Aging Trends and Patterns: World and United States Wan He, Ph.D. U.S. Census Bureau
Presentation at Argentum Senior Executive Conference, May 10, 2016, Denver, CO
Any views expressed on statistical and methodological issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
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FINDINGS FROM CENSUS BUREAU PUBLICATIONS An Aging World: 2015 (Issued 2016) 65+ in the United States: 2010 (Issued 2014) Older Americans With a Disability: 2008-2012 (Issued 2014)
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FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION •
Global aging trends & patterns
•
Variations among world regions/countries
•
Growth and geographic distribution of U.S. older population
•
Societal support burden
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Summary and discussion
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Population Size & Proportion
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World Total Population and Population Aged 65 and Over by Sex: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (Numbers in millions)
Year
Total population Both sexes
Male
2015
7,253.3
2030 2050
Percentage aged 65 and over Population aged 65 and over of total
Female
Both sexes
Female
Both sexes
Male
Male
Female
3,652.0
3,601.3
617.1
274.9
342.2
8.5
7.5
9.5
8,315.8
4,176.7
4,139.1
998.7
445.2
553.4
12.0
10.7
13.4
9,376.4
4,681.7
4,694.7
1,565.8
698.5
867.3
16.7
14.9
18.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Population Aged 65 and Over by World Region: 2015 to 2050 (In millions)
1600 1400 1200
Africa
1000 Asia
800 600 400
Europe 200
Latin America and the Caribbean
0 2015
Northern America/Oceania 2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Percent Distribution of Population Aged 65 and Over by World Region: 2015 and 2050 9.5%
6.6% 6.6%
7.6%
9.6%
8.9%
Africa
Asia
Europe
21.0%
55.3%
12.6%
Latin America and the Caribbean
62.3%
Northern America/Oceania
2015
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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China’s Older Population vs. Total Populations of Selected Countries (In thousands) 2015
2030
2050
400,000
400,000
400,000
350,000
350,000
350,000 Australia
300,000
300,000
300,000 Germany
250,000
250,000
250,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
China Egypt
Egypt 150,000
150,000
150,000 China
100,000
100,000 China
100,000
Japan
Japan
50,000
50,000
50,000
0
0
0
65+
All ages
65+
All ages
Japan
65+
All ages
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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The World’s 25 Oldest Countries: 2015 and 2050 (Percentage of population aged 65 and over)
2015
Asia Europe Northern America
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Population Aged 65 and Over in the United States: 1900 to 2050 Population (left scale)
Millions
As percent of total population (right scale)
Percent 25
90 80
20
70 60
15 50 40 10 30 20
5
10 0
0 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
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Speed of Aging
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Number of Years for Percent Aged 65 and Older in Total Population to Triple: Selected Countries From 7 percent to 14 percent France (1865-2022)
115
Sweden (1890-2015)
26
69
Hungary (1941-2021)
20
53
Poland (1966-2024)
27
45
13
26
16
21
Japan (1970-2007)
25
China (2001-2035)
23
South Korea (2000-2027)
40
73
United States (1944-2033)
Brazil (2012-2050)
42
85
Australia (1938-2037)
Chile (1999-2041)
From 14 percent to 21 percent
18
17 12 11 9
157
125
99 89
80
58
42 38 37 34
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Sources: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, 2014 National Population Projections.
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Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 1950 to 2050 (In percent) 18
16
14
Under 5 12
10
8
65 and over
6
4
2
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
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Causes of Population Aging
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Ten Countries With Highest Life Expectancy at Birth in 2015: At Birth, Age 65, and Age 80 by Sex, in 2015 and 2050 (In years) Life Expectancy at Birth 2015 Both sexes
2050
Male Female
Both sexes
Life Expectancy at 65
Life Expectancy at 80
2015
2015
2050
Male Female
Male Female
Male Female
2050
Male Female
Male Female
Japan
84.7
81.4
88.3
91.6
88.4
95.0
20.0
25.2
25.0
30.6
9.4
12.6
12.6
16.8
Singapore
84.7
82.1
87.5
91.6
88.7
94.6
20.6
24.5
25.5
30.3
11.5
12.9
14.1
16.9
Macau
84.5
81.6
87.6
85.1
82.2
88.1
20.2
24.9
20.7
25.3
10.1
13.4
10.5
13.8
Hong Kong
82.9
80.2
85.8
84.4
81.6
87.4
18.9
23.1
20.1
24.6
8.5
10.9
9.8
12.8
Switzerland
82.5
80.2
84.9
84.2
81.6
87.0
19.0
22.4
20.1
24.3
8.4
10.4
9.7
12.6
Australia
82.2
79.7
84.7
84.1
81.4
86.9
19.0
22.5
20.1
24.3
8.9
11.0
9.9
12.8
Italy
82.1
79.5
84.9
84.1
81.3
87.0
18.6
22.4
20.0
24.3
8.7
10.7
9.8
12.7
Sweden
82.0
80.1
84.0
84.0
81.5
86.6
18.6
21.5
20.0
23.9
7.9
9.8
9.5
12.3
Canada
81.8
79.2
84.5
83.9
81.1
86.8
18.9
22.7
20.1
24.4
9.4
11.6
10.1
13.0
France
81.8
78.7
85.0
83.9
80.9
87.0
18.9
22.9
20.0
24.5
8.6
10.8
9.7
12.7
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, unpublished lifetables.
