SinoShip Spring Issue 2013

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos si w. ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism boss speaks Hosco’s Gao Yanming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 5 Economy

Currently 312 jack-ups or 65% of the total fleet of 483 jack-ups are older than 25 years — John Fredriksen, Seadrill

7 Lines

11

9 Yards 11 Offshore

2013 will be the defining year. A lot of people won’t make it

13 Finance 15 Commodities 16 Logistics 17 Cruise

■ ■ ■ Profiles 19 Sabrina Chao 21 Gao Yanming

19

— Sabrina Chao, Wah Kwong

Disastrous oversupply has led to an extreme imbalance of supply and demand

22 Zhang Hao

— Gao Yanming, Hosco

23 Andy Tung

21

■ ■ ■ Features

We are committed to building an outstanding Chinese cruise brand

24 Breakbulk 26 Shippers 30 Ship repair

■ ■ ■ Hubs 32 Shanghai 33 Taipei 35 Hong Kong

22

Discipline in capacity will be essential — Andy Tung, OOCL

■ ■ ■ Reviews 36 Books

■ ■ ■ Opinions 37 Andrew Craig-Bennett 38 Max Hong 39 Bei Hong

— Zhang Hao, HNA Tourism

25

23

Chinese forwarders need to gain an international foothold. They have been slow to realise this and that is a big weakness — Bo Drewsen, CLC Projects Sinoship SPRING 2013

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI Joshua Samuel Brown CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao, Cover: Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

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The truck stops here Correspondent Jason Jiang takes a look at China’s hugely fragmented trucking industry in this issue’s Logistics feature on page 16. It’s a fascinating read, not least for all the incredible stats Jason has teased out of the sector.

Remarkably, 95% of all Chinese trucking companies own less than two vehicles, hardly a recipe for smooth supply chains, and something evidenced in the wildly expensive costs of logistics in the People’s Republic.

Almost one in every five dollars of China’s GDP was spent on transporting goods in 2012, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, more than twice what Western countries spend on delivering products. The country’s logistics costs climbed 11.4% year-on-year to reach 9.4trn yuan ($1.51trn) last year.

Outgoing Chinese premier Wen Jiabao weighed into the issue this February urging logistics to be streamlined to cut costs.

For the haulage industry, the impetus to consolidate might not actually come from pure economic reasons.

Pollution has had blanket coverage in China in the past couple of months.

Frighteningly, pollution in the capital, Beijing, equates to smoking 21 cigarettes a day, according to a survey carried in the Xinmin Weekly this February.

As Dalian correspondent Mark Downing notes on his regular commodities column on page 15 China aims to curb pollution and greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 45% by 2020.

The trucking industry had best prepare to clean up its act. Recent environment ministry data shows that large trucks comprise

only about 5% of China’s vehicle fleet, but emit over 60% of particulate matter emissions. A new carbon tax is being mooted.

Still, where logistics costs are cheap is in e-commerce where, according to China Internet Watch, it costs just $1 per kilogram to deliver online sales in China, compared to $6 per kg in the US. Projections for the growth in online retail sales in the People’s Republic are truly staggering and are included in Shanghai correspondent Engen Tham’s exclusive interview with the ceo and co-founder of e-commerce giant Yihaodian, recently bought out by Walmart, on page 29.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

This January our parent company, Asia Shipping Media, launched Maritime CEO, our new global flagship publication. Maritime CEO is the hub for gaining exclusive insights into what the top people in shipping and offshore are thinking. A team of experienced journalists from around the world makes contact with the most important executives in our industry every day. These interviews are then turned into profiles and released one per day. Check it out at www.maritime-ceo.com.

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Economy ■ ■ ■

STEPPING UP Xi Jinping will focus on continuing most of the policies of his immediate predecessors

Xi’s priorities Urbanisation, domestic consumption and social stability should be near the top of the in-tray for the new leadership in Beijing, writes Paul French As Xi Jinping and his new team take the helm of the Chinese economy in March they are faced with the opportunity to make some changes.

However, a major reason to expect no significant policy changes in the economy is that Xi and his appointed cabinet have effectively been ‘understudies’ to the leadership during the Hu-Wen years.

Continuity is a major theme for the Communist Party leadership. Effectively this new generation of leaders will have no choice but to continue making significant reforms to China’s economic structure.

One area of likely change though is in the cities. Xi has signalled that continued mass urbanisation (aiming at over 60% of Chinese being urban residents by 2020) will be a key plank of the administration and policy decisions to continue hukou (household registration) reform will be at the top of the new leaders’ reform agenda.

Tier three cities, smaller than Beijing, Shanghai and the provincial capitals, are home to 57% of the urban population and to about 100m migrant

workers. Because these workers do not have an urban hukou, they usually do not have access to the same level of education, healthcare and housing services provided to permanent residents of the same city.

Still, urbanisation is, to a point, an unstoppable wave and this will boost the construction sector as new, more affordable, homes will be needed to accommodate the new city-dwellers.

Consequently the property market in tier three cities will have to remove barriers to home buying by migrant families.

While a new home will be out of reach for migrants, a mass of low-income home building programme is expected. With the average monthly salary for migrants at approximately RMB 2,249 a month, or an annual family income of about RMB 54,000, this indicates that a small share of migrants will be able to afford to buy in tier three cities, where the average price per sq m is about RMB5,000.

If subsidised low-income housing does start to appear then obviously the number of migrants in cities able to become permanent residents

and homeowners will increase with all the subsequent knockons for private consumption in the sectors of retail sales, healthcare and local city tax bases.

Following on from the Hu-Wen years social spending is expected to keep increasing. Government spending on healthcare rose by nine times during the Hu-Wen administration. However, medical care remains inadequate and unaffordable for most Chinese.

Xi must reform the system and increase healthcare spending.

The same point can be made for the education system. With the cities continuing to fill up the provision of social services is seen as a way to maintain social stability among urbanites.

Economically, and with key western economies still mired in recession, the policy of shifting the emphasis of economic growth from inward investment and exports to enhanced domestic consumption is very much the focus. Retail sales are still growing and Xi will want this trajectory to continue.

However, to do so the government must look to control inflation and stabilise the rising cost of living. This can be done through more efficient agriculture and sensible local taxation.

There are also two more nebulous policies that Xi must deal with, which both have serious ramifications for the future stability and trajectory of the Chinese economy. First, is rule of law, fundamental to China’s continued economic growth and social stability, and progress in this direction will be a key metric for evaluating the success of the incoming leadership team. To be frank little progress, if any, was made on this key area under the Hu-Wen team. Secondly, corruption. Repeated and continuing problems with graft plague the economy and the political system and threaten social stability and are a major investor concern. Xi’s appointment of Wang Qishan as head of the Party’s anti-graft commission, as well as to the Party’s standing committee is seen as a positive. Wang has a reputation as an effective crisis manager and understands China’s arcane and labyrinthine financial system.

This appointment may herald a more serious effort to fight corruption.

The Top Line Numbers

GDP ($trn) GDP per capita ($) Trade balance ($bn) FDI ($bn) GDP growth (%)

2011 47.3 5,400 155 171 9.3

2012 52.3 6,100 220 150 7.8

2013 58.5 7,000 260 120 8.3

Source: Mintel, JP Morgan, China Economic Quarterly, National Bureau of Statistics

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LINES ■ ■ ■

Red ink continues to f low across the nation. The desperate situation facing Chinese shipping lines continues to worsen, according to the country’s shipowning association.

“Around 70% of domestic shipping companies were in the red in 2011, while the number exceeded 80% in 2012,” Zhang Shouguo, general secretary of the China Shipowners’ Association said. Zhang reckoned that prospects for 2013 were likely to be even harsher than last year.

The ‘three strikes and you’re out’ ruling at Chinese stock market rules is causing local lines cause for concern. Any listed company that reports two straight years of losses is put on a special watch, and those that suffer three straight years of red ink can be thrown off the bourses.

CSC Phoenix and China Cosco Holdings are now into the two-year warning zone, while Nanjing Tanker, the tanker arm of Sinotrans & CSC Group, faces a trading suspension as it warned shareholders it would post its third full year loss. Cosco’s poor form has even seen a nascent shareholders’ revolt calling for the head of chairman, Wei Jiafu.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) will spend up to $14bn this year on exploration, drilling units, oilfield service vessels and other facilities. The company plans to start production at 10 new offshore oilfields in Chinese waters this year, with 24 more projects under construction. Subsidiary China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) will buy two 400ft jackups and a 5,000ft semi-sub ordered as well as 14 utility vessels, a PSV, a survey ship and a seismic vessel.

Two of China’s leading shipping lines, Cosco Container Lines (Coscon) and Sinotrans & CSC, have announced plans to cooperate on China - Japan container routes, in a further sign of state-run maritime conglomerates being forced from on high to work together during the downturn. From late February, the two subsidiaries of Coscon and Sinotrans&CSC, Shanghai PanAsia Shipping and Sinotrans Container Lines, will jointly operate routes from north and east China to Japan in an effort to consolidate the two companies’ resources.

The news follows on from last autumn’s announcement that Coscon and China Shipping Container Lines would collaborate for the first time on a number of domestic routes.

Following Cosco Dalian’s orders for a series of VLCCs last year to contribute to the long-planned VLCC pool in China, China Merchant Energy Shipping (CMES) has ordered plenty of similar ships to join the grouping.

CMES said last year that it would use around RMB2.9bn raised from stock offerings to order up to 10 VLCCs in the next three years. It is not hanging around, ordering three plus three option VLCCs at Shanghai Jiangnan

Changxing Shipyard. CMES then ordered a further six ships split evenly between Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding.

HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management, the first cruiseship management company in mainland China, celebrated the maiden voyage of its own cruiseship, Henna, on January 26. The 47,700gt cruiseship, formerly called Pacific Sun, was bought from P&O Cruises by HNA last year, and will start out operating a Sanya - Halong Bay - Danang route. In the summer season, Henna will switch homeports to Tianjin from May and operate routes to Korean destinations including Incheon, Jeju Island and Yeosu.

Zhang Hao, president of HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management, is interviewed on page 22.

Sabrina Chao stepped up to become chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings in January. She takes over from her father George, who has been appointed president of the famous Hong Kong bulker outfit. Vincent Lai has been appointed chief financial officer and a director of the company. Ms Chao has been running the day-to-day activities of the 60-year-old firm for the past couple of years ever since her father was taken ill.

An exclusive interview with the new boss is on page 19.

Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine

Transport is all set for a dramatic expansion of its fleet in 2015 following the signing in mid-January of a $600m boxship deal at Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries. Canada’s Seaspan has inked a deal with the Korean yard for five 14,000 teu boxships, with another five options. The eco-friendly ships will go to Yang Ming on very cheap long term charter when they deliver in two years time.

According to Alphaliner statistics Yang Ming is currently the 14th largest containerline in the world with a fleet totalling 358,510 teu.

Despite a tough final quarter Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) managed revenues and liftings for 2012 that are likely to be the envy of most of their peers. OOCL moved 5.22m teu last year, up 3.7% from 2011. Revenues grew 6.7% to $5.9bn, the company’s parent OOIL said in a release.

Intra-Asia and Australasian trades proved to be the best performers accounting for 2.67m teu and $2.09bn in revenues. OOCL’s ceo Andy Tung (pictured) told SinoShip: “It is critical that apart from the need for effective cost controlling measures on the individual carrier level, discipline in capacity deployment and the ability to hold on to sustainable freight rates will also be essential on the industry-wide level to help rebuild a more stable and healthier business environment for all.”

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

Of snakes and ladders Only offshore and LNG offer uptick in slippery year for shipbuilders, Wang Fenglei writes January was comparatively brisk for newbuild orders around the world, but by no means enough to sate the looming empty drydocks across the People’s Republic. Offshore and liquefied natural gas are the only bright spots in what is expected to be a horrendous year for yards in China.

Startling statistics from London’s Clarkson Research Services show the real plight Chinese shipbuilders face.

Only 153 Chinese shipyards still had an orderbook at the end of 2012. This compares to 243 yards with ships on order at the end of 2010, the research arm of the world’s largest broker noted.

As of start 2013, 1,832 vessels of 109.4m dwt were on order at Chinese shipyards, a sharp fall of 47.3% in dwt terms when compared to the orderbook as of start 2010. Those receiving orders shrunk too. 149 shipyards received new orders in 2010, but during 2012 only 69 shipyards managed to take any contracts. “[As] orderbooks decline, it is unlikely that local yards will be

able to access any sort of state financial aid,” Clarkson noted.

There are now 90 fewer yards with an orderbook than at the start of 2010.

Concluding, Clarkson reported: “The weak bulk contracting environment means that plenty of other yards risk running out of work. Those yards which are most successful at continuing the diversification process begun in 2011 and 2012 will be the yards most likely to endure.”

Commenting on the figures, Matthew Flynn, Hong Kongbased managing director of shipbuilding database, Worldyards, told SinoShip: “This year will distinguish the committed tougherthan-steel-itself players from the tourists who were expecting that shipbuilding was going to be a sunny paradise.”

The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) 2012 annual report pointed to a glimmer of hope in the form of offshore.

In 2012, the offshore equipment market gained steady

153

Shipyards that still possessed an orderbook at the end of 2012. 243 builders had work at the end of 2010 growth, and made several breakthroughs in research and design, and actual construction. According to preliminary statistics, the international market share of China’s offshore products increased from less than 10% in 2011 to more than 15% in 2012.

CANSI predicts the shipbuilding industry in China will remain in the doldrums this year, however, the offshore market will remain active, especially the floating offshore equipment market.

As well as offshore, 2013 could be a breakthrough year for Chinese shipyards chasing precious LNG vessel contracts. Thus far only Shanghai’s Hudong-Zhonghua has built

LNG ships, but that could all change in the coming months.

China Shipping Development (CSD) tells SinoShip it is still discussing with various parties plans to order a further six LNG carriers, likely to be with Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL).

“The discussion of this project has taken a long time, and no contracts have been signed yet,” an official in Shanghai said.

In 2011, MOL and CSD ordered four 172,000 cu m LNG carriers at Shanghai’s HudongZhonghua, the first gas carriers ever ordered by China Shipping.

The pair are believed to be close to following up this order with one for six ships at the same yard, in a deal believed to be worth around $1.1bn, a source in Shanghai told SinoShip. The ships will shift gas for Sinopec from Australia.

Meanwhile, BG, set to become China’s largest LNG supplier, has committed to build at least two more gas carriers in China with partner CNOOC. Three shipyards have been shortlisted for the contract. This new pair adds to two ships already committed under LNG agreements signed in March 2010.

CNOOC features prominently across the nascent LNG scene. It is also planning to place an order for one plus one 30,000 cu m LNG carriers. Currently both Jiangnan Shipyard and Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co are bidding for the contract.

CNOOC is also tendering for the construction of another two smaller LNG carriers with Shanghai Merchant Ship Design & Research Institute (SDARI) undertaking the design work for the vessels.

In the meantime, Dalian Intech Group, a chemical logistics provider is planning a 28,000-30,000 cu m LNG carrier newbuild project. Cosco Dalian Shipyard and Bohai Shipbuilding Industry are currently bidding for the project.

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

Climbing the rig rungs China is undercutting Singapore’s rig builders by as much as 20% as it looks to muscle into the sector, reports chief correspondent Katherine Si How many times do we say on these pages, it won’t be long before China leads the world in this field? Often. And so it is with rigs, something that is the mainstay of Singapore at present, followed by Korea, but a segment where familiar nascent telltale signs in China – cheap prices, big name owners sniffing around, more designs on offer – suggest it is on course for leadership.

The State Council’s recently released plans for energy development place an emphasis on China accelerating the exploration and development of offshore oil and gas, with specific focus on improving deepwater capabilities.

Li Wenqian, an analyst from CIConsulting, reckons the nation’s rig builders should concentrate on the Africa and Asia markets. With China’s price advantages, plus the good relationships with African nations and its influence among Asian counties, these two regions are ripe for business.

China is undercutting Singapore’s rig builders by as

NEED TO KNOW

much as 20% as it looks to muscle into the sector, according to analysts in Singapore.

In December, for instance, China’s Yangzijiang secured a $170m order for a jack-up rig, while a similar contract at Keppel Offshore & Marine in Singapore cost $205m.

China has made clear it plans to bag 20% of the global market for rigs, production facilities and offshore products by 2015.

Cosco Shipping, the leader in the domestic semi-submersible market, has predicted that the People’s Republic is about to enter a peak season for building new drilling platforms, as a large number of older platforms are scrapped.

Not everyone is quite so bullish, however. A senior official from the Economic Research Centre of China Shipbuilding Industry Co (CSIC) tells SinoShip: “The drilling platform building sector in China has both big opportunities and big difficulties.” He predicts that despite big advances in rig construction in recent years, China is still a way off from world domination.

NEED TO KNOW COSL China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL), the leading integrated oilfield services provider in the offshore China market, operates 34 drilling rigs of which 27 are jack-up drilling rigs and seven are semi-submersible drilling rigs, with two accommodation rigs, four module rigs and eight land drilling rigs. The company predicts increasing drilling rig business in 2013, and global drilling platfrom daily rates should remain high. Its spending plans for this year will see two 400ft jack-ups and a 5,000ft semi-sub ordered as well as 14 utility vessels, a PSV, a survey ship and a seismic vessel.

Others are also unconvinced the Chinese can overhaul Singapore anytime soon.

Janice Chua, head of equity research (Singapore) at DBS Vickers, told Channel News Asia in January: “It is a tall order for the Chinese yards to try and get the global market share for rigs.

“In order for the Chinese yards to have a bigger market share globally, what is more important is the soft skills of project management, engineering, design expertise, as well as ensuring that they can deliver the projects on time and according to the clients specification. That will take at least three years to build for any of these offshore structures.”

John Fredriksen, a man

famed for spotting a bargain, is clearly a fan of China’s rig capabilities. His offshore firm, Seadrill, entered into an agreement for the construction of two high specification jackup drilling rigs with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Offshore (DSIC Offshore) in late January.

The new jack-ups are of the same design as the four jackups currently under construction by Seadrill at Dalian and Jurong, Singapore.

Fredriksen commented on the order: “Currently 312 jack-ups or 65% of the total fleet of 483 jack-ups are older than 25 years.” Such statistics clearly show there’s plenty of orders brewing for China and elsewhere.

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Finance ■ ■ ■

Booted from the bourses Listings in China are not so easy these days, writes Engen Tham

64

DOWNWARD SPIRAL Many loss making lines face automatic delisting

Percentage drop in money raised from IPOs in China last year

One of the early themes to Chinese shipping in 2013 has been the threat to many top names of being delisted. China operates a ‘three strikes’ rule, whereby any company reporting losses for three consecutive years faces being booted from a bourse. Shipping’s downturn is entering its fifth year. More than 80% of all lines in China reported a loss last year, according to the China Shipowners’ Association, which has warned 2013 will be even tougher.

While shipping players in recent years may consider themselves to be trapped in a vortex of bad luck, which certain other sectors seem to have escaped, listed shipowners need not feel they are the only ones with poorly performing shares, as shares of firms on mainland exchanges plummeted across the board.

Partly in response to flagging prices, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)

has not approved any IPOs in mainland China since October last year, causing a backlog of more than 900 listing hopefuls.

As the commission tinkers with the approval process and regulations in a bid to tighten control over mainland exchanges and up the ante of prospective listing candidates, any shipping players in the 900 strong queue must face a higher hurdle to floatation.

Mainland stock markets are in decline Mainland stock markets are in decline. Firms raised $14.6bn through mainland China IPOs last year, a 64% decline from 2011, Bloomberg data shows.

“IPOs do not earn money at the moment, the price to earnings ratio has declined to approximately 30% in 2012, from 71% in 2010, so there has been a fall

of more than 50%,” says Lisa Tian, managing director of the global capital markets division of Morgan Stanley Huaxia.

Commentators disagree on the motivations for the disappearance of new listings.

“There hasn’t been a formal restriction to IPOs. Some of the candidates, within this last year have failed to meet the listing criteria, because the economy has not done very well, so they need to go through the approval process again,” says a source at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

However, some consider it a means for the government to control flows of capital in the market.

“Last year, our application to list China National Building Materials Group Corporation worth RMB12bn was rejected.

If it had floated, it would have drained liquidity and put downward pressure on prices - destabilising the market. One of the government’s tasks is to

stabilise the stock markets,” Tian says.

During this hiatus, the CSRC has taken steps to ensure that the financial condition of prospective candidates is accurately reported, asking the auditors and accountants of such companies to scrutinize further their financials. Spot checks of accounts were also introduced by the CSRC. The measures are an attempt by the CRSC to bring to heel Chinese firms, whose accounts are often riddled with inaccurate and occasionally fraudulent figures.

“There is a pretty serious issue with false reporting. Typically, many use internal transactions, or create fake transactions and record them in the financial statements in order to meet requirements for listing, as they have to show growth. It’s easy for shipping companies to falsify profit reports, because you can ask your clients to provide you with fake shipping order forms.

Also revenues which are to come in the future are reported as current revenues, sometimes the capital spent is reduced, sometimes the revenues are expanded, salaries for workers can be reduced on the books,” explains Tian. “There are many different ways.”

If there are shipping firms in the queue to list and they haven’t been deterred by the falling share prices of their brethren, then they should be advised to go through their figures with a fine toothcomb.

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Commodities ■ ■ ■

DEADLY EXHAUST Pollution in Beijing equates to smoking 21 cigarettes a day according to a recent survey

Where the green gas grows Dalian correspondent Mark Downing provides readers with a lowdown on LPG prospects in China Beijing’s air pollution has recently gone from bad to offthe-chart dangerous. Fully 5m gridlocked cars choke Beijing’s streets. Countrywide, China depends on coal-burning plants to power its industry and heat hundreds of millions of homes.

Scale this traffic and pollution across China’s hundred cities of greater than a million people and this is all taking a heavy toll on the public’s health and patience. Beijing’s legitimacy to rule based on its ability to dependably deliver improved living standards is increasingly questioned.

For years the government has downplayed the deteriorating air — insisting it was fog — but just recently came clean calling it pollution. Initiatives have been launched to improve emission standards for factories and vehicles, converting heating systems from coal to gas, and renewable energy investments.

China aims to curb pollution

and greenhouse gas emissions by setting a goal of 10% of China’s total energy consumption to be powered by natural gas by 2020. To be feasible, large

industry consumes 20%, with the balance used by other segments.

