Asia Pacific Retail MarketView Q2 2014
RENTS 1.8% q-o-q
CBRE Global Research and Consulting
VISITOR ARRIVALS Jan-May 2014 5.7% y-o-y *
RETAIL SALES Jan – May 2014 6.7% y-o-y *
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Asia Pacific Index
RETAILERS MORE CAUTIOUS BUT RENTAL GROWTH PICKS UP SPEED AS DEMAND FOR PRIME SPACE REMAINS FIRM
Economic growth in Asia Pacific improved in Q2 2014, mainly on the back of the strong recovery in demand from the West which fed through into higher export growth for the region.
Tokyo saw rental growth jump by 9.1% q-o-q as demand strengthened in key retail districts where supply remains limited.
Overall rents in Tokyo are expected to surge by 10 – 15% over the remainder of the year. Rental growth in secondary areas will pick up.
Hong Kong recorded the first decline in retail rents since the end of 2008.
The outlook for major markets in Australia is positive and rents are bottoming out but growth is unlikely to arrive before 2015.
1
Retailers in Asia Pacific turned more cautious in Q2 2014 but growth in the CBRE Asia Pacific Retail Rental Index gathered pace to 1.8% q-o-q, mainly due to surging rents in Tokyo. Demand for space in core areas remained firm and this, combined with limited availability, continued to support rental growth in prime locations across the region. Retailers are more reluctant to expand in secondary locations and landlords in such areas have softened their stance towards lease negotiations.
Despite the overall cautious mood, F&B retailers continue to display strong demand for space in almost every market. Mid-range fashion retailers continue to perform well in most markets and are expanding, albeit with caution. Luxury retailers generally remain quiet with the exception of a few markets such as Tokyo, Bangkok and Manila. Retailers in this sector are very cautious with many larger groups undertaking strategy reviews and consolidating store portfolios.
Many mature markets saw more cautious expansion by retailers because of slower consumption growth, high rents and other operational costs including labour. This dragged on rents in Hong Kong, which recorded the first decline in prime retail rents since the end of 2008. Rents in Singapore displayed no growth. Leasing activity in Southeast Asia and the Pacific was stable and most markets saw average rents remained unchanged.
Overall retailer demand in Asia Pacific will weaken over the remainder of the year. Retailers in most markets will retain a cautious attitude towards expansion. Rising rental and operational costs combined with slower retail sales growth in a number of major markets will see retailers pick and choose locations for new stores carefully. There will be more consolidation of store portfolios and longer lease negotiations.
Chart 1: Average Retail Rental Change (%) Q2 2014
Top-tier luxury brands are consolidating store portfolios in mature markets. Bridge and aspirational fashion brands remain a growth story amid demand for entry-level luxury items from younger shoppers.
20%
The supply pipeline for H2 2014 is significant with around 28 million sq. ft. of new retail supply scheduled to be completed. Beijing (5.5 million sq. ft.) and Bangkok (5.1 million sq. ft.) account for the majority.
-10%
15% 10%
quarterly % change annual % change
5% 0% -5% Tokyo Shanghai Manila Beijing Taipei Delhi - Connaught Place Shenzhen Jakarta Singapore Bangkok Brisbane Sydney Melbourne Perth Auckland CBD Wellington CBD Delhi - Khan Market Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Mumbai - Linking Road Mumbai - Colaba Causeway Hong Kong Adelaide
Hot Topics
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. * Source: Tourist arrivals figure covers 12 markets in Asia Pacific including Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam Retail sales figure covers six n markets in Asia Pacific including Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
ECONOMIC GROWTH PICKS UP BUT RETAIL SALES GROWTH CONTINUES TO SLOW
Consumer confidence in Asia Pacific remained broadly stable in Q2 2014. India saw the biggest improvement in the region as the election of a new government boosted sentiment. However, a few markets recorded declines, led by Hong Kong and Japan. In Hong Kong the slowdown in Mainland Chinese tourist spending has impacted sentiment whilst in Japan the increase in sales tax initially affected consumer confidence. Nevertheless, sound economic fundamentals and positive job prospects will continue to underpin steady domestic consumption demand across the region in coming quarters. Manpower’s Net Employment Outlook indicator for the region stood at 23 for Q3 2014, a stable reading compared to Q2 2014.
