JBREC Consumer Insights

Page 1

Consumer Insights

The Plus Side of 55+ Delayed Marriage=Delayed Homeownership DesignLens Top 50 MPCs of 2014


ConsumerInsights What Do You Call Home?

NATIONWIDE SAMPLE

Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our 3rd annual Consumer Insights couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.

Over 22,000 responses are collected across the nation annually. We have access to over 50,000 total responses in our past survey database.

PARTNERS

Builders, developers, and Zillow joined in the effort nationwide by sending an e-mail to their prospective shoppers.

E-MAIL SURVEY

Over 100 questions and several hundred variables regarding shopper’s opinions on their next home and community.


Insight Customized to Increase Your Bottom Line Consumer Insights is a “focus-forward� study so that real estate practitioners can use this information to make strategic decisions moving forward. The information can be customized to meet your needs.

GEOGRAPHIC

We understand that geography affects consumer preferences. Responses can roll up to a national or regional level or drilled down to the MSA or submarket level.

PRICE POINT

We understand that affordability is different for each new home shopper. Respondents were asked their desired price point and payment in their next home; our report can be filtered accordingly.

GENERATIONS & LIFESTAGE

We understand that lifestage impacts purchasing behaviors. Reports are available specifically for 55+ and the millennial buyers.

Fantastic Insight On: HOME To learn more about how you can better develop your next community, marketing strategy, or new product design, please contact:

Kitchen Bathroom Private outdoor living Great space Architectural style Yard preferences Specifications & Technology

MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal

COMMUNITY

mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com (949) 870-1214

Community amenities Lifestyle

INTERIOR STYLE

Interior style preferences Exterior style preferences Interior specifications Texture Color

ATTITUDES

How they live How they shop What they value


The Plus Side of 55+

Sample Newsletter

by Chris Porter, Chief Demographer It is time to get serious about listening to consumers and designing for the aging Baby Boomer population—the largest share of home shoppers today—who are looking for their next home opportunity as their children leave the nest and they consider retirement. 42% of the 22,000 home shoppers who took our 2014 Consumer Insights survey are 55+ and shared with us that: • Home design will make them move (it is the thirdmost-important motivator for moving after location and price), but 55% say they can’t find what they are looking for. • 43% want to downsize, with most wanting 1,500– 1,999 square feet. • Among those without children*: ŵŵ 46% want to live in a community that is more multigenerational ŵŵ 33% want an age-restricted community ŵŵ 21% want an age-targeted community

The opportunities offered by the 55+ population are huge. They represent: • 25% of the total population • 50%+ of current homeowners (likely with plenty of equity) and have a homeownership rate in excess of 75% • 30%+ of total home transactions All of these rates are only getting bigger. The challenge is that the 55+ homeowner population tends to stay in place—less than 3% move per year, although it is higher for the younger portion of this cohort. Great design will make them move. *Preference for age-restricted and age-targeted communties varies widely by geography.


Delayed Marriage Equals Delayed Homeownership

Sample Newsletter

by Mollie Carmichael, Principal The share of 25-- 29 year-olds who are married is down by almost 48% for men and 43% for women from 1970. This single fact is one of the biggest game changers in the housing industry. What impact does this change in marital status mean for your housing strategies? It is huge! The housing market is unquestionably fueled by life stage changes, particularly the change of marital status and the addition (and subtraction) of children. These changes significantly affect where consumers want to live and what kind of home and community they will choose. For example: • Singles are more likely to rent and live in locations that are closer to entertainment and employment, and these areas are seeing more demand today than they have historically. •

Marriage usually ignites the desire to own a home with a variety of locational and housing choices depending on income and family present.

Cohabitation has certainly been on the rise in recent

decades, but homeownership rates for cohabitating couples are much lower than rates for married couples. •

The addition of children makes owning a home almost a necessity, given the need for yards, toys, education, and social circles.

• Children moving out often results in lifestyle changes, including different social circles, home size, and floor plan needs. Locational preferences also begin to shift. Our Consumer Insights survey of 22,000+ new home shoppers, coupled with our Housing Demand Model by Lifestage and Price Point, shows just how much housing preferences have changed. These preferences can vary widely by geography and price point, and our team can help you make sense of how these changing dynamics are affecting your market.


Consumer

Insights

81%

of prospective shoppers say the design is one of the most important factors motivating them to buy a new home.

80%

will consider a smaller backyard if it is designed as a great outdoor space.