Some traders in China assess that between 50-60% of domestically produced LPG is consumed

For the foreseeable future imports are expected to decline as China ramps up its own production barriers need to be overcome for gas to be cheaper than coal, such as enacting a pricing mechanism to encourage the costly development of domestic gas resources as well as further investment in transport and storage infrastructure.

As one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) plays a role in China’s greener energy portfolio.

State-owned Sinopec estimates that China’s residential/commercial sector consumes about 60% of the country’s LPG supply for cooking and heating, its

as a petrochemical feedstock to make aromatics which are then blended with gasoline — potentially as high as 80% in China’s north — according to Platts.

Nominally, LPG as autogas is an alternative fuel in China for motorcycles, taxis and public buses but with limited specialised infrastructure to support. Of China’s 199m registered motor vehicles in 2010, only 143,000 were powered by autogas according to the World LPG Association. Nearby South Korea, by comparison, is the leading autogas consumer

powering 2.3m vehicles.

In the last decade, China significantly relied on LPG imports up until the economic downturn, but such dependency is now rapidly falling as its growing oil refining capacity has boosted production. Currently China produces most of its LPG supply from crude oil distillation, but in the future may have the potential to derive LPG from natural gas production like most of the world’s major exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Indonesia and Australia.

China’s LPG market is increasingly dynamic.

PetroChina and Sinopec have continued to unify LPG sales of their subsidiary refiners while major natural gas companies have expanded their retail business and increased construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipelines. As substitute gas availability has increased, residential/commercial demand has dropped, resulting in fiercer competition among LPG distributors.

Since LPG is as much a final product ready for consumption as a feedstock, it is increasingly in demand by the industrial and petrochemical sectors. LPG burns clean and reaches high temperatures suitable for specialised grades of steel production.

Additionally, a growing share of domestic production is destined for the rapidly developing LPG deep processing market to create such products as propylene and aromatic gasoline. Ultimately, China is expected to reach 6.92m tonnes per year of such production capacity by 2016.

Taking Western cities as a guide, improving air quality is a decades-long project. LPG as engine fuel may have high growth potential in the longer term as a means to further curb worsening urban air pollution.

But for the foreseeable future, imports are expected to decline as China ramps up its own production to meet the rising demand of its LPG deep processing industry.

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

Truck disconnect

Jason Jiang dissects the nation’s severely fragmented haulage sector For all China’s incredible advances economically in the past 20 years it remains an incredibly wasteful society when it comes to logistics. As a percentage of total GDP in China logistics has remained a pretty constant 18% for the past five years, roughly twice the average of developed nations.

Much of this fault lies in the seriously fragmented nature of China’s trucking network. China relies hugely on trucks to shift cargoes. For containers, for instance, less than one in ten are shifted from ports by rail.

Neighbouring India manages 35% by rail.

Remarkably, 95% of the trucking companies in China own on average 1.5 trucks, according to statistics from leading truck manufacturer Scania.

The market is also intensely competitive due to lack of regulations.

An official from the China Road Transport Association (CRTA) who declined to be named describes the trucking market in China as “chaotic”.

“Currently China’s road cargo station development is seriously lagging behind, mainly due to insufficient facilities, incomplete standards and vicious competition within the industry,” he warns. “The market remains highly fragmented and very few trucking firms have a nationwide network. Most of the time, shippers have to deal with numerous logistics operators which results in high expenses,” he adds.

“The trucking industry is on the low end of the logistics chain with very low profit margins,” comments Dai Lipeng, general manager of Belgian logistics giant Ahlers’ Greater 16

www.sinoshipnews.com

China operations. “Now the rising fuel prices have further squeezed profits, making it even more difficult.”

In order to increase trucking efficiency, Chinese authorities are trying to get the local industry to develop so-called ‘drop and pull’ trucking, common in more developed nations whereby a driver drops a loaded or unloaded unit at a shipper or receiver and hooks up to the unit which was previously dropped and returns it to the ramp.

In the US, drop and pull transport accounts for 70 to 80% of the total road cargo transport volume, while in China the percentage is less than 10%.

Beijing has made plans to build a series of drop and pull transport networks. The Ministry of Transport has also established a fund to subsidise drop and pull trucking trial projects with up to RMB10m on offer per project. Shanghai has also released a new policy to exempt several fees and taxes for companies operating drop and pull trucks.

“The low utilisation of drop and pull transport is indeed a big reason for the low efficiency

and high freight costs of trucking transport in China,” comments Mats Harborn, managing director of Scania (China).

While applauding the government for acknowledging this problem, Harborn warns that fixing this might be “just the tip of the iceberg”.

The drop and pull mode works for large trucking companies with large fleets and networks, he says, but due to the disjointed nature of the sector this is of little value.

“Too many small private trucking companies have caused fierce competition in the market which results in each truck carrying less cargo at a lower price,” Harborn continues.

Harborn reckons drop and pull trucking will not make a significant improvement to the industry now. The priority of the government should be to put in place the necessary legal frameworks to ensure the industry can grow healthily, not in its current cutthroat mode.

One of the very few firms with a sizeable fleet is Sinotrans, China’s largest logistics provider.

Currently Sinotrans has built a network of seven road

logistics distribution centres in China, running around 400 owned trucks and managing around 4,000 vehicles from other companies.

“As more manufacturers have been moving bases into the less developed mid-west regions to save costs, we are constantly updating our supply chain solutions to overcome the challenges it might bring by improving the intensity of our trucking network, integrating and managing fleets from smaller companies and customising supply chain solutions for clients,” relates Wang Xugang, an official from Sinotrans’ Chengdu branch.

With factories increasingly migrating west, the country is building roads on a scale the world has never before seen.

China has the longest expressway system in the world.

In 2012, 12,409 km of expressways were added to the network – that’s roughly four times the whole of the UK’s entire motorway system, by comparison.

From 2010 to 2020, the annual investment planned on highway development in China has been set at RMB100bn.

Now terminals need to be built. Transfar Group, a private Chinese enterprise, has been developing logistics centres and road ports (integrated trucking service platforms) throughout China together with Singaporebased Global Logistics Properties (GLP) under a joint venture. The jv has built three road ports so far, in Chengdu, Suzhou and Hangzhou. In January this year, the venture signed another two road port projects in Quanzhou and Shijiazhuang. There are plans to construct a further ten facilities.

“The industry needs the support of a complete operating network nationwide, and the development of standardised road cargo stations is very essential,” concludes a spokesperson from Transfar Group.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

Take off for Hong Kong’s cruise ambitions at Kai Tak There’s just three months before the official opening of the long awaited new terminal at the city’s former airport

Up and down the Chinese coastline giant cruise terminals have been built or are under construction. Finally, however, the chance has come for Hong Kong to have its moment in the spotlight. It is not long to go now until the June opening of a brand new terminal situated where the old airport used to be at Kai Tak on Victoria Harbour.

Local authorities are going all out to ensure there will be plenty of business for the sharktooth styled state-of-the-art facility.

The city hosted its first cruise forum in Hung Hom’s Hotel Icon in January in association with Seatrade with the likes of Carnival, Azamara Club Cruises, Royal Caribbean, Crystal Cruises and Star Cruises all in attendance.

A total of 16 cruise ships are

scheduled to berth in Kai Tak this year. Last year, cruise passengers staying overnight spent an average of HK$4,833 per day, twice as much as conventional tourists. The second berth at Kai Tak is expected by 2015.

Commissioner for Tourism, Philip Yung, said: “Hong Kong is well positioned to drive the growth of cruise business in this part of the world, and the commissioning of the Kai Tak cruise terminal is an important part of our strategy to develop Hong Kong into a leading cruise hub in this region.”

The potential is enormous.

Carnival Asia chairman and ceo, Pier Luigi Foschi, predicts that Asians, led by China, will account for up to 20% of the global market by 2020. In 2011, 1.7m Asians took a cruise.

Foschi said at the forum that number will hit 7m by 2020, and

could even be as high as 10m.

Hong Kong’s ambitions to develop into a regional cruise hub have received support from Beijing. In June last year it was announced that mainland tour groups would be allowed to take cruises from Hong Kong to Taiwan, and then visit Japan or Korea in the same journey before returning to the mainland.

“This is really good news for both Hong Kong and cruise operators, as the measure allows us to tap the growing mainland market and organise more interesting itineraries in the East Asian region,” Yung noted.

The commissioner was realistic on what it would take to get the city more firmly established on the global cruise map – greater interaction.

“It is important,” he said, “for neighbouring ports to work together to strengthen the overall appeal of the region and spark the demand for cruise tourism for our part of the world.”

Kai Tak’s dramatic terminal designed by Foster+Partners is on the southwestern tip of the old runway with unobstructed views of the eastern entrance to Hong Kong harbour, framing both Hong Kong Island and Kowloon. The terminal, which has been under construction for the past four years, has a large, rectangular footprint and is arranged over three main levels, punctuated by four atria that draw daylight deep inside the building.

A pedestrian promenade rises up through the terminal and opens onto a large public roof garden.

The terminal will have the capacity to disembark a total of 8,400 passengers and 1,200 crew. The 850 m long berth is capable of handling two 360 m long ships simultaneously.

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Shipping in the blood

Sabrina Chao vows to continue in the same vein as her father as the new head of Wah Kwong

I

n her first interview since assuming the chairmanship of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings in January, Sabrina Chao warned that this year is likely to be the absolute nadir of shipping’s downturn.

“2013 will be the defining year,” Chao, 38, told our brand new sister publication Maritime CEO. “A lot of people won’t make it,” she added.

In a recent management shuffle, Sabrina took over from her father, George as chairman of the 60-year-old shipping line, which operates a 28-ship fleet.

Her father has become president, although he will not be resuming any daily duties.

The step up the corporate ladder is in name only as Sabrina has actually been running the day-to-day operations of the Hong Kong firm for the past couple of years since her father was taken ill in late 2010.

She joined the family firm 11 years ago, following stints with Jardine Fleming and PricewaterhouseCoopers and completing her degree from Imperial College, London.

Do not expect too much to change at the company. Like father, like daughter, the plans are to remain conservative.

“We will stick with our long term busi-

many downturns. An especially brutal experience from the 1980s has made it more cautious than ever when tides turn in the industry.

On the current ongoing difficulties that shipping is suffering, Chao says, “It’s taught me that a solid foundation, a pru-

Managing risk, enhancing shipmanagement systems and positioning ourselves to take advantage of opportunities are key strategies ness plan of being a provider of first class bulk shipping services to our customers,” said Chao. “We have always been cautious about counterparties and securing long term revenue streams. In the current environment, managing risk, enhancing our shipmanagement systems and positioning ourselves to take advantage of opportunities are key strategies.”

In 60 years Wah Kwong has endured

dent business model and having a good team of people can get you through most crises.”

The team she talks of includes one of Hong Kong’s best known — and most savvy — men in shipping, former Clarkson broker Tim Huxley, who is the ceo of Wah Kwong and a solid sounding board for any investment ideas the new chairman plans.

A founding member of the Hong Kong

Shipowners Association, Wah Kwong has always championed the Special Administrative Region as a shipping centre par excellence. This memorably saw George Chao three years ago chide former Hong Kong chief executive Donald Tsang for failing to take the importance of shipping seriously enough. It is also something that has rubbed off on the daughter.

“We are fortunate to have been established in Asia’s maritime centre, Hong Kong, for 60 years,” she says, “and you can’t ask for a better place to run a shipowning company from. We want to continue to not only develop our own company, but also to contribute to the future development of Hong Kong’s shipping industry.”

To this end, a lavish book published late last year to commemorate the line’s 60th anniversary has been sent to every school in the city.

This latest Chao clearly is aware of her roots, and the importance of continuity at a family shipping line.

NEED TO KNOW Wah Kwong CelebratING its 60th anniversary NEED TO KNOW last year, Wah Kwong traces its roots to Shanghai. It is a founding member of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association.

Currently owns 28 ships either wholly or in partnership: four VLCCs, a panamax crude tanker, ten small LPG tankers, four capesize bulkers, four supramaxes, two post-panamax bulkers, a panamax bulker and two handysize bulkers. Orderbook currently has a single VLCC at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, due for delivery in June 2013. Sabrina Chao assumed chairmanship of the company in January, becoming the third generation of the family to take the helm. Former Clarksons broker Tim Huxley is ceo.

Sinoship SPRING 2013

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Scrapping champion Few have been more vocal on shipping’s malaise than Hosco’s Gao Yanming, as Katherine Si finds out

T

his January marked an anniversary of sorts – Gao Yanming’s 15 years at the helm at one of China’s most highly rated shipping lines, not that this even-minded executive paused to celebrate. Come rain or shine for the shipping industry Gao has had a level head, speaking his mind for the greater good of his peers, and few have done more among local owners to foster a more sophisticated maritime culture in China.

Downturns are nothing new to Gao. He took over Hebei Ocean Shipping Co (Hosco) in 1998, when the then 18-year-old line was on its knees. It was an ailing, state-run small company – arguably the only thing significant about it at the time were its debts.

Established in 1980 Hosco was a bulker division of Cosco until it was dropped following years of losses.

Gao was asked by Hebei province, surrounding Beijing, to drop his own successful private firm and come and resurrect the sinking outfit.

At the time the fleet had a total tonnage of 64,000dwt, the Baltic Dry Index stood at 780 points and many thought Gao was crazy to take on the challenge.

Gao was given a free hand to take it over, turn it private, and shift headquarters to freewheeling Hong Kong.

Successful cost cutting, streamlining, and purchases at the nadir of ship price

cycle in the late 1990s – when panamaxes were sold for less than $2m a piece – started the turnaround.

As such Hosco, and subsidiary North China Lines, were guinea pigs for the raft of listings that would change the faces of larger state behemoths (read Cosco, China Shipping, Sinotrans) in the decade to come.

Like the tides, Hosco has grown and contracted with the markets. During shipping’s great boom years the Hosco operated fleet went as high as 170 vessels.

Reading the runes, however, Gao pulled back from the Lehman Brothers abyss, faster and more forcefully than others.

The downturn in shipping, which if one discounts the brief false dawn of 2010, is now into its fifth year. From the outset Gao could see the vast oversupply of ships and has been among the most vocal champions of scrapping ships. In this regard he has led from the front. Hosco’s fleet has been chopped in half, to less than 70 operated of which 35 are owned, with plenty of ships recycled and many more charters not renewed. The owned fleet is now very young as a result, averaging just four years.

Gao tells SinoShip that the shipping market is still suffering its worst crisis for more than a hundred years.

“The key reason for this,” he says, “is the disastrous oversupply which has led to an extreme imbalance of supply and demand.”

Gao suggests that worldwide tonnage is still

around 40% more than is actually needed at present.

He lambasts fellow owners who are taking advantage of today’s extremely low newbuild prices at shipyards.

In a number of recent letters to Yang Chuantang, the minister of transport, Gao has urged for more policy support to increase the volumes of old local ships being scrapped as well as to improve the level of Port State Control (PSC).

“China should accelerate phasing out old vessels to promote the restructuring of the shipping industry,” Gao said in one letter.

The government should introduce policies to encourage scrapping old vessels, for example, exempting income tax on scrapping vessels for a certain period, Gao reckons. Also, the ministry should lower the mandatory scrapping age of vessels.

Currently the mandatory scrapping age of tankers, bulkers and boxships in China is 31 years, 33 years and 34 years respectively, which makes China among the countries with the highest ship ages. Gao has suggested the scrapping age of bulkers and boxships should be lowered to 27 years, and tankers to 25 years.

In the meantime, Gao, in what might be viewed in international circles as a protectionist move, has also suggested the government should have stricter regulations on foreign vessels with ages of more than 20 years entering inland rivers and seas, ostensibly to protect the safety and environment of the Yangtze River, Pearl River and Bohai Sea. “Relevant authorities have started to discuss these issues,” Gao tells SinoShip, “but actual implementation is likely to take some time.”

Regardless of how long it might take, Gao is a rarity among today’s shipowning community, practicing what he preaches.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Hosco China’s third largest bulker operator, founded in 1980 originally in Hebei, but since switched to Hong Kong.

Fleet now numbers around 70 ships.

Headed by Gao Yanming for the past 15 years.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Cruise debut

This January saw the launch of the first dedicated Chinese cruise company.

Jason Jiang interviews Zhang Hao, president of HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management

I

t says something of just how hot cruise shipping is as a topic in China right now that the seventh most read story on our sister site SinoShip News for the whole of 2012 was the report that the Pacific Sun cruiseship was heading to China. Indeed, cruise stories counted for three of the 20 most viewed pages on our site. Little wonder with latest projections saying Asia, led by China, will account for 20% of the global cruise market by 2020.

The 47,700 gt Pacific Sun was bought by the HNA Group from P&O Cruises last year.

Built in 1986, the ship was Carnival’s Jubilee

The cruise market in China is monopolised by foreign cruise companies 22

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before repositioning to Australia where she made her maiden cruise from Sydney in 2004.

HNA owns transport giants such as Hainan Airlines and Grand China Logistics.

Expanding its remit in a bid to build a complete tourism industry chain, the group launched HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management last year and installed Zhang Hao as president.

The Pacific Sun went to Singapore where it was refitted and on January 26 it made its historic maiden voyage under its new name, Henna, on a route from Hainan to Vietnam, calling Sanya, Halong Bay and Danang.

In the summer season, Henna will switch homeports to Tianjin from May and operate routes to Korean destinations including Incheon, Jeju Island and Yeosu.

“We are committed to building an outstanding Chinese cruise brand and promoting the development of China’ s cruise industry, this is our ambition,” Zhang tells SinoShip.

The cruise industry is still very much in its infancy in China, admits Zhang.

“Currently, the cruise market in China is monopolised by foreign cruise companies like Carnival and Royal Caribbean,” Zhang says. “Chinese people only started to know the concept of cruise voyaging since 2006 when these companies first entered the China market.”

While acknowledging these international brands have laid a “good market foundation” for cruising in China, Zhang is keen to point out what he hopes will set his company apart from the competition.

“As the first cruise company in China,” Zhang says, “apart from the advantage of being first, we are focusing more on customising the cruise product and our whole service system for Chinese people according to their consuming habits.”

In a SinoShip poll conducted last year 78.3% of respondents said international cruiselines have so far failed to properly cater for Chinese holidaymakers’ tastes and needs.

Another bonus Zhang sees is the vast breadth of the HNA Group with its involvement in ocean, land and air transportation.

“We will use this advantage in cross-marketing the three sectors and enriching our service and portfolio.”

Demographically, with the Chinese getting ever richer, the market is getting naturally bigger, but also prices should become more competitive.

“Cruise tourism belongs to a relatively high-end market, but I think it is gradually becoming more common place,” Zhang says. “Once the competition intensifies, prices will come down, allowing more tourists to choose a cruise.”

With this expected boom there will be plenty more cruise stories on SinoShip News.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

HNA Tourism HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management was founded last year. Part of the HNA Group, whose other subsidiaries include Hainan Airlines and Grand China Logistics. It is the first company in mainland China to own a luxury cruiseship.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW OOCL Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) is Hong Kong’s largest shipping line. Tracing its roots to 1947, OOCL is now entering a new era, with Andy Tung installed as ceo last year, the third generation of the Tung family to steer the firm.

OOCL moved 5.22m teu last year, up 3.7% from 2011. Revenues grew 6.7% to $5.9bn. Alphaliner ranks OOCL as the 11th largest liner in the world.

SCARY PROSPECT "Lingering overcapacity will continue to haunt the industry well into 2013”

Andy Tung urges carriers to keep discipline Editor Sam Chambers catches up with the boss of OOCL

T

his February Andy Tung, the ceo of Hong Kong’s Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL), spoke to our new sister publication Maritime CEO (www.maritime-ceo.com).

In the interview he outlined the challenges facing the container industry in 2013.

The ceo of OOCL used the Maritime CEO platform to tell fellow owners to adjust deployment to meet customer demand without under-utilising capacity this year or else the brittle sector would be awash in more red ink.

Not that red ink is something OOCL has suffered from. Despite a tough final quarter OOCL managed revenues and liftings for 2012 that are likely to be the envy of most of their peers.

OOCL moved 5.22m teu last year, up 3.7% from 2011. Revenues grew 6.7% to $5.9bn.

Intra-Asia and Australasian trades proved to be the best performers accounting for 2.67m teu and $2.09bn in revenues. While others remained mired in red ink, OOCL continues to stay in positive territory.

“It is critical,” Tung said, “that apart from

the need for effective cost controlling measures on the individual carrier level, discipline in capacity deployment and the ability to hold on to sustainable freight rates will also be essential on the industry-wide level to help rebuild a more stable and healthier business environment for all.”

Last year Tung stepped up from chief operating officer to ceo at OOCL. Tung has served the group in various capacities, including as director of reefer trade between 1993 and 1998. He left the family firm for a while to pursue other interests, a period of time that saw him rise to become chief operating officer at Hong Kong Dragon Airlines. He re-joined the group in 2006 and was appointed OOCL’s coo in January 2009.

He is the eldest son of CH Tung, the former chairman of the group who became Hong Kong’s first leader after the territory was reunified with China in 1997.

Tung becomes the third generation to take the helm at Hong Kong’s largest shipping outfit, the line tracing its roots back to 1947 when legendary owner CY Tung kicked off a service from Shanghai to the US. The liner head concluded that “lingering overcapacity” would continue “to haunt the industry well into 2013”, and as a result many carriers “will anticipate huge challenges in adjusting their product structures and optimising slot utilisation”.

Some report the news, Maritime CEO makes the news Exclusive insights into what the top people in shipping and offshore are thinking The new global flagship from Asia Shipping Media www.maritime-ceo.com Sinoship SPRING 2013

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breakbulk ■ ■ ■

CLOSE TIES Africa is on course to be China’s number one trading partner

Focus on Africa Jason Jiang canvasses leading breakbulk players in China

F

or those involved in breakbulk and project shipping 2012 was unquestionably a tough year.

Nevertheless, massively increasing trade between China and Africa is providing solace.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has noted recently that Africa will surpass the European Union and the United States as China’s largest trading partner in the near future.

“Chinese companies are increasingly being encouraged to invest abroad and now it is not only the larger corporations such as Chinalco and ZTE, but also more and more middle sized companies,” comments Bo Drewsen, chairman of CLC Projects. CLC stands for China Logistics Club. The projects network was founded a year ago.

Africa is already a huge market for Chinese contractors especially in road, power plants, airports, railways and wind turbine plant constructions. By providing soft loans on favourable terms to African countries, China gets more easy access to the continent’s vast mineral wealth.