2014F
6.0%
2015F
4.0% 2.0% 0.0% World
Asia Pacific
Japan
Thailand
Taiwan
Hong Kong, China
Australia
South Korea
Singapore
New Zealand
India
Malaysia
Vietnam
Indonesia
-2.0%
Source: Oxford Economics, Jul 2014.
Chart 3: Consumer Confidence Index 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Asia Pacific Global
Consumption sentiment holds steady
8.0%
China
Economic growth in Asia Pacific improved in Q2 2014, mainly on the back of the strong recovery in demand from the West which fed through into higher export growth for the region. However, macro trends diverged slightly among the two largest economies in the region. China saw faster growth as the government took steps to support the economy, with GDP recorded at 7.5% y-o-y this quarter compared to 7.4% y-o-y in Q1 2014. In contrast, growth in Japan stuttered as higher sales taxes impacted business sentiment. Elsewhere, the pace of growth in Australia picked up. New governments in India, Indonesia and Thailand have stabilised the political outlook in these markets. Consensus estimates for regional growth in 2014 have firmed at around 4.6% y-o-y, supported by the ongoing recovery in the developed world.
Chart 2: GDP Growth by Country (%, Y-o-Y)
Philippines
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
Economic growth picks up
India Indonesia Philippines China Thailand Hong Kong New Zealand Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Australia Taiwan Japan Korea
Q2 2014
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Index values above 100 indicate an optimistic outlook
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Jul 2014.
Retail sales growth continues to slow
2
The region is expected to see growth of 4.6% in 2014, exceeding projections for growth in the United States and Eurozone. In 2015, stronger growth in markets including India, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand will offset slightly slower economic expansion in China and Japan. Monetary policy in the region is expected to tighten slightly due to the tapering of the United States’ Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program and a mild pick-up in inflation.
20.0%
Apr-13
15.0%
Apr-14
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
South Korea
Japan
Australia
Hong Kong
Vietnam
-10.0% China
Outlook looks positive
Chart 4: Retail Sales Growth (%, Y-o-Y)
Indonesia
Retail sales in Hong Kong and Thailand, which depend relatively more on the tourist trade, declined this quarter despite solid domestic demand. Retail sales growth in China remained stable but figures in tier I cities trailed the rest of the market. In Japan, retail sales declined after the sales tax increase but the negative impact of the tax was weaker than had been expected. Discretionary spending in Australia improved on the back of the strong property and stock market. Total tourist arrivals in 12 countries tracked were up 9.4% y-o-y between April and May. Thailand saw some fallout from political instability with total arrivals down 2.6% y-o-y in April and May.