Consumer

Insights


Consumer

Insights

Look out for multi-generational living! 39% plan on an elderly parent and 35% plan on a child over 18 living with them with their next purchase.

67% of all shoppers have pets.

Consumer

Insights


Consumer

Insights

Top Amenities Check out what more than 20,000 new home shoppers shared as the amenities they most wanted in their next community. Below are the top 25 preferences by generation. The major differences relate to the presence of children for the younger generations.

Boomers

Born 1946 to 1964

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Gen X

Born 1965 to 1979

Gen Y

Born 1980 to 2000

*

Grocery Store Close By

Grocery Store Close By

Grocery Store Close By

Restaurants Close By

Restaurants Close By

Restaurants Close By

Walking Trails

Walking Trails

Fitness Center

Fitness Center

Fitness Center

Walking Trails

Village Square

Recreational Center

Children’s Park

Shopping

Village Square

Shopping

Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas

Shopping

Recreational Center

Community High-Speed Internet

Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas

Recreational Center

Community High-Speed Internet

Community-Wide events

Shaded Areas

Shaded Areas

Children’s Park

Community High-Speed Internet

Organized On-Site Programming

Community-Wide events

Shaded Areas

Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc

Organized On-Site Programming

Yoga/Pilates Studio

Running

Dog Park

Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month

Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc

Running

*

All three generations ranked Fitness Center and Walking Trails as top amenities above retail shopping.

Wi-Fi Internet Access in Public Areas

*

Wi-Fi Internet Access and a Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, etc. are more Village Square important to the Boomers than they are to Community-Wide events Gen X and Gen Y.

*

Community-Wide events rank above pools, parks, and other typical amenities. Events can be much less expensive too!

Children’s Water /Play Area

*

Look for our future trends in what consumers want in communities and homes by generation. We believe it starts with your consumers.

Today’s shoppers rated Service & Retail as the most important amenities for their next community purchase.

A Dog Park is among the top park choices. It scored highest for Gen Y, followed by the Boomers.


Consumer research in the real estate world is often overlooked because it is difficult and expensive to conduct. However, understanding what home buyers value is critical, given the market climate and competitive field today. Our 3rd annual Consumer Insights report couples our timely market research with qualitative findings from our proprietary “What Do You Call Home?” survey to provide better information on consumer marketing strategies for your communities.

Gen X

Boomers

16 17

Gen Y

Born 1965 to 1979

Born 1946 to 1964

Born 1980 to 2000

Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area

Tennis Courts

Live Music in the Park

Yoga/Pilates Studio

Sport Fields

Remote Guard Gate, $50/month

Sport Fields

Basketball Courts

Dog Park

Children’s Water/Play Area

Tennis Courts

Cycling

Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area

Yoga/Pilates Studio

Open Space, $50/Month

Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month

Hiking Trails with Historical Markers of the Area

22

Amphitheater Outdoors

Dog Park

23

Adult-only Pool (18+)

Cycling

Art Shows in the Park

Basketball Courts

Lake, Pond, Stream, and Water Elements, $50/Month

Library

Live Music in the Park

Live Music in the Park

18 19 20 21

24 25

WATER

ADVENTURE

NATURE

ARTS &

ENTERTAINMENT

PARKS

Organized On-Site Programming

*

Events and experiences, as a whole, rank above “hard amenities” like a pool.

Community Intranet with Events, Clubs, Bulletin Boards, etc

Movies in the Park

REC CENTER

EVENTS

SERVICE & RETAIL

SPECIAL AMENITIES

Let us help! We can help optimize your community and home design for better homes, better places, and better profit. Please contact Mollie Carmichael at mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com or (949) 870-1214. WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM


Consumer

Insights New Home Shoppers

Generations

Let’s look at who’s shopping out there today for a new home! Who are they? What do they want? This infographic is part of a new series of studies by JBREC on generational differences, based on responses from 22,000 new home shoppers. This Generations infographic details each generation’s life stage and behavior in regards to purchasing a home. Visit www.realestateconsulting.com and let us help your team improve your home or community strategies by better understanding your consumers by specific location.

New Home Shoppers

Boomers

New Home Shoppers

Gen X

Born 1946 to 1964

Gen Y

Born 1965 to 1979

Born 1980 to 2000

LIFE STAGE Family

Single

21%

Family

Single

66%

14%

79%

10%

34%

have 2 or fewer people in household.

have 2 or fewer people in household.