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Total Fertility Rate by World Region: 2015, 2030, and 2050 4.4
2015
2030
2050
3.5
Replacement Level (2.1)
2.8
2.1
2.1
2.0 1.9
1.9 1.6
Africa
Asia
2.0
1.6
1.7
Europe
2.0 2.0
2.0 1.8
1.8
Latin America and the Caribbean
2.2
Northern America
Oceania
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Ten Countries With Lowest Total Fertility Rate in 2015: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (In years)
2015
2030
Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland
0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3
China India United States
2050 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland
1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5
Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland
1.6 2.5 2.0
China India United States
1.6 2.2 2.0
China India United States
1.7 2.1 2.0
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Population Age Structure
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Population by Age and Sex in China: 2015 and 2050 (In millions)
2015
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 1970 and 2010 (In millions)
Baby Boom
2010
1970 85 and over
85 and over
80 to 84
80 to 84
75 to 79
75 to 79 Female
Male
70 to 74 65 to 69
65 to 69
60 to 64
60 to 64
55 to 59
55 to 59
50 to 54
50 to 54
45 to 49
45 to 49
40 to 44
40 to 44
35 to 39
35 to 39
30 to 34
30 to 34
25 to 29
25 to 29
20 to 24
20 to 24
15 to 19
15 to 19
10 to 14
10 to 14
5 to 9
5 to 9
0 to 4
0 to 4 20
10
0
10
Male
70 to 74
20
15
10
Female
5
0
5
10
15
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 and 2010 censuses.
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Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 2030 and 2050 (In millions)
Baby Boom
2050 85 and over 80 to 84
Male
Female
75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 15
10
5
0
5
10
15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
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Population by Age Group for China and India: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (In millions) 1800 1600 1400 1200 65+
1000
15-64 0-14
800 600 400 200 0 China
India
China
2015
India
2030
China
India
2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Societal Support Burden
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Dependency Ratios for the World: 2015 to 2050 100 Youth dependency ratio 90
Older dependency ratio
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
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Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1980 to 2050 100 Youth dependency ratio 90
Older dependency ratio
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses and 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
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Healthy Aging
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Life Expectancy (LE) and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at Age 65 by Sex for Selected European Countries: 2012 (In years)
HALE
LE with activity limitations
HALE
LE with activity limitations
France Finland Portugal Austria Germany Sweden
Female
Male
Slovenia Norway Netherlands Greece United Kingdom Estonia Denmark Poland Croatia Slovakia Romania -30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Source: European Commission, 2014 Eurostat.
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Living Arrangement of Population Aged 65 and Over With a Disability in the United States: 2008-2012 (In percent)
Household living alone Total
29.9
65 to 74
20.2
4.8
62.0
37.7
Female
9.2
70.8
30.0
85 and over
Group quarters
60.9
24.4
75 to 84
Male
Household living with others
45.0 73.0
36.6
8.0 17.4 6.8
52.6
10.8
White
30.5
60.2
9.3
Black
31.4
58.4
10.3
Asian Hispanic Not Hispanic
14.8
80.0
21.1
5.2
73.5 30.6
59.9
5.4 9.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates, 2008-2012.
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Summary and Discussion •
The world population is aging rapidly and the pace of aging will continue to accelerate in the next few decades.
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A distinct feature of global population aging is its uneven speed across regions and countries.
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Asia leads world regions in speed of aging and size of older population.
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Summary and Discussion (cont.) •
The U.S. older population will almost double by 2050 although its aging pace is expected to be slower than some countries.
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The rapid reduction of fertility rates and extended life expectancy shifted the societal support ratio towards the older population.
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Older Americans with a disability vary in living arrangements and geographic distribution. 33
Aging is Reshaping Our World
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www.census.gov www.census.gov/population/international /data/idb/informationGateway.php
wan.he@census.gov This study is supported under an interagency agreement with the Division of Behavioral and Social Research, National Institute on Aging, U.S. National Institutes of Health.
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