketball Courts
Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month
Library
Live Music in the Park
Live Music in the Park
18 19 20 21
24 25
WATER
ADVENTURE
NATURE
ARTS &
ENTERTAINMENT
PARKS
Organized On-Site Programming
*
Events and experiences, as a whole, rank above “hard amenities” like a pool.
Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc
Movies in the Park
REC CENTER
EVENTS
SERVICE & RETAIL
SPECIAL AMENITIES
Let us help! We can help optimize your community and home design for better homes, better places, and better profit. Please contact Mollie Carmichael at mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com or (949) 870-1214. WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM
Consumer
Insights New Home Shoppers
Generations
Let’s look at who’s shopping out there today for a new home! Who are they? What do they want? This infographic is part of a new series of studies by JBREC on generational differences, based on responses from 22,000 new home shoppers. This Generations infographic details each generation’s life stage and behavior in regards to purchasing a home. Visit www.realestateconsulting.com and let us help your team improve your home or community strategies by better understanding your consumers by specific location.
New Home Shoppers
Boomers
New Home Shoppers
Gen X
Born 1946 to 1964
Gen Y
Born 1965 to 1979
Born 1980 to 2000
LIFE STAGE Family
Single
21%
Family
Single
66%
14%
79%
10%
34%
have 2 or fewer people in household.
have 2 or fewer people in household.
Family
Single
44%
9%
56%
have 2 or fewer people in household. Highest percentage of college graduates at 45%
PAYMENT, PRICE, AND DOWN PAYMENT
47%
of Boomers have a down payment of 30% or greater—thanks to their home equity. This generation is looking for the lowest monthly payment but not necessarily the lowest price. Boomer payments are lower than Gen Y because they are moving down and putting down equity. Their larger down payments help! This consumer will rely heavily on equity—particularly for the consumer that needs to travel further out to purchase or “cash out” for financial security.
47% Gen X
are paying the highest monthly payments...not the Boomers. They also have the highest incomes.
of Gen Y will rely on savings for their down payment. They are the most budget-conscious of all shopping groups. They are almost 2x more likely to get their down payment from their family than Gen X.
18% will pay $2,500+/month
28% will pay $2,500+/month
19% will pay $2,500+/month
69% want a home under $2,500/month
45% want a home under $2,500/month
52% want a home under $2,500/month
33% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)
37% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)
26% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)
WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM
Consumer
Insights
Over 62%
will use either their tablet or mobile phone while shopping for their next home.
Top kitchen features include large islands, walk-in pantries, and high-tech appliances.
Consumer
Insights
a
Insight Inspire Innovate DesignLens can help you make smarter decisions and save your company money by providing you: An invaluable resource of product information. We act as your scout, preselecting projects nationwide based on input from industry representatives familiar with great design throughout the country. With the guided walk-through you can find out what new, innovative or historical projects are out there and why they’re noteworthy, which ones are must-sees and which you feel like you’ve already visited through the DesignLens website. Availability anywhere you have an internet connection: at your desk, at home, at a client or vendor’s office. It’s full-time access to inspiration. Great Ideas by taking you on a tour with industry experts through some of the country’s freshest new residential production homes and master planned communities, providing beautiful images taken by our photographer, John Bare. You can also explore some classic historical neighborhoods, as well as new innovations and trends in home building. Thousands of images are on our site with links to floor plans, site plans, project profiles and builder/ consultant contact. Unlike print magazines or other web based sites, DesignLens gives you 30-100 images of each project. That’s 300-1,000 images every month for an in-depth tour of some industry highlights. Our archive contains over a 100,000 images, floor plans, site plans, project information and contacts.
www.DESIGNLENS.com
av
Good to Great? DesignLens is intended to be a tool to help you move from good to great in 2015.