Family

Single

44%

9%

56%

have 2 or fewer people in household. Highest percentage of college graduates at 45%

PAYMENT, PRICE, AND DOWN PAYMENT

47%

of Boomers have a down payment of 30% or greater—thanks to their home equity. This generation is looking for the lowest monthly payment but not necessarily the lowest price. Boomer payments are lower than Gen Y because they are moving down and putting down equity. Their larger down payments help! This consumer will rely heavily on equity—particularly for the consumer that needs to travel further out to purchase or “cash out” for financial security.

47% Gen X

are paying the highest monthly payments...not the Boomers. They also have the highest incomes.

of Gen Y will rely on savings for their down payment. They are the most budget-conscious of all shopping groups. They are almost 2x more likely to get their down payment from their family than Gen X.

18% will pay $2,500+/month

28% will pay $2,500+/month

19% will pay $2,500+/month

69% want a home under $2,500/month

45% want a home under $2,500/month

52% want a home under $2,500/month

33% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)

37% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)

26% are looking for a home priced above $400k (varies by geography)

WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM


Consumer

Insights

Over 62%

will use either their tablet or mobile phone while shopping for their next home.

Top kitchen features include large islands, walk-in pantries, and high-tech appliances.

Consumer

Insights


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Insight Inspire Innovate DesignLens can help you make smarter decisions and save your company money by providing you: An invaluable resource of product information. We act as your scout, preselecting projects nationwide based on input from industry representatives familiar with great design throughout the country. With the guided walk-through you can find out what new, innovative or historical projects are out there and why they’re noteworthy, which ones are must-sees and which you feel like you’ve already visited through the DesignLens website. Availability anywhere you have an internet connection: at your desk, at home, at a client or vendor’s office. It’s full-time access to inspiration. Great Ideas by taking you on a tour with industry experts through some of the country’s freshest new residential production homes and master planned communities, providing beautiful images taken by our photographer, John Bare. You can also explore some classic historical neighborhoods, as well as new innovations and trends in home building. Thousands of images are on our site with links to floor plans, site plans, project profiles and builder/ consultant contact. Unlike print magazines or other web based sites, DesignLens gives you 30-100 images of each project. That’s 300-1,000 images every month for an in-depth tour of some industry highlights. Our archive contains over a 100,000 images, floor plans, site plans, project information and contacts.

www.DESIGNLENS.com


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Good to Great? DesignLens is intended to be a tool to help you move from good to great in 2015.

From

To

Ordinary Product Extra ordinary Product Average Profit

Outstanding Profit

Auto-Pilot

Purposeful Planning

Scattered Results

Focused Results

Fractured Communities

Synergistic Communities

Management Leadership Rear View Looking Forward Reactive Proactive Builder Driven Consumer Driven Complacent Visionary

www.DESIGNLENS.com


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Insight Inspire Innovate

Online Image Tours of Great Communities Established in 2001, DesignLens is the building industry's largest online library of photo tours for: • • • •

Along with the photographs, DesignLens offers floor plans, site plans and written analyses that all help profile some of the country's finest examples of residential and commercial development. A Resource that Gives You a Competitive Edge

Model Homes Master Planned Communities Historical Neighborhoods Town/Commercial Centers

The 800+ communities and developments depicted on DesignLens have been specifically chosen for their innovations in architecture, design, land planning and/or historical significance. A Photo Library of Inspiring Designs

DesignLens also provides communication tools that let you share this valuable information with clients and colleagues, including: • Create slideshows for design boards and presentations • Share images and ideas with clients from remote locations • Make folders of your favorite images

The more than 100,000 images stored in the DesignLens archives are searchable by: • • • • • • •

Architectural Styles Housing Types Exterior Features Interior Details Green Building Square Footages and House Widths Regions, and more

www.DESIGNLENS.com 14


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Become a Subscriber For more information or to start you subscription, contact Isabell Kerins ikerins@realestateconsulting.com (949) 870-1241

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50

Top

Master-Planned Communities of 2014 2014

2013

YOY% ∆

Villages of Lake Sumter, LLC

2,601

3,419

-24%

THE IRVINE RANCH1 Orange County, CA

The Irvine Company

1,431

1,416

1%

5

NOCATEE Jacksonville, FL

The PARC Group

851

838

2%

6

RIVERSTONE Houston, TX

Johnson Development Corp.

