How an averted gas crisis could help Europe avoid a recession

However, falling gas prices might make BP more addicted to oil and delay its renewables transformation

The latest projection from the European Commission is the Eurozone will avoid a recession in 2023, partially because the gas crisis has eased.

The benchmark for European gas is the Dutch TTF. Last month it traded at €55, below its levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Europe’s ability to wean itself off Russian gas is a real success story, albeit aided by mild temperatures, and has longer-term implications. Analysis by Dutch bank ING suggests the region could exit the 2022/23 winter with storage facilities more than 50% full.

As it observes this would make hitting EU inventory targets of 90% by 1 November 2023 easier. ING’s head of commodities strategy, Warren Patterson, says: ‘Between 1 April and the end of October last year, the EU added in the region of 67 bcm (billion cubic metres) to storage.

‘If we were to see similar storage levels at the start of the next heating season, the EU would only need to add around 43 bcm of gas this year.’

The Ukrainian conflict has shifted the focus to some extent from energy transition to energy security, though the two interlink as expansion of renewables would allow some countries to generate more of their own energy.

This has provided cover for some mission creep on the net zero strategies of businesses like BP (BP.). The company surprised many observers last week by paring back its original commitment to cut oil and gas output by as much as 40% by 2030. This was a key plank in the energy transition strategy outlined by chief executive Bernard Looney three years ago. Now the plan is for it to be 25% lower.

The temptation to water down this pledge is obvious when the company has just posted the highest profit in its history ($27.7 billion for 2022) – heavily underpinned by oil and gas production. Rivals which have made no commitment to cut their hydrocarbons output have also been posting record earnings. For example, ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE) achieved the highest annual profit for a western oil firm at $55.7 billion.

While investors will welcome the strong shareholder returns which accompany these bumper profits, BP needs to be wary of being diverted from its net zero mission, both because of potential regulatory and political risks if it does so and for more commercial reasons too. As the recent drop in gas prices shows, commodities are volatile so diversification is important.

At least BP is increasing spend on its transition business – areas like biofuels, charging, renewables and hydrogen – by $8 billion over the next eight years. [TS]