From
To
Ordinary Product Extra ordinary Product Average Profit
Outstanding Profit
Auto-Pilot
Purposeful Planning
Scattered Results
Focused Results
Fractured Communities
Synergistic Communities
Management Leadership Rear View Looking Forward Reactive Proactive Builder Driven Consumer Driven Complacent Visionary
www.DESIGNLENS.com
a
Insight Inspire Innovate
Online Image Tours of Great Communities Established in 2001, DesignLens is the building industry's largest online library of photo tours for: • • • •
Along with the photographs, DesignLens offers floor plans, site plans and written analyses that all help profile some of the country's finest examples of residential and commercial development. A Resource that Gives You a Competitive Edge
Model Homes Master Planned Communities Historical Neighborhoods Town/Commercial Centers
The 800+ communities and developments depicted on DesignLens have been specifically chosen for their innovations in architecture, design, land planning and/or historical significance. A Photo Library of Inspiring Designs
DesignLens also provides communication tools that let you share this valuable information with clients and colleagues, including: • Create slideshows for design boards and presentations • Share images and ideas with clients from remote locations • Make folders of your favorite images
The more than 100,000 images stored in the DesignLens archives are searchable by: • • • • • • •
Architectural Styles Housing Types Exterior Features Interior Details Green Building Square Footages and House Widths Regions, and more
www.DESIGNLENS.com 14
av
av
Become a Subscriber For more information or to start you subscription, contact Isabell Kerins ikerins@realestateconsulting.com (949) 870-1241
www.DESIGNLENS.com 15
50
Top
Master-Planned Communities of 2014 2014
2013
YOY% ∆
Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC
2,601
3,419
-24%
THE IRVINE RANCH1 Orange County, CA
The Irvine Company
1,431
1,416
1%
5
NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL
The PARC Group
851
838
2%
6
RIVERSTONE Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
719
791
-9%
4
MOUNTAIN’S EDGE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
609
841
-28%
10
ALAMO RANCH2 San Antonio, TX
Galo Properties
585
600
-3%
11
STAPLETON Denver, CO
Forest City Enterprises
508
570
-11%
15
ALIANA Houston, TX
Aliana Development Company
500
468
7%
20
VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA
Five Point Communities/Newhall Land
493
372
33%
9t
9
LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL
Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.
493
618
-20%
11
7
PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV
Focus Property Group
487
726
-33%
8
THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX
The Woodlands Development Company
468
649
-28%
3
CINCO RANCH Houston, TX
Newland Communities
451
854
-47%
22
RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC
451
360
25%
15
N/A
COLLEGE PARK Riverside-San Bernadino, CA
Standard Pacific Homes/Lennar Homes , LLC
444
235
89%
16
N/A
WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE Houston, TX
Friendswood Development Company
442
193
129%
17
12
SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV
The Howard Hughes Corporation
437
566
-23%
38
PAVILION PARK AT GREAT PARK Orange County, CA
Five Point Communities
425
245
73%
14
LAKE NONA Orlando, FL
Tavistock Group
419
475
-12%
16
WOODFOREST Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
417
457
-9%
13
CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
411
515
-20%
18
CANYON LAKES WEST Houston,TX
Land Tejas Company
410
515
-20%
24
CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC
Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development
385
341
13%
19
BRAMBLETON Washington, DC
Brambleton Group LLC
374
373
0%
Net Sales
Developer
Project Name and Location
Rankings
21
FIRETHORNE Houston, TX
Jefferson Development Company
368
361
2%
2014
2013
1
1
THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL)
2
2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9t
12 13t 13t
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25
Rank Increased
1
Rank Declined
2
Irvine Ranch includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, Woodbury, and Orchard Hills. Estimate
Bold Multiple MPCs on list
Rankings
27
17
28t 28t 31
Caldwell Companies
366
268
37%
SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX
Johnson Development Corp.
359
445
-19%
N/A
PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX
Republic Property Group
337
330
2%
23
DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT
Kennecott Land
337
353
-5%
28t
VALENCIA RESERVE/COVE West Palm Beach, FL GL Homes
329
299
10%
49
OAKHURST AT KINGWOOD Houston, TX
Friendswood Development Company
327
224
46%
11
EAGLE SPRINGS Houston, TX
Newland Communities
319
321
-1%
N/A
BAKER RANCH Orange County, CA
Shea Homes/Toll Brothers
309
0
N/A
34
43t
WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX
DR Horton
301
235
28%
30
MOUNTAIN HOUSE Stockton, CA
Shea Homes
296
290
2%
36
N/A
GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO
Oakwood Homes
293
253
16%
37
N/A
VIERA Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL
The Viera Company
288
262
10%
38t
N/A
GRAND MISSION ESTATES Houston, TX
Friendswood Development Company
276
197
40%
38t
27
CRYSTAL FALLS Austin, TX
Lookout Development Group
276
305
-10%
50
HIGHLANDS RANCH Denver, CO
Shea Homes
263
220
20%
41
N/A
OTAY RANCH San Diego, CA
McMillin Land Development/Baldwin & Sons
254
315
-19%
42
41t
ST. CHARLES Washington, DC
St. Charles Companies
250
241
4%
28t
SHADOW CREEK RANCH Houston, TX
Shadow Creek Ranch Development
244
304
-20%
37
TERAVISTA Austin, TX
Newland Communities
241
249
-3%
45
N/A
TREVISO BAY Naples, FL
Lennar Homes, LLC
239
215
11%
46
32
THE MEADOWS Denver, CO
Castle Rock Development Co.