Source: Statistics departments for various countries, Jul 2014. Note: Trailing 12-Month average
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
RETAILERS REMAIN CAUTIOUS OVERALL BUT F&B AND FAST FASHION STILL EXPANDING
Retailers in Asia Pacific remained cautious overall in Q2 2014 as slower consumption, higher rents and increased operational costs resulted in limited expansion. Demand is more selective and generally focused on the best spaces in prime high streets and shopping centres. Despite the overall cautious mood, F&B retailers continue to display strong demand for space in almost every market. Foreign and domestic groups in this category continue to perform well in China but high-end restaurants are struggling under the impact of the government’s anticorruption campaign. Upmarket F&B operators are introducing mass market brands as they adjust to the change in consumption trends. Mid-range fashion retailers continue to perform well in most markets and are expanding, albeit with caution as many locations are now well served by their store networks. Retailers in this category are investing in opening new stores in underpenetrated markets including Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan. During the quarter, UNIQLO’s parent company Fast Retailing announced plans to open 50 stores across Australia by 2017. Luxury retailers quiet but bridge brands continue to grow Luxury retailers are very cautious with many larger groups undertaking strategy reviews and looking to consolidate store portfolios. During the quarter Tiffany & Co. announced it would open seven new stores in Asia Pacific whilst closing two. Louis Vuitton is expected to close its Northeast China flagship store in Shenyang upon termination of the lease. Despite the subdued overall picture in this sector, luxury retailers are still active in a few markets. Japan saw renewed interest from top tier brands on the back of improved economic prospects and consumption sentiment. Retailers in this category are also displaying stronger expansionary demand in Australia and Southeast Asia. In Bangkok the Central Embassy mall opened this quarter with over 30 luxury brands including seven new market entrants. Bridge and aspirational brands – particularly men’s fashion remain a growth story in Australia and China as retailers look to tap into growing demand for entry-level luxury items from younger shoppers. Consumer electronics stores continue to grow
3
Consumer electronics retailers were in expansion mode this quarter, with Samsung and Sony opening new stores in Bangkok and Manila. Elsewhere, Apple opened a new store in Tokyo and will reportedly open 20 new stores in China between now and 2016. Many of these stores will be located inside shopping malls rather than standalone locations. Shopping centre landlords are more proactive in introducing new brands and the © CBRE Ltd. 2014
Chart 5: New Leases and Openings by Location 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Q1 2014 Prime
Secondary
Q2 2014 Suburban
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
F&B and mid-range fashion continue to expand
Q2 2014
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - RETAILER ACTIVITY
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
Chart 6: New Leases and Openings by Trade 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Q1 2014 Luxury and Business Coffee and Restaurants Mid Range Fashion Other
Q2 2014 Consumer Electronics Value and Denim Specialist Clothing Homeware and Department Stores Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
turnover rent system is attractive to retailers. In the street shop segment, high rents and limited availability is impacting leasing demand in a number of locations. Southeast Asia emerging as hotspot for department stores Traditional department stores continue to struggle in China and Korea but are expanding in Southeast Asia. During the quarter AEON Group and Lotte Group both announced plans to open stores in Jakarta whilst Marks & Spencer intends to enter new markets including Vietnam, Taiwan and Australia. Other active sectors this quarter included fitness centres. These groups continue to steadily expand across the region and have been particularly active in China and Singapore of late.
3
RENTAL GROWTH GATHERS PACE; NEW SUPPLY DECLINES BUT PIPELINE IS SIGNIFICANT
Many mature markets saw more cautious expansion by retailers because of slower consumption growth and high operational costs. This dragged on rents, with Hong Kong recording the first decline in prime retail rents since the end of 2008 and rents in Singapore remaining unchanged. Leasing activity in Southeast Asia and the Pacific was stable and most markets saw average rents remained unchanged. New completions decline but pipeline is significant New retail supply in Asia moderated to 3.7 million sq. ft. this quarter. With the exception of the 839,592 sq. ft. Beijing Mall, all new supply completed during Q2 2014 was in Southeast Asian markets. Bangkok saw the completion of two major new shopping centres including the 753,480 sq. ft. Central Embassy. Two new retail projects were completed in the Pacific; The Emporium in Melbourne (484,376 sq. ft.) and a portion of 45 Queen Street in Auckland (4,300 sq. ft.). The supply pipeline in Asia Pacific for H2 2014 is significant with around 28 million sq. ft. of new retail supply scheduled to be completed. Beijing (5.5 million sq. ft.) and Bangkok (5.1 million sq. ft.) account for the majority, most of which is in decentralised areas. New retail supply in key markets in Australia and New Zealand is limited, the largest new addition being the 94,088 sq. ft. Broadway on the Mall in Brisbane.