Infrastructure demands for Africa remain enormous, with Chinese contractors to the fore in tendering. For instance, the continent needs to spend over $52bn on 4,000 km of railways in order to exploit planned African iron ore projects, according to International Finance Corp. The IFC

estimates that up to $13.6bn needs to be spent in Guinea alone to develop two railways and a port.

South America is another growing market for Chinese businesses.

“This all means a big demand for project cargo shipping out of China to Africa and South America in particular,” says CLC’s Drewsen.

Shipowners are introducing bigger breakbulk tonnage to Africa to cater for this demand. One project alone requires some 1m freight tons for all the equipment and mining wagons, railway cars, sleepers, camps for housing for the big China Aluminum/Rio Tinto project at Simandou in Guinea. Recently some 600 railway wagons, in total five charter vessels with some 12,000 tons in total, were shipped from China to an iron ore project in Sierra Leone.

“China will continue to be the big dragon in 2013 when it comes to sourcing of machinery, steel, infrastructure equipment, not only by foreign companies but also by Chinese contractors,” Drewsen says.

Around the country Looking at the local scene Juergen Kuntz, managing director of BBC Chartering Shanghai, notes that smaller ports along the Yangtze river have been more active in canvassing project cargoes.

“Some of these ports encounter

congestion,” Kuntz says, “which shows their shortages in turnover capacities for breakbulk cargo, there’s still room for improvement on this end.”

“We see our breakbulk business in 2012 as being a little bit worse than the year before,” comments a spokesperson from Sino-Polish shipping joint venture Chipolbrok. “Higher fuel prices and operating costs as well as tougher market competition have brought some challenges to us.

However, demands from project cargo and machinery cargo are still strong, stimulated by increasing growing offshore projects and large-scale construction projects.”

The extreme competition in the market is something BBC’s Kuntz is well aware of.

“We expect the market to continue to be very competitive. It’s a buyer’s market, clearly price driven,” he says. “At the same time we see a lot of cargoes being recirculated as operators and carriers often fail to perform in this fast-paced dynamic.”

Meanwhile, a representative from Rickmers’ Dalian office tells SinoShip: “Despite the overall depressed shipping market, we do see some breakbulk development in the past year. The ongoing breakbulk berth expansion project in Dalian port will enhance the handling capacity and operations in the port. For the past year, we have seen a good trend in project cargoes and large scale machinery shipping to South Asia countries including India.”

Concluding, CLC’s Drewsen has some advice for local project firms. Chinese companies need to make a greater impact overseas, Drewsen urges.

“Chinese forwarders need to gain an international foothold,” Drewsen says.

“Chinese forwarders have been slow to realize this and that is a big weakness.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

CLC PROJECTS CLC Projects is a network founded a year ago which now has 84 members, who are generally small or mid-sized companies. CLC Projects nominates one member per province in China and one per country abroad only. The grouping is actively looking for more members across China. CLC stands for China Logistics Club.

Sinoship SPRING 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Exports prioritised as construction wavers at home China is producing too much construction equipment for domestic demand. Growing overseas markets will be vital

W

hat goes up must come down. China’s property sector finally hit a speedbump last year. The nation’s construction machinery scene had enjoyed a rollicking good decade prior to that. However, domestic demand slumped in 2012 and it has suddenly been hit by overcapacity, a familiar story to many other Chinese industries, not least shipbuilding.

Construction machinery had been a mainstay of breakbulk cargoes in China for a long time. According to the China Construction Machinery Association, capacity in the sector in China hit 400,000 units per year, exceeding the demand for the whole world. Total revenues of the 13 major companies in the industry dropped by more than 30% in 2012.

“Now is a critical turning point for the construction machinery industry in China,” says Wang Xiaohua, president of Guangxi Liugong Group, a major state-owned construction machinery manufacturer. Wang also reckons that the incredible growth rates of the past decade will not be seen again.

Compared to Wang, Sany Heavy Industry’s president Xiang Wenbo, is more optimistic about the market situation, he

China’s urban billion A new book by a good friend of SinoShip, Tom Miller, makes for startling reading, and provides hope for anyone in project shipping.

By 2030, China’s cities will be home to 1bn people, one in every eight people on earth, Beijing-based Miller writes in his January published China’s Urban Billion.

Over the past 30 years, China’s urban population expanded by 500m people, and is on track to swell by a further 300m by 2030.

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reckons the market downturn won’t last long and the market is expected to be back on track from the second quarter of 2013, and may grow by 10% in the whole year.

In order to deal with the market downturn, construction machinery manufacturers have been focusing more on the export market. Total export volumes for construction machinery from China hit $17.15bn for the first 11 months of 2012, a growth of 18.4% year-on-year. India, Southeast Asia, Russia and Latin America formed the largest regions for sales.

“The overcapacity in the industry is an indisputable fact, what we need to do is optimise our products and expand the export market,” says Li Hongbao, chief secretary of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association’s excavation machinery branch.

Sany has been one of the most active machinery exporters in China. Its export growth nearly doubled in 2012. It won a five-year franchise to supply port equipment for all South African ports last year.

Sany is also teaming up with China National Offshore Oil (CNOOC) to develop and manufacture marine engineering equipment needed for oil exploration.

China’s excavator market is dominated

“The current crop of leaders, led by the incoming premier Li Keqiang, are much more enthusiastically pro-urban than their predecessors,” notes Miller. “They believe that developing large, prosperous cities will foster greater domestic demand, especially household consumption. Li has promised to speed up urbanisation and reform China’s household registration system. To unleash the full economic potential of urbanisation, he argues, China must turn rural migrants into genuine urban citizens.”

by Japanese and Korean players with nearly 25% of excavators imported, mainly from Komatsu, Hitachi, Doosan and Hyundai.

Hitachi is currently building its largest manufacturing base in Hefei of Anhui province in China with an investment of RMB4bn.

The new manufacturing base and the existing one will together have an annual output capacity of 60,000 excavators upon completion in 2014.

Jiangsu has become one of the leading construction machinery export provinces in China with several leading manufacturers like XCMG, Caterpillar, Komatsu and Doosan.

Caterpillar is expanding its China-based excavator capacity by 400% and will boost production of hydraulic excavators by 80% in the coming years.

“We look at China as a very long-term market here, we want to be here in a bigger way, and of course we’re investing all the time for really what will be a 20- or 30-year run, Caterpillar’s exports from China to the US have more than doubled over the past seven years,” says Doug Oberhelman, ceo of Caterpillar.

Another Xuzhou based manufacturer XCMG’s RMB12.2bn expansion project went into operation in 2012. President Wang Min says XCMG will focus on large-tonnage and high technology products to be more competitive on the international market.

Shippers ■ ■ ■

New dawn for Chinese exports Sam Chambers assesses the nation’s trading numbers, noting new growth areas and changing product mixes

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ake no mistake about it; China’s export scene is extremely challenging this year. New markets and a changed product mix are essential to counter the slowdown in demand.

Former government minister and well respected China commerce guru Wei Jianguo, who now serves as vicechairman and secretary-general of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, warned this February: “I am concerned that China’s foreign trade outlook this year will be more challenging than in 2012.”

China’s foreign trade rose 6.2% yearon-year in 2012, missing its 10% target

and contrasting sharply with the 22.5% surge in 2011.

Exports grew 7.9% year-on-year in 2012, the slowest pace in more than a decade except 2009, in the wake of the outbreak of the global financial crisis.

Seeing low single digit port growth can be painful In 2012, exports were equivalent to about 25% of China’s GDP, based on official data.

Yao Jingyuan, a researcher at the Counselors’ Office of the State Council, suggests Chinese manufacturers need to change their output drastically.

“Amid rising costs at home and fierce competition from neighbouring countries with lower costs, we are now at an urgent moment to transform exports and take the downward pressure in export growth as the motivation for restructuring,” he says.

The good news can be found in the latest trade figures for January 2013, which point to a dramatic surge, although analysts caution that one month’s figures are too early to call as a genuine turnaround.

Sinoship SPRING 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

economist Hongbin Qu believes domestic demand is driving most of the manufacturing recovery and Economist Paul French looks that, crucially, “Despite the still at the altered manufacturing tepid external demand, it is the scene domestic-driven restocking process which is likely to add steam to China’s ongoing recovery in China is still manufacturing. the coming months.”

However, it is now increasingly One crucial thing to rememmanufacturing for itself rather ber in this period of steeply than others. A recent HSBC surrising costs in China’s manufacvey shows China’s manufacturturing sector (wages, land rents, ing activity grew in January at distribution, etc) is that this the fastest pace in two years. The upturn will naturally drive up report adds further evidence that already heavily rising oil prices the world’s second-biggest econhitting margins. Benchmark omy is coming out of its manufacoil prices for March turing downturn.

2013 are up nearly 50% Manufacturing for and with manufacturexport may still be the Structure of China’s production economy, 2012 ing wage rises running bulk of industry but Sector % of real GDP % growth y-o-y at upwards of 20% per production of goods for Agriculture 10 4.3 annum in some provthe domestic market is Industry 47 10.3 inces this is squeezing the growing as a percentage.

Services 43 9.4 manufacturers just as they Commodities to support recover capacity.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics production, and the energy

Squeezed margins

Chinese exports rose 25% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since April 2011 and up from 14.1% in December.

Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura, noted: “This strong export number cannot be fully explained by the Chinese New Year effect alone. This data suggests that external and domestic demand are both strong, which supports our view that the economy is on track for a cyclical recovery in the first half.”

New trade push Transport Trackers founder Charles De Trenck has written about Beijing’s decision to push for more free trade zones in the country.

“China needs to handle more trade,” De Trenck noted. “Now that export growth has slowed - after 15-20 years of high growth, China is turning to parts of the supply chain where historically it has had less control.”

He said that it was not just about Shanghai announcing a new trade zone expansion push.

We are now at an urgent moment to transform exports 28

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required to produce, had a good 2012 – for instance, production of steel (+11.7 y-o-y), non-ferrous metals (+14% y-o-y) and cement (+11.5% y-o-y) were all strong.

Food production is becoming a more key sector of overall production. China is exporting food and beverage products but also aiming to produce more for the domestic market both to tame inf lation and ensure food security for the urban population.

But the majority is continuing activity from previous orders rather a resurgence of new orders from the still economically beleaguered key western markets. HSBC’s China chief

“It is about a long term process,” he maintained, “where Shanghai and Shenzhen create new ‘mini-HKs’ on their way to getting more respect as full service trade centres.”

The Shanghai free trade zone push will offer zero tariffs on imports into the free port of Shanghai.

48.6

Percentage increase year-onyear in Chinese exports to Southeast Asia in January “Ultimately it is a logical extension of all the free trade zone alphabet soup areas already in the Shanghai region and across China,” De Trenck maintained, adding: “But, even without a fully convertible RMB and without an open capital account, Shanghai is seeking to take back from Hong Kong a little more of what it had before 1949 – status as Asia’s number 1 trade and finance centre.”

China used to grow at a 15+% rate on its containerised trade. “This recently was about halved, and this has no doubt led to some hard thinking by leaders, even if

everyone knew trade was going to slow.

Actually seeing low single digit port growth can be painful,” the well-respected Hong Kong-based analyst wrote in a report in January.

SinoShip’s economist, Paul French, observes: “Taking this enforced breather in the last hectic 30 years to smooth the chain is a good idea and will ensure China both better capitalises on domestic market growth and is better positioned for any future exports bounce back.”

With the economies of the EU and the US still patchy at best Beijing’s call last year for exporters to shift their attention to developing and emerging markets appears to be having an effect.

According to customs figures, China’s exports to the EU last year dropped by 6.2% from a year earlier. However, exports to Southeast Asia increased by 20.1%, to Russia by 13.2%, and to South Africa by 14.7%, way ahead of overall growth during the period. This pattern seems to have only accelerated in January this year with exports to Southeast Asia, for instance, leaping an astonishing 48.6% versus January 2012, worth $20.1bn. Both China’s product mix and its overseas markets are clearly in flux, shippers and shipping lines alike are having to heed these potentially seismic shifts.

Shippers ■ ■ ■

Online retail sales leap

Engen Tham catches up with the co-founder of one of the leading e-commerce companies in China

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peaking at the 2nd Asian Logistics and Maritime Conference in Hong Kong last November Scott Price, president and ceo of Walmart Asia, focused on e-commerce in China. According to China Internet Watch, the nation is likely to spend $177bn in online retail this year, a figure that is predicted to hit $458bn by 2016, surpassing current leader, the US (see graph).

Logistics, not technology, remain the biggest hurdle for e-commerce in China, Price said. A lack of efficient and reliable last-mile delivery was the biggest problem facing the fastest growing e-commerce market in the world.

Last October, Walmart increased its stake in Yihaodian, a fast-growing e-commerce business in China, to 51%.

Yihaodian, winner of Deloitte’s 2012 Technology Fast 500 — an accolade awarded to the fastest growing global company — grew by an astounding rate of 19,218% from 2009 through 2012. The online Chinese retailer was founded in 2008 with two employees and now has more than 6,000.

Speaking to SinoShip Gang Yu, ceo and co-founder of Yihaodian, says his company is now doing a lot of sourcing by leveraging Walmart’s global sourcing capability.

DOT BOOM Gang Yu, ceo and co-founder of Yihaodian

Walmart may lead in some instances, but Yihaodian already has in place a successful logistics system.

“70% of our logistics is done internally,” Yu says. “We have an expert logistics team of over 90 who have helped us to reduce our costs by more than 30%.”

US & Chinese e-commerce sales ($bn) 500 400 300 200 100 0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Sources: China Internet Watch, Internet Retailer

The company also partners with 30 third-party logistics firms.

“We enter a city through our own logistics only when the density of orders

reaches a certain threshold for economic reasons,” Yu says.

The company will be expanding its overseas imports in the future.

“We’re the first in e-commerce to have a license for direct imports. So we imported a few containers of food and drinks — cookies, cereals and wine — we are going to place many more orders for containers again and we will definitely increase our volume of import goods,” Yu says.

There’s still plenty to do to improve supply chains, the e-commerce boss says.

“The peaks and troughs in sales are difficult,” says Yu. “For e-commerce, sales are not as smooth as in traditional retail.”

Yu cites Bachelor’s Day, which takes place every year on November 11, and is by some margin the largest event in the e-commerce calendar.

“Suddenly our orders rose by 10 times the normal level in a couple of days,” he recounts. “It’s definitely hard to digest, we can’t staff our people or have our systems all ready for 10 times the orders, that would be too much of a waste. So that’s challenging,” Yu admits.

Nevertheless, with all projections pointing to a more than doubling of online sales in the coming couple of years, staffing will have to increase.

Li & Fung on the changing nature of Chinese exports China’s exports are changing, both in nature and destination. Gordon Lam, vice president of Li & Fung, the major Hong Kong-based international sourcing and supply giant, tells SinoShip that emerging markets will be the main developing areas for brands and retailers, as demand has weakened from the US and the EU. “Export companies in China should pay more attention on the sourcing demand from emerging markets like Brazil,” Lam says.

Although China’s cost advantage is challenged by other Asian countries

including Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh, local companies have more export experience to keep their competitiveness, Lam says, and remain the major sourcing market in the world.

“We have been changing fast according to the clients’ higher requirement on sourcing,” Lam reveals.

Previously trading companies were just responsible for sourcing the goods, but now they need to be responsible for more value-added sourcing services including product design, logistics and quality control.

Currently 70% of Li & Fung’s sourcing is clothing and 30% are groceries and fast consumer goods.

Export companies in China should pay more attention on the sourcing demand from emerging markets like Brazil Sinoship SPRING 2013

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Twin problems China’s sprawling repair sector is fragmented and too focused on low end tonnage, argues Katherine Si

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aritime’s malaise in the People’s Republic is not confined to shipping and shipbuilding. Far from it. Spare a thought for the nation’s beleaguered ship repair industry.

On the face of it repair sounds like an industry that should be stable in revenue terms. With an estimated global fleet of 48,000 vessels equivalent to 1.6bn dwt, ship repair is less cyclical than the newbuilding market. The five-year mandatory drydocking interval creates a potential market of 9,000 ships or 300m dwt per year.

However, extraordinary competition, both at home and abroad, combined with owners’ desires to cut costs wherever possible have plunged the local repair scene into what one executive describes as “deep midwinter”.

Such competition brings bargains for discerning owners.

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“Whereas China has an advantageous supply of labour resources in terms of international competition,” comments Paul Rogers, commercial director, Northeast Asia for Norway’s Wilhelmsen Ships Service, “domestically the supply of labour is more evenly balanced, with shipyards competing for a finite number of customers, leading to cost pressures and squeezed profits - good news for the savvy owner who can shop around.”

Competition brings bargains for discerning owners Available statistics show that for the first nine months of 2012 repair deals in China amounted to RMB8.7bn, a drop of

17% year-on-year. A straw poll among top names in the industry shows that most have failed to hit their annual financial targets, with results worse than in 2011.

When SinoShip conducted a similar survey a year ago, the majority of respondents were already in the red.

Bleak midwinter More than 80% of the major Chinese ship repair companies contacted by SinoShip this year are not optimistic on prospects in the coming two to three years.

Lin Libin, deputy general manager of China Shipping Industry (Pudong), describes the situation as “bleak”.

Zhoushan IMC-Yongyue Shipyard & Engineering, an experienced joint venture shipbuilding and repair company, and among the ten largest repairers in the nation with the largest drydock in the Zhoushan archipelago, is suffering like

Ship Repair ■ ■ ■

China’s yards need to get to grips with offshore everyone else. Wang Yuanhai, an official from the company, says, “The output value has sharply declined not just at our yard, but across the whole ship repair industry.”

Wang reckons repair prices in China are now the lowest among major Asian ship repair counties, even lower than Thailand and Vietnam.

“We are repairing ships at cost price and we just keep the balance,” he relates.

Like its shipbuilding brethren, Wang reckons repairers need to target more expensive ships, but to do this they will need to invest in better technology.

Wang’s thoughts are in tune with the 12th five year plan which calls for China’s repairers to chase high value ships, offshore vessels and use more green technology.

Shanghai Shipyard repaired 85 ships last year, a similar number to 2011, and yet profits have slid considerably, leading senior management to etch out a plan to capture more high value ships.

Zhan Shuming, chief engineer of Cosco Shipyard, sees the correlation between the depressed freight rate environment and the bleak times for repairers. Cosco Shipyard runs a number of repair facilities across the country. Red ink-stained owners are cutting back on detailed repairs, Zhan says, while many older tankers are heading straight for scrapping rather than a resuscitating repair.

Offshore salvation Nevertheless, Wang Yuhang, president of the ship repair branch of the nation’s shipyard association, believes there are “opportunities hidden in the winter”.

There is an increasing focus from regulators and class on safety and the environment in shipping, he says, something that is only going to get ever more prescriptive.

This will provide plenty of repair work in the coming years, Wang thinks.

Similarly, offshore is clearly a huge

82

Percentage of Chinese repair yards in the red according to our survey

growth market and one China’s yards need to get to grips with.

Quite so, agrees the management at China Shipping Industry (Pudong).

“Currently, we are researching and developing the offshore market,” a marketing official from the Shanghai yard says. “We wish to enter into it during this depressed environment for shipping.”

So too does the giant Youlian shipyard in Shekou, which by volume is China’s busiest.

The yard has completed the repair and conversion of the deepwater drilling platform Nanhai 8 for China Offshore Services, Ltd (COSL). Nanhai 8 was one of six offshore platforms Youlian completed last year, catapulting it to the top of the offshore field, and allowing it to cut back on lower earners such as bulk carriers. Youlian’s scale allowed it to work on an average of 17 to 18 ships per day last year.

“I’m sure lots of ship repair yards are keen to enter into the offshore market, but it is a sector that also needs high investment and technology,” a source at Youlian says.

Inevitable consolidation Chinese shipyards will need to change more than just their business models to survive, argues Wilhelmsen’s Rogers. “They will also have to go through a further consolidation process, with the surviving yards marketing themselves harder to foreign customers,” he says.

Consolidation is needed to eliminate the low quality operators and improve the industry’s image overall, he says. “It will be

interesting to see how quickly the shipyards make the necessary changes to give owners the confidence to repair increased volumes of increasingly complex tonnage,” Rogers muses.

With overseas business accounting for 70% of current revenues with the remainder sourced from the less attractive domestic market, it will be, what Rogers describes in no uncertain times, a “hard fight”.

Like the far more reported Chinese shipbuilding industry, the repair sector will look very different come 2015.

NEED TO KNOW

Huadong Shipyard NEED TO KNOW Opened in June last year Fujian Huadong Shipyard is one of the largest in the world located in the natural deepwater bay of Luoyuan. Capable of repairing 200 vessels a year from 20,000 dwt to 300,000 dwt. Owned

by Fujian Huarong Marine Shipping Group, it is spread over 800,000 sq m and three drydocks ranging in size from 100,000 to 400,000 dwt, one 50,000 dwt slipway and seven outfitting berths. Has already handled giant 13,600 teu ships, and is strongly marketing itself to nearby Taiwan owners.

Second phase development underway with a focus on offshore.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

An enduring allure The city continues to surge ahead of the rest of the country when it comes to foreign direct investment. Engen Tham explains why China’s capacity to attract foreign investment was called into question in January, as official figures revealed that global capital injected into the world’s second largest economy had shrivelled 3.7% in 2012.

The blame game ensued, as commentators took to task the country’s rising costs and yuan appreciation to identify a culprit.

Shanghai, however, in defiance of the overarching trend, reported a 20.5% surge in foreign direct investment last year.

Despite the city’s rising costs and yuan inflation, business friendly policies implemented by a bullish municipal government continue to entice companies from all over the world.

When shipping players enter the Chinese market, Beijing and Shanghai are often in the running as cities within which to set up headquarters. Maritime consultants Drewry feel that Shanghai has the edge where overseas commercial shipping activity is concerned.

“Beijing hosts a lot of government interaction, so 32

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for access to big state-owned shipping companies, being there is important, which is why a lot of brokers have their main offices there. But for us, as a consultancy, Beijing only gives you part of the story, our client base consists mostly of foreign shipping firms who are more concentrated in Shanghai, so that’s the reason we chose Shanghai,” says Drewry’s chief China rep, Tina Liu. And many foreign companies agree. New entrants to the Shanghai logistics hub include FedEx Express, who inked a $100m deal with Shanghai airport in October last year to construct a documents and packages processing centre to open in 2017.

The Baltic and International Maritime Council, otherwise known as BIMCO, an international shipping association representing shipowners, is opening its first China office in Shanghai in February. The association decided on Shanghai as its first China port of call due to its vast shipping credentials.

“We chose Shanghai because

we have very close ties with Shanghai Maritime University.

