Books

Great power competition at sea

Paul French looks at the rush to control key sea lanes in the 21st century

To Rule Eurasia’s Waves: The New Great Power Competition at Sea (is a new book from Geoffrey Gresh, a professor of international relations at the National Defense University in Washington, DC. The book considers the rise of Russia, India and China as major shipping nations, transporting containerised goods crucial to our trade relationship, as well as becoming increasingly involved in protecting those international sea lanes.

For those in shipping and logistics To Rule Eurasia’s Waves explores the strategic maritime shifts under way from Europe to the Indian Ocean and Asia Pacific – the shift east. Gresh also considers how the melting of the Arctic ice cap will create new shipping lanes and exacerbate a contest for the control of Arctic natural resources. Both these issues together have received a new impetus as China’s government recently approved exploration of sea lanes including the Northwest Passage – what some have called the Polar Maritime Silk Road. China is indeed heavily investing in an icebreaking fleet and Chinese naval strategists have written that “whoever controls the Arctic Ocean will control the new corridor for the world economy”.

Gresh notes a change of power relations across the world. Speaking with him from his office in Washington Gresh notes, “The 2017 establishment of a Chinese military base in Djibouti signalled just how important China viewed the Horn of Africa and the Middle East…Djibouti is just one connection among many that the Chinese are developing. Further to the north and east of Djibouti near the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, for example, China is developing Gwadar, Pakistan. Gwadar’s development has experienced significant developmental and security obstacles of late, but Gwadar could one day offer another vital maritime logistics hub and potential base for easier access to the Gulf, as well as a starting point along the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor.”

As well as geopolitics Gresh has looked at the concurrent rise of China as a major port location. China’s investment in its domestic port facilities was partly based on projections of around 5% per annum growth in containerised trade out of China. But with trade disputes, a decoupling from China in some areas and the traumatic shock of Covid-19 are these projections still valid? Is it possible China has over-invested in its Maritime Silk Road strategy? Gresh thinks not and that with 90% of world trade still seaborne it’s been a wise investment. Certainly neither of the other Great Powers in competition with China – Russia or India – have invested to the same level.

One problem with trying to analyse this area called Eursasia is that we are talking about so many places - the Baltic and Black Seas, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red and Arabian Seas, the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, the Java Sea, the South and East China Seas, the Yellow Sea, the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Arctic Ocean. All of these sea lanes have their own issues from control to ownership to who gets to patrol them or defend them. Ultimately To Rule Eurasia’s Waves is a good read to start off any numbers of conversations about the future of the sea – conversations, from the tensions in the South China Seas to the environmental challenge of the polar routes, that need to be had to avoid any disputes from becoming tragedies. ●