4
Markets at risk of oversupply include Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City which will see total retail stock increase by 100% and 33% respectively in the next 18 months. However, leasing demand in these markets is increasing gradually and retail space per capita in Vietnam is still very low. In Mumbai several developers have responded to the sluggish leasing market by delaying the completion of new projects. Others are considering converting new retail projects currently under construction to residential buildings or other commercial use.
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
2015
2014
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
Chart 8: Asia Pacific Retail Rent Index 5%
180
4%
170
3%
160
2%
150
1%
140
0%
130
(Q1 2002 = 100)
Tokyo saw rental growth jump by 9.1% q-o-q as demand strengthened in key retail districts where supply remains limited. Other strong performers included Shanghai (up 2.5% q-o-q), Beijing (up 2.4% q-o-q) and Manila as there continued to be strong demand for quality spaces in key areas - especially units suitable for flagship stores – despite slower overall leasing activity and a weaker appetite for expansion.
Chart 7: Development Pipeline
Tokyo Bangkok Beijing Kuala Lumpur New Delhi Shenzhen Hanoi Guangzhou Shanghai Sydney Singapore Manila Melbourne Jakarta Brisbane Mumbai Ho Chi Minh… Adelaide Hong Kong Perth Taipei Auckland Wellington
Growth in the CBRE Asia Pacific Retail Rental Index gathered pace to 1.8% q-o-q in Q2 2014, mainly driven by strong growth in Tokyo. However, more caution among retailers impacted rental growth in a number of key markets including Hong Kong and Singapore. Prime rents across the region were largely stable on the back of tight vacancy in core shopping districts.
-1%
120 Quarterly % Change Index (RHS)
-2%
110
-3%
100 2002 Q3 2003 Q1 2003 Q3 2004 Q1 2004 Q3 2005 Q1 2005 Q3 2006 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q1 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
Rental growth picks up speed
Development Pipeline (‘000 sq. m.)
Q2 2014
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS – SUPPLY AND RENTAL MOVEMENT
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
Chart 9: Strongest Average Rental Growth Y-o-Y 20% 18%
17.6%
16% 14% 12%
9.3%
10%
8.1%
8%
5.6%
6%
5.1%
5.0% 3.1%
4% 2% 0%
Tokyo
Shanghai
Beijing
Taipei
Manila Singapore Asia Pacific Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
Q2 2014
MARKET OUTLOOK
OVERALL RENTS TO INCREASE FURTHER BUT AT A SLOWER RATE OF GROWTH Demand set to weaken in second half Overall retailer demand in Asia Pacific will weaken in H2 2014. Retailers in most markets will retain a cautious attitude towards expansion. Rising rental and operational costs combined with slower retail sales growth in a number of major markets will see retailers select locations for new stores very carefully. There will be more consolidation of existing portfolios and the lease negotiation process will take longer. The best spaces in prime high streets and shopping centres will continue to see strong demand but the lack of such space will hinder leasing activity.
Outlook for Southeast Asia and India comparatively upbeat Markets in Southeast Asia remain positive. In Thailand, consumption sentiment has improved following the military coup and the gradual recovery of tourism arrivals will support retail sales and leasing activity in Bangkok. Manila and Jakarta will see further rental growth on the back of robust expansion from value retailers across a number of categories. Rents in Kuala Lumpur and Vietnam will come under pressure from the large volume of new supply but high quality shopping centres will continue to perform well.
Tokyo is the only mature market in Asia expected to see further rental growth this year. Key retail districts in the city continue to see strong demand and intense competition for prime space, a trend that will continue to fuel rental increases in the coming months, although the rate of growth is expected to gradually decelerate. Overall rents in Tokyo are expected to surge by 10 – 15% over the remainder of the year, with secondary areas set to achieve stronger growth.