719

791

-9%

4

MOUNTAIN’S EDGE Las Vegas, NV

Focus Property Group

609

841

-28%

10

ALAMO RANCH2 San Antonio, TX

Galo Properties

585

600

-3%

11

STAPLETON Denver, CO

Forest City Enterprises

508

570

-11%

15

ALIANA Houston, TX

Aliana Development Company

500

468

7%

20

VALENCIA Los Angeles, CA

Five Point Communities/Newhall Land

493

372

33%

9t

9

LAKEWOOD RANCH Sarasota, FL

Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, Inc.

493

618

-20%

11

7

PROVIDENCE Las Vegas, NV

Focus Property Group

487

726

-33%

8

THE WOODLANDS Houston, TX

The Woodlands Development Company

468

649

-28%

3

CINCO RANCH Houston, TX

Newland Communities

451

854

-47%

22

RANCHO MISSION VIEJO Orange County, CA Rancho Mission Viejo, LLC

451

360

25%

15

N/A

COLLEGE PARK Riverside-San Bernadino, CA

Standard Pacific Homes/Lennar Homes , LLC

444

235

89%

16

N/A

WILDWOOD AT NORTHPOINTE Houston, TX

Friendswood Development Company

442

193

129%

17

12

SUMMERLIN Las Vegas, NV

The Howard Hughes Corporation

437

566

-23%

38

PAVILION PARK AT GREAT PARK Orange County, CA

Five Point Communities

425

245

73%

14

LAKE NONA Orlando, FL

Tavistock Group

419

475

-12%

16

WOODFOREST Houston, TX

Johnson Development Corp.

417

457

-9%

13

CROSS CREEK RANCH Houston, TX

Johnson Development Corp.

411

515

-20%

18

CANYON LAKES WEST Houston,TX

Land Tejas Company

410

515

-20%

24

CANE BAY PLANTATION Charleston, SC

Gramling Brothers Real Estate & Development

385

341

13%

19

BRAMBLETON Washington, DC

Brambleton Group LLC

374

373

0%

Net Sales

Developer

Project Name and Location

Rankings

21

FIRETHORNE Houston, TX

Jefferson Development Company

368

361

2%

2014

2013

1

1

THE VILLAGES The Villages, FL (Central FL)

2

2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9t

12 13t 13t

18 19 20 21 22 23 24

25

Rank Increased

1

Rank Declined

2

Irvine Ranch includes Cypress Village, Portola Springs, Stonegate, Woodbury, and Orchard Hills. Estimate

Bold Multiple MPCs on list


Rankings

27

17

28t 28t 31

Caldwell Companies

366

268

37%

SIENNA PLANTATION Houston, TX

Johnson Development Corp.

359

445

-19%

N/A

PHILLIPS CREEK RANCH Dallas, TX

Republic Property Group

337

330

2%

23

DAYBREAK Salt Lake City, UT

Kennecott Land

337

353

-5%

28t

VALENCIA RESERVE/COVE West Palm Beach, FL GL Homes

329

299

10%

49

OAKHURST AT KINGWOOD Houston, TX

Friendswood Development Company

327

224

46%

11

EAGLE SPRINGS Houston, TX

Newland Communities

319

321

-1%

N/A

BAKER RANCH Orange County, CA

Shea Homes/Toll Brothers

309

0

N/A

34

43t

WESTRIDGE Dallas, TX

DR Horton

301

235

28%

30

MOUNTAIN HOUSE Stockton, CA

Shea Homes

296

290

2%

36

N/A

GREEN VALLEY RANCH Denver, CO

Oakwood Homes

293

253

16%

37

N/A

VIERA Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL

The Viera Company

288

262

10%

38t

N/A

GRAND MISSION ESTATES Houston, TX

Friendswood Development Company

276

197

40%

38t

27

CRYSTAL FALLS Austin, TX

Lookout Development Group

276

305

-10%

50

HIGHLANDS RANCH Denver, CO

Shea Homes

263

220

20%

41

N/A

OTAY RANCH San Diego, CA

McMillin Land Development/Baldwin & Sons

254

315

-19%

42

41t

ST. CHARLES Washington, DC

St. Charles Companies

250

241

4%

28t

SHADOW CREEK RANCH Houston, TX

Shadow Creek Ranch Development

244

304

-20%

37

TERAVISTA Austin, TX

Newland Communities

241

249

-3%

45

N/A

TREVISO BAY Naples, FL

Lennar Homes, LLC

239

215

11%

46

32

THE MEADOWS Denver, CO

Castle Rock Development Co.