We see the initiatives that have been taken to build Shanghai into a maritime centre and Shanghai is ranked as the largest port in the world in terms of the cargo throughput and last but not least, the Shanghai government has offered us tremendous support, which also influenced us to open our office here,” says Wei Zhuang, the general manager of BIMCO’s Shanghai Centre.

As well as words of welcome, the Shanghai government dangles many carrots. Drewry opened up its first China office in Shanghai’s Hongkou district, where the municipal government is trying to build up a shipping hub. “We set up in Hongkou because our corporate tax there is lower than elsewhere and our clients are concentrated in other districts surrounding that area,” says Drewry’s Liu. The city also introduced a slew of other measures last year to entice foreign capital.

One such initiative was the

Shanghai Investment Promotion Partnership, set up last May to spur investment between mainland and foreign companies. The partnership now has 26 local partners and 73 foreign companies.

Despite the city’s success so far, it is not resting on its laurels. A pilot free trade zone – an area within which goods may move in and out without customs supervision – is being slated to open in 2013. The scheme is currently subject to government approval, but once opened will be the first of its kind in mainland China and has been touted by analysts surveyed by People’s Daily as an important driver of reform in the country in the next decade.

“Ultimately,” says Transport Trackers founder Charles De Trenck, “it is a logical extension of all the free trade zone alphabet soup areas already in the Shanghai region and across China. But, even without a fully convertible RMB and without an open capital account, Shanghai is seeking to take back from Hong Kong a little more of what it had before 1949 – status as Asia’s number 1 trade and finance centre.”

Shanghai continues to attract investors looking for a warm welcome and a return on their investment.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Economic integration Joshua Samuel Brown reports on a series of measures designed to foster ever greater investment across the Taiwan Strait At its narrowest point the Taiwan Strait is just 130 km wide. Arguably in 2013 the links across this once acrimonious divide have not been closer for more than 60 years. Economically China and Taiwan are more joined at the hip than ever before.

Taiwanese banks have just started to allow their customers to make deposits, obtain loans, and buy bonds denominated in China’s tightly controlled renminbi.

Taipei is looking at leveraging Taiwan’s $150bn annual trade with the mainland as a platform to help transform the island into an offshore trading centre for the yuan, similar to Hong Kong.

Similar currency regulations have also gone into effect in China.

Furthermore, the mainland is opening its securities and futures markets to Taiwan investors through the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program.

China’s securities regulator is opening the A-share market for Taiwan institutional investors holding offshore renminbi deposits.

The investment quota for renminbi qualified institutional investors, or RQFIIs, has been set at RMB100bn.

The pilot RQFII program is under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, signed between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to reduce tariffs and

COSCO IN KAOHSIUNG China’s big state-run shipping lines are investing in Taiwan’s top port commercial barriers as well as tighten financial relationships.

Taiwan is also planning to ease the requirements for mainland companies issuing initial public offerings on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

The move has also been smoothed by allowing last year two of China’s top banking groups, the Bank of Communications and Bank of China, to set up branches across the island.

Shipping sales When it comes to Chinese investments into Taiwan, none has been bigger than on the shipping front. In December China Merchants Holdings (International) along with Cosco Pacific and China Shipping Terminal Development formed a

When it comes to Chinese investments into Taiwan, none has been bigger than on the shipping front

tripartite jv in Hong Kong and in a landmark investment bought a 30% stake costing $135m in Yang Ming’s Kao Ming Container Terminal in Kaohsiung.

This is a major development in the ongoing thawing of crossstrait ties and one that has been telegraphed for a couple of years. Each party of the tripartite jv will hold a 10% effective stake in Kao Ming Terminal.

The shareholder structure of Kao Ming Terminal now reads Yang Ming with 60%, the tripartite jv on 30% and Ports America Group with 10%. Four 100,000 dwt container berths are planned for the Kao Ming Container Terminal. Upon completion, the annual capacity of the terminal should hit 2.8m teu.

The deal is both the largest investment in Taiwan by mainland Chinese firms, and the first mainland Chinese investment in a local infrastructure project.

Kaohsiung handled 9.78m teu in 2012, an increase of 1.5% from the previous year.

Also with an eye on growing Chinese holidaymakers Kaohsiung’s cruise terminal is undergoing a major upgrade.

Both Keelung and Kaohsiung’s cruise facilities are being renovated to the tune of $360m as the number of cruise visitors to Taiwan leaps, especially from the mainland.

In a further bid to lure mainland Chinese cruise customers, Taiwan started on January 1 to offer double-entry permits to Chinese tourists to encourage them to take cruises in and out of the island.

The double-entry permit will allow the tourists to arrive in the country, either by plane or on a cruiseship, and then enter Taiwan again exclusively on a cruiseship that leaves and then returns to Taiwan.

More than 2.3m of the 7m visitors to Taiwan last year were from China, according to Tourism Bureau statistics. The aim is to have 10m visitors by 2016.

The gap across the strait continues to narrow.

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Clearing the air Alfred Romann on the local government’s bid to enforce Asia’s first emissions control area New legislation requiring ships in Hong Kong to switch to low sulphur fuel while berthing could soon be debated and, likely, enacted.

Following the annual policy speech by Hong Kong’s chief executive this January, the government appears committed to driving forward legislation that would create a more even playing field for all ships berthing in Hong Kong.

In the policy speech on January 16, in which the chief

pollution. But ships got some attention too.

“We are also considering bringing in new legislation to enforce the requirement of fuel switching at berth,” said Leung.

The government plans to introduce a law to the Legislative Council (LegCo) in the next legislative session.

Leung also said Hong Kong is working with the Guangdong provincial government to explore “the feasibility of requiring ocean-going vessels

Shipowners have said they would like to see actual regulations to create a level playing field executive outlined the government’s road map for the year, Hong Kong’s newly elected boss CY Leung announced a series of measures to curb pollution.

The focus of the government’s efforts in this area is on vehicle emissions, mostly the public transport network that is seen as a source of much roadside

to switch to low sulphur diesel while berthing in Pearl River Delta ports”.

A mandatory switch would build on a voluntary effort by 18 carriers currently in force.

A group of containerlines voluntarily singed up to the Fair Winds Charter, which required them to switch to

cleaner fuel when berthing in Hong Kong. The charter was drawn up by the Hong Kong Liner Shipping Association and kicked off in January 2011.

It has since been renewed in the past few weeks.

Shipowners have said they would like to see actual regulations to create a level playing field. Liners that have not signed up to the charter can dock in Hong Kong while still powered by high sulphur bunker oil instead of more expensive 0.5% sulphur diesel, which gives them a cost advantage.

“This is the only voluntary scheme in the world in which the industry pays for its own cost of fuel switching,” said Christine Loh Kung-wai, Under Secretary for the Environment of the Hong Kong SAR speaking in Hong Kong recently. “These people are doing it, essentially, at their own cost.”

“One of the most important things that we are doing is mandating fuel switching at berth,” said Loh. “Hopefully we can pass the legislation relatively soon.”

If it introduces some kind of legislation over the next few months, a move Loh described as “quite aggressive”, Hong Kong would be the first port in the region to do so.

What’s more, it could be part of a regional push.

Both in the policy speech and elsewhere, the Hong Kong government has outlined a plan to introduce mandatory emission controls for ships as part of a wider emissions control area (ECA) with other territories in the Pearl River Delta.

Other ECAs are already being enforced in California and the Baltic region.

Expanding this policy to the whole Pearl River Delta “would be good for the people of the whole region,” said Loh. “The vision is a low emission area for the whole water of the region.”

The Hong Kong Shipowners Association tells SinoShip that it has long pushed for the formation of the ECA and is aiming for both Beijing and Guangdong province to get involved.

Another related initiative that Leung outlined would be the provision of onshore power for cruiseships that berth at the new Kai Tak Cruise Terminal.

The first berth will start operations this June.

According to Loh, the government waited until now to introduce the measure because international standards for onshore power facilities were not yet in place.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Is India set for its own Great Leap?

Swapping his normal surroundings in China’s financial metropolis for India’s equivalent, Paul French identifies what – if anything – Asia’s two most populous nations have in common Your reviewer spent this Christmas on an extended trip to India; largely Mumbai to be precise. As a 20-year resident of China, mostly in Shanghai, it’s impossible not to feel the urge to draw comparisons and parallels between the two great populous Asian nations.

However, it should be resisted.

A few years ago, during the ‘Chindia’ craze many tried and all failed. Not one of the India/ China, Elephant/Dragon books that appeared really taught us anything except that both countries are large, have a lot of people and plenty of potential.

That’s the trouble with emerging markets — all that really unites them is their emergence. Beyond that, China and India, along with Brazil, Russia and any other candidates you care to include (the current list includes Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria and others) are all vastly different places 36

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with significantly different histories, cultures, political and economic systems and growth trajectories.

has certainly been China. This is not necessarily true within India though - a host of local Indian publishers produce

That’s the trouble with emerging markets — all that really unites them is their emergence It is also impossible for anyone to know any two countries as immense and different as China and India equally. Every writer knows one better than the other and compares the one, inevitably, through the lens of the other. Better then to just read more books about each country/market rather than hoping to halve your ‘to read’ list by only books with ‘Chindia’ in the title.

India has been less well served by international publishers, who’s major output focus

reams of books on the strength/ weakness/success/failure of the country to an avid audience, while local writers (often in English), such as notably Chetan Bhagat, sell widely as the nation’s pulse-takers exploring themes of middle class creation, internationalism and the clash of the traditional and the new. Probably best is Bhagat’s 2011 novel Revolution 2020 which tells the story of India’s new entrepreneurial middle class superbly, and with not a little wit.

Most recent, and perhaps most interesting, is Gurcharan Das’s India Grows at Night.

Das reviews the usual litany of complaints domestic and foreign businessmen have about India (something he also outlined concisely in his 2000 book India Unbound, which is still worth reading), the stultifying bureaucracy of the ‘licence Raj’, meddlesome local governments, corruption and poverty. These complainers will be happy to hear that Das believes things are changing and that New Delhi has retreated from trying to micromanage the new economy and entrepreneurialism. Whether this is by design or incompetence is not clear, but Das is probably right that the success of India’s tech sector in the last decade is partly down to the fact that Delhi never got round to setting up a Ministry for IT. That China has so closely regulated its IT and internet sector is partly why only behemoths like Sina and Baidu thrive and only then as long as they toe the government’s line (and, yes, despite earlier comments I’m afraid I gave in and did a China-India comparison - it’s just so hard to resist!).

This belief, importantly

by Indians themselves rather than outsiders or foreign India watchers, that change is afoot is a growing theme. Sumit Majumdar’s India’s Late, Late Industrial Revolution echoes many of the same themes about the loosening of the ‘licence Raj’ as Das. If anything Majumdar is even more bullish than Das believing that soon, freed of stultifying bureaucracy and heavy-handed government, India can replicate the success of China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. A nice idea, though perhaps well travelled readers in Asia will ask just which of those four possible economic futures happened in a country with a liberal hands-off, non-interventionist government, free of bureaucracy?

OPINION ■ ■ ■

RARE SUPPLY A simulator needs a staff of good teachers, and these are not as common as you might think

Why seafarer training is a waste of money In one of the more controversial columns to grace these pages, Andrew Craig-Bennett takes current crewing techniques to task Training is like motherhood and apple pie. Everybody is in favour of training.

Nobody is in favour of paying for it.

I am going to suggest that most training expenditure, in almost all shipping companies, is wasted anyway.

It is wasted because, first, very few people are equipped to evaluate the quality of the training that the individuals in their sea staff are getting, and secondly, very few people take the trouble to find out what training is actually needed.

Think of training as rather like cylinder oil. If you are not paying for it, or if indeed you are making a turn on the provision of it, you want a lot of it, because life is safer that way.

If, on the other hand, you are paying for it, then the sensible approach is to find out, carefully, just how much is needed and where it is needed, and adjust the taps accordingly. But hardly anyone does this.

What actually happens is that people whose knowledge of education is very slight are persuaded, often by reading of some new regulation, that their colleagues at sea need to ‘go on a course’ or to complete a computer based training (CBT) pro-

of having a dedicated training establishment ‘in house’. These days, that ‘virility symbol’ of a training establishment, the full mission bridge simulator, is relatively cheap to buy, so many companies have bought one.

What they are not, is cheap to

Don’t use company training centres; use independent third party training centres that keep up with best practice grame; they select a course or a CBT, very often for all the wrong reasons, and send grown men on it expecting them to all be bright eyed, bushy tailed, model students all gratefully lapping up the pearls of wisdom being handed down to them, when they would sooner be at home with their families or watching movies in their cabins.

An awful lot of shipowners, and almost all shipmanagers, have fallen into the trap

run. Beside regular upgrades and hardware maintenance and updating, a simulator needs a staff of good teachers, and these are not as common as you might think.

A good master or chief engineer does not automatically make a good trainer. It takes at least a year to make a schoolteacher out of a university graduate; why should the shipping industry assume that men can simply be given a cushy shore

job as a reward for keeping their superintendents happy and be able to convey their knowledge to others efficiently?

Worse, company training centres are very likely indeed to perpetuate a company culture, and not all aspects of any company’s culture are good.

The bad gets handed on to the next generation along with the good. A well-known cruiseship company puts all its officers through a single training centre; when one of its ships went aground, recently, it did so because of weak maritime crew resource management (MCRM) and the use of visual navigation methods rather than the use of a radar parallel index. This was by no means the first time that these particular faults have caused a casualty in that company’s large fleet – they have been recurring for 20 years and more, to my knowledge – this just happened to be the most spectacular case of a repeated weakness – which the company’s own system had perpetuated.

Don’t use company training centres; use independent third party training centres that keep up with best practice – that way, your people will learn what best practice is, not what the old lags in your office think it is.

To continue with our cylinder oil analogy (and we really should be spending as much on training as we do on cylinder oil!) we need to know where training is needed and what training is needed. As things are, at least half of a company’s training spend is wasted, either because the man being trained already knows much of what he is being taught, or because he is incapable of absorbing what he is being told.

There is an answer to this; it is called competence assurance. Other industries use it. We should. Now would be a good time to start. If your fleet personnel department cannot tell you want it is, fire them, and get people who can.

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

In the slipstream of China’s urbanisation Ships will be increasingly employed in feeding not only the new hardware of China’s infrastructure, but also feeding the people who live there, points out Max Hong The Spring Festival in China aka Chinese New Year has just taken place. This year is the year of the snake. In previous generations, this holiday was of little significance to the western mainstream.

Fast forward to the present tense, China is the mainstream and this celebration of the Lunar New Year impacts the wealth and trade of nations globally.

Boardrooms and trading floors, cargo fixers and rate setters, brokers of all stripes are obliged to watch as their screens show segment after segment flatlining while the key activity driver, China, pushes the pause button and takes a holiday.

China, unto which so much of global shipping is now beholden, takes a well deserved few weeks worth of holiday at this time of year and the world of shipping has to wait for its return before activity picks up again. What will the year of the snake bring to the maritime community?

The much-feared hard landing of China’s economy seems to have been averted. Dire warnings of a collapse in demand, under utilised factories, waves of unemployment now seem to be tempered by early 2013 statistics that orders are regaining and the transition to a consumer society is well on track.

So it looks like the soft landing has been achieved.

The good news, however, does not extend to the shipbuilders of China where the rate of ordering has collapsed.

Hundreds of shipyards that were born in the boom are now gasping their last. They will not be missed by the state-owned yards, which are struggling also but they know that at the end of 38

www.sinoshipnews.com

FAST FORWARD By 2030, China’s cities will be home to 1bn people, one in every eight people on Earth

the day the state will make sure they are not too idle.

The year of the snake will see the arrival of a new executive team in Beijing who will be at the helm of China Inc for the next decade. Their mission is to keep the brand alive and moving forward. This will be achieved through growth and stability.

Failure is not an option.

For the state-owned shipyards, the impact is clear and

can already be seen in the orders from state-owned shipping companies. The banks will play their part as has already been well telegraphed by Exim Bank’s recently announced $3bn increase in lending.

Of course, blue chip foreign names will also enjoy Exim support, but none of this will create a shipbuilding boom and prices can be expected to slide sideways as shipyard capacity far

2014 and 2015 are already inspiring confidence in those feeling fit enough to think they may live to see it

exceeds demand, with related costs making it structurally almost impossible to sink lower.

Wages are going up in every sector. Likewise, the price of energy is increasing. Nonetheless, the drive to urbanise another 500m people from low density peasants into high density urbanites is still the core development theme for ‘Team China’.

Development will continue and a surplus of roads, apartment blocks, shopping centres, office towers and high tech factories will be built. The pace will be slower than what powered the Lance Armstrong inspired intensity of the previous boom years, but the demand will keep ships of all nations employed, albeit at lower rates until the market crosses the magic convergence with the line of supply contraction crossing over the continuing upward trend of the demand line. 2013 overcapacity will mean more low rates, but 2014 and 2015 are already inspiring confidence in those feeling fit enough to think they may live to see it.

By 2030, China’s cities will be home to 1bn people, one in every eight people on earth.

This permanent level of rising demand is now being engineered into China requirements by the very urbanisation the government’s growth is based on.

Almost all of the land being developed for these new or enlarged cities has up until now has been agricultural, it is the most rare, valuable and fertile land and is a very limited commodity in this country, which is for the most part mountain or desert.

Ships will be increasingly employed in feeding not only the new hardware of China’s infrastructure but also feeding the people who live there.

International shipping needs China, that is already well known, but the fact that China needs the rest of the world even more is a reality that is only recently dawning on all the stakeholders.

We are all in the mainstream now.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

‘Reputations are built on skills acquired and deeds done in bad markets’ Bei Hong believes those that put it in the long hours in theYear of the Water Snake will prosper when things pick up Will the Year of the Snake see our beloved and beleaguered industry slither through another dire year, as expected, or will it have a vicious bite to it? Only time will tell, but hunkering down for what looks like another tough twelve months seems to be the general consensus, at least for shipping. Stock markets in the West kicking off 2013 with record gains suggest that the disconnect between shipping and the rest of the world looks set to continue.

I’ve been knocking about the shipping business long enough to have seen a few recessions, and will hopefully survive this one. Much tougher it is for our recent recruits who have just arrived in the game, or perhaps worse still, came in a few years ago and immediately rode the wave of easy money all the way to their local Porsche dealer.

There will certainly be a few casualties across the industry this year, although unlike the mid-’80s when recently deregulated banks were boosting their investment banking divisions, there is unlikely to be an exodus of people from shipping exchanges to stock exchanges.

What there will also be is a chance for a new generation to shine and put down their credentials as the highly capable brokers, lawyers, shipmanagers and other service providers of the future.

First out the door this year will probably be a few veterans who hung around for one last

roll of the dice. Now, with trips to Tokyo for a round of golf supplanted by trying to re-fix a client’s ship after the original lucrative charter was defaulted on, they may well elect to finally bow out. Whilst a few

guarantee they are finding the going tough. Whatever line of work you are in, if you can intelligently help a shipowner do slightly better than the meagre returns they are currently getting, you will not

So how do you make your mark in a recession? Simple: hard work and focus on the customer shipping services companies adhere to the ‘last in, first out’ policy, most sensible businesses who are worth working for realize that it’s their aspiring youth that is their future.

So how do you make your mark in a recession? Simple: hard work and focus on the customer. If you rely on shipowners for your business in any shape or form, you can

just be appreciated, but you will be remembered when times get better. Any clown could have fixed long period to slightly dubious but high paying charterers in the boom times, but keeping a ship moving with minimum ballast and waiting time now requires sheer hard work for not much reward. Making sure you deal with people who ensure that

everyone gets paid on time will sharpen your risk management skills, which in many cases seemed to get blunted in those faraway pre-recession days.

Reputations are built on skills acquired and deeds done in bad markets.

Just as shipowners who prudently built a war chest of cash now see an opportunity to pick over the carcass of misplaced optimism and the ‘paradigm shift’ that never happened, so these times are an opportunity to separate the good from the simply mediocre for those of us who are still humble employees. And with values at a fraction of what they were, keep an eye open for the new players who emerge from a slump, capitalising on their experience .

The Bei Hong Steam Navigation Company does have a certain ring to it.

Sinoship SPRING 2013

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

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www.Sinoshipnews.com

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■

NEARLY DONE Paint is applied to a suezmax newbuild in Jiangsu 一艘在江苏建造的苏伊士型油轮新船正在上油漆

© André Eichman Sinoship SPRING 2013

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Dual language 12 correspondents across six cities Distributed to 300 Chinese shipbuilders

Unique access, exclusive intelligence Guaranteed circulation to all China, HK and Taiwan owners At all the top events both in China and worldwide

“SinoShip gives me insights into my industry that I cannot get anywhere else” –Yang Xianxiang, ceo, SITC International Holdings

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Have you got your Chinese marketing in place for 2013?