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
continue to focus on their top requirements in proven and mature markets with strong spending patterns. Across the whole market negotiations will take longer as more due diligence is involved. Rental growth in Beijing and Shanghai will weaken whilst Guangzhou and Shenzhen will see rents remain at current levels. Prime locations will see strong leasing demand but rental growth will moderate. Secondary and fringe areas could see a mild rental correction.
Activity is expected to pick up in key cities in India following the election of a stable single party government, which has boosted consumer sentiment. New Delhi will continue to benefit from the influx of international brands and expansionary demand from domestic retailers. Low vacancy in prime shopping centres will provide further support to rental growth in H2 2014. In Mumbai, rents in shopping malls will remain stable but high streets may experience further rental declines.
Hong Kong and Singapore to see quiet second half Among other mature markets, Hong Kong and Singapore will see retailers stay in wait-and-see mode in H2 2014. In Hong Kong expected rental growth in tier I streets for this year has been revised down to flat whilst secondary locations expect to see rental declines of up to 15%. Singapore expects rents to remain stable but vacancy may increase if take-up in new retail developments remains slow.
In the Pacific, the outlook for major markets in Australia is positive and retailer demand is expected to pick up as the uplift in discretionary spending continues. Rents are bottoming out but growth is unlikely to arrive before 2015.
In key markets in China the outlook remains flat and demand is unlikely to pick up until early 2015. Retailers will Chart 10: Asia Pacific Retail Rental Cycle Q2 2014
Rental Decline Accelerating
Rental Decline Slowing
Rental Growth Accelerating
M Mumbai
S Shenzhen P Perth
5
Hanoi H
Guangzhou Ho Chi Minh City Adelaide Brisbane Sydney Melbourne Wellington
G H A B S M W
NB. Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed. The rental cycle is intended to display the trend in average rents
Š CBRE Ltd. 2014
Manila M Jakarta J Auckland A
Rental Growth Slowing Beijing Shanghai Taipei Tokyo Singapore New Delhi
Hong Kong H B S Kuala Lumpur K T T S N
5
B Bangkok
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
Q2 2014
MARKET SUMMARY
PRIME RETAIL RENTS IN HONG KONG DECLINE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE Q3 2008
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
City Beijing
Market Highlights • •
Shanghai
• •
Average rents fell -0.4% q-o-q to a near two-year low. Low net absorption amid limited space in prime shopping centres Mid-range fashion and F&B still active but focusing on prime malls.
Shenzhen
•
Market showed signs of stabilising but leasing momentum remains slow, especially in emerging areas. Rents up less than 0.1% q-o-q and vacancy down to 10%. Two new malls scheduled to open this quarter delayed launching due to low occupancy.
• • •
Taipei
• • •
Tokyo
• • •
6
Rental growth rebounded to 2.5% but vacancy surged to 7.3% as a few malls underwent renovations or adjusted their tenant mix. New supply is limited to the refurbished 188,370 sq. ft. Yangguang Centre on Huaihai Middle Road.
• • •
Hong Kong
Demand remained weak with very few noteworthy leasing deals. Multi-brand cosmetics and pharmacies – exclusively local groups – continue to account for the bulk of leasing activity. Prime high street retail rents declined for the first time since the end of 2008. Rents up slightly by 0.6% q-o-q. Leasing on high streets remains quiet as retailers prefer shopping centres and department stores. Mid-range fashion retailers continue to enter/expand. Firm demand across most sectors amid intense competition for prime space. More retailers eyeing side streets and rental growth in such areas is expected to pick up soon. Impact of higher consumption tax has been weaker than expected.
Seoul
• • •
Shoppers are more cautious, value retailers doing well. Hypermarkets performing strongly but new openings are slowing. 50,600 sq. m. of new space is due in H2 2014 when Parnas Mall and Enter 6 are completed.
Singapore
• • •
Leasing activity was stagnant and average rents were unchanged. Slower retail sales growth, high rents and rising cost of labour are challenging retailers. Strong uptick in demand from retail banking after recent regulatory change.
