Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 1
3rd September 2013
Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Narendra Modi: The Choice of Digital India
Executive Summary
It’s time for The Mandate once again! 2014 Lok Sabha election is less than a year away and this election will be remembered in future as the most important election in current times. India will be a 67 year old democracy in 2014. It is still very young but a well-placed democracy since Independence. After two consecutive tenures of congress-led UPA government, 2014 will provide the opposition a fresh chance to prove their mettle and a new force in power could well pave for a new chapter for the young country. On the other side, the ruling UPA coalition led by Congress will surely look for a hattrick at the helm. Evidently it’s for this reason that the government is playing its development cards carefully. With opposition vying for the ruling government’s blood and the government trying to salvage some pride ahead of Lok Sabha elections, the Indian political scenario is charged up. Which way would the political wind finally blow to? Will the last minute developmental work be enough to save the boat for the Congress-led UPA alliance? Or would the Indian electorate demand a change in the high office? With India at this crossroad and some of the growth and developmental parameters of the country touching the rock bottom, we at foreseegame.com thought it would be best to resort to the citizens’ office and get their views on the upcoming election. The fact that the growth and developmental standards in India have taken a hard hit was revealed in our earlier Opinion Squares titled ‘Aspire…Alert…Awake India’ and ‘Satyamev Jayate 1’. Now the survey results exposed in ‘Satyamev Jayate 2’, clearly shows that the Indian electorate is conscious, intelligent, sensible and well aware of the last minute gimmicks political parties play to change the imminent course of the event. The questions throw light upon a politically conscious India and acts as an elementary poll prediction. Foreseegame.com is a unique portal of consumer engagement, which provides a platform for two way communication and engagement between the brand and the consumer using games of foresights. Microsec research is the research wing of Microsec Capital having experienced analysts across the sectors. We used the online feedback from the users of www.foreseegame.com. The users have been registered only on the basis of unique mobile numbers and hence, it provides authenticity and genuineness of the participants. The participation is being monitored by Google. About 24,100 participants have contributed from all parts of India; however the limitation of this sample is that it is from the group of people who are users of internet.
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 2
Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
The take away points:
Executive Summary
1. Growth Factor. The participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat government led by Narendra Modi as the best growth model for India. 54% participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat government led by Narendra Modi and the participants want to see that experience replicating in the whole country. 2. A clean sweep for Narendra Modi. More than 60% participants have unanimously voted for Narendra Modi as the best Prime Ministerial candidate for the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party became a distant second with just 11% votes.
3. Stability Counts. The question of Hung Parliament has made the participants tilt towards the combination that could provide stable government. 65% participants have said that they would be voting for the party or candidate, who is winning at the centre combination, capable of providing stable government. About 35% people however, will vote for their preferred party or candidate irrespective of who the winner is. 4. Modi Magic. Clearly Narendra Modi seems to have appeared as the clear choice for the Indians. The joint influence of BJP and NDA faded in the face of the Modi magic. A whopping 49% strong crowd said that they would vote for BJP and NDA only if Modi is declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate. While only 19% people have said that they won’t vote for BJP and NDA under any circumstances, about the same number of people have voiced their unfaltering support for the party/coalition. It seems that NDA will not be able to take advantage of antiincumbency factor if they don’t declare Modi as the PM candidate. 5. Sinking Boat. The situation is not working in favour of the Congress-led UPA government. It has become evident as about 52% people have expressed their reservation and said that they won’t vote for the Congress and UPA under any circumstance. Only about 21% people out of all the respondents have said they will vote for the Congress and UPA only when Rahul Gandhi is declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate, where as 15% respondents think they will vote for Congress and UPA without considering Rahul Gandhi factor 6. Credibility Matters. Credible leadership seems to be the decisive factor for the Indian electorate. About 65% of the respondents are ready to change their voting decision in favour of any national party if they declare a credible and honest person as their Prime Ministerial candidate.
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 3
Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Executive Summary
The take away points:
7. No to Third Front. Indian electorate is most apprehensive about the Third Front / Federal Front government. About 61% respondents have said that Third Front or Federal Front government would not be able to provide a stable government after next Lok Sabha election. 8. Decision Made. The answer to this question shows that Indian voters are quite conscious about their voting powers. With less than one year to go to the polls, about 70% of the respondents have already decided who they are going to vote for. 9. People’s Verdict. The verdict of people for both the present ruling party and the opposition is equally divided. While the falling price of rupee and rising inflation rate are two crucial problems, and 50% respondents have said that even if the present government succeeds in controlling inflation they would not vote for it. However, favour for the UPA also has touched the 50% mark as 32% respondents have said they would vote for UPA only if it succeeds in controlling inflation, while 18% respondents have maintained loyalty to the present government. 10. Lok Pal Bill. 49% respondents have said that even if the present UPA government passes the Lok Pal Bill by next election they would not vote for it. Only 32% respondents have said they will vote for UPA only if it passes the Lok Pal Bill. Here also 19% respondents have maintained loyalty to the present government.