238
263
-10%
47
N/A
POSITANO2 East Bay, CA
Braddock and Logan
233
143
63%
48
N/A
DEL SUR San Diego, CA
Standard Pacific Homes
231
179
29%
49
N/A
AVE MARIA Naples, FL
Barron Collier Companies
227
173
31%
50
46t
RIVERSTONE Naples, FL
GL Homes
226
230
-2%
22,238
23,112
-4%
35
40
43 44
33
32
2013
30
TOWNELAKE Houston, TX
2014
N/A
YOY% ∆
26
Net Sales
2013
Developer
2014
Project Name and Location
TOTAL
SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2015)
MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal
(949) 870-1214
mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com
Mollie is a Principal in our custom consulting practice. For over 25 years, Mollie has helped companies increase profits dramatically by understanding the market and consumer first. She is passionate about guiding strategic planning decisions with consumer and market based methodologies in order to optimize financial results. Mollie has led research efforts throughout the country on masterplan communities and individual neighborhood design where companies. In addition to managing various consulting assignments, Mollie leads our firm’s Consumer Insights research to help our clients understand what consumers value in their homes and communities. Prior to joining the company, Mollie served as a Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Lennar, Centex Homes, Pulte Homes/Del Webb and Vice President of Residential Product Planning at The Irvine Company, where she led strategic planning, target land acquisition strategies, acquisition and market study due diligence, consumer and product segmentation, quantitative and qualitative consumer research, competitive research, as well as tactical media planning, model and sales office merchandising. Mollie has been quoted in various media publications including the Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Reuters, Businessweek, and Professional Builder. She has been a speaker on Consumer Insights and innovative planning ideas throughout the country including PCBC, ULI, UBS, and other specific venues. Affiliations ULI – Community Development Council Building Industry Association 55+ Housing Council
Our
Team
Access to Our Nationwide Team of Experts John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC takes great pride in our highly educated, resourceful and experienced team that includes practitioners with 25+ years of experience in both homebuilding and community development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research and our forecasts.
Regional Offices
Client Resources John Burns CEO
Rick Palacios Director of Research
Lisa Marquis Jackson Business Development
Steve Dutra Data Management
Sacramento, CA Dean Wehrli Chicago, IL Lance Ramella
Irvine, CA
New England Jody Kahn
Mollie Carmichael
Nicole Murray
Washington, DC Dan Fulton
San Diego, CA Pete Reeb
Atlanta, GA David Kalosis
Don Walker Dallas, TX Ken Perlman
Paige Shipp
Boca Raton, FL Lesley Deutch
REGIONAL OFFICE LOCATIONS ATLANTA, GA
CHARLOTTE, NC
12600 Deerfield Parkway | Suite 100 Alpharetta, Georgia 30004
1900 Glades Road | Suite 205 Boca Raton, Florida 33431
9935-D Rea Road | Suite 273 Charlotte, North Carolina 28277
DIR: (770) 286-3493
DIR: (561) 998-5814
DIR: (704) 989-1190
CHICAGO, IL
DALLAS, TX
DENVER, CO
3108 State Route 59 | Suite 124-247 Naperville, Illinois 60564
5220 Spring Valley Road | Suite 215 Dallas, Texas 75254
1630-A 30th Street| Suite 475 Boulder, Colorado 80301
DIR: (630) 544-7826
DIR: (214) 389-9003
DIR: (720) 328-1530
IRVINE, CA
NEW ENGLAND
SACRAMENTO, CA
9140 Irvine Center Drive | Suite 200 Irvine, California 92618
155 Fleet Street | Suite 11 Portsmouth, New Hampshire 03801
7840 Madison Avenue | Suite 187 Fair Oaks, California 95628
DIR: (949) 870-1200
DIR: (603) 235-5760
DIR: (949) 870-1200
SAN DIEGO, CA
20
BOCA RATON, FL
WASHINGTON, DC
4250 Executive Square | Suite 540 La Jolla, California 92037
11710 Plaza America Drive | Suite 2000 Reston, Virginia 20190
DIR: (858) 558-8384
DIR: (703) 447-7171
WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM
WISCONSIN DIR: (920) 373-6727