Kuala Lumpur
• • •
Prime and average rents unchanged but uptrend in vacancy continued. Oversupply still a major concern, particularly in suburban areas. Rental outlook for well-established malls in core locations is positive.
Manila
• • •
Average rents up by 2.4% q-o-q, vacancy at 4.0%. International mid-range fashion retailers account for the bulk of expansionary demand. Landlords very bullish, further rental growth expected.
• • •
Consumer sentiment rebounded after military coup in May. Central Embassy Mall opened with numerous luxury brands. Rents in prime shopping centres will continue to increase.
Bangkok
Rents
Rental growth moderated to 2.4% q-o-q after reaching a nine-quarter high in Q1 2014. Vacancy stood at 10.8%. F&B still active but fine dining continues to struggle due to anti-corruption campaign. Traditional department stores are under pressure.
Guangzhou
• •
Demand
Note: Demand and rental arrows represent six month outlook
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
Q2 2014
MARKET SUMMARY
SUBDUED DEMAND IN MUMBAI AS HIGH COSTS DETER RETAILER ACTIVITY Ho Chi Minh City
Market Highlights
• •
Prime rents declined as upscale shopping malls in the CBD repositioned to become more mid-market and family oriented. Vacancy rose to 11.9% despite no new supply this quarter. Huge pipeline in decentralised areas will put rents under pressure.
Hanoi
• • •
Shopping centre rents fell 1.8% q-o-q as new projects opened. Baskin Robbins opens first shop, more overseas F&B names to follow. New supply means rental outlook is weak despite recent economic recovery.
Jakarta
• • •
New mall Lippo Mall Puri @ The St. Moritz opened in West Jakarta. Gross rents up by 1.8% q-o-q, prime rents up by 0.4% q-o-q. Leasing market will remain robust on the back of positive economic prospects and the election of Joko Widodo as President.
New Delhi
• • •
F&B retailers very active for space in shopping malls. Around 2.5 million sq. ft. of new supply scheduled for H2 2014. Aerocity and Noida should see leasing activity pick up as new projects are completed from 2015.
Mumbai
•
Retail demand remained subdued as high real estate and other operational costs deterred activity. Rents in major high streets will stabilise, shopping centres may see a slight increase.
•
• Sydney
• • • • • •
Rents in the CBD remained stable, average vacancy declined to 1.5% The new Emporium and GPO malls are performing very well. The large pipeline over the next three years means the market will rely on more international retailer arrivals to absorb the new space.
Perth
•
Rents and incentives in CBD were unchanged. Vacancy remained tight but was masked by the re-emergence of pop-up stores. Leasing activity is expected to improve in H2 2014 and rents will remain relatively stable.
Brisbane
• • •
Landlords held face rents firm but offered more incentives. Demand for prime locations driven by F&B and international fashion groups. New supply is mostly refurbishment from landlords looking to accommodate demand for flagship stores from international retailers.
Adelaide
• • •
Contraction in average rents moderated to 0.4% q-o-q. Leasing demand slowed as domestic fashion retailers consolidated. Short term rental outlook is brighter but further contraction is expected to be driven by softer demand for secondary locations.
Auckland
•
Prime rents were flat. Availability in prime CBD strips expected to tighten due to strong enquiries from Australian chained clothing and footwear retailers. Improved consumer confidence expected to drive further growth in retail spending this year.
• 7
Wellington
• •
Subdued core retail sales growth and consumer confidence resulted in limited leasing activity. Retailers will stay cautious and prime rents are expected to remain stable.
Note: Demand and rental arrows represent six month outlook
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
Rents
Steady demand from international retailers positioning to secure prime locations to capitalise on the expected economic upswing. F&B, luxury and mid-range fashion all active. Rents remained stable. Stronger retail sales may take more than 12 months to translate into rental growth.