Q 1. Which according to you is the best growth model for India? The participants have voted for the growth model of Gujarat government led by Narendra Modi as the best growth model for India. 9% 17%
Model of UPA followed at Central Govt. Model of Gujarat Govt.lead by Narendra Modi
4%
Model of Bihar Govt.lead by Nitish Kumar Model of Madhya Pradesh Govt. lead by Chauhan
7% 9%
54%
Model of Chhattisgarh Govt. lead by Raman Singh None of the above .. India needs new model
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Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Q 2. Who according to you is the best candidate for being the next Prime Minister of India? A clean sweep for Narendra Modi. 60% participants have unanimously voted for Narendra Modi as the best Prime Ministerial candidate for the upcoming Lok Sabha election.
A.K. Anthony Akhilesh Yadav Arun Jaitley Arvind Kejriwal Digvijay Singh J. Jayalalitha Karunanidhi L.K. Advani
11%
Mamata Banerjee Manmohan Singh Mayawati Montek Singh Ahluwalia Mulayam Singh Yadav Narendra Modi Naveen Patnaik Nitish Kumar
60%
P. Chidambaram Rahul Gandhi Raman Singh Sharad Pawar Shivraj Singh Chauhan Sonia Gandhi Sushma Swaraj Uddhav Thackeray None of the above
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Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Q 3. How will the possibility of a hung parliament after the upcoming Lok Sabha election affect your voting decision? Stability Counts. The question of Hung Parliament has made the participants tilt towards the combination that could provide stable government.
35%
I shall be voting for the party or candidate irrespective of who is winning at Centre
I shall be voting for the party or candidate who is winning at Centre combination capable of providing stable Government
65%
Q 4. How will BJP's declaration on making Narendra Modi as their Prime Ministerial Candidate in the upcoming Lok Sabha election affect your decision on voting? The joint influence of BJP and NDA faded in the face of Modi magic. A whopping majority said that they would vote for BJP and NDA only if Modi is declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate.
19%
I shall vote for BJP and NDA only when Modi is a P.M. Candidate
49% 19%
I shall vote for BJP and NDA when Modi is not declared as a P.M. Candidate I shall vote for BJP and NDA whether or not Modi is declared as a P.M. Candidate Will not vote for BJP and NDA
13%
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Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Q 5. How will the Congress' declaration on making Rahul Gandhi as their Prime Ministerial Candidate in the upcoming Lok Sabha election affect your voting decision? The situation is not working in favour of the Congress-led UPA government. About 52% people have expressed their reservation and said that they won’t vote for the Congress and UPA under any circumstance.
21%
12%
52%
I shall vote for Congress and UPA only when Rahul Gandhi is a P.M. Candidate I shall vote for Congress and UPA when Rahul Gandhi is not declared as a P.M.Candidate I shall vote for Congress and UPA. Rahul Gandhi is not a factor for me
15% Will not vote for Congress and UPA
Q 6. Will your voting decision change in favour of any national political party if they declare a credible and honest person like NR Narayan Murty as their prime ministerial candidate? Credible leadership seems to be the decisive factor for the Indian electorate. About 65% of the respondents are ready to change their voting decision in favour of any national party if they declare a credible and honest person as their Prime Ministerial candidate.
35%
Yes
No
65%
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 7
Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Q 7. Do you think that the Third Front/Federal Front can provide a stable government after the next Lok Sabha election?
61% of the respondents have said that Third Front or Federal Front government would not be able to provide a stable government
39%
Yes No
61%
Q 8. Have you decided on whom to vote for in the upcoming Lok Sabha election?
With less than one year to go to the polls, 70% of the respondents have already decided who they are going to vote for.
30% Yes
No
70%
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 8
Satyamev Jayate 2 – Survey Study
Q 9. Would you change your mind in the upcoming Lok Sabha election if the UPA Govt. succeeds in controlling inflation? 50% of the respondents have said that they would not vote for UPA even if it succeeds in controlling inflation
32%
Under no circumstances shall I vote for UPA and Congress
50%
I shall vote for UPA and Congress irrespective of inflation I shall only vote for UPA and Congress if it controls inflation
18%
Q 10. How will the passing of Lok Pal Bill before the next Lok Sabha election impact your voting decision?
49% of the respondents have said that even if the present UPA government passes the Lok Pal Bill by next election they would not vote for it.
Under no circumstances shall I vote for UPA and Congress
32% 49%
19%
I shall vote for UPA and Congress irrespective of the Lok Pall Bill
I shall only vote for UPA and Congress if it passes Lok Pall Bill
A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 3rd September 2013 | 9