Urban Agriculture Futures a multistakeholder ‘think-and-do’ lab Philippe Vandenbroeck, shiftN October 2009
can we imagine a future in which ‌
... we will need to get our hands dirty to enjoy our daily meal ?
... cities will be regenerative systems, putting back what they have taken?
... our postindustrial societies might learn a survival trick or two from the world’s urban poor ?
... access to and ownership of urban space will be contested and a cause for social strife?
URBAN AGRICULTURE FUTURES an invitation to join a Collaborative think-do tank to collaboratively make sense of these questions and act on that understanding
URBAN AGRICULTURE FUTURES
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Project Predicament Practice Prospects Promise
PROJECT
> a challenge Feeding a hungry world gets harder, even with all the tools ... International Herald Tribune, frontpage 23 October 2009
> a challenge
Frontpage International Herald Tribune 23 October 2009
Urban agriculture has been a much undervalued source of food, income, environmental and social benefits for the world’s rapidly growing urban population. It is time to think deeply about what urban agriculture might mean for us in the longer term future.
Photo: Benetton
Image: iStockphoto
> a project
> some figures 800 million 66%
estimated number of people engaged in agriculture in or near cities fraction of (sub)urban households in the developing world engaged in some sort of farming
2.7 million 600,000 80,000 14,000
farmers in Shangai
people in Beijing who work directly in agriculture
number of allotment gardens in use in Berlin
people on a waiting list for an allotment garden in Berlin
> focal question
What will urban agriculture look like in 2040? How will it function? What will it contribute? Where will we see it? Who will be involved?
> approach
a collaborative futures project with a global scope and a 30 years’ time horizon !
building the partnership
building the evidence base
a series of 3 learning labs
and an action lab
the project: elapsed time 24 months
dissemination
> participants
• Public authorities • Civil society organisations
• Local, regional, national and transnational authorities • Grassroots organisations • Social innovators
• Businesses
• Developers • Environmental technology companies
• Planners and architects • Experts
• Urban infrastructure providers (utilities, waste, transport, housing) • Farmers organisations • Agrifood companies • Retail companies
> deliverables
New networks New insights
A new platform for joint action
PREDICAMENT
> key drivers
Population
Energy
Economic Growth
Food
Urbanisation
Water
What does this mean for our life support systems?
Climate Change
> the Perfect Storm
Energy Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Food Water
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FOA)
Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI)
> an erosion of systemic resilience Decreasing Accessibility of stocks
Increasing Variability of supply
Energy
Population
Economic growth
Food
Urbanisation
Water
Increasing trade flows of commodities
Rising Prices of commodities
Climate Change
FRAGILITY is the name of the game for the next few decades
> Vulnerability in action – the “food crisis”
•
Population growth
•
Rising middle classes and dietary change
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Oil price increase
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Financial speculation
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Declining food stockpiles
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Declining agricultural productivity
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Soil and water depletion
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Import dependence
•
Trade regimes
•
Competition from other biomass uses
•
Crop shortfalls due to natural disasters
> the food crisis is here to stay
FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, July 2009
Domestic food prices in developing countries remain high. 30 countries around the world are in crisis and require assistance as a result of natural disasters, conflict or insecurity, and economic problems. http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenmanning
FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, July 2009
> urbanisation • The world is now half urban (3.3 billion people, 2008) • Globally, urbanisation levels will rise to 70% by 2050 (6.4 billion people). • Every second 2 new city dwellers are added to the world’s urban population. • In absolute numbers the growth of cities in the developing world is ten times that of cities in the North. UN-Habitat, State of World’s Cities, 2008
> urbanization: megacities Asia is a breeding ground for megacities