Melbourne
•
Demand
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
City
7
Q2 2014
KEY INDICATORS
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
Table 1: Shopping Centre Prime Retail Rents Country
City
Local rent currency and measurement
Prime Rent (Local currency and measurement)
Prime Rent (US$ psf/ annum)
Last 3 Months q-o-q (%)
Last 12 Months y-o-y (%)
China
Beijing
RMB sq. m. p. d.
122
664
0.0
0.0
China
Shanghai
RMB sq. m. p. d.
95
518
0.0
5.6
China
Guangzhou
RMB sq. m. p. d.
107
584
0.0
0.0
China
Shenzhen
RMB sq. m. p. d.
59
323
0.0
5.9
Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur
RM sq. ft. p.m.
150
560
0.0
0.0
Philippines
Manila
PHP sq. m. p.m.
1,490
38
2.1
6.4
Singapore
Singapore
S$ sq. ft. p.m.
51
489
0.0
4.5
Thailand
Bangkok
THB sq. m. p.m.
3,100
116
0.0
0.0
Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh City
US$ sq. m. p.m.
170
190
-15.0
-15.0
Vietnam
Hanoi
US$ sq. m. p.m.
120
139
0.0
-4.0
India
New Delhi
INR sq. ft. p.m.
1,200
240
0.0
9.1
India
Mumbai
INR sq. ft. p.m.
625
125
0.0
-3.8
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014.
Table 2: High Street Prime Retail Rents Country
City
Local rent currency and measurement
Prime Rent (Local currency and measurement)
Prime Rent (US$ psf/ annum)
Last 3 Months q-o-q (%)
Last 12 Months y-o-y (%) 0.0
China
Hong Kong
HK$ sq. ft. p.m.
2,800
4,335
0.0
Taiwan
Taipei
NT$ sq. m. p.m.
11,253
387
0.0
0.6
Japan
Tokyo
JPY tsubo p.m.
300,000
999
9.1
17.6
India
New Delhi
INR sq. ft. p.m.
1,500
299
0.0
7.1
Australia
Sydney
A$ sq. m. p.a.
10,475
918
0.0
0.0
Australia
Melbourne
A$ sq. m. p.a.
8,800
771
0.0
0.0
Australia
Adelaide
A$ sq. m. p.a.
4,400
386
0.0
10.0
Australia
Brisbane
A$ sq. m. p.a.
6,645
583
0.0
0.0
Australia
Perth
A$ sq. m. p.a.
3,600
316
0.0
0.0
New Zealand
Auckland
NZ$ sq. m. p.a
3,559
289
0.0
0.0
New Zealand
Wellington
NZ$ sq. m. p.a
2,399
195
0.0
0.0
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2014. Note: The prime retail rents represent the typical “achievable” open market headline rent which an international retail chain would be expected to pay for a ground floor retail unit (either high street or shopping centre depending on the market) of up to 200 sq.m. of the highest quality and specification and in the best location in a given market. The quoted rents reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed in the market at the time but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. In these circumstances, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conditions, but the same criteria on building size and specification apply. The figures exclude any leasing incentives or “key money” (premium, or initial payment, to secure the right to occupy the unit).
8
Local currency rents for certain markets are expressed in terms of Zone A (ITZA), an approach which places a higher value on certain parts of a shop more than others. The number reported is the value placed on the most expensive part of the shop and will therefore be much higher than the average per sq m value for the entire unit.
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
Q2 2014
RETAIL TRANSACTIONS AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Market
Development Name
Size (sq. ft.)
Occupier
Retail Sector
Retailer Country Origin
Indonesia, Jakarta
Lipppo Mall Puri @ The St. Moritz
179,959
Parkson
Homeware and Department Store
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Queen’s Road Central
55,000
ZARA
Mid - Range Fashion
Spain
Japan, Tokyo
Apple Store Omotesando
21,470
APPLE
Consumer Electronics
United States
China, Shanghai
Mall 818
18,300
Old Navy
Mid - Range Fashion
United States
Australia, Sydney
Pitt Street Mall
15,985
UNIQLO
Value and Denim
Japan
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
Table 3: Selected Leasing Transactions in Q2 2014
Table 4: Key Retail Developments in 2014 Country
9
Market
Submarket
Development Name
Expected Date of Completion
Estimated size (sq. ft.)