238

263

-10%

47

N/A

POSITANO2 East Bay, CA

Braddock and Logan

233

143

63%

48

N/A

DEL SUR San Diego, CA

Standard Pacific Homes

231

179

29%

49

N/A

AVE MARIA Naples, FL

Barron Collier Companies

227

173

31%

50

46t

RIVERSTONE Naples, FL

GL Homes

226

230

-2%

22,238

23,112

-4%

35

40

43 44

33

32

2013

30

TOWNELAKE Houston, TX

2014

N/A

YOY% ∆

26

Net Sales

2013

Developer

2014

Project Name and Location

TOTAL

SOURCE: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (January 2015)


MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal

(949) 870-1214

mcarmichael@realestateconsulting.com

Mollie is a Principal in our custom consulting practice. For over 25 years, Mollie has helped companies increase profits dramatically by understanding the market and consumer first. She is passionate about guiding strategic planning decisions with consumer and market based methodologies in order to optimize financial results. Mollie has led research efforts throughout the country on masterplan communities and individual neighborhood design where companies. In addition to managing various consulting assignments, Mollie leads our firm’s Consumer Insights research to help our clients understand what consumers value in their homes and communities. Prior to joining the company, Mollie served as a Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Lennar, Centex Homes, Pulte Homes/Del Webb and Vice President of Residential Product Planning at The Irvine Company, where she led strategic planning, target land acquisition strategies, acquisition and market study due diligence, consumer and product segmentation, quantitative and qualitative consumer research, competitive research, as well as tactical media planning, model and sales office merchandising. Mollie has been quoted in various media publications including the Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Reuters, Businessweek, and Professional Builder. She has been a speaker on Consumer Insights and innovative planning ideas throughout the country including PCBC, ULI, UBS, and other specific venues. Affiliations ULI – Community Development Council Building Industry Association 55+ Housing Council


Our

Team

Access to Our Nationwide Team of Experts John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC takes great pride in our highly educated, resourceful and experienced team that includes practitioners with 25+ years of experience in both homebuilding and community development. As a research client, you gain access to our team across the nation to discuss market conditions, our current research and our forecasts.

Regional Offices

Client Resources John Burns CEO

Rick Palacios Director of Research

Lisa Marquis Jackson Business Development

Steve Dutra Data Management

Sacramento, CA Dean Wehrli Chicago, IL Lance Ramella

Irvine, CA

New England Jody Kahn

Mollie Carmichael

Nicole Murray

Washington, DC Dan Fulton

San Diego, CA Pete Reeb

Atlanta, GA David Kalosis

Don Walker Dallas, TX Ken Perlman

Paige Shipp

Boca Raton, FL Lesley Deutch


REGIONAL OFFICE LOCATIONS ATLANTA, GA

CHARLOTTE, NC

12600 Deerfield Parkway | Suite 100 Alpharetta, Georgia 30004

1900 Glades Road | Suite 205 Boca Raton, Florida 33431

9935-D Rea Road | Suite 273 Charlotte, North Carolina 28277

DIR: (770) 286-3493

DIR: (561) 998-5814

DIR: (704) 989-1190

CHICAGO, IL

DALLAS, TX

DENVER, CO

3108 State Route 59 | Suite 124-247 Naperville, Illinois 60564

5220 Spring Valley Road | Suite 215 Dallas, Texas 75254

1630-A 30th Street| Suite 475 Boulder, Colorado 80301

DIR: (630) 544-7826

DIR: (214) 389-9003

DIR: (720) 328-1530

IRVINE, CA

NEW ENGLAND

SACRAMENTO, CA

9140 Irvine Center Drive | Suite 200 Irvine, California 92618

155 Fleet Street | Suite 11 Portsmouth, New Hampshire 03801

7840 Madison Avenue | Suite 187 Fair Oaks, California 95628

DIR: (949) 870-1200

DIR: (603) 235-5760

DIR: (949) 870-1200

SAN DIEGO, CA

20

BOCA RATON, FL

WASHINGTON, DC

4250 Executive Square | Suite 540 La Jolla, California 92037

11710 Plaza America Drive | Suite 2000 Reston, Virginia 20190

DIR: (858) 558-8384

DIR: (703) 447-7171

WWW.REALESTATECONSULTING.COM

WISCONSIN DIR: (920) 373-6727


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