Fellows-elect

THE RAMSAY MURRAY LECTURE 2021

The 2021 Ramsay Murray Lecture was given by Rana Mitter, Professor of the History and Politics of Modern China and a Fellow of St Cross College at the University of Oxford. He provided a stimulating and thought-provoking account on the theme of ‘Modern China Today: Where China Goes Next’.

The occasion was even more than usually noteworthy for being the first major event in the Quarry Whitehouse Auditorium and, taking advantage of the technology available in the new space, the first hybrid event reaching beyond the College community where we simultaneously had an in-person (and suitably distanced) as well as a global audience who viewed the streaming of the lecture. This added to the nerves of those introducing the speaker and of the Senior Tutor as he anticipated potential challenges in the running of the Q&A.

Whilst acknowledging the inherent dangers of prediction in politics and social science, Professor Mitter gave a clear exposition of his views on what he termed ‘China’s DNA’ – authoritarianism, consumerism, globalisation and global ambitions, and technology – as the major forces shaping the country’s recent past and likely to be the sources of its future conduct. Acknowledging his debt to George Kennan’s 1947 analysis of Soviet conduct, Professor Mitter also wove in the significant element of historical memory as being of great significance if we are properly to understand what he termed the ‘mindset’ of China’s leadership as well as its mainstream culture. The mix of traditional thought (adapted), Marxism-Leninism, memories of a century of weakness to 1949 in the face of external threats and a quest for economic legitimacy thus defines the possible and the thinkable into the twenty-first century.

In his previous work Professor Mitter has highlighted the significance of the Second World War (starting, from a Chinese perspective, in 1937 or even 1931) in shaping subsequent Chinese identity. He stressed both this point and the fact that such is the significance of the period for contemporary China that the ruling Communist party is even prepared to sanction an acknowledgement of some aspects of the Nationalist government’s role in the struggle with Japan.

Mitter’s analysis developed several points of tension where the ‘DNA matrix’ contains contradictions that threaten to split rather than unite society, even as the emphasis on traditional thought attempts to highlight solidarities. He stressed inequality, economic and social dislocation, migration, urban-rural tensions, the rise of individualism in a highly networked society and, especially, the challenge of climate change and environmental threats. The rise of China and Chinese power is evidenced by the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, economic growth, impressive poverty reduction, technological development, foreign aid, improved healthcare and a high-profile global image. However, he suggested that it may contain, as any power’s rise must do, elements that threaten it. At one level this can be seen in a fractured global image: the lack of transparency on Covid-19, events in Xinjiang or Hong Kong and ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy cut against elements of Chinese soft power such as vaccine production, foreign aid or technological prowess. Internally, the growing awareness of environmental issues and the potential for inequality and even authoritarianism itself to undermine the ruling elite’s approach also pose major challenges for twenty-firstcentury China.

Professor Mitter gave full and lively responses to questions that his subject had generated and that were proof in themselves of the ways in which he had admirably met the donor’s brief that an academic topic must also be accessible. Such was the stimulating nature of the lecture that the pressure of time meant that several questions went unanswered. In the event this proved to be the Senior Tutor’s main headache as, thanks to the excellent facilities and to the admirably professional technical support, any fears about the hybrid format proved groundless and the event could be declared a great success.

Dr Mike Sewell, Senior Tutor