Working with wicked problems by shiftN

Working with Wicked Problems

Philippe Vandenbroeck, shiftN February 2011 www.shiftn.com

WICKED PROBLEMS A special class of problems ?

Picture: Calabi‐Ya Manifold Courtesy Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics

Our current predicament

Enter the Anthropocene

'Hockey sGck curves' abound

Planetary Predicament

Global Governance

7 Copyright: UNFCCC, 2010

ConnecGvity

Picture: The Intenet

But what does this mean? It's up to us to make sense of it ...

CriGcal uncertainGes

A trap is a trap only for creatures

Sir Geoﬀrey Vickers (1892‐1984)

which cannot solve the problem that it sets. Man‐traps are dangerous only in relaEon to the limitaEons on what men can see and value and do. The nature of the trap is a funcGon of the nature of the trapped.

Reconﬁguring the appreciaGve basis for our existence

What happens beyond the 'stable state' ... Mindlessness

RevoluGon

Picture: The Intenet

Engineering our way out

Picture: The Intenet

Nevertheless we have made progress

Cuban Missile Crisis, 1961

US urban riots, 1964 onwards

Kennedy AssassinaEon, 1963

Vietnam War, 1964‐1973

Moon landing, 1969

Student revolt, 1968

Earth Day, 1970

Meadows 1972

Kahn & Wiener 1968 Schon 1972

The late 1960s and early 1970s: a period of ferment

CriGcal uncertainGes Planning problems are inherently

wicked: ill‐deﬁned and reliant on poliEcal judgment. They are never solved. At best they are re‐solved, over and over again. Horst Ri]el and Marvin Webber, 1973

What decision‐makers deal with are messes, not problems. A mess is a set of external condiEons that produces dissaEsfacEon.

The policy process is 'a swampy lowland' where soluEons are confusing messes incapable of technical soluEons

Russ Ackoﬀ, 1974

Wicked problems

Wicked problems: •  Unclear causaliEes. •  Numerous intervenEon points. •  Data are scarce, dispersed and low quality. •  Uncertainty regarding costs and beneﬁts of intervenEons. •  MulEple stakeholders with diﬀerent, oeen incompaEble worldviews. •  FormulaEon is subject to conEnuous reframing and renegoEaEon. •  OpEmal soluEons to wicked problems do not exist. •  There may be path dependency associated to intervenEon strategies.

Super‐wicked problems: •  The scope is planetary and the potenEal downside is very large. •  Those most responsible have least interest to do something. •  The longer one waits to do something about it, the more wicked it gets.

Based on Cyneﬁn Model CogniGve Edge

CriGcal uncertainGes Methodological innovaGons in the 1960s and 70s The coming of age of modern systems thinking

System Dynamics Jay Forrester (1968)

Morphological Analysis Fritz Zwicky (1967, 1969)

Delphi Analysis RAND Corpora7on (1959, 1964) Scenario Planning Bertrand de Jouvenel, Herman Kahn (1965, 1964)

Viable Systems Model Staﬀord Beer (1972)

Making uncertainty amenable to decision‐making Gebng a hold on feedback structures Codifying the laws underpinning viability of organisaGons

1998 1989

1992 The nineties

Twin Towers, 2001

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Dot com crash, 2001

Financial crisis, 2008 ‐

US occupaEon of Iraq, 2003‐2009

Afghanistan, 2005 ‐

Social media revoluEon, 2001 ‐

CriGcal uncertainGes Methodological innovaGons from 1980s onwards

Soc Systems Methodology Peter Checkland (1984)

Systemic Governance Ralf‐Eckhard Türke (2008)

AdapGve Management C.S. (Buzz) Holling (1978)

TransiGon Management Jan Rotmans (1998) Design Thinking Bruce Mau (2000)

Intervening as learning AnGcipaGng non‐linear dynamics (Gpping points, regime change)

'Steering' large‐scale socio‐technical systems toward sustainability Modifying objects so that they can modify the world