卡车运输整合 独家修船资料 2013年春季刊

om 日 在 s.c 每 更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

聚焦自升式钻井平台

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华光 赵式明接任掌门

项目货主关注非洲 海娜号首航：海航邮 轮总裁致语 河北远洋高彦明 —中国拆船拥护者 电子商务：中国网上 零售业如何引领世界 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长 不断进取，积极应对 随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。 日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球 知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需 要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我 们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 5 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 12 金融 13 商品 14 物流 15 邮轮

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 16 张浩 17 赵式明 18 高彦明 19 董立均

目前有312座自升式钻井平台— 即全球483座自升式钻井平台中的 65%的服役年限均已超过25年 —John Fredriksen，Seadrill

■ ■ ■ 枢纽

28 上海

29 台北 31 香港

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—张浩，海航旅业邮轮游艇管理有限公司

2013年是决定性的一年。许 多人会挺不过去 —赵式明，华光海运

17

船舶数量严重过剩，结果导致 供需严重失衡

18

—高彦明，河北远洋

对运力严加控制至关重要 —董立均，东方海外

■ ■ ■ 评论 32 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见

33 Andrew Craig-Bennett 34 Max Hong

35 Bei Hong

11

我们致力于打造卓越的中国邮 轮品牌

■ ■ ■ 专题 21 散杂货运输 23 货主 26 修船

■■■

21

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中国运输企业需要在国际市场 站稳脚跟。他们长期缺乏对这个 问题的认识，而这正是最薄弱的 环节 —Bo Drewsen，CLC Projects Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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编者语

■■■

中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台 www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Engen Tham Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei Joshua Samuel Brown

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao, 封面: Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公 室，邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 中国销售主管 Tom Wu

sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下 载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 20 Cecil Street, #14-01 Equity Plaza, Singapore 049705。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司

整合将是卡车运输 业的大势所趋 在本期物流专题中，记者Jason Jiang介绍 了中国卡车运输业严重分散化的现状（第 14页）。这篇文章非常值得一读，尤其是 Jason为这个行业梳理出了令人难以置信的 统计数字。 很明显，95%的中国卡车货运企业平均 拥有不到两辆货车，几乎无法形成稳定顺 畅的供应链，这种情况在中国物流业普遍 成本较高的情况下颇为显著。 中国物流与采购联 合会的 数 据 表 明，2012年中国物流业占到了全国GDP的近 五分之一，是西方国家的两倍多。中国物流 业成本同比增长了11.4%，去年达到9.4万亿 人民币（1.51万亿美元）。 即将离任的中国国务院总理温家宝在今 年2月提到了这个问题，敦促物流业精兵简 政，削减成本。 对于运输业而言，整合的动力可能并非 仅仅出于纯粹的经济原因。 在过去几个月里，中国各地均出现了污 染造成的雾霾现象。更令人震惊的是，据《 新民周刊》今年2月进行的一项调查显示， 在首都北京呆一天相当于抽21支烟。 正如大连记者Mark Downing在他的定期 商品专题（第13页）中所写的那样，中国希 望到2020年将大气污染和温室气体排放量 削减高达45%。 卡车运输业已作好充分准备，降低尾气 排放。环保部最新数据显示，大型卡车数 量仅占中国运输车队的5%，但却产生了超 过60%的颗粒物排放。 据China Internet Watch信息，电子商务 领域的物流成本较为低廉，与美国每公斤 6美元的运费相比，中国每公斤货物运费只

需1美元。对中国网络零售业增长趋势的 预测着实令人震惊，这一点也在上海记者 EngenTham对电子商务巨头1号店（近期被 沃尔玛收购）首席执行官兼联合创始人进 行的独家专访中，请参见第25页。

SamChambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com

订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取 Si no Sh ip 期 刊。对于所 有 其他公司，订 阅 Si noSh ip 2 012 年 4 期 需 要 收 费10 0 美 元。订 阅 每月发 行 两 次 的 P D F 格 式 的 S i n o S h i p电子 新 闻（包含 独 家 新 闻、数 据 和 分 析）需 收 费 5 0 0 美 元 。订 阅 咨 询 请 发 送 邮 件 到 subs@asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 为确保 本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社 对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何 责任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不 得对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以 任何形式或方式传输。

今 年1月，我们的 母公司A si a S h ip pi n g M e d i a 推出了全 新的全 球 旗 舰出版物 Maritime CEO。Maritime CEO汇集了有关航运和海工业领军人物发展思路的独家 见解。经验丰富的记者团队采访足迹遍布全球，每天都会与业界核心高管取得联 系。这些专访内容将会被编辑成人物专访，每天在网站上发布一篇。有关详细信 息，请访问www.maritime-ceo.com

Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 经济

习近平将继续延续前任领导人的绝大多数政策

习近平的工作重点 对于中国新一届领导班子来说，城市化、国内消费和社会稳定堪称政府工作的 重中之重。作者：Paul French 随着以 习近平为首的中共新一 届领导班子于今 年3月开始执 掌中国经济，他们有机会做出 一些变革。不过，之所以说习近 平及其任命的领导班子不大可 能在经济政策层面上有大的变 化，主要原因在于他们在胡锦 涛-温家宝执政期间一直给当 时的领导班子担任“副手”。保 持政策的延续性将是中国新一 届领导班子工作的主旋律。但 实际上，中国新一代的领导人 别无选择，只能继续对中国的 经济结构进行重大改革。 很有可能推行改革的一个方 面将是在城市进行。习近平表 示，持续的大规模城市化发展 （目标是到2020年超过60%的 中国人都成为城市居民）将是 本届政府领导人的主要施政纲 领，因此继续深化户口改革很 有可能成为新一届政府改革日 程的头等大事。 除北京、上海和省会城市之 外的三级城市是57%的城镇人

口和大约1亿 农民工 工作生活 之所。因为这些农民工没有城 市户口，所以他们通常不能像 所在城市的永久居民一样享有 相同水准的教育、医疗和住房 服务。 尽管如此，城市化仍是不可 逆转的历史洪流，这对于建筑 行业是个利好消息，因为需要 兴建更多老百姓买得起的新房 供这些新的城市居民居住。因 此，三级城市的房地产市场必 须 要 破 除 限 制 外 来 务工 人 员 家庭购房的重重障碍。虽然新 房 还 远 远 超 出外 来 务工 人 员 的承受能力，但政府有望兴建 大 量低收 入住房。目前，外来 务工人员的月平均收入大约是 2 , 2 4 9 元 人民币，或 者家 庭年 收入在54,000元人民币左右。 这意味着只有很少一部分外来 务工人员有能力在三级城市购 房置 业，因为这些城市的房屋 均价在每 平米 5 0 0 0 元人民币 左右。

持续的大规模城市化发展将是本 届政府领导人的主要施政纲领

如 果国家大 力兴 建 补助 性 低收入住房，那么显然城市中 能够成为城市永久居民并拥有 自己住房的外来务工人员人数 将越来越多，这将促进城市零 售业和医疗领域私人消费的增 长，纳税人数也将大幅增加。 政 府 社会 福 利支出将延 续 胡锦涛-温家宝执政时期的路 线，有望继续保持增长。在胡 锦涛-温家宝执政期间，政府在 医疗方面的投入增长了9 倍。 尽管如此，对于绝大多数中国 人而言，医疗资源依然严重匮

乏，医疗费用更是无法承受。 习近平必须对相关体系进行改 革，加大医疗方面的投入。这一 点同样适用于教育体制。随着 城市人口越来越多，提供社会 服务被视为在城市居民中保持 社会稳定的好方法。 从经济方面来看，目前主要 西方经济体仍然深陷经济危机 的泥沼，中国政府推行的将经 济增长点从国内投资和出口转 变为刺激内需这一举措备受各 界关注。中国零售业市场依然 保持增长势头，习近平希望这 一良好势头保持下去。不过，要 做到这一点，中国政 府必须花 大力气控制通胀和稳定日益上 涨的生活成本。这一点可通过 更为有效的农业生产和得当的 地方税收得以实现。 此外，还有两项不太确定的 政 策 是习近平 必 须 解 决 的问 题，因为它们关系到中国经济 未来的稳定和发展轨迹。第一 个是依法治国，这是确保中国 经济 持 续 发 展和 保 持 社会 稳 定的根基所在，能否在这一方 面 取得 进 步 将 是 衡 量 新 一届 中共领导人工作成绩的一项重 要标准。坦率地说，依法治国 这一关键领域在胡锦涛-温家 宝执政期间进步甚微。其次是 反腐问题。持续不断反复出现 的 贪腐 现 象 不 仅 是 经济 和 政 治体制的心腹大患，威胁到社 会的稳定，也是投资者最担心 的问题。习近平任命王岐山担 任中 共 政 法 委 书记 和 政 治局 常委委员，被视为一项非常积 极的举措。王岐山在有效处理 危机事件方面负有盛名，并且 他 对中国 错 综 复 杂的 金 融 体 系非常了解。习近平任 命王岐 山担任政法委书记，可能预示 着中 共 将进 一步加 大 反 腐 倡 廉的力度。

主要数据

2011 GDP（万亿美元） 47.3 人均GDP（美元） 5,400 贸易差额（十亿美元） 155 外商直接投资（十亿美元） 171 GDP增幅（%） 9.3

2012 52.3 6,100 220 150 7.8

2013 58.5 7,000 260 120 8.3

资料来源：敏特 (Mintel）、摩根大通 (JP Morgan）、《中国经济季刊》(China Economic Quarterly）、国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics）

Sinoship 2013年春季刊

5

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■ ■ ■ 班轮

亏损的不利局面继续在全国范 围内蔓延。根据中国船东协会 的有关数据表明，中国航运企 业所面临的困境更趋严峻。中 国船东协会秘书长张守国介绍 说：“2011年大约70%的航运 企业存在亏损情况，到2012年 这一比例已超过80%。”张守 国秘书长表示，2013年的形势 可能要比上一年度更为严峻。

目前中国股票市场采取“三振 出局”（three strikes and you’ re out）的制度，引起本土 航运业的广泛关注。凡是连续 两年业绩亏损的上市企业，都 会被监管机构视为重点关注的 对象，如果企业连续三年亏 损，将被强行退市。长航凤凰 （CSC Phoenix）和中国远洋 控股有限公司（China Cosco Holdings）目前都处在警告区 域之内，而南京油运股份有限 公司（Nanjing Tanker）作为 中国外运长航集团在油运方面 的左膀右臂，可能面临暂停交 易的处罚，因为它此前警告股 东有可能连续三年亏损。

中国海洋石油总公司（China National Offshore Oil Corporation, CNOOC）今年将投资多达140 亿美元，用于石油勘探、钻

井装置和油田服务船舶和其 它设施。该公司计划今年在 中国海域的10个近海油田开始 投产，同时还有24个项目正 在建设当中。其下属企业中 海油服（China Oilfield Services Limited, COSL）将购买两座400 英尺高的自升式钻塔和一座 5,000英尺高的半潜式钻塔和14 艘物探船舶、1艘PSV、一艘测 量船和一艘地震勘探船。

中国两家领先的航运企业， 中国远洋集装箱运输有限公 司（Cosco Container Lines, Coscon）和中国外运长航集团 有限公司（Sinotrans&CSC） ，已经宣布计划在中国-日本 集装箱运输航线上开展合作。 这进一步表明中国政府要求国 有海运巨头在经济下行时期 加强合作的努力。从二月底 开始，中国远洋集装箱运输 有限公司和中国外运长航集 团有限公司的两家下属子公 司，即上海泛亚航运有限公司 （Shanghai PanAsia Shipping） 和中外运集装箱运输有限公司 （Sinotrans Container Lines） ，将共同运营中国东部和北部 地区到日本的航线，目的是整 合这两家公司的资源。去年秋 天，就在此消息发布之前，中 远集运和中海集运曾宣布首次 合作运营国内多条航线。

继大连远洋（Cosco Dalian） 于去年订购一系列超大型油 轮，为中国长期规划的超大型 油轮联营体做出贡献之后， 招商局能源运输股份有限公 司（China Merchant Energy Shipping, CMES）又订购了 大量类似的船舶，使联营体 船队规模进一步壮大。CMES 去年表示，它将用通过股票 发行筹集到的大约29亿元， 在未来三年内订购多达10艘 超大型油轮。它并没有浪费 时间，已经在上海江南长兴

造船公司订购了三艘超大型 油轮以及另外3艘超大型油轮 的选择权。CMES之后又订购 了6艘船舶，由大连船舶重工 （Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co）和上海外高桥造船有限 公司（Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding）各制造三艘。

海航旅业邮轮游艇管理有限公 司（HNA Tourism Cruise and Yacht Management），中国大 陆首家邮轮管理公司，于1月6 日庆祝公司的首艘邮轮 Henna 首航。这艘47,700gt的邮轮原 名为Pacific Sun，由海航集团 去年从P&O Cruises购得，将 开始在三亚-下龙湾-岘港航线 运营。今年夏天，Henna号将 从五月份开始将邮轮母港转到 天津港，沿着韩国诸港的航线 航行，这些韩国港口包括仁 川、济州岛和丽水。有关海航 旅业邮轮游艇管理有限公司总 裁张浩接受采访的内容，请参 见第16页。

赵式明（Sabrina Chao）女士于 今年1月升任香港华光海运控股 有限公司（Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings）主席。她是 从父亲赵世光（George）那里 女承父业，其父担任这家著名 香港散货船公司总裁。Vincent Lai被任命为首席财务官和公司 董事。赵式明女士自从其父患 病以来，一直负责这家有60年 历史的香港公司的日常运营。 有关这位新女掌门人的专访内 容，请参见第17页。

台湾阳明海运（Yang Ming Marine Transport）刚于1月中旬 与韩国现代重工集团（Hyundai Heavy Industries）签订了价值6 亿美元的集装箱船大单，并计 划到2015年完成船队大幅扩展 的目标。加拿大的Seaspan已经 在这家韩国造船企业订购了5 艘14,000标准箱的超大型集装 箱船以及另外5艘的选择权。这 些环保的大型集装箱船两年后 交付给阳明海运时将采取价格 非常低廉的长期租赁形式。根 据Alphaliner统计数据显示，阳 明海运目前是全球第14大集装 箱船运输企业，船队总运力为 358,510标准箱。

尽管2012年最后一个季度形势 艰难，东方海外货柜航运有限 公司（Orient Overseas Container Line, OOCL）本年度的收入和利 润提升都足以让绝大多数同行 企业艳羡不已。OOCL2012年集 装箱的运输量达到522万标准 箱，比2011年增加3.7%。该公司 的母公司OOIL在其新闻稿中报 导称，该公司年收入增长6.7% ，达到59亿美元。其中，亚洲 境内和澳大拉西亚贸易往来贡 献最大，占到267万标准箱和 20.9亿美元。OOCL的首席执行 官Andy Tung（见照）告诉 SinoShip“最为重要的是，除了 需要在单艘运输船这一层面采 取有效的成本控制措施，运力 部署严加控制外，还要能够保 持可持续发展的运费，这从整 个行业的层面来说也是必须 的，能够为大家重建更加稳 定、更加健康的商业环境。”

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Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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船厂

成败难料 在造船业的惨淡年景里，只有海工和液化天然气（LNG）的需求保持增长， Wang Fanglei 撰稿 一月份 对 于全球的造船业来 说 是 新 船 订单 相 对 活跃 的月 份，不过还是完全无法满足业 务日益枯竭的中国造船企业的 需求。预计中国造船业在新的 一年中将更加步履维艰，在这 个大背景下，海工业务和天然气 业务是仅有的亮点。 伦敦的Clarkson Research Services提供了一项令人吃惊的 统计数据，该数据表明，中国造 船企业的确身处困境。 这家全球最大经纪公司的研 究机构表示，2012年年底时，仅 有153家中国造船厂仍有订单在 手。相比之下，2010年年底时， 握有订单的造船厂数量为243 家。截止到2013年 初，中国造 船厂获得的订单数量为1,832艘 船，总吨位为1.094亿载重吨， 与2010年初的订单相比载重吨 数锐减47.3%，获得的订单数量 也大幅减少。2010年有149家造 船厂获得了新订单，不过2012 年期间仅有69家造船厂勉强签 订了造船合同。

Clarkson表示： “[虽然]订单 数量锐减，但中国本土造船企 业不大可能从政府那里获得任 何形式的补贴。” 与 2 010 年 初相比，现 在 获 得订单的造船厂的数量减少了 90家。 在总结时，Clarkson称： “船 舶签约大环境整体疲软，意味 着其他大量造船厂逐渐陷入订 单枯竭的尴尬境地。那些在持 续推进多元化过程方面做得最 成功的造船厂从2011年就开始 陷入窘境，而那些承受能力较 强的造船厂也从2012年开始订 单吃紧。” 香 港造船数 据咨询机构 Worldya rds的总经理Matthew Flynn在对数据进行评论时向 Si no Sh ip透 露： “今 年 我们将 能 够 区分 出哪 些 造 船 企 业以 坚不 可摧 的 意 志全 力适 应 危 机，哪些企业坐等造船业迎来 转机。” 中国 船 舶 工业 行 业 协 会 (CANSI）2012年年报指出，海工

业务存有一丝希望。 2012年，海工装备市场取得 稳步的发 展，在研发、设 计 和 实 际 建 造 这 些 方面 均 取 得了 突破。初步统计 结果显 示，中 国海工产品在全球市场所占的 份额从2011年的不到10%增至 2012年的15%以上。 C A N S I 预 计，中国 造 船 业 今 年 将 依 旧 低 迷 。不 过 ， 海 工 市 场，尤 其 是 海 上 浮 式 设备市场 将 依 旧 保 持 活 跃 。 与海工市场一样，2013年也是 中国造船企业在争夺宝贵的液 化天然气船合同订单以寻求突

153 家造船厂仍有订单在 手到 2012 年年底相 比之下，2010年年底 时，握有订单的造船 厂数量为 243 家

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破的重要一年。迄今为止，只有 上海的沪东中华造船（集团） 有限公司已经建造了液化天然 气船，这种情况有望在未来几 个月全面改观。 S i n o S h i p 从中 海 发 展 股 份有限公司(Ch i n a S h ippi n g Development，CSD）那里了解 到，该 公 司 仍 在 与 计 划 再 订 购 六 艘 液化 天 然 气 运 输 船 的 多方进行洽 谈，其中最有可能 的 是日本 的 商 船 三 井 株 式会 社(Mitsui OSK Lines，MOL） 。上 海 的 一 位 负 责 人 介 绍 说 ：“ 该 项 目 的 洽 谈 工 作 已 经 持 续了很 长 时 间，不 过 至 今 尚 未 签 订 任 何 合 同 。” 2011年，MOL和CSD在沪东中华 造船（集团）有限公司订购了四 艘172,000立方米的液化天然气 运输船，这是中国造船企业获 得的首笔液化天然气运输船订 单。SinoShip从上海有关方面了解 到，外界都认为这两家企业将很 快追加订单，预计其中一家企业 将在同一家造船厂再订购六艘 船，交易金额据信将达到11亿美 元左右。这些船将用于中国石化 从澳大利亚运送液化天然气。 与 此 同 时，英 国 天 然 气 集 团 公司 计 划 成 为中国 最 大 的 液 化 天 然 气 供 应 商，已 经 承 诺 将 与 合 作 伙伴 中国 海洋 石 油总公司(CNO O C）合作再建 造 至 少两 艘 液化 天 然 气 运 输 船。有 三 家 船 厂 已 经 进 入 该 造 船 合 同 的 候 选 名 单 。这 两 家企业之前已经于2010年3月 签 署 购 买 两 艘 液化 天 然 气 运 输船的协议。 CNOOC在刚刚兴起的液化 天然气领域非常抢眼。它还在 计 划订 购 一加一 艘3 0 , 0 0 0立 方米 的 液化 天 然 气 运 输 船。 目前，江 南造 船（集团）有限 责任 公司和 大 连 船 舶 重 工集 团 有 限 公司 正 在 竞 标 这一 合 同 。C N O O C 还 招 标 建 造 两 艘 小 型 液化 天 然 气 运 输 船， 目前上海 船 舶 研 究设 计 院 (SDARI）正在进行这些船舶的 设计工作。 与 此 同 时，化 工 物 流 提 供 商Dalian Intech Group正在计 划 一 个 新的 2 8 , 0 0 0 - 3 0 , 0 0 0 立 方米 液化 天 然 气 运 输 船 项 目。大连中远船务工程有限公 司(Cosco Dalian Shipyard）和 渤 海 船 舶 重 工 有限责任 公司 (Bohai Shipbuilding Industry） 目前正在竞标这个项目。 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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勇攀钻井平台高峰 据首席记者 Katherine Si 报道，中国奋力跻身钻井建造领域并以便宜多达20%的价格优势战胜新加坡 我 们 在 这 些报道中已说过多 少次，中国在此领域跻身世界 领先地位已为时不远？总是提 及 。钻 井 平 台 的 情 况 也 是 如 此，目前处于领先地位的是新 加坡，其次是韩国，但该领域在 中国出现类似的新生特征（低 廉的价格、大型企业四处寻找 机会、更丰富的设计）表明中国 正在努力跻身世界领先地位。 中国国务院最近公布的能源 发展计划强调中国将加速勘探 和开发近海油气，特别应关注 于提高深水作业能力。 CIConsulting的分析师李文 倩认为，中国的钻井建造企业 应关注于非洲和亚洲市场。凭 借中国的价格优势，以及与非 洲国家的良好关系及其在亚洲 国家间的影响力，中国在这两 个区域的业务将大获丰收。 新加坡分析师认为，中国奋 力跻身钻井建造领域并以便宜 多达20%的价格优势战胜新加 坡。 例 如 在 1 2 月，中国 扬 子 江 船业获得了一 份1.7亿 美 元 的 自 升 式 平 台 订 单 ，而 新 加 坡 吉宝船厂(Keppel Offshore & M a r i ne)获得的一 份相似合

COSL

同的价值为2 .0 5 亿美 元。 中国已明确其在2015年前获取 全球钻井平台、生产设施和海 工产品市场20%份额的计划。 作为中国国内半 潜市场 领 导 者 的 中 远 航 运（C o s c o Shipping）预计，随着大量旧钻 井平台的废弃，中国将进入建 造新钻井平台的高峰期。 但并非所有人都如此乐观。 一 名 来自中国 船 舶 重 工 集 团 (CSIC)经济研究中心的高级官 员告诉SinoShip： “中国的钻井 平台制造领域既面临着前所未 有的发展机遇又面临着重大挑 战”。他预计，尽管近年来在钻 井平台建造领域取得了巨大进 步，但中国与世界领先国家仍有 很大差距。 还有一些人也不确信中国能 否很快超越新加坡。 星展唯高达（DBS Vickers） 证 券 研 究（新 加 坡）的 主 管 Janice Chua在1月份向Channel News Asia透露： “让中国船厂 努力获 取 全 球 钻 井 平台市 场 份 额 是 一 项 艰 巨 的 任 务”。 “ 为了使 中国 船 厂 获 取 更 大 的全球市场份额，诸如项目管 理、工程、设 计 专业服务之类

作为中国近海市场领先的综合油田服务提 供商，中海油服(China Oilfield Ser vices Limited, COSL)共运营着34座钻井平台， 其中27座为自升式平台、7座为半潜式钻井 平台，以及两艘 生活平台、四套 模 块 钻 机 和八套陆地钻机。公司预计2013年将有更 多钻井 平台业 务，全 球钻井 平台的日费率 将保持高涨。其今年的开支计划是购买两 座400英尺自升式钻井平台和一座5,000英 尺半潜式钻井平台以及14艘物探船舶、1艘 PSV、一艘测量船和一艘地震勘探船。

的软技能就显得更为重要，同 时还要确保他们能够按照客户 的要求按时交付项目。建立此 类海工架构均需要至少三年时 间。” 一名拒绝透露姓名的新加坡 海工业务顾问对中国的钻井平 台技能评论称： “中国目前的不 足在于缺乏经验。但缺乏经验 可以用时间来弥补。” 以善 于“ 讲 价 ”而 著 称 的 John Fredriksen非常关注于中 国在钻井平台方面的能力。他 的海工业务公司Seadrill在1月 底与大连船舶重工集团海洋工

