LOOKING BEYOND REGIONAL AVIATION

As NASA says, Regional Air Mobility (RAM) is of great benefit to local communities and economies, and we could see more people flying short distances on zero emissions flights.

But what about the next stage, beyond regional aviation?

The most likely answer is that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting on the road to net zero.

The most likely answer is that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting on the road to net zero.

In its Vision 2050 Report, the ICCT gave a number of scenarios for aviation. The most ambitious and optimistic scenario, “breakthrough” shows zero emission planes (ZEP) being a small part of that, with SAF accounting for the biggest share of decarbonisation.

The reason for that is simple, the current commercial aircraft fleet is c.25.,000 aircraft.

In its Vision 2050 Report, the ICCT gave a number of scenarios for aviation. The most ambitious and optimistic scenario, “breakthrough” shows zero emission planes (ZEP) being a small part of that, with SAF accounting for the biggest share of decarbonisation.

The reason for that is simple, the current commercial aircraft fleet is c.25.,000 aircraft.

Aircraft coming off the production lines today will quite possibly still be flying in 2050 -the leasing companies in particular that own many of these aircraft want maximum value from their investment and will look for a second, third or even fourth operator.

The only solution for those aircraft are drop-in fuels, ideally E-Fuels made from renewable energy.

The long term picture

However, the companies we feature in our power-list could have a major impact in the long-term.

Eventually we imagine that the aircraft market will go the way of the automotive market, with regulators stepping in. For example, the electric car market has had a huge boost, with California banning the sale of gas powered cars from 2035

Aviation is growing, and as Heart CEO Anders Forslund pointed out in the recent Heart Aerospace Hangar Day, the incremental improvements the industry is making with e.g. more fuel efficient planes, will not be enough to stop aviation from increasing its share of 3% carbon emissions.

As a result, other authorities may well follow the example of Norway, which wants electric aircraft to be used on domestic routes from 2040.

When that happens, it will be the names on our power-list that come to the fore, along with the technologies and solutions they are developing.

Indeed, when that time comes we could well see multi billion dollar acquisitions with Boeing and Airbus buying some of these companies outright.