The Demographic Dip ALFA Annual Conference May 9, 2013 Phil Downey Senior Housing Analytics 571-423-8944 pdowney@senioranalytics.com
75+, 80+ and 85+ population, 1990-‐2050 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 75+
25,000
80+ 85+
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-‐2080. (NP2012-‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-‐2010 (US-‐EST00INT-‐01), Sept 2011.
-‐
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annual growth rates in the 75+ and 80+ U.S. population (from U.S. Census)
Compound annual growth rate over 5 yrs.
75+
80+
5.0% 4.5% 4.0%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-‐2080. (NP2012-‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-‐2010 (US-‐EST00INT-‐01), Sept 2011.
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2045-‐50
2040-‐45
2035-‐40
2030-‐35
2025-‐30
2020-‐25
2015-‐20
2010-‐15
2005-‐10
2000-‐05
1995-‐00
1990-‐95
0.0%
Compound annual growth rates in the 75+ population (data source: U.S. Census) 1990-‐‑9 5
1995-‐‑0 0
2000-‐‑0 5
2005-‐‑1 0
2010-‐‑1 5
2015-‐‑2 0
2020-‐‑2 5
2025-‐‑3 0
2030-‐‑3 5
2035-‐‑4 0
2040-‐‑4 5
2045-‐‑5 0
75+
2.6%
2.3%
1.4%
0.9%
1.7%
2.8%
4.2%
3.8%
3.2%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
80+
3.2%
2.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.4%
1.7%
3.3%
4.7%
3.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.4%
85+ 3.8% 3.1% 2.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.2% 90+ 5.1% 2.8% 1.9% 3.5% 5.2% 2.5% 75+ Compound annual growth rates, 5 year cohorts
2.0% 1.3%
3.9% 2.6%
5.3% 4.6%
4.0% 5.9%
3.2% 4.2%
1.7% 3.3%
75-‐‑79 80-‐‑84 85-‐‑90 90+
1.8% 2.8% 3.2% 5.1%
2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 2.8%
0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9%
-‐‑0.4% 0.5% 3.3% 3.5%
2.1% 0.1% 1.2% 5.2%
4.3% 2.2% 0.3% 2.5%
5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.3%
2.6% 5.5% 4.8% 2.6%
2.2% 2.7% 5.7% 4.6%
0.3% 2.3% 2.9% 5.9%
-‐‑1.3% 0.4% 2.5% 4.2%
-‐‑0.4% -‐‑1.2% 0.5% 3.3%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Projec2ons of the Popula2on by Age and Sex: 2015-‐2080. (NP2012-‐T12), Dec. 2012; Intercensal Es2mates of the Popula2on by Sex and Age 2000-‐2010 (US-‐EST00INT-‐01), Sept 2011.
75+ U.S population growth, 5 year cohorts
18,000
16,000
75-‐79 14,000
80-‐84
12,000
85-‐89
10,000
decline 2005-‐‑10
8,000
90+
80-‐‑84 85-‐‑90 90+
6,000
4,000
2,000
-‐‑
75-‐‑79
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
75-‐‑79 6,104
6,669
7,416
7,464
7,313
8,102
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
10,010 12,955 14,722 16,431 16,640 15,569 15,243
14.0% 12.0%
75+ population CAGR (5 yr. intervals), Top 100 MSA's 1990-‐2010
14.0% 12.0%
80+ population CAGR (5 yr. intervals), Top 100 MSA's 1990-‐2010
Scranton, PA New Orleans, LA
10.0%
Pittsburgh, PA
10.0%
Providence, RI
8.0%
8.0%
Tampa, FL Worcester, MA
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-‐2.0%
1990-‐1995 Max 10.7% Min 1.3% Median 2.8%
1995-‐2000 7.2% 1.2% 2.6%
2000-‐2005 4.8% -‐0.7% 1.5%
2005-‐2010 3.9% -‐0.8% 1.4%
-‐2.0%
1990-‐1995 Max 12.7% Min 1.5% Median 3.6%
1995-‐2000 6.9% 1.2% 2.7%
2000-‐2005 6.7% 0.5% 2.7%
2005-‐2010 4.5% 0.4% 2.1%
Data source: Geoly2cs Inc.
NIC 100 seniors housing supply penetration of 75+ and 80+ population, 1990-‐2010 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 75+ penetration 80+ penetration
Source: Senior Housing Analy2cs, A Projec2on of Market Rate U.S Seniors Housing Demand 2010-‐2030,, American Seniors Housing Assn., Winter 2013
1990 4.66% 8.81%
1995 4.73% 8.66%
2000 5.93% 10.81%
2005 6.49% 11.08%
2010 6.73% 11.02%
Projection of annual U. S. demand growth (based on 2010 supply Annual demand penetration for 75+ and 80+ population at 90% occupancy) growth (units/year) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Source: Senior Housing Analy2cs, A Projec2on of Market Rate U.S Seniors Housing Demand 2010-‐2030,, American Seniors Housing Assn., Winter 2013
10,000 0 75+ penetration 80+ penetration Midrange
2010-‐15 19,839 16,620 18,230
2015-‐20 36,777 21,714 29,245
2020-‐25 64,721 46,628 55,675
2025-‐30 71,451 81,737 76,594
Absorption, NIC 100: Maj. IL and Maj. AL communities Adj factor for Pe riod Total absorption nursing be ds: .97
4Q08-‐‑3Q09 5,299
5,134
4Q09-‐‑3Q10 11,260
10,911
4Q10-‐‑3Q11 13,809
13,381
4Q11-‐‑3Q12 14,115
13,677
Average 11,121
10,776
Est avg since 2010 13,580
13,159
Source: NIC MAP
Units open per year, 1990-‐2010
50,000
Total
ILU
AL+MCU
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: NIC
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0