(equities) May 24, 2010 6:00am IST
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Punter’s Call
Weekly close below 200DMA Markets on May 21, 2010: 4851 crucial
Nifty chart: 4,931 - NSE50 [NIFTY] (4,946.70, 4,946.70, 4,842.30, 4,893.75, -60.8999)
5450
0.0%
Nifty has ended the week in red with a close below its 200 daily moving average (DMA), which is a positive sign for the bears. The momentum indicators are still all in favour of bears. On the lower side, 4851 becomes a crucial support, whereas 4944 is a crucial resistance on the upside. So, this range will decide the further direction of the market. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart have expanded, leading to an increase in the volatility, but the weekly bands are yet to expand as sharply as the daily bands. And when they do, there will be accelerated selling across the sectors, which will increase the volatility even further. Now, there is a possibility that there is a leading diagonal formation in wave A of wave Z down. So, if that is the case, Nifty may retrace few points in wave B. The break of 4851 will rule out this alternative and if 4844 is taken off, the pullback will extend. So, things continue to remain tricky, but looking at the volumes, breadth and momentum, the bears currently have an upper hand. So, we continue to maintain our bias down.
5400 5350 5300 5250
23.6%
5200 5150 38.2% 5100 5050
50.0%
5000 61.8%
4950 4900 4850
78.6%
4800 4750 4700 100.0% 4650 KST (-3.77880)
14
21
29
4 2010
11
18
25
1 8 February
15
22
2 8 March
15
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 22
29
5 April
12
19
26
3 May
10
17
24
31 7 June
60 minute chart - NSE50 [NIFTY] (4,880.20, 4,900.05, 4,872.35, 4,893.75, +13.3501) 5400 5350 5300 5250 5200
Nifty on the hourly chart is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) at 4943 and 40HMA at 4992, which are now its resistances in the short run. The hourly momentum indicator KST has turned into buy mode and is now trading below the zero reference line. Nifty on the daily chart is trading below its 20DMA at 5134 and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) at 5142, which are now its resistances in the short run. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative crossover and trading below the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 333 advances and 1,011 declines on NSE and 772 advances and 2,025 declines on BSE. Nifty and Sensex shed 17 and 74 points respectively. Of the Sensex components National Thermal Power Corporation (down 4.20%) and Grasim Industries (down 2.92%) were at the bottom of the 30-bourse list whereas ITC (up 3.41%) and Maruti Suzuki India (up 2.62%) topped the list. For Private Circulation only
5150 5100 5050
5000
4950
4900
4850
4800 KST (-1.51702)
31 1 5 April
6
7
8
9
12
13 15
16 19
20 21
22 23
26 27
28 29
30 3 4 May
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 5
6
7
10
11
12 13
14
17
18 19
20
21
22
Market Breadth Advances Declines Unchanged Volume (Rs)
BSE
NSE
772
333
2,025
1,011
85
31
4,322cr
14,692cr
Sharekhan Ltd A-206, Phoenix House, 2nd Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400013, India.