> (de)urbanisation • The urban population in the developed world is expected to remain stable through 2030. • 40% of cities in the developed world experienced population loss through the 1990s. UN-Habitat, State of World’s Cities, 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/davelau
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22746515@N02/3281728778
> footprint of cities
CITIES HAVE BECOME ENTROPIC BLACK HOLES drawing in matter and energy from all over the biosphere Rees and Wackernagel, [1996] 2008
> the complexity of the global food system
> trends in global food systems
Increasing energy density of diets
Global dominance of supermarkets
Expanding trade
> making cities more sustainable: 5 principles
1 Reduction of energy input 2 Avoiding or cyclization of flows 3 Protection of all abiotic stocks (air, water, soil) 4 Preservation of nature and urban spaces 5 Providing small-scale structure and rich differentiation R. Wittig et al., [1994] 2008
Urban agriculture contributes to all
PRACTICE
Photo. T. Krupnik
> urban agriculture: a definition Urban agriculture is an industry located within (intraurban) or on the fringe (periurban) of a town, a city or a metropolis, which grows and raises, processes and distributes a diversity of food and nonfood products,
(re)using largely human and material resources, products and services found in and around that urban area. (Mougeot, 2000)
> urban agriculture in the developing world • Urban agriculture has always been vibrant in developing countries. • The practice of urban agriculture is: • Informal: part of the informal economy, very little in terms of supporting policy frameworks • Heterogeneous: significant demographic variety of practitioners; different ways of organising; different production patterns
Photo: China Daily
• Opportunistic: farming is a often secondary livelihood, opportunistic use of public land; unconventional farm types (partly mobile, partly without soil)
> urban agriculture in the developing world
East & South-East Asia > 7 million people
North Africa & Middle East > 6 million people
* Intensive production of perishable high-value commodities
* fruit, vegetables and poultry Latin America & Caribbean >x% of urban population * Horticulture, dairy, poultry
South Asia > 11 million people Sub-Saharan Africa > 10% of urban population
* livestock-based farming system
Map: NASA
* Heterogeneous & dynamic * Fruit, vegetables, dairy, cattle, goats, poultry
FOA estimates, 2001 as reported by van Veenhuizen & Danso, 2007
> Key benefits of urban agriculture in the developing world • Food security: it is estimated that 200 million residents produce food for the urban market providing 15-20% if the world’s food. • Income generation: urban poor spend a sizeable fraction of their income (50-70%) on food. UA is an important source of surplus income. • Social integration of disadvantaged groups (female-headed households, elderly, jobless, HIV/AIDS affected). • Environmental benefits • improving waste management by turning into productive resources • improving urban microclimate by providing shade, dust reduction, wind breaks
> Risks associated to urban agriculture in the developing world Photo: Mujahid Safodien/Associated Press
Key risks: Health and environmental risks due to polluted water and soils unhygienic processing zoonosis pesticides
> urban agriculture in the developed world: something’s afoot The “Anastasia” hype > “Over 10 million copies sold with no advertisement” “Thousands quit their jobs” “Recession? These books show us another way!”
Michele Obama in the White House vegetable garden
The Transition Town movement
> urban agriculture: window sill gardens
We can start ... ... small
ERA Architects
Š K. Leidorf
> urban agriculture: allotments and home gardens
Gardening is enjoying an increasing popularity. Sales of vegetable seeds have increased with 30% in Europe and US in 2008-2009. Key drivers: better taste, lower cost, more community, lower environmental impact.
ETHICS ! PRINCIPLES !
Permaculture is an approach to designing communities and agricultural systems that mimics the relationships found in natural ecologies. There is a rapidly expanding international permaculture community. Transition Towns are modelled along the lines of permaculture principles.
Photo: J. Thakara
ERA Architects
Š K. Leidorf
> urban agriculture: the permaculture wave
Sky Vegetables
> urban agriculture: green roofs
Green roof surface areas have been expanding across the US and Europe. The City of Toronto passed a new green roof by-law consisting of a green roof construction standard and a mandatory requirement for green roofs on all classes of new buildings. The city of Chicago installed a green roof on its city hall in 2001. The Ford Motor Company has installed a 10.4-acre green roof atop its assembly plant in Dearborn, Michigan.