程有限公司(Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Offshore, DSIC Offshore) 签署了一项建造两座高规格自 升式钻井平台的协议。这些新 的自升式钻井平台与Seadrill目 前在大连和新加坡裕廊建造的 四座自升式钻井平台具有相同 的设计。 F r e d r i k s e n 对 该订单评论 说： “目前，312座自升式钻井 平台—即全部483座自升式钻 井平台中的65%的服役年限均 已超过25年。”这一统计数据清 楚地表明，中国及其它地区将 得到大量订单。

缺乏经验可以用时间来弥补 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 金融

退市危机 最近中国大陆的上市公司面临困境，作者：EngenTham

经济持续下行。许多亏损的船运企业 都面临从股市退市的风险

64% 中国去年通过首次公 开募股 (IPO）筹集到 的资金锐减 。

2013 年中国航运业值得关注 的一个问题就是许多行业顶尖 企业面临从股市退市的威胁。 中国实施“三惩罚”规则，凡是 连续三年业绩亏损的企业都会 面临被迫从股市退市的命运。 航运业的低迷已经进入第五个 年头。根据中国船东协会的调 查数据，2012年有超过80%的 中国航运企业都是业绩亏损。 该协会还警告说2013年的形势 将更为严峻。 诚然，近年来有些航运企业 把企业业绩不佳归咎为运气欠 佳，也的确有些企业从危机中 成 功脱险，不过，这些上市企 业的船东们不必认为只有自己 的股票表现不佳，实际上中国 大陆证券交易所的绝大多数股 票的价格都大幅下降。 为了在 一定 程 度 上 提 振 不 断下跌的股票价格，中国证监 会(CSRC）从去年10月份就关闭 12

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中国大陆的IPO审批窗口，此举 造成900家上市候选企业的上 市事宜暂停。为了加强对大陆 股票交易所的控制和对股票上 市候选企业提出更高的要求， 中国证监会紧急修改了审批流 程和相关法规。在此情况下，在 多达900家的上市候选企业中， 航运企业要想最终成功上市， 无疑要经历更多的艰难险阻。

盈率已经 从 2 010 年的 7 1% 降 至2012年的30%左右，降幅超 过50%。” 对于中国 证 监会 叫停 新股 上 市 的 动 机 ，评 论 家 们 意 见 不一。 上海证券交易所(SSE）的一 位业内人士表示： “目前对IPO 尚无正式的限制。去年，之所 以有些候选企业未能达到上市

中国大陆股票市场处于衰退之中 中国大 陆 的股 票市场目前 处于衰 退期。Bloomberg的数 据 显 示，2 01 2 年 企 业 通 过 在 中国大陆以IPO的形式共筹集 到14 6 亿美 元，较2 011年锐减 64%。摩根士丹利华夏全球资 本市场部总经理Lisa Tian介 绍说“I P O目前无 利 可图。市

标准，是因为经济整体表现欠 佳，因此这些企业必须重新走 一遍审批流程。” 但是，有些评论家却认为政 府旨在通过此举来控制市场中 的资本流动。 LisaTian介绍说： “去年，我 们申请价值120 亿元人民币的

中国建筑材料集团公司(China National Building Materials Group Corporation）上市被拒。 如果该企业当时成功上市，就 会吸纳大量流动资金，给股价 造成下行压力— 造成市场不 稳定。而政府的一项重要任务 就是保持股票市场稳定。” 在此空档期，中国证监会已 经采取措施确保上市候选企业 的财务状况得到如实上报，同 时要求负责这些企业上市事宜 的审计人员和会计人员更加严 格地检查企业的财务情况。此 外，中国证 监会 还采取了抽查 账目的措施。 中国证 监会采 取 这些 措 施 旨在让中国的这些上市候选企 业如实上报企业财务情况，因 为这些企业的账目中经常充斥 着大量不准确数据，甚至有时 包含虚假数据。 “虚假 报 告 的 情况 非常严 重。通常情况下，许多企业使用 内部交易，或编造虚假交易， 并 将 这 些 失 实 交 易计入 财务 报表中，以满足上市的财务要 求，因为这些企业必须证明企 业业务增长，上市申请才有可 能获批。航运企业伪造收益报 告并非难事，因为它们可以请 客户提供虚假的船运订单。此 外，航运企业还可以将未来到 账的收入列为当前收入，或减 少计入的支出，增加计入的收 入，并可在账簿上少算员工工 资。”Lisa Tian解释说， “此类 方法还有很多，不胜枚举。” 如 果 上市候 选 企 业中有船 运企业，并且这些企业没有受 到同行企业股票价格下跌的拖 累，那么，我们建 议务必 要严 格地对这些企业的财务数据详 加调查。

商品

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北京致命的尾气污染程度相当于每天吸21根香烟

燃气能源 大连记者Mark Downing为读者解析液化石油气（LPG）在中国的发展前景 近期，北京的空气污染程度从 糟糕恶化到了严重超标的危险 程度。全市500万辆汽车经常堵 得水泄不通，排出的尾气更是 充斥着北京的大街小巷。中国 在全国范围内普遍依赖燃煤发 电厂为工业供电和为数亿户家 庭供暖。中国数百个人口超百 万的城市普遍存在类似的交通 堵塞和污染问题，这正在对公 众的健康和忍耐力造成严重影 响。是否具备切实提高人民生 活水平的能力一直是中共政权 合法性的重要基础，而这一点 正日益受到质疑。 数年来，中国政府对日益恶 化的空气质量问题一直避重就 轻—坚称罪魁祸首是雾—直 到不久前才承认是污染问题。 为 此，政 府 已 经 推 出 多 项 举 措，对工厂和车辆制定更高的 排放标准，从烧煤供暖转变为 燃气供暖，并加大了对可再生 能源的投资力度。为切实控制 污染和温室气体排放量，中国 的目标是 到2 0 2 0 年 将天然气 占能源消耗总量的比重提高到 10%。为使该计划切实可行，需 要克服诸多困难才能使天然气 价格低于煤，例如颁布相应的

定价机制，鼓励投入高昂成本 开发国内天然气资源，以及进 一步加大对运输和存储基础设 施的投资力度。 作为 最清洁 的 化 石燃 料之 一，液化石油气（LPG）在中国 绿 色 能 源计 划中发 挥 着 重 要 作用。据国有企业中国石油化 工集团公司（Sinopec）估计， 中国住宅 / 商业领域因烹饪和 取暖消耗了中国液化石油气供 应总量的6 0%左右，工业消耗 量为20%，剩余部分则由其他 各 个 领域 所消耗。Platts的数

的替代型燃料，不过专用基础 设施为这方面所提供的支持力 度非常有限。世界液化石油气 协会（World LPG Association） 的相关数据显示，2010年中国 登 记 在 册 的1. 9 9 亿 辆 机 动车 中，仅有14.3万辆车使用液化石 油气作为燃料。相比之下，邻国 韩国在推广液化石油气作为机 动车燃料方面遥遥领先，使用 液化石油气作为燃料的车辆数 量多达230万辆。 过去十年间，中国经济陷入 低 迷 前一直 严重依 赖 液化 石

在可以预见的未来，随着中国逐 步提升自身产能，其液化石油气进 口量将回落 据显示，部分中国交易商说， 国内 生 产 的 液化 石油 气中 有 50%到60%被作为石化燃料以 生产芳烃，然后将生产出的芳 烃与汽油相混合— 这种情况 在中国北方地区的概率可能高 达80%。 名义上说，液化石油气在中 国是摩托车、出租车和公交车

油气 进口；不过，由于中国炼 油产能不断提高，产量随之增 大，中国对液化石油气的进口 依赖程度正快速下降。目前， 中国生产的绝大多数液化石油 气 来自于原油蒸馏，不过，在 不久的将来，中国可能能够像 沙 特 阿拉伯、卡塔 尔、印度 尼 西亚和澳大利亚等世界主要石

油出口国一样从天然气中提取 液化石油气。 中国的液化石油气市场日趋 活跃。中石油（PetroChina）和中 石化继续对下属炼油企业生产 的液化石油气进行统一销售， 同时各大天然气公司均已扩大 各自的零售业务，并加大液化天 然气（LNG）管道的建设力度。 随着替代燃气供应量的增加， 住宅/商业领域的需求下降，导 致液化石油气经销商之间竞争 加剧。 鉴于 液化 石油 气作为原 料 是随时可供消耗的最终产品， 所以工业和石化领域对它的需 求量与日俱增。液化石油气不 仅燃烧洁净，并且能够达到较 高温度，非常适用于生产特种 钢。此外，随着国内液化石油气 产量所占份额不断增长，注定 将促使液化石油气深加工市场 快速发展，从而生产乙烯和芳 烃汽油等产品。到2016年，中国 此等产品的年产能有望最终达 到692万吨。 以西方国家的城市为鉴，改 善空气质量将是一项耗时数十 载的巨大 工程。长 远 来 看，液 化石油气作为发动机燃料拥有 巨大发展潜力，是进一步遏制 日益恶化的城市空气污染的重 要手段。不过，在可以预见的未 来，随着中国逐步增大液化石 油气产能以满足其液化石油气 深加工行业的需求，进口量有 望回落。 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 物流

卡车运输网络支离破碎 Jason Jiang详细剖析中国严重支离破碎的运输业 过去20年，中国在经济方面的 变化可谓是天翻地覆，不过在 物流运输方面中国的浪费情况 非常严重。在过去的五年中，中 国物流运输方面的支出一直占 GDP总额的18%，差不多是发达 国家平均水平的两倍。 这一不足之处的主要根源在 于中国卡车运输网络严重支离 破碎的现状。中国非常依赖用 卡车来运输货物。拿集装箱来 说，只有不到十分之一是用铁 路从港口运出的。而邻国印度 有35%的货物是通过铁路运输 的。 更引人注目的是，据领先的 卡车制造商斯堪尼亚公司的相 关数据显示，中国95%的卡车货 运企业平均只有1.5辆卡车。 此 外，由于 缺乏监管，整个 市场竞争极为激烈。 据中国道路运输协会（China Road Transport Association, CRTA）一位不愿透露姓名的官 员称，中国卡车货运市场的情况 可谓是“混乱不堪”。 这位官员警告说： “目前，中 国公路货运站的发展严重滞后， 这主要是因为行业内设施不足、 标准不完善和 恶 性 竞 争 造 成 的。”他补充说： “货运行业高 度分散，很少有卡车货运企业 拥有覆盖全国的运输网络。绝 大多数时间里，托运人只能与 众多物流运输经营企业打交道， 因此成本居高不下。” 比利时物流运输巨头阿勒斯 （Ahlers）运输公司大中华区总 经理戴立鹏评论说： “卡车运输 业位于物流产业链的低端，利 润率非常微薄。如今燃油成本 不断上涨，进一步压低了利润， 使该行业处境更为艰难。” 为了提升卡车运输业的效率， 中国有关主管部门正在努力在 内地卡车运输业中推行“甩挂 运输”，这种运输方式在很多 发 达国家都已得到广泛 应 用。 甩挂运输就是卡车驾驶员将随 车拖带的承载装置，包括半挂 车、全挂车，甩留发货人或收货 人处，再拖带其他装满货物的 装置返回原地。 在美国， “甩挂 运输”的运 14

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输量占货物运输总量的70%到 80%，而在中国这个比例仅有不 足10%。 中国政府已经计划构建一系 列甩挂运输网络。此 外，交 通 部还设 立了专项资金，为甩挂 货车运输 试 点项目提 供 补助， 每个项目最多可获得1000万人 民币的资金支持。上海还专门 发布了一项新政策，为采用甩 挂运输方式的企业免除多项费 用和税费。 斯 堪 尼 亚（中 国）公 司 的 董 事 总 经 理 何 墨 池（M a t s Harborn）评论说： “甩挂运输 方式的利用率低，是中国货车 运输效率低、成本高的一个主 要原因。”何墨池先生虽然对中 国政府认识到这一问题的严重 性表示赞赏，不过他警告说解 决 这一问题“只不过是冰山一 角”。 他认为，甩挂运输这种模式 适用于拥有庞大车队和巨大网 络的大型货运企业，不过由于 中国运输业分散脱节的问题严 重，因此这种模式目前对中国 价值不大。 何先生补充说： “行业内小 型私营 货运企 业的数 量过多， 因此市场竞争十分激烈。在此 情况下，每辆货车运送的货 物 数 量 更 少，运费也 更低。”

他认为，甩挂运输这种模式 在短期内对中国货运业的作用 不大。政府的工作重点应当放 在出台必要的法律规定，确保 货运业能够健康发展，而非延 续目前恶性竞争的不良态势。 中国只有为数不多的几家企 业拥有大型车队，中国外运集 团（Sinotrans）就是其中之一， 它是中国最大的物流提供商。 目前，中国外运集团已经在 国内构建了由七个公路物流配 送中心构成的运输网络，除了 运营约400辆自有的货车外，还 管理来自其它公司的大约4,000 辆货车。 中国外运集团成都分公司的 管理人员Wang Xugang表示： “ 越来越多的制造企业为节省成 本，将生产基地迁到中西部相 对不发达地区。为了克服由此 带来的挑战，我们正在持续不 断 地更 新我们的供 应链 解 决 方案，我们的具体做法是提高 我们卡车运输网络的运输能力， 整合并管理规模较小企业的车 队，以及为客户定制供应链解 决方案。” 随着越 来越多的工厂开始 向西部迁移，中国目前正在构

建巨大的公路网络，规模之大 前所未有。 中国拥有全世界最长的高速 公路系统。2012年，中国高速公 路网络新增的高速公路长度达 12,409公里—这相当于英国全 国高速公路系统道路总长的四 倍。从2010年到2020年，中国计 划投入高速公路发展的年投资 额为1000亿人民币。 现在需要加强 运输 枢 纽 建 设。传化集团（Transfar Group） 是一家内地私营企业，该集团 与新加坡普洛斯公司（Globa l Logistics Properties, GLP）通过 合资企业的形式，一直致力于 在全中国范围内发展物流中心 和公路港（整合的卡车货运服 务平台）。迄今为止，该合资企 业已经在成都、苏州和杭州拥 有三个公路港。今年1月份，该 合资企业又在泉州和石家庄签 约了另外两个公路港项目。该合 资公司还计划再建设10个公路 港项目。 传化 集团的 一 位 发言人 总 结说： “整个行业需要得到全 国性的完备的运营网络的支持， 因此发展标准化的公路货运站 非常重要。”

邮轮

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还有很多事情要做 现在离期待已久的香港启德邮轮码头正式启用只剩下3个月的时间，该邮轮码头位于香港前启德机场

中国沿 海 各地都已经兴建或 正 在 兴 建 大 型 邮 轮 码 头。不 过，现在最令人期待的是即将 落成的香港启德邮轮码头，现 在 离该 码 头正 式 启用所 剩 时 间 不多，这 座 将于 6月份启用 的 码 头 位于 维 多 利 亚 港 原 启 德机场。 香 港政 府正 全 力以赴确 保 这 座 鲨 鱼 牙 齿 形 状 的超 一流 邮 轮 码 头开业 后生 意 兴 隆。 今年一月份，香港与Seatrade在 红磡唯港荟酒店（Hotel Icon） 联 合 举 办了 首个 邮 轮 论 坛， 嘉 年 华 邮 轮（C a r n i v a l）、 精钻会邮轮（Azamara Club C r u i s e s）、皇 家 加 勒比 邮 轮 （Royal Caribbean）、水晶邮轮 （Crystal Cruises）和丽星邮轮 （Star Cruises）等全球大型邮 轮公司高层参加了此次论坛。 按计划，今年将共有16艘邮

轮在香港启德邮轮码头停靠。 去年，在邮轮上过夜的乘客每 天平均消费达4,833港币，是一 般游客消费金额的两倍。启德 邮轮码头的第2个泊位预计将 于2015年落成。 香 港旅 游 事 务专员容 伟 雄 （Philip Yung）先生介绍说： “ 香港已经准备好在本地区推动 邮轮业务的迅猛发展，我们兴 建香港启德邮轮码头，就是我 们立志将香港打造成本地区首 屈一指的邮轮港口战略的重要 组成部分。” 潜 力巨大 。嘉 年 华 邮 轮 公 司亚 洲 董 事长 和 首席 执 行 官 Pier Luigi Foschi预计，到2020 年，以中国为首的亚洲市场份 额将占到全球市场份额的20% 。2011年，有170万亚洲游客乘 坐邮轮出行。Foschi在邮轮 论 坛 上 表 示，这一 数 字 到 2 0 2 0

年 将 突破 70 0万，甚至可 高达 1000万。 香 港力争发 展 成 为本地 区 的邮轮停泊中心，这一远大抱 负得 到 了中央 政 府 的 大 力支 持。去年6月，有关部门宣布， 允许内地旅行团乘坐邮轮从香 港到台湾，并继续乘坐该邮轮 前往日本或韩国旅游，最后返 回内地。

容 伟 雄 先 生 表 示：“ 这 对 于香 港和邮 轮 运营 商 来说 都 绝 对 是 利 好 消 息，这 项 政 策 出台 之 后，我 们 就 能 够 充 分 开 拓日益 发 展 的 内 地 市 场， 在 东 亚 地 区 定 制 更富 有 吸引 力的旅游线路。” 这位香 港旅 游 事 务专员对 于 究 竟 该 如 何使香 港 在 全 球 邮 轮 业 更 加坚 实地 站 稳 脚跟 方面采取非常务实的态度— 即加强相互间的交流 互动。 容 伟 雄 先 生 介 绍 说 ：“ 无 疑，我们需要联合本地区附近 的港口通力合作，共同增强本 地区的整体吸引力并促进本地 区游客对邮轮旅游的需求，这 点非常重要。” 外形张 扬的启德 邮 轮码 头 由Fo s t e r +Pa r t ne r s建 筑事 务 所 设 计，坐 落 于 原 启 德 机 场 跑 道 的 西 南 端，此 处 香 港 港 口东入口的美景一览无余，可 远眺香港岛和九龙。 过 去 四 年 中 一直 在 修 建 中的启德邮 轮码 头为巨大 的 矩 形 形 状 ，主 要 有 三 层 布 局，其 中 建 有 四 个 天 井， 可以增强建筑的采光。 码头内设有步行长廊， 可 通 往 顶 层 的 园 景 平 台。 该码头可容纳8,4 0 0名乘客和 1, 2 0 0 名船 员。8 5 0 米 长 的 泊 位 能 够同时容 纳两艘3 6 0 米 长的大型船舶。

在邮轮上过夜的乘客每天平均消 费达4,833港币，是一般游客消费 额的两倍 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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外国邮轮公司垄断中 国邮轮市场 到天津港，沿着韩国诸港的航线航行，这 些韩国港口包括仁川、济州岛和丽水。 “我们致力于打造卓越的中国邮轮品 牌，促进中国邮轮业的发展，这是我们追 求的目标”，张浩表示。 邮轮业在中国仍处于初期阶段，张浩坦 承说。 “目前，中国的邮 轮市场由嘉 年 华邮 轮 (C a r n iv a l) 和皇 家加勒比邮 轮 ( R o y a l Caribbean)之类的外国邮轮公司所垄断”， 张浩指出。 “2006年，这些外国公司首次进 入中国市场，中国人才开始了解邮轮航行 这一概念。” 张浩承认 这些国际品牌为中国邮轮市 场奠定了“良好的市场基础”，但他也热 切地指出希望他的公司能够从激 烈的竞 争中脱颖而出。 “作为中国的 首 家 邮 轮公司，”张 浩 说， “除作为首家企业所具有的优势外， 我们还关注于根 据中国人的消费习惯向 他们提 供订制化的邮轮产品和整套服务 体系”。 在Sino Ship去年进行的一次调查中， 有78.3%的受访者称，国际邮轮公司到目 前为止尚不能满足中国假日游客的品位和 需求。 张浩看到的另一个有利因素是海航集 团广泛的海运、陆运和空运业务。 “我们 会将这一优势用于三个领域的交叉营销， 丰富我们的服务和产品组合。” 从人口统计学角度来说，中国人变得越 来越富有，市场自然也就越来越大，而价 格也应更具竞争力才对。 “邮轮旅游属于相对高端的市场，但我 认为它正逐渐走向大众化”，张浩说。 “一 旦竞争加剧，价格就会下降，从而使更多 的游客能够选择乘坐邮轮旅游”。 有鉴于此预期的快 速 发 展，Si no S h ip News将会发布更多有关邮轮的故事。

邮轮首航 中国首家专业邮轮公司于今年一月首秀处女航。海航旅业邮轮游艇管 理有限公司总裁张浩致语

我

们的姊妹网站SinoShip News 在2012年度阅读排名第七位 的一篇报道“Pacific Sun邮轮 驶向中国”中展 示了邮轮如 今在中国已成为一个热门话题。事实上，在 我们网站的20个点击次数最多的网页中， 有关邮轮的故事就占了三个。难怪最新预 测称，到2020年，亚洲将在中国的引领下占 据全球邮轮市场20%的份额。 去年，海 航旅 业邮轮游艇管理有限公 司购买了47,700总吨重的Pacific Sun号。 这艘游艇建 造于19 8 6 年，最初为嘉年华 邮轮公司(Carnival)的Jubilee号，其后被调

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www.sinoshipnews.com

配至澳大利亚，并于2 0 0 4 年从 悉尼出发 完成了其处女航。 海航集团拥有多家运输巨头公司，例如 海南航空(Hainan Airlines)和大新华物流 (Grand China Logistics)。该集团为了扩大了 其经营范围并构建完整的旅游产业链，于 去年建立了海航旅业邮轮游艇管理公司， 任命张浩为公司总裁。 Pacific Sun号曾驶往新加坡进行整修， 并于1月2 6日以新名称“Hen n a号”开始 其 具 有历史意义的海南至越南的首次航 行，沿途停靠三亚-下龙湾-岘港。今年夏 天，Henna号将从五月份开始将邮轮母港转

海航旅业邮轮游艇 管理有限公司 海 航 旅 业邮 轮游艇管 理公司 于 去 年成 立。隶 属于 海 航 集 团，该集团的其它子公司还包 括海南航空和大新华物流。它 是中国大 陆 首家 拥 有豪 华 游 艇的公司。

人物专访

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船运业家族企业薪火相传 赵式明女士（Sabrina Chao）以华光海运（Wah Kwong）新掌门人的身份立誓延续其父亲的事业发展