Short Term Trend Target Sensex
16180
Nifty
4840
Trend
u u
Reversal
Support/Resistance
Up above 17001
16180 / 17001
Up above 5106
4840 / 5106
Medium Term Medium Term Trend Trend
Target Sensex
16180
Nifty
4840
u
Trend
u u
u
Up
Reversal
Support/Resistance
Up above 17647
16180 / 17647
Up above 5295
4840 / 5295
Icon guide Down
Upswing matures
Downswing matures
Trendy Levels Trendy Levels Sensex
Nifty
Support
Resistance
16300 18800 19300 16600 16150 16725 18693 19700 16000 16850 18182 20062 20DSMA 40DEMA 20DSMA 40DEMA 17113 17157 20390 19941 BSE Sensex: 16,446 BSE Sensex: 19013
Support
Resistance
4900 5700 4840 5616 4800 5514 20DSMA 20DSMA 5133 6096
4960 5847 5000 5993 5050 6078 40DEMA 40DEMA 5141 5958
Nifty: 4,931 Nifty: 5705
CTFT Calls Carry today for tomorrow
Stock
Action
Stop loss
Price
Closing price
Target
Adani Enterprises
Sell
600.0
589.0
587.1
577 / 565
Rel Infra
Buy
971.0
989.0
988.4
1010 / 1020
UCO Bank
Buy
70.6
71.3
71.0
72.1 / 72.7
India Infoline
Buy
98.0
99.1
98.9
100 / 101
For Private Circulation only
Eagle Eye
2
May 21, 2010
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Smart Charts Date
Recommendation
19-05-10 19-05-10 19-05-10 19-05-10 18-05-10 17-05-10 12-05-10 11-05-10 07-05-10
CESC LIC Hsg Polaris JP Associate Hero Honda IVRCL Infra Hindalco Kotak Bank Essar oil
Action
Stop Loss/ Reversal (Intra-day)
Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell
Stop Loss/ Reversal DCL
Buy/Sell Price
Closing Price (CMP)
Potential % P/L at CMP
Targets
380.0 968.0 178.5 135.0 1,921.0 Book Profit Book Profit 787.7 144.1
387.0 939.0 170.0 123.6 1,830.0 165.7 168.0 748.5 130.0
368.4 944.8 172.0 117.7 1,858.2 151.0 151.0 743.3 122.9
5.0% -0.6% -1.2% 5.0% -1.5% 9.7% 11.3% 0.7% 5.8%
364-341 885-825 160-149 103-78 1720-1610 153-123.6 158-148 704-659 104-95
NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Smart Charts Calls are on closing basis unless specified. TPB: Trailing profit booked
Momentum Calls For the short term—1 to 5 days
Stock
Action
Action Date
Stop loss
Price
Closing price
P/L at CMP
Potential %
Target1
Target2
Reliance Capital
Buy
21-05-10
627.40
638.7
641.3
0.4%
650.0
663.0
Century Textiles
Buy
21-05-10
431.90
439.6
442.5
0.7%
447.0
455.0
Reliance Industries
Sell
21-05-10
1,002.00
981.0
995.7
-1.5%
960.0
940.0
Grasim
Sell
21-05-10
Book Profit
2,470.0
2,419.0
2.1%
2,420.0
2,380.0
JSWL
Sell
20-05-10
Book Profit
1,060.8
1,035.0
2.5%
1,040.0
1,020.0
United Phosphorus
Sell
20-05-10
Book Profit
164.5
162.0
1.5%
161.2
158.0
Tata Chem
Sell
20-05-10
Book Profit
327.5
319.0
2.7%
321.0
314.5
NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Momentum Calls are on an intra-day basis. TPB: Trailing profit bookeds NOTE : Action taken after market hours will be highlited in blue colour.
For Private Circulation only
Eagle Eye
3
May 21, 2010
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Day Trader’s HIT List For May 24, 2010 Scrip Name
Support Levels S1 S2
Close (Rs)
Resistance Levels R2 R1
Action
NIFTY Futures
4840
4900
4931
4960
5020
Go long above R2
Axis Bank
1175
1200
1218
1235
1260
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
TCS
693
708
719
730
745
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
DLF
260
265
269
273
279
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
L&T
1550
1585
1608
1630
1665
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
ICICI Bank
805
824
835
847
863
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Infosys
2520
2560
2586
2615
2650
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
J P Associates
113
116
118
120
123
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Maruti
1200
1225
1242
1260
1285
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Reliance
965
984
996
1010
1030
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Reliance Capital
620
632
641
650
664
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Reliance Comm
128
131
133
135
138
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
SAIL
196
200
203
206
210
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
SBI
2215
2250
2272
2300
2340
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Tata Motors
685
700
710
720
735
Go short below S2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Tata Steel
492
502
509
515
527
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Rel Infra
955
975
988
1002
1025
Go long above R2
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
*Note: Closing price of Nifty futures is last traded price of Nifty futures on NSE
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Eagle Eye
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May 21, 2010
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