> urban agriculture: total building concepts 1
2
1. “Pig City” MVRDV
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2. “Dragonfly” Vincent Callebaut 3. “Agro Housing” Knafo Klimor Architects 4. “La Tour Vivante” SOA Architects 5. “Center for Urban Agriculture” Mithun 6. “Tower of Tomorrow” William McDonough + Partners
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5
6
> urban agriculture: total building concepts
• Production of high value crops (greenhouse) meshed with residential and business functions or dedicated vertical livestock buildings • State-of-the-art environmental technology: recycling of wastewater, renewable energy, recyclable building materials • Production technology: hydroponics, aeroponics (soilless culture)
Kiss + Cathcart Architects
Design principles
• Civic Ecology: integrating energy, water, material and information flows at the scale of buildings or neighbourhoods • Cradle-to-cradle: beyond efficiency to coupling environmental benefits with material production and consumption
© Tim Smith, SERA
> closed cycle design
Many of the ‘Grand Paris’ proposals include urban agriculture as an integral element of the design
© Bureau Castro
© Antoine Grumbach & Associés
> metropolitan/regional concepts
> key drivers: urban agriculture in developed countries Environmental benefits • reduce cooling and heating needs
Local food production (fruit, vegetables)
• facilitate stormwater management
• provide access to fresh, quality food for all socioeconomic groups
• increase biodiversity
• reduce food miles
• filter pollutants and carbon dioxide out of the air
• provide new or more reliable sources of income for growers
• recycling of nutrients
Community building • building life skills • creating a sense of place • beautifying urban environments
> Urban agriculture: current typology
Subsistence
Commercial UPA
UPA
Multifunctional UPA
> urban agriculture: a typology
Subsistence
Commercial UPA
Food and non-food products Market-oriented production by familybased or entrepreneurial entreprises Income and employment generation
UPA
Multifunctional UPA
Organic and diverse agriculture in buffer zones and neighbourhoods Direct marketing of fresh products Combination with other functions (ecosystem services; urban greening)
Self-production of food and herbs Some processing and local selling/exchange Part of livelihood strategies of urban poor
> dimensions of a more differentiated typology [plapoebia] Purpose
what does the agricultural production contribute to?
Location
where is agricultural production taking place?
Actors
who is involved in the agricultural production?
Production
what (portfolio of) biomass-based products & services is produced?
Ownership
who owns production factors (capital, land)?
Environment
what is the institutional, social, economic and geographic environment?
Beneficiaries
who benefits (or is a victim) from agricultural production?
Infrastructure
what technical and built infrastructure is used to produce?
Assumptions
what are basic underlying assumptions about the relationship between nature and city, urban and rural, man and the land?
PROSPECTS
EasyBloom: a sensor that communicates a plant’s eye view
> new technologies Mainstreaming urban agriculture?
Eco-pod: algae bio-reactor Howeler & Yoon Architects
vaporNET: turning fog into fresh water http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenmanning
Urban Battery: off-grid power station, vertical greenhouse and billboard
ď›™ MOS
> new business models Low cost designs and the proximity of growing cycle and retail point creates new opportunities for small scale, urban farming.
www.thefarmery.com
> new business models
“Indeed, the entire roof is planted
with various fruits, vegetables, and other edibles for restaurant Blue Velvet. You can’t get more local.” Green Roof in LA provides vegetables for restaurant below http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/04/green-roof-food-la.php www.treehugger.com Restaurant & Kwekerij “De Kas” Amsterdam
> new economic paradigms Social capital
Financial capital
The Monetary Economy Public Private Not-for-profit
Supply and Demand
The Social Economy
The Core Economy Households Communities
Obligation and Reciprocity
ď›™ hwang jin wook
> new faultlines Contesting spaces, policies and business models
Permablitz Eating the suburbs, One garden at a time
> new faultlines
Š Der Spiegel, 2008
> new discontinuities new valuation paradigms disruptive climate change
bioterrorist attack pandemics
Pakistan collapse demise of the dollar
technology breakthrough
oil price
beyond Copenhagen
PROMISE
> logic !
