Forecast
February 2023
1 Licence obligation to publish a Forecast Network Capacity Statement
As per licence condition 2.19.2 of the SGN Natural Gas conveyance licence, SGN Natural Gas book and hold exit capacity on the Postalised Transmission Network for all Suppliers who operate within our Licenced Area.
The licence requires SGN Natural Gas to hold capacity to meet the daily firm demand from network consumers on a 1 in 20 peak day.
To facilitate the determination of the required capacity, the licence requires SGN Natural Gas to produce and publish an annual draft statement of its best estimate of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for the following Gas Year and to consult interested parties. A draft network capacity statement was issued in January 2023 inviting interested parties to make representations on the content.
As per the NI Network Gas Transmission Code, SGN Natural Gas may revise the amount of capacity booked and held on the Postalised Transmission Network during the Gas Year.
2 Determining the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2023/2024
SGN Natural Gas was awarded the distribution conveyance licence on 11th February 2015 for the Gas to the West project to develop low pressure gas infrastructure to convey gas to the towns specified within the licence.
The first phase of the project, which is the development of the gas network in Strabane, is ongoing with gas flowing to the first customer in January 2017. The network in Strabane was further expanded since 2017 and additional phases of the overall Gas to the West network were commissioned in July and December 2019. This development to Coalisland, Cookstown, Derrylin, Dungannon, Enniskillen, Magherafelt and Omagh and the continued gas network expansion will require an increase in capacity to facilitate the connection of additional customers the gas year 2023/24.
The forecast 1 in 20 peak day demand for Gas to the West network for Gas Year 2023/24 is based on our current network development plan – i.e. the forecast number and category of gas connections and the corresponding estimate of gas use by those consumers. While historical weather data has been considered as part of the forecasting process, the impact of this is limited. This is due to the relatively low level of heat dependant load connected to the network currently and the additional load expected to be connected during Gas Year 2023/24.
SGN Natural Gas did not receive any objections to the draft network capacity statement and will therefore book daily firm exit capacity of 3,957 MWh (135,029 therms) for Gas Year 2023/24.
While the Transmission System Operators’ Transportation Code now permit exit capacity bookings for a period up to 15 years it is our intention to only book exit capacity for 1 year at this stage, until greater clarity is available regarding development of the Gas to the West network and consumer connections as part of ongoing stakeholder engagement.
3 Conclusion and Recommendation
The methodology used to produce this draft statement of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2023/24 is considered fit for purpose.
Therefore, SGN Natural Gas will submit a booking application for 3,957 MWh of firm daily exit capacity for Gas Year 2023/24.