华光海运 去年刚刚度过60周岁生日的华光海 运的历史可追溯至上海。它是香港船 东协会的创始会员企业之一，目前以 全资或合伙形式共拥有28艘船舶， 其中包括四艘超大型油轮、一艘巴 拿马油轮、十艘小型加压液化石油 气油轮、四艘海峡 型散 货船、四艘 大灵便型运输船、两艘超巴拿马型 散货船、一艘巴拿马型散货船和一对 灵便型散货船。目前，该公司仅在上 海外高桥造船有限公司订购了一艘 超大型油轮，计划将于2013年6月交 付使用。赵式明女士于今年1月接任 公司主席一职，成为该船 运家族的 第三代掌门人。原Clarksons经纪人 TimHuxley现任公司首席执行官。

在

今 年1月担任香港华光海运 控 股 有 限 公司 主 席后 的 第 一 次 采 访 中，赵 式 明 警 告 说，2013年可能是船运低迷 中最萎靡的一年。 38岁的赵女士在接受我们全新的姐妹 出版物 Maritime CEO采访时表示： “2013年 是决定性的一年。”她又补充道： “许多人 会挺不过去。” 在最近一次的管理层调整中，赵式明接 替父亲赵世光(George），成为这家拥有60 年历史的船运公司的主席（chairman）。目 前该公司旗下船队共有28艘船。她的父亲 任总裁（president），不过将不再负责公司 的任何日常事务。 赵式明女士此次升任公司主席一职形式 大于内容，自从其父2010年末患病以来，实

际上赵女士在过去几年一直负责这家香港 公司的日常运营。 她11年前 加入公司，之前她曾就职于 怡富证券(Jardine Fleming）和普华永道 (PricewaterhouseCoopers），并在伦敦帝国理 工学院拿到学士学位。 赵女士和她父亲一样，制定的计划比较 保守，不希望公司发生重大改变。 赵女士介绍说： “我们将坚持长期商业 计划，致力于为客户提供一流的散货运输 服务。我们一直对交易方持谨慎态度，寻求 长期收入来源。在当前环境下，我们的核心 策略是管理风险、强化船舶管理体系，做 好准备利用机会。” 在其60年的发展历程中，华光海运经历 了许多起起伏伏。华光海运在20世纪80年 代的那次动荡尤其凶险，因此当船运业陷

管理风险、强化船舶管理体系、做好准备利用 机会，这些都是核心的策略

入困境时，该企业比以往任何时候都更加 谨慎行事。 就船运业目前经历的困境而言，赵女士 表示： “我从其中吸取的经验是，坚实的基 础、审慎的业务模式和出色的团队，是船运 企业克服绝大多数危机的关键所在。” 她所说的出色的团队，包括香港船运业 最负盛名、也最精明强干的Tim Huxley，他 曾是Clarkson的经纪人，现任华光海运首席 执行官。另外，公司董事会团队精诚团结， 能够为公司新任主席计划的投资想法提供 有力支持。 作为香港船东协会的创始会员企业之 一，华光海运一贯积极倡导将香港特别行 政区打造成顶尖的船运中心。三年前赵世 光因香港特区前任行政长官曾荫权对船运 业未予足够重视而大发雷霆的情景仍让人 记忆犹新。在这方面，赵式明继承了其父 的风格。 赵女士说： “我们的公司有幸创立于亚 洲的船运中心香港，经历过60个年头而长 盛不衰，我们找不到比香港更适合运营船 运企业的地方。我们不仅要发展壮大我们 自己的公司，更希望能够为整个香港船运 业的未来发展贡献一份力量。” 为此，这家船运公司于去年年底专门为庆 祝公司成立60周年而出版发行了一本内容丰 富的书，并将该书分发到香港的各所学校中。 公司新任掌门人赵式明女士深知企业的 根基所在以及家族船运企业发展延续性的 重要性。 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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中国应当加快逐步淘 汰老旧船舶的步伐，从 而促进航运业的重组

淘汰老旧船只的积 极倡导者 正如Katherine Si所了解到的那样，很少有人能够比河北远洋 (HOSCO）董事长高彦明更直言不讳地指出航运业的弊端

今

年恰逢河北远洋 （HOSCO） 董事长高彦明在这家船运公 司执掌帅印的第15个年头， 无论航运业兴旺还是衰退， 高彦明一直保持冷静的头脑，敢于从行业 整体利益的角度坦率直言。 河北远洋运输股份有限公司成立于1980 年，最初是中国远洋运输集团（Cosco）下属 的一个散货船部门，后因连年亏损而被剥 离出来。 在 河 北 省 的 要 求 下，高 彦 明 临 危 受 命。当 时，河北 远 洋 的 船 队 总 吨 数仅 为 64,000载重吨位，波罗的海干散货航运指 数（Baltic Dry Index）也只有780点。 高彦明在20世纪90年代后期阶段进行 了改革，在削减成本、精简机构和以最低 价购入船舶（当时一艘巴拿马型船舶的价 格不到200万美元）的工作上取得成功。

就像潮汐一样，河北远洋随着市场形势 的变化既有发展期也有紧缩期。在航运业 发展最繁荣的那几年，河北远洋旗下船队 的船舶数量多达170艘。 如果不考虑2010年稍纵即逝的虚假复 苏，航运业的下行趋势已经到了第5个年 头。从一开始，高彦明就看出航运业船舶 数量远远供大于求的弊病，他也一直是最 积极支持淘汰老旧船只的倡议者之一。在 这方面，他身体力行，率先从自己的企业做 起。河北远洋目前的船队规模已经减半， 其运营的不到70艘船舶中有35艘归企业自 有，公司已经将大量船舶回收利用，并且未 与很多租用的船只续约。因此，河北远洋自 有船舶的船龄都非常短，平均只有4年。 SinoShip从高彦明那里了解到，船运市场 目前仍在遭受一百多年来最严重的危机。 高彦明表示， “关键原因在于，船舶数量

目前全球船舶总吨数仍然比现有的实际需求多 出40%以上 18

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严重过剩，结果导致供需严重失衡。”高彦 明称， “目前全球船舶总吨数仍然比现有的 实际需求多出40%以上。” 他不赞成同行企业利用幻想当今造船厂 较低的新船价格从中获利的做法。因为这 只能加重市场的负担，使船东连一个喘息 的机会都没有。 “就算你这时候造的船能 给你带来一点利益，那你现存的船队怎么 办？现在不是船越多越好。千万要记住船的 供给和运价成反比关系，船越多，价越低。 而减少运力与市场成正比关系，运力减少 的越多，市场越好。千万记住：三三见九， 不如二五一十。特别是职业船东，千万不要 干这种蠢事了。”高彦明说道。 高彦明曾多次致信交通部部长杨传堂， 敦促政府出台更多政策支持，以增加报废 的 本国旧船 的 数 量，并 提高港口国控制 （Port State Control, PSC）的水平。 在其中的一封信中，高彦明提到： “中国 应当加快逐步淘汰老旧船舶的步伐，从而 促进航运业的重组。” 高彦明认为，政府应当出台相关政策以 鼓励淘汰老旧船舶，例如在一定时期对拆 卸老旧船舶免税。此外，他认为交通部还 应当缩短船舶的强制报废年限。 目前，油轮、散货船和集装箱船在中国 的强制报 废年限分别为31年、3 3年和3 4 年，因此中国是船舶使用年限最长的国家 之一。高彦明建议，应当将散货船和集装箱 船的报废年限缩短为27年，将油轮的报废 年限缩短为25年。 与此同时，高彦明还建议，为了保护长 江、珠江和渤海的安全和环境，政府应当 对进入中国内河和内海、船龄超过20年的 外国船只实施更严格的规定，此举在国外 同行看来难免有贸易保护主义之嫌。 高彦明告诉SinoShip： “有关部门已经开 始着手讨论这些问题，不过具体付诸实施 还有待时日。” 无 论 具 体 措 施 付 诸 实 施 还 要 等上 多 久，高彦明始终坚持奉行自己的理念。

河北远洋 河北远洋目前是中国第三大散货 船运输企业，最初于 1980 年成立 于河北省，后公司总部搬至中国香 港。该公司目前 拥有的船队约有 70 艘船舶。公司董事长高彦明在 过去 15 年一直执掌公司业务。

人物专访

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OOCL 东方 海外货柜 航 运有限公司 (OOCL)是香港最大的船 运公司。 公司历史可追溯至1947年。随着董 立均于去年被任命为首席执行官， 公司现 已 步入 新 的发 展 纪 元，由 董氏家 族 第三代传人 担任公司掌 舵人。OOCL去年集装箱的运输量 达到522万标准箱，比2011年增加 3.7%。年收入增长 6.7%，达到 59 亿美元。Alphaliner 将 OOCL 排名 为世界第 11 大船运公司。

箱的运输量达到267万标准箱，收入达到 20.9亿美元。尽管其它企业仍深陷赤字，但 OOCL仍保持了盈利增长。 董立均说： “最为重要的是，除了需要在 单艘运输船这一层面采取有效的成本控制 措施，运力部署严加控制外，还要能够保 持可持续发展的运费率，这从整个行业层 面来说也是必须的，能够为大家重建更加 稳定、更加健康的商业环境。” 去年，董立均从首席运营官荣任OOCL 的 首 席 执 行 官。董 立 均 曾 在 集 团 内 担 任多 个职位，包括在19 9 3–19 9 8 年间担 任 O O C L 冷 藏 箱贸 易主 管。他曾为 追 求 其 它 兴 趣 而 短 暂 离 开 此 家 族 企 业，在 此 期间 他曾晋 升为 港龙 航 空 有 限 公司 （Hong Kong Dragon Airlines）的首席运 编辑Sam Chambers采访东方海外货柜航运有限公司老板 营官。他于2006年重新回归此集团，并于 年 二 月，香 港 东 方 海 外 货 署，避免低效使用运力，满足客户需求，否 2009年1月被任命为OOCL的首席运营官。 他是集团前任主席董建华（CH Tung）的长 柜 航 运 有 限 公 司（O r i e n t 则这个脆弱的行业可能将深陷赤字泥潭。 但这不同于OOCL曾经遭受的赤字状况。 子，董建华曾在香港于1997年回归中国后 O ver s e a s C ont a i ner Li ne, O O C L）首席执 行官 董 立均 尽管2 012年最 后一 个季度形势艰 难，但 担任香港特别行政区首任行政长官。 董立均成为这家香港最大航运企业的 （Andy Tung）接受了我们的全新姐 妹刊 OOCL本年度的收入和利润提升都足以让 第三代掌门人，这家企业的历史可追溯到 Maritime CEO （www.maritime-ceo.com） 绝大多数同行企业艳羡不已。 OOCL去年集装箱的运输量达到522万 1947年，当时富有传奇色彩的企业所有人 的采访。在采访中，他总结了集装箱行业在 标准箱，比2011年增加3.7%。年收入增长 董浩云（CY Tung）开始经营上海至美国的 2013年面临的挑战。 这位东方海外的首席执行官以Maritime 6.7%，达到59亿美元。亚洲境内和亚洲与 船运业务。 集团总裁总结说“持续的运力过剩”将 CEO为平台，呼吁同行业者在今年调整部 澳大利亚之间的贸易往来贡献最大，集装 继续“在2013年笼罩该行业”，因此许多承 运商“都预计会在调整其产品结构和优化 航线利用方面面临巨大挑战”。

董立均敦促承运商遵守纪律

今

持续的运力过剩在2013年将继续笼罩行业

有些人报道新闻，而Maritime CEO制造新闻 以独特视角了解航运和海工行业掌舵人的内心世界 ASM 的全新全球旗舰出版物

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散杂货运输

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非洲正发展成为中国排名第一的贸易伙伴

聚焦非洲 Jason Jiang详述中国领先的散杂货运输公司

对

于参与散杂货和项目货运输 的企业而言，2012年毫无疑 问是困难重重的一年。尽管 如此，中国与非洲之间不断增 加的庞大贸易额仍使人们感到一丝慰藉。 中国商务部最近指出，非洲不久将超过 欧盟和美国成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。 “中国公司越来越多地被鼓励进行海 外投资，现在不仅仅是中国铝业和中兴通 讯等大型公司，而且越来越多的中型企业 也参与其中”，CLC主席Bo Drewsen评论 说。CLC代表China Logistics Club（中国物 流联盟）。该项目网络于一年前成立。 非洲已成为中国承包商的巨大市场，尤 其是在道路、电厂、机场、铁路和风力发电 厂建筑方面，更是如此。通过以优惠条款 向非洲国家提供软贷款，中国得以更加便 利地获取这片大陆上广眸的矿产财富。 非洲的基础建设需求依然十分庞大，中 国承包商在投标中崭露头角。例如，国际 金融公司认为，为了开采计划中的非洲铁 矿项目，非洲大陆需要超过520亿美元修 建4,000公里的铁路。国际金融公司预计， 仅几内亚一个国家就需要高达136亿美元 修建两条铁路和一个港口。 南美洲对于中国企业而言是另一个新 兴市场。 “这一切都意味着从中国到非洲和南美 洲的项目货物运输需求十分庞大”，CLC的 Drewsen说。 船东们采用更加大型的散杂货运输吨 位货轮前往非洲，以满足这一特殊需求。 单 独一 个项目就 需 要约10 0万载 货吨以

运载 所有设备和采矿货车、铁 路车 辆、 卧车、工地活动房，供中国铝业/力拓集团 在 几内亚西芒杜开展的大 型项目使 用。 最 近，有约 6 0 0 节铁 路车 辆 用五 艘 共 计 12,000吨的租船从中国运送至塞拉利昂的 铁矿石项目地点。 “谈 到采购 机 械、钢铁、基 础建 设 设 备，不仅 外国公司，甚至中国承包商也认 为，中国在2013年的表现将继续如同一条 跨洋猛龙”，Drewsen说。

国内情况概览 对于国内的情况，BBC Chartering（上海） 运营总监Juergen Kuntz指出，长江沿岸较 小型的港口在招揽 项目货物运输方面 更 加积极。 “其中的一部分港口出现拥挤情况”， Kuntz说， “这表明它们对散杂货物的周转 能力不足，在这一方面仍存在改善空间”。 “ 我 们 看 到 我 们 的 散 杂 货 运 业 务在 2 01 2 年的表 现 较 上一年 略 差”，中国与 波 兰的合资航 运公司中波轮船股份公司 (Chipolbrok)的一位发言人评论说。 “更高 的燃料价格和运营成本，以及更加激烈的 市场竞争已经为我们带来了一些挑战。但 是，在日益增多的海工项目和大型建造项 目的刺激下，项目货物和机械货物的运输 需求依然十分强劲”。 激烈的市场竞争早已在BBC Kuntz的意 料之中。 “我们预计市场仍会继续保持激烈竞 争状态。这是买方的市场，毫无疑问地以 价格为驱动”，他说。 “与此同时，我们看

到由于运营商和承 运商经常无法适应这 种快节奏的变化，而导致大量货物被循环 转运”。 此 外，来自Rick mers大 连办事处的一 位代表告诉 SinoShip： “尽管航运市场总 体低 迷，但也 有一 些 散 杂 货运 业 务在去 年取得了一定的发 展。大 连 港正在 进 行 的散杂货泊位扩建项目将提升该港口的 处理能力并改善运营情况。在去年，我们 已看到运往包括印度在内的南亚国家的 项目货运和大 型机械运输业务呈现出良 好趋势”。 在总结中，CLC的Drewsen对当地的项 目货运公司提出了一些建议。中国公司需 要建 立 更 广泛的 海 外影 响，D r e w s e n 敦 促说， “ 中国 运 输 企 业 需 要 在 国 际 市 场 站 稳 脚跟”，D r ew s e n说。“他们长期缺 乏 对这个问题的认识，而这 正是 最 薄 弱的 环节”。

CLC项目 CLC 项目是 一个于一年前成立的 网络，目前拥有84名会员，他们一 般为中小型公司。CLC Projects在 中国的每个省份和海外的每个国 家仅挑选一名会员。该组织仍在积 极地从中国的33个省份中寻找更 多会员。 CLC 代表China Logistics Club（中国物流联盟）。

Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 专题

建筑机械产能过剩 中国正在生产超过国内需求的过量建筑设备。不断增长的出口将成为 关键因素

有

升 必 有 跌 。中国 房 地 产 行 业去 年 终于放 慢了增 速 。 在 此 之 前，中国 的 建 筑 机 械 行业 度 过了高歌猛 进的 十年。但国内需求在2012年大幅下滑，转 瞬间受 到产能 过 剩的侵 袭，中国其它的 许多 行业均遭 遇了相似的境况，尤其是 造船业。 建筑机械长期以来一直是中国散杂货 运业务的中流砥柱。根 据中国建 筑机械 协 会的调 查，中国建 筑机 械 行业的产能 达到每年400,000台，超过了全球的需求 总和。该 行业13家主 要 公司的总收 入在 2012年下降超过30%。 “现在是中国建筑机械行业的一个重 要转折点”，大型国有建筑机械制造商广 西柳工集团总 裁王晓华说。王晓华 还认 为，过去十 年 令人 难以置信的 增长将不 会再现。 相 较 于 王 晓 华，三 一重 工 总 裁 向 文 波 对市场的看法则比较 乐观，他认为市

场 低 迷的情况不会持 续太 久，预计将于 2 013 年第二季度恢 复 正常，并可能在全 年实现10%的增长。 为应对市场低迷的情况，建筑机械制 造商们已开始关注于出口市场。中国的建 筑机械 行业在2 012年前11个月的出口总 额达到171.5亿美元，同比增长18.4%。印 度、东南亚、俄罗斯和拉丁美洲是最大的 销售区域。 “行业产能过剩是一个毫无争议的事 实，我们 要 做 的是 优化自身产品和 扩大 出口市场”，中国工程机械协会挖掘机分 会秘书长李宏宝说。 三一集团一直 是中国最活跃的机械出 口商之一。其 2 012 年的出口增长率几乎 翻了一 倍。该 集团去 年 获得了向所 有 南 非港口供应港口设备的5年特许权。三一 集团还与中国海洋石油总公司(CNO O C) 合作开发和制造用于石油勘探的海洋工 程设备。 中国的挖掘机市场被日本和韩国企业

《中国十亿城民》 这是 S i no S h ip的 好友 To m Miller所著的一本新书，它为 读 者 营 造 出一种 令人惊 叹 的阅读体验，并为从事项目 船运行业的每个人带来了希 望。 到2 0 3 0 年，中国的城市 人口将达 到10 亿，这相当 于全 球八分之一的人口， 居住于北京的M il ler在其 于 1月份 出 版 的《中国 十 亿城民》(China’s Urban Billion)中写道。 在过去的30年中，中国的城市人口增

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加了5亿人，到2030年有 望进一步增加3亿人。 “与 前任 领 导班 子相 比，当前由新任总理李克 强率领的领导班 子更 热 衷于城市发展”，Miller指 出。“他 们 认 为，发 展 繁 荣 的 大 城 市 将 推 升国内 需 求，尤其是 居民消费。 李克强承诺加快城市化进 程，并将改革中国的户籍制 度。为充分 释放 城 市化 的 经 济潜力，他认为中国必须将 农民工转变为真正的城市市民。”

支配，约25%的挖掘机需要进口，主要来 自日本的小松、日立公司以及韩国的斗山 和现代公司。日立 集团目前正 斥资4 0 亿 元人民币在中国安徽省合肥市建 造其最 大 的制造 基 地。到2 014 年竣 工 时，这个 新的制造基地及现有制造基地可实现每 年60,000台挖掘机的产量。 凭 借徐 工集团、卡 特 彼勒、小 松 公司 和 斗山公司等 多 家领 先 的 制造商，江 苏 已成 为中国领先的建 筑机械出口省份之 一。 卡特彼勒计划将其在中国的挖掘机产 量扩大40 0%，这将在未来数年内将液压 挖掘机的产量提高80%。 “我们将中国视为一 个 长期市场，希 望扩大在这里的经营规模，当然，我们也 在不断进行投资，以满足 未来2 0或3 0 年 的实 际 需 求，卡 特 彼 勒 从中国向美国的 出口额在过去七年已增长了一倍以上”， 卡特彼勒首席执行官Doug Oberhelman 说。 另一家制造商徐工集团位于徐州，其 价值122亿人民币的扩建项目已于2012年 投入运营。集团总裁王民说，徐工集团将 关注于大吨位和高技 术含 量的产品，以 提升在国际市场的竞争力。

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中国出口的新曙光 Sam Chambers评估中国的贸易额，指出应重视新的增长领域和不断变化的产品组合

毫

无疑问，中国今年的出口情况 极具挑战。开发新市场和调 整产品组合对于应对需求下 滑至关重要。 前任商务部长及备受尊敬的中国商务 专家魏建国目前担任中国国际经济交流中 心副主席兼秘书长，他在今年二月份警告 说： “我担心中国今年的外贸前景将比2012 年更具挑战性。” 中国的对外贸易在2012年同比增长6.2% ，低于预期10%的目标，与2011年22.5%的 快速增长形成强烈对比。 受到全球金融危机的影响，2012年的出 口额同比增长7.9%，这是除2009年外近十 年来的最低增速。 官方数据表明，2012年的出口额约相当 于中国GDP的25%。

国务院参事室研究员姚景源认为，中国 的制造商应大幅调整出口业务。 “鉴于国内日益高涨的成本以及成本更 低的周边国家发起的激烈竞争，我们现在 正处于转变出口模式、并将出口增长的下行 压力转变为重组动力的关键时期。”他说。 2013年1月的最新贸易数字透露出令人 振奋的消息—贸易额快速增长，但分析师 却警告说，仅凭一个月的贸易数字而认为

48.6 中国一月份向东南亚的 出口额同比增长

出现了真正的逆转显然为时尚早。 中国出口额较上一年增长25%，这是自 2011年4月以来的最快增速，较去年12月份 的14.1%也有大幅提升。 野村证券经济师张智威指出： “这一强 劲的出口数据产生于中国农历新年的节日 效应，因此无法充分说明问题。这一数据 表明，国外和国内需求均十分强劲，这也有 力地支撑了我们认为经济在上半年进入周 期性恢复期的观点。”

