Session Description • Impact of shifting senior living models in response to economic conditions, market behaviors, older adults’ desires and other factors • Quantifying and understanding the scope of a community’s potential market and competition
HISTORICAL • Independent Living: Largely CCRCs, Active Adult or IL/AL rental communities • Assisted Living: Part Of A Campus Or Stand-Alone • Congregate Care: Assisted Living-Like Units, Assisted Living Light Services (generally three meals daily) • Memory Care Assisted Living • Nursing Homes
ALL MUST BE ACCOUNTED FOR
EMERGING Stay at Home Trend
EMERGING Stay at Home Trend • Older Adults Staying at Home Longer While the Younger Work Force is Declining – Increasing home care utilization » See Seniors Helping Seniors
EMERGING Stay at Home Trend – Technology to enable/support living at home » See Robear
RGING New pendent Models
EMERGING New Independent Living Models • Age Restricted, Full Apartments With Minimal Support or Services • Provides social engagement • Adds informal support • Reduces maintenance » See Affinity Living Communities
EMERGING New Independent Living Models • Age Restricted, Service Assistance Coordination, Importing External Services • Consumer demand at all price points » See Senior Housing Assistance Group
RGING Assisted Models
EMERGING New Assisted Living Models • Much higher level of care being provided • More memory care being added • Crossing over into previous SNF care
CHANGING IMPACT OF EXISTING PRODUCT OPTIONS BOARD AND CARE HOMES • Generally small homes serving 6 or fewer people • Increasingly developing memory care programs: – Competitive services and pricing – Families like price points and smaller setting where elders are closer to staff
• Frequently identified by providers as growing competition
Significant additional data collection to determine the program and price points: Adds time and costs to studies
SORTING THE MARKETS Historical • Independent Living: – Units That Include a Full Kitchen, Individual and Lockable Entrance – Full Kitchen: Includes Sink, Cooktop and Oven – Distinguishable From A Kitchenette By The Presence Of An Oven – Those Living In This Type Of Unit Are Counted As Households – Services Were Generally Minimal: People Moved When They Needed More “Care”
Shifting Delivery
SHIFTING DELIVERY LINES BETWEEN RESIDENTS IN IL ARE BLURRING • Independent Living – Communities of All Types Are Providing More Home Care & Services to Non-Residents • Response To Market Demand
– Stand Alone IL: Increased Assistance With Service Coordination To Access Outside Home Care SHIFT FROM COUNTING UNITS TO QUANTIFYING Shift from counting units THOSE UTILIZING SERVICES
to quantifying service utilization.
SHIFTING DELIVERY ASSISTED LIVING – LEVELS OF CARE • Base level often labeled “independent” CONGREGATE CARE • Not licensed Assisted Living, but it does include some services (meals, housekeeping) So What Level of Need/Care Do These Represent? How is the market quantified? Utilization of ADL’s and IADLs Decisions about HOW MANY to apply.
IMPACT OF CONGREGATE • • • •
Usually three meals daily, housekeeping Units do not have kitchens, often kitchenettes Often advertised as independent living Are they “Assisted Living Light?” – Results in lowering the number of ADLs applied to data to estimate penetration rates
Varying Degrees Of Need For Assisted Living and Change Over Time
Why the Uncertainty?
WHY DO STUDIES WITH THE UNCERTAINTY? • More Important Than Ever To Understand The Markets – Increased Competition – Growing Options In The Market Place – Increased Availability Closer To Home: Shifting Market Areas? – How Does Your Product Compare?
KEY ELEMENTS TO ACHIEVING A VALUABLE OUTCOME • • • •
Careful Delineation Of Market Area Understand The Methodology: No Black Box Understand The Data Being Applied Critical Eye
Do you need help identifying your market?
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