China
Beijing
Others
Inter IKEA
Q4 2014
2,260,421
China
Shanghai
Xintiandi
Yangguang Centre
Q4 2014
188,370
China
Guangzhou
Pearl River New City
Seasons Mall – Winter
Q4 2014
1,044,108
China
Shenzhen
Futian
Century Palace Shopping Centre
Q3 2014
635,076
Taiwan
Taipei
Xinyi Planned Area
Breeze Song-gao
Q4 2014
142,333
Japan
Tokyo
Ginza
KIRARITO GINZA
Q4 2014
178,457
Singapore
Singapore
Downtown Core
Marina Square (Retail Extension)
Q4 2014
200,000
Thailand
Bangkok
CBD
The Equartier
Q3 2014
538,200
Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur
Suburban
IOI City Mall
Q4 2014
1,350,000
Vietnam
Hanoi
Non-core
Vincom Mega Mall (Times City) (Phase 2)
Q4 2014
107,639
Vietnam
HCMC
CBD
Times Square
Q4 2014
34,444
The Philippines Manila
Pasig City
Estancia
Q3 2014
226,042
Indonesia
Jakarta
Secondary
Lippo Mall @ Holland Village
Q4 2014
601,858
India
Mumbai
Worli
Century Greenspan
Q4 2014
90,000
India
New Delhi
Noida
DLF Mall of India (NOIDA)
Q3 2014
1,650,000
Australia
Brisbane
CBD
Broadway on the Hall
Q4 2014
94,088
Australia
Melbourne
CBD
Scots Church
Q3 2014
21,528
Australia
Sydney
CBD
Barangaroo South Commercial Building
Q3 2014
75,456
New Zealand
Auckland
Core
SugarTree Stage 1
Q4 2014
21,528
© CBRE Ltd. 2014
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Q2 2014
CONTACTS For more information about this Regional MarketView, please contact:
Asia Pacific Retail | MarketView
APAC Research Henry Chin, Ph.D. Head of Research, Asia Pacific CBRE 12/F Three Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central, Hong Kong t: +852 2820 8160 e: henry.chin@cbre.com.hk
Jonathan Hsu Director, Asia Pacific CBRE 12/F Three Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central, Hong Kong t: +852 2820 2957 e: jonathan.hsu@cbre.com.hk
Liz Hung Manager, Asia Pacific CBRE 12/F Three Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central, Hong Kong t: +852 2820 6557 e: liz.hung@cbre.com.hk
For more information regarding Global Research and Consulting activity, please contact: Nick Axford, Ph.D. Global Head of Research Global Research and Consulting t: +44 (0) 7557 896 889 e: nick.axford@cbre.com Follow Nick on Twitter: @NickAxford1
Richard Barkham , Ph.D., MRICS. Global Chief Economist Global Research and Consulting t: +44 20 7182 2000 e: richard.barkham@cbre.com
Neil Blake, Ph.D. Head of Research, UK and EMEA Global Research and Consulting t: +44 20 7182 2133 e: neil.blake@cbre.com Follow Neil on Twitter: @neilblake123
Henry Chin, Ph.D. Head of Research, Asia Pacific Global Research and Consulting t: +852 2820 8160 e: henry.chin@cbre.com.hk
Raymond Wong, Managing Director, Americas Research Global Research and Consulting t: +1 416 815 2353 e: raymond.wong@cbre.com
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Global Research and Consulting This report was prepared by the CBRE APAC Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting – a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. Disclaimer
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All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
Š CBRE Ltd. 2014