Is the Sector Still Recession Proof?
Is the Sector Still Recession Proof?
Moderator: Chuck Harry Chief of Research and Analytics National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC)
Chris Bird Life Care Services, LLC
Kathryn Burton Gray Hunt Real Estate Capital
Gaurie Rodman Aptura, a Direct Supply Company
Joe Weisenburger Welltower, Inc.
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Is the Sector Still Recession Proof?
Chris Bird Life Care Services, LLC
Kathryn Burton Gray Hunt Real Estate Capital
Gaurie Rodman Aptura, a Direct Supply Company
Joe Weisenburger Welltower, Inc.
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Seniors Housing Supply & Demand Market Cycle Since 2006 Seniors Housing Fundamentals Primary Markets | 1Q06-1Q19
Inventory Growth
Absorption
All Occupancy
Stabilized Occupancy
9,000
94%
8,000
92%
7,000
90%
6,000
88%
5,000
86%
4,000
84%
3,000
82%
2,000
80%
1,000
78%
0
76%
-1,000
74%
-2,000
72% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: NIC MAP® Data Service
Seniors Housing’s Investment Returns Among the Highest
Seniors Housing & Care Annual Property Sales Closed Transactions Seniors Housing & Care Volume by Buyer Type1 U.S. | 1Q08 – 1Q19
1. Preliminary Data Source: NIC MAP® Data Service, Real Capital Analytics
Independent Living & Assisted Living: Supply & Demand
Independent Living & Assisted Living: Resulting Occupancy Occupancy Primary Markets | 1Q06 – 1Q19 IL
AL
Srs Hsg
93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: NIC MAP® Data Service
Wide Occupancy Rate Spread Across the Primary Markets Seniors Housing Occupancy by Metro Market Primary Markets | As of 1Q19
Occupancy Range (4Q05 - 1Q19) Current Quarter Occupancy Year Ago Occupancy
100%
95%
90%
85%
HOU
SA
CLE
LV
ATL
DAL
KC
PHO
CHI
DET
ORL
RIV
MIA
DEN
TAM
STL
CIN
DC
LA
PIT
SEA
MIN
PHI
BOS
MAP31
Source: NIC MAP® Data Service
SAC
NY
SF
SD
POR
BAL
75%
SJ
80%
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Panel Questions 1. How do you engage with seniors housing operators?
2. What factors support seniors housing’s resiliency during economic recessions? 3. What was the impact on seniors housing during the previous recessions? 4. What’s different or comparable regarding the sector as we enter 2020? 5. What do you expect to be the magnitude or depth of a 2020 economic recession? 6. How resilient do you expect seniors housing to be during a 2020 economic recession?
7. What preparations should operators execute to minimize threats and maximize opportunities? 8. Is seniors housing still resilient to economic downturns? More or less so than previously?
Is the Sector Still Recession Proof?
Q&A
Questions & Answers
Is the Sector Still Recession Proof?
Moderator: Chuck Harry Chief of Research and Analytics National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC)
Chris Bird Life Care Services, LLC
Kathryn Burton Gray Hunt Real Estate Capital
Gaurie Rodman Aptura, a Direct Supply Company
Joe Weisenburger Welltower, Inc.