Groundwork Understanding Urban Agriculture TODAY What is Urban Agriculture?
Learning Lab I Learning from CASE STUDIES How do Urban Agriculture practices work ?
Learning Lab II Mapping FUTURE CONTEXTS How do key drivers of change interact to create different settings for urban agriculture ?
Learning Lab III Understanding Urban Agriculture POTENTIALS What might Urban Agriculture be in 2040 ?
Action Lab Maximising Urban Agriculture POTENTIALS What can we do today to help spread and initiate best practices and novel business propositions ?
> deliverables systemic insight + new capabilities + new partnerships enables purposeful change
> timeline 2009
• Develop project concept • Build consortium • Run project • Build evidence base • Learning Lab I • Learning Lab II • Learning Lab III • Action Lab • Dissemination
2010
2011
> project roles Systems Mapping 3D/Architectural Rendering Urbanism & Land Use Food Systems Social Innovation Systems Thinking Socio-technical Transitions
Sponsors Contact Points Up to 12 individuals representing funders’ interests
Researchers
Visualization Experts
Project Team Initiators
Creative Multistakeholder Group Up to 40 individuals representing different stakeholders from different settings (developing-developed)
Process Experts
Futures Learning Labs Systems Analysis Innovation
Scientific Reflection Group 3-4 Urban Agriculture top experts from different discipinary and cultural backgrounds
> project roles Systems Mapping 3D/Architectural Rendering Urbanism & Land Use Food Systems Social Innovation Systems Thinking Socio-technical Transitions
Sponsors Contact Points Up to 12 individuals representing funders’ interests
Researchers
Visualization Experts
Project Team Initiators
Creative Multistakeholder Group Up to 40 individuals representing different stakeholders from different settings (developing-developed)
Process Experts
Futures Learning Labs Systems Analysis Innovation
Scientific Reflection Group 3-4 Urban Agriculture top experts from different discipinary and cultural backgrounds
> The urban agriculture system
Š shiftN
> a linked-up approach is needed
public authorities activist groups producers farming organisations
waste mgt
developers agri-food transport
consumer organisations
architects planners
retailers utilities
utilities technology & infrastructure providers
Š shiftN
> initiators
Experts in Strategic future projects Multistakeholder dialogue Open Innovation processes Customised learning experiences
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> previous CSMSPs collaborative strategic multistakeholder processes Nutrition & Health 2020 Scenarios for a health-conscious society
2003-2004 Key sponsors
Co-initiated with iStockphoto
> previous CSMSPs collaborative strategic multistakeholder processes Nutrition & Health Open Innovation Lab 2005-2006 Key sponsors
Co-initiated with iStockphoto
> previous CSMSPs collaborative strategic multistakeholder processes 2025 Fields for Food or Fuel Scenarios for a new biomass regime
2007-2008 Key sponsors
Co-organised with iStockphoto
> endorsements Prof. André Faaij, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University “I was particularly impressed by the excellent understanding and use of the interactive scenario methodology that was deployed. I have been and am involved in many activities that target or include scenario analysis, but this process was particularly well done, really making the participants realize why it was done, what was done and allowing for building of insight and understanding. This was a unique experience for me and delivered useful lessons for the future.” Richard Perkins, World Wildlife Fund UK “Thanks for a fascinating meeting and for all the hard work that you and your colleagues put into making it work. One of the best facilitated processes that I have been involved in recent years, and I am quite fussy about these things.” Ron Steenblik, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Paris “It was a very rewarding experience, one from which I Iearned much – both in terms of the process by which participants’ views and knowledge were elicited, and the substance at the heart of the exercise. I appreciate very much the opportunity to have participated in it. I thought that you guys were great, by the way. And your graphs and charts, some of which were produced overnight, were incredible.”
> action
Thank you for your attention We hope to collaborate with you on this exciting project
Š Luc Schuyten