Pointers to relevant approaches

Shiftn, ÂŠ2010 www.shiftn.com

Soc Systems Methodology

LUMAS‐model ‐ Learning for a User by a Methodologically‐ informed Approach to a SituaGon

Courtey: P. Checkland and J. Poulter (2004)

SSM •  A pragmaEc approach to collaboraEvely improve (our understanding of) fuzzy problemaEcal situaEons. •  Systems models are used as heurisEc devices, developed from an explicitly declared worldview, not as 'pictures of reality'. •  The purpose of SSM is not to reach consensus, but to agree on a temporary 'accomodaEon', as a ﬂeeEng consolidaEon point in a learning process. SSM = Learning for AcEon. •  SSM has been deployed in very varied circumstances (governance, informaEon mgt, hermeneuEcs). Shiftn, ©2010 www.shiftn.com

Generic Governance

Generic Governance •  An approach to facilitate the design and conEnuous re‐ design of social structures in complex governance semngs, where decision‐making power is devolved and dispersed and subject to diﬀerent worldviews (e.g. ciEes, regions). •  Generic governance integrates insights from several systems and futures thinking tradiEons. •  It is a meta‐methodology to improve the adapEve capacity of an organizaEon: "It facilitates the creaEon of condiEons for sustainable governance, which in consequence aids addressing wicked problems – or even dissolving them."

AdapGve Management

AdapEve Management •  Ecologists developed an iteraEve approach to govern complex human‐environmental systems. The methodology mixes rigorous scienEﬁc monitoring and characterisaEon of uncertainty with ongoing sense‐ making, negoEaEon and insEtuEon building. •  AdapEve management wants to contribute to 'resilience': adapEve capacity in the face of disturbances. •  Inspired by insights from complexity science it tries to understand how systems may be subjected to catastrophic regime shies. •  Panarchy: adapEve cycles are nested in a hierarchy across Eme and space (mulE‐level perspecEve). Shiftn, ©2010 www.shiftn.com

 BackcasEng  MulE‐level perspecEve  Fast and slow

TransiEon Management •  A meta‐methodology that emerged from Dutch innovaEon policy, inspired by technology studies, evoluEonary economics and complexity science. •  Focus on radical changes in large‐scale socio‐technical systems (energy, mobility, agriculture, health care) towards sustainability. •  TransiEon 'Management' = an oxymoron. Change comes about as result of interacEons between diﬀerent systemic levels. •  Connects short term experiments with a long‐term vision in a conEnuous learning dynamic: goal‐oriented incrementalism. Shiftn, ©2010 www.shiftn.com

Future Scenarios

Future scenarios •  Scenarios have been conceived as an instrument to explicity integrate future uncertainty into decision‐making. •  The methodology is extensively used, in a wide variety of semngs, from narrow decision‐oriented contexts to encompassing mulEstakeholder processes. •  The approach conEnues to evolve. In this seminar we will explore the use of scenarios as a way of acEon learning, in conjuncEon with other tools, as an apempt to reframe our basic assumpEons about global environmental problems: RIMA scenarios.

Design thinking

Design thinking •  Designers have expanded their reach beyond products and services, to include larger and more wicked dysfuncEonaliEes. •  Design plays on the performaEve character of our physical and insEtuEonal environment. Design is fundamentally acEon‐oriented, pragmaEc, voluntarist, utopian. •  The designer as reﬂecEve pracEEoner relies on meEculous, layered descripEon ('conversaEon avec une situaEon', cfr Paola Vigano), reframing of the problem situaEon and visualizaEon of alternaEve possibiliEes.

Working with wicked problems From 'tools' to 'approaches' to ... •  develop systemic insight •  make explicit normaEve choices •  pragmaEcally embrace acEon and experiment, hence provisionality and open‐endedness •  support an ongoing dynamic of learning and sense‐making

John Dewey 1859-1952

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