Emerging markets: a cold winter for China and growth back in favour

What has caught the eye of Franklin Templeton experts this month

1. proceeding swiftly, despite the spike in Covid-19 cases in early January. Investor attention has recently switched to the reopening’s impact on energy prices. In contrast to Europe, China is experiencing a bitterly cold winter, with average temperatures 15oF below average for the month of January. This is increasing demand for natural gas, the majority of which China imports from overseas. Liquid natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia and Europe have not yet reacted to the frigid weather in China, as Europe is experiencing temperatures on average 15oF above average over the same period. However, if this were to change, LNG prices could rise, reigniting global inflation concerns and limiting China’s room for fiscal maneuvering given gas subsidies provided to households.

2. Markets pivot toward growth. January witnessed a dramatic shift in the performance of growth stocks, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index posting double-digit returns. Value stocks witnessed positive performance but lagged behind. This is a reversal of the 2022 performance trend, wherein value stocks performed better than growth stocks as rising interest rates undermined the outlook for the latter. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a continuation of this January’s trend will likely be dependent on the direction of interest rates and the US dollar, among other factors.

3. Emerging markets (EM) earnings outlook. Consensus expectations are for a recovery in emerging market earnings in 2023, following a sharp decline last year. China’s reopening and economic recovery is expected to drive earnings, particularly in the financials and consumer discretionary sectors. High interest rates typically benefit banks, and a recovery in consumer technology business prospects looks likely to us, including e-commerce.