新的贸易推动力 Transport Trackers创始人Charles De Trenck 曾写道，北京决定在国内推动建立更多自 由贸易区。 “ 中 国 需 要 开 展 更 多 的 贸 易”，D e Trenck指出。 “经过15-20年的高速增长 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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方市场的新订单。汇丰银行大中华区 首席经济学家屈宏斌认为，国内需 求将推动大部分的制造业复苏， “ 经济学家Paul French对中 尽管外部需求仍不冷不热，但由内 国制造业转型的看法 需推动的复苏过程有可能为中国 在未来数月内增添持续恢复的动 中国仍然 是一个制造中心。但却逐 力。” 渐从为他国制造而转变到为本国制 在中国制造业成本（工资、地 造。汇丰银行近期所做的一份调查 租、分销等）急速攀升的时期， 表明，今年一月份，中国的制造活动 应牢记至关重要的一点，那就是 以两年来最快的速度增长。这份报 这 种上 升 趋 势 会自然 告还通过更多证据表明， 而然地导致业已严重高 世界第二大经济体正在走 涨的油价触及利润底 出其制造业的低迷期。 2012 年的中国生产经济结构 线。2013年3月的基准油 尽管出口制造仍占制造 行业 占实际GDP百分比(%) 同比增长率 (%) 价上升约50%，某些省份 业的很大比重，但针对国内 农业 10 4.3 制造业的工资每年以20% 市场的货物产量也在迅速增 工业 47 10.3 的速率攀升，随着制造商 长。用于支持生产的商品及 服务业 43 9.4 产能的恢 复，这些都 在不 生产所需的能源在2012年产 资料来源：中国国家统计局 断挤压他们的利润。 量大增，例如钢铁产量（同比

被挤压的利润

增长超过11.7%）、有色金属产量（同比增 长超过14%）和水泥产量（同比增长超过 11.5%）均表现出强劲的增长态势。 食品生产正逐渐成为整个生产行业中 的关键领域。中国在出口食品和饮料的同 时也致力于为国内市场制造更多此类产 品，以抑制通货膨胀，确保城市人口的食 品安全。 但 大 多 数 生 产是 之前订单的延 续， 而没有来自于仍处于经济困境的主要西

市场上可能出现合 并，有些制造商甚至 会退出市场，在此之 前竞争的势头仍会非 常激烈

后，目前的出口增长率已经放缓，中国正在 转向其历来具 有较少控制力的供应链环 节。” 他说，这不仅仅是指上海宣布其对新贸 易区的扩展决心。 “这 还是 一 个 长期的过 程”，他 继 续 说， “上海和深圳将通过建立‘小香港’而 朝着全面服务贸易中心的地位前进。” 24

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上海自由贸易区的推行将对进入上海自 由港的进口贸易实行零关税待遇。 De Trenck认为， “最终，这是上海和全 中国已有的所有自由贸易区顺理成章的扩 展。”并补充说： “不过，虽然上海没有人民 币自由兑换和开放的资本账户这些优势， 但它正在力争从香港夺回更多在1949年之 前本属于自己的地位—当时上海是亚洲首

屈一指的贸易和金融中心。” 中国过去曾拥有超过15%的集装箱贸易 增长率。 “该数字最近已降低一半，这毫无 疑问引起了领导者的深刻思考，尽管每个 人都知道贸易增长率正在放缓。事实上， 看到个位数的港口贸易增长率会让人心生 不快”，这位居住于香港且备受尊敬的分析 师在一月份的一篇报道中如此写道。 SinoShip的经济师Paul French认为： “在 经过30年的繁荣发展后进行一次这样的强 制性短暂调整以理顺产业链也未尝不是一 个好主意，这将能确保中国凭借国内市场 的增长获取更多资本，还能为将来的出口 反弹做好更充分的准备”。 由于欧盟和美国的经济情况仍处于混乱 状态，北京去年呼吁出口商将注意力转向发 展中国家和新兴市场的做法似乎已经奏效。 海关 数 据 表明，中国去年对欧 盟的出 口额较 上一年下降6.2%。但 对东南亚的 出口额却增加了20.1%，对俄罗斯增加了 13. 2 %，对南非 增加了14.7%，远 远领先 于同期的总体增长水平。而这种情况似乎 仅在今年一月份有所体现，例如，对东南 亚的出口额较2012年1月实现了令人惊叹 的48.6%的增长，价值201亿美元。中国的 产品组合及其 海外市场明显处于动荡状 态，众多货主和航运公司不得不努力关注 这些可能出现的震撼性转变。

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网络零售销售额跳跃式增长 EngenTham采访中国领先电子商务公司之一的联合创办人

沃

成本。” 尔玛亚洲区总裁兼首席执行 公司还与30家第三方物流公司建立了合 官Scott Price在去年11月于香 作伙伴关系。 港举行的第二届亚洲物流及 “出于经济方面的原因，我们仅在订单 航运大会上的发言中，重点论 数量达到一定程度时才会考虑让自己的物 述了中国的电子商务行业。据《中国互联网 流服务进入一座城市”，于刚说。 观察》(China Internet Watch)的消息称，中国 电商浪潮1号店首席执行官兼联合创办人于刚 公 司 未 来 将 扩 大 自己 的 海 外 进 口业 今年的网络零售额有望达到1770亿美元， 务。 “我们是首家获得直接进口许可的电 并预计该数字到2016年将达到4580亿美 子商务公司。因此，我们已经进口了少数集 立了成功的物流体系。 元，超过目前排名第一的美国（见图表）。 “我们70%的物流业务均在内部处理” 装箱的食物和饮料，比如饼干、谷类食品 与技术相比，物流依然是中国电子商务 “我们拥有一支由90多人组成的 和红酒，我们计划继续扩大进口业务，增 行业的最大瓶颈，Price说。缺乏高效可靠 ，于刚说。 的到户交付是这个全 球增长速度最快的 专业物流团队，他们帮助我们降低了30%的 加进口货物的数量”，于刚说。 要改善供应链仍有很多 电子商务市场所面临的最大 工作要做，这位电子商务公 问题。 司的老板说。 去年10月，沃尔玛将其在 “销售淡季和旺季 均存 1号店的股份增加至51%，1 美国与中国的电子商务销售额（十亿美元） 在困难”，于刚说。 “对于电 号店是中国快速增长的一家 子商务而言， 销售并不像传 电子商务公司。 500 统零售那样顺畅。”于刚以 作 为“ 德 勤 2 0 1 2 年 高 每年11月11日的光棍节为例 科 技 高 成长 5 0 0 强 企 业” 400 进行了说明，从利润角度而 （一项授 予 增 长 速 度 最 快 言，这是电子商务日历中最 的全球公司的嘉奖）排名第 大的一场营销活动。 一的企业，1号店在20 09至 300 “我们的订单会在 数 天 2 01 2 年 实 现了令人惊 奇的 内达到正常水平的10倍”， 19,218%的增长率。这家中 他边计算边说。 “这毫无疑 国网络零售商成 立于2 0 0 8 200 问是很难消化的，我们无法 年，最初仅有两名员工，目 让员工或系统始终准备着处 前拥有6,000多名员工。 100 理10倍数量的订单，这会造 1号店的首席执 行官 成巨大的浪费。因此，这充 兼 联 合 创 办人于 刚 告 诉 满挑战”，于刚承认。尽管如 SinoShip，他的公司目前正 0 此，由于所有预测均认为未 借助 沃 尔玛的全 球采购 能 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 来数年内网络销售额将翻倍 力开展大量采购业务。 增长，因此不得不扩大员工 沃尔玛在某 些方面可能 资料来源：《中国互联网观察》， 《网络零售商》 规模。 处于领先地位，但1号店已建

处在中国出口性质变动中的利丰集团 中国的 出口在性质和目标市场方面均在 发生变化。利丰发展(中国)有限公司副总 裁林至颖表示，随着欧美市场需求的下 滑，新兴市场将是品牌和零售商的主要发 展阵地。 “中国的出口公司应更加关注于新兴市 场（例如巴西）的采购需求”，林至颖说。 尽管中国的成本优势受到包括越南、 印尼和孟加拉国在内的其它亚洲国家的挑

战，但中国当地的出口公司可凭借更丰富 的出口经验而保持自身的竞争优势，并维 持世界主要采购市场的地位，林至颖称。 “我们已根据客户更高的采购要求进 行了快速调整”，林透露说。

以前，贸易公司仅负责采购货物，但现 在他们还要负责更具增值性的采购服务， 包括产品设计、物流和质量控制。 目前，利丰集团70%的采购业务为服 装，30%为日用百货和快速消费品。

中国的出口公司应更加关注新兴市场的采 购需求 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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双重问题

冷冽的隆冬

中国不规则发展的船舶修理业非常分散，并且过度集中于低端船 只，Katherine Si如是说道

中

国海事方面的困局不仅限于 航运和造船领域。远远不止于 此。想想处于困境中的中国船 舶修理行业就知道了。 从表面上 来看，船舶修理在收 入 上似 乎应该比较稳定。全 球船队数 量大 约有 48,000艘，相当于16亿载重吨，船舶修理业 与造船市场相比周期性较弱。按照强制船 舶每五年进一次干船坞来计算，每年能够 产生9,000艘船或3亿载重吨的潜在市场。 不过，无论在国内还是在国外，船舶修 理业的竞争都异常激烈，并且船东们总是 想方设法削减成本。在此情况之下，中国 本土的船舶修理业陷入了一位公司高管所 称的“隆冬腊月”。 这样激烈的竞争对精明的船东来说可 是个好消息。 挪威的威 尔森船 舶服务有限 公司 (Wilhelmsen Ships Service）东北亚商务 总监Paul Rogers评论说： “就国际竞争而

26

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言，中国在 劳 动力资源供 给方面具 有优 势，不过，国内劳动力的供应过于均衡，多 家修船厂争夺有限的几家客户，不仅造成 成本压力，更导致利润缩减— 这对于那 些能够价比三家的精明的船东来说可是个 好消息。” 就目前已有的统计数据表明，中国2012 年前9个月的船舶修理交易额共计87亿元 人民币，比上一年度减少了17%。对业界主

激烈竞争对精明的船 东来说是个好消息 流公司的一项民意测验结果表明，绝大多 数公司都未能达成年度财务目标，业绩比 2011年更糟糕。SinoShip一年前做了一项类 似的调查，发现绝大多数受访企业已经出 现亏损。

在SinoShip今年联系的中国主要的船舶修 理企业中，80%以上的企业对未来两到三 年的前景并不看好。 中海工业（上海浦东）有限公司(China Shipping Industry Pudong）副总经理林利斌 将这种严峻形势形容为“冷冽的隆冬”。 舟山万 邦永 跃 船 舶修 造有限 公司 (Zhoushan IMC-Yongyue Shipyard & Engineering）是一家经验丰富的合资船舶 制造和修理企业，位居中国前十大船舶修 理企业之列，拥有舟山最大的干船坞。这 家企业目前也像其他同行企业一样深陷困 境。舟山万邦永跃船舶修造有限公司事务 部外联中心主任王元海说： “目前产值锐 减，不仅我们企业这样，整个船舶修理行 业都是如此。” 王元海认为，目前中国的船舶修理费用 在亚洲主要船舶修理国家中是最低的，甚 至比泰国和越南还要低。 他感叹说： “我们现在修理船只收的都 是成本价，不亏本就不错了。” 与其他造船企业的想法相同，王元海认 为船舶修理企业应该把目标定位为价格更 昂贵的船舶，不过，要做到这一点，船舶修 理企业必须投资采用更先进的技术。 王元海的想法与“十二五”计划不谋而 合，该计划倡导中国船舶修理企业瞄准更

修船

中国的修船厂需要抓 住海工市场 高端的船舶和海工船舶，并采用更加绿色 环保的技术。 上 海 船厂船 舶 有限 公司( S h a n g h a i Shipyard）2012年共修理了85艘船，与2011 年的数量大致相当，不过利润与2011年相 比却大幅下滑。在此情况下，公司领导班子 计划把工作重点放在赢得更多高端船舶 的修理任务上。 中远船务(Cosco Shipyard)总工程师詹树 明认为，船舶运价一蹶不振的大环境和船 舶修理的萧条期密切相关。中远船务在全 国范围内经营了多家船舶修理厂。据詹树 明介绍，深受亏损困扰的船东们正在削减 船舶维修的计划，许多老旧的油轮没有送 去翻修一新，而是直接报废。

海工市场带来脱困之机 不过，中国船协 修 船分 会会 长 王宇航认 为“寒冬中蕴含着机遇”。 据王会 长介绍，监管机构和船级社 对 航运业的安全和环境问题越来越关注， 有些方面的规定只会变得越来越严格。王 会长认为，这会在未来几年带来大量的维

82% 的中国修船厂都处于亏损状 态，据我们的调查显示

修工作。 与此类似的是，海工领域显然是一个巨 大的增长市场，这是中国船舶修理企业不 容错过的良机。 的确如此，中海工业（上海浦东）有限公 司的领导团队非常认同这种看法。这家上海 船厂的一位市场部负责人表示： “目前，我 们正在考察和开发海工市场。我们希望能够 在航运业不景气的时候进入该市场。” 行业巨头友联船厂（蛇口）有限公司就 是这么做的，就业务量而言它堪称中国最 忙碌的船厂。该船厂已经为中海油服(China Offshore Services, Ltd, COSL）完成了近海 油田钻井平台“南海8号”的维修和改造工 作。 “南海8号”是友联船厂（蛇口）有限公 司去年完成修理和改造工作的六座近海油 田钻井平台之一，在近海油田业务方面一 举登顶，使企业得以缩减散货船修理等利 润相对微薄的业务。凭借其巨大的规模优 势，友联船厂（蛇口）有限公司去年平均每 天在厂在修船舶达到17到18艘。 友联船厂有关人士表示： “我确信有很 多船舶修理企业都热切希望进入海工市 场，不过，这一领域需要高额投资和先进 的技术。”

整合乃大势所趋 威尔森船舶服务有限公司的Rogers认为， 中国船舶修造企业要想生存下去，需要改 变的不只是它们的业务模式。他表示： “这 些企业必须经历更进一步的整合，存活下 来的船舶修理企业会更努力地向国外客户 推介它们的业务。” 他介绍说，在此情况下，整合乃大势所 趋，需要由此来实现优胜劣汰和提升行业 的整体形象。Rogers若有所思地说： “我们 真想看看船舶修造企业采取必要变革的

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速度到底有多快，能够让船东放心让它们 去维修结构越来越复杂、吨位越来越大的 船舶，这一定会很有趣。” 目前，海外业 务收 入占当前总收 入的 70%，而剩余的收入部分来自利润相对微 薄的国内市场。正如 Rogers 所说的那样， 在形势尚不明朗的情况下，企业竞争必将 是一场“恶战”。 与报道篇幅远远超过自己的中国航运 业一样，中国船舶修理业到2015年将发生 翻天覆地的变化。

福建华东船厂 福建华东船厂于2012年6月开业，是 全球最大的船厂之一，位于天然深水 良港—福建省罗源湾。福建华东船 厂每年可修理200艘船舶，船舶吨位 从20,000载重吨到300,000载重吨不 限。福建华东船厂是福建华荣海运 集团股份有限公司所属企业，占地面 积超过800,000平方米，拥有三个干 船坞，吨位从100,000到400,000载重 吨不等，还有一个50,000载重吨的下 水船台和七个 舾装泊位。该船厂已 经与运力为13,60 0标准箱的集装箱 船打过交道，现在正在大力向台湾船 东推介业务。该船厂的第二阶段开发 工作正在进行当中，工作重点放在海 工市场。

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■ ■ ■ 枢纽：上海

持久的吸引力

波 罗的 海 和国际 海 事 公 会（Baltic and International Maritime Council, BIMCO）是 代 表 航 运 企 业 的国际 航 运 协 会，刚刚于2月份在上海成立在 在吸引外商直接投资方面，上海继续遥遥领先于中 华的首个办事处。该协会之所 国其它地区。Engen Tham解释其中原由 以选择在上海开设自己的首个 在华办事机构，是因为上海在 据 官 方 数 据显示，2012年中 注的竞争优势。 “北京的政府机构活动频繁， 航运方面具有诸多优势。 国吸引的外商直接投资额减少 “ 我 们 选 择 上 海 ，很 重 要 了3.7%。在此情况下，这一全球 如果想与大型国有船运企业做 第二大经济体 在今 年1月份吸 生意，把总部设在北京非常重 的 一 个原 因是 我 们 与上 海 海 要，正因为如此，许多经纪公 事大学 ( S h a n g h a i M a r it i m e 引外商投资的能力令人堪忧。 责难声纷至沓来，评论家纷 司都 把 主 要 办 事 机 构 设在 北 University,SM U）关系非常密 纷将罪魁祸首归结为中国的成 京。不过，对于我们这样的咨 切。我们看到，上海为了将自己 本日益增长以及人民币的不断 询公司来说，北京并不完全适 打造成 航 运中心，已经 采取了 合我们。我们的客户主要是外 诸多举措，并且上海在货运吞 升值。 尽管如此，在外商直接投资 国船运企业，这些企业的在华 吐量方面已经雄居世界最大的 低迷的大环境下，2012年上海 总部主 要是在 上海，因此，我 港口。最后同样重要的一个原 外商直接投资额的增幅达到了 们的主 要 办 事 机 构 也设 在 上 因是，上海市政府为我们提供 20.5%。虽然上海同样存在成 海。”德 鲁里航 运咨询公司首 了大力支持，这也 对 我们决 定 本高企和人民币升 值的问题， 席中国代表刘倩文(Tina Liu） 在上海建立办事处起到了关键 的影响作用。”BI MCO上海中 不过踌躇满志的上海市政府推 如是说。 许 多 外资企 业都 持相同的 心的总经理庄炜如是说。 行了一系列有利于商贸发展的 上 海 市 政 府 吸引 外商 投 资 政策，继续成功吸引全球各地 观点。作为刚刚进入上海物流 中心的外资企业之一，联邦快 并不仅限于口头上的说辞，更 的企业来沪投资。 当航运企业进入中国市场为 递(FedEx Express）于去年10月 是提供了诸多优惠措施。德鲁 在华总部选址时，北京和上海 投资1亿美元在上海国际机场 里航运咨询公司在华的首家办 通常是最有竞争力的两座城市。 建设全新的上海国际快件和货 事机构设在上海的虹口区，浦 德鲁里航运咨询公司认为，上 运中心。该中心计划将于2017 东 市 政 府正 想办 法在 这 里 建 设航运中心。德鲁里航运咨询 海拥有海外商业船运活动所关 年对外开放。 公司首席中国代表刘倩文介绍 说： “我们之所以把办事处选 址在虹口区，是因为这里的公 司税比其它地方都要低，并且 我们的客户都分布在此处周边 的几个区中。” 不仅如此，为了切实吸引外

上海正在力争从香港那里夺回更 多在 1949 年之前本属于自己的地 位—当时上海是亚洲首屈一指的贸 易和金融中心

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商投资，上海市在去年还特别 推出其它多项措施。其中一项 举 措 就 是 上海 投资 促 进 机 构 联席会议(Shanghai Investment Promotion Partnership），该会 议于去年5月成立，旨在促进中 国大 陆 和 外资企 业 之 间的 投 资。如今，上海投资促 进机构 联席会议的会员已经有26个本 地合作伙伴和73家外资企业。 虽然上海迄今为止在吸引外 商投资方面大获成功，但它并 未止步不前。上海目前正在规 划计划于2013年对外开放的自 由贸易试 验区— 届时 货物可 在该区域内自由出入，无需受 海关监管。该项规划目前正在 申请政府有关部门审批，一旦 获准开放，这将是中国大陆首 个自由贸易试 验区。人民日报 调查采访的分析师们都对此举 赞不绝口，将其称之为中国未 来十年改革的重要驱动力。 Transpor t Trackers创始人 Charles De Trenck表示： “最 终，这是上海和全中国已有的 所有自由贸易区顺理成章的扩 展。不过，虽然上海没有可自由 兑换的人民币和开放的资本账 户这些优势，不过它正在力争 从香港那里夺回更多在1949年 之前 本属于自己的地位—当 时上海是亚洲首屈一指的贸易 和金融中心。” 上海将继续竭尽全力吸引那 些希望获得最佳礼遇和最大投 资回报的投资者来沪投资。

枢纽：台北

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经济一体化 Joshua Samuel Brown报道了一系列旨在加大海峡两岸投资力度的措施

中远集团在高雄 中国大型国有航运公司正在投资台湾主要港口

台 湾 海 峡 最狭窄处仅宽130 公里。有证据表明，直到2013 年，60多年来海峡两岸的紧张 关系并未有太大改善。从经济 角度 来说，中国大陆和台湾可 谓是休戚与共，密切程度前所 未有。 台湾的银行刚开始允许其客 户使用中国大陆严格控制的人 民币进行存款、获取贷款和购 买债券。 台湾方面正在考虑充分利用 其与中国大陆每年1,500亿美元 的贸易额，以此作为平台将自身 转变为类似香港的人民币离岸 交易中心。 类似的货币管理条例也已在 中国大陆生效。 此外，中国大陆还通过人民 币合格境 外 机 构 投资 者 计 划 （Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program） 向台湾投资者开放了证券和期 货市场。 中国大陆证券监管机构正在 向持有离岸人民币存款的台湾 机构投资者开放A股市场。 人民币合格境外机构投资者 （即“RQFII”）的投资额度为 1,000亿元人民币。

R Q F I I 试 点计 划 在《经 济 合 作 框 架 协议》（E c o n o m i c Cooperation Framework Agreement）范围内，该协议由中 国大陆和台湾签订，旨在降低

Shipping Terminal Development） 在香港组成三方合资公司，并 在一笔具有里程碑意义的投资 中，该合资公司购买了台湾阳明 海运（Yang Ming）位于高雄的

就中国大陆对台湾的投资而言，投 资规模最大的领域莫过于航运业 关税和和商业壁垒以及加强两 岸金融关系。 台湾方面还计划放宽对大陆 企业在台湾证券交易所首次公 开募股（IPO）的要求。 此外，由于台湾方面于去年 允许中国两大银行即中国交通 银行和中国银行在台建立分行， 所以中国企业在台发展将更为 顺利。

集装箱码头30%的股份，出资 额为1.35亿美元。 这 在 持 续回暖 的两岸关 系 中堪称重大进展，各方早在几 年前就已经开始酝酿此事。这 家 三 方合 资 企 业中的 每 一方 都将有效持有高明货柜码 头股份有限公司（Kao Ming Terminal）10%的股份。 目 前，高 明 货 柜 码 头 股 份 有限公司的股 东结构为：阳明 海运占60%，上述三方合资企 航运业务发展 当谈到大陆在台投资时，投资 业占30%，美国货柜码头公司 额最大的领域 莫过于航运业。 （Ports America Group）占10%。 去年12月，招商局国际有限公 高明集装箱码头计划建造四个 司（China Merchants Holdings 10万载重吨集装箱泊位。建成 （International））、中远太平洋 之后，该码头的年吞吐量将突 有限公司（Cosco Pacific）和中 破280万标准箱。 这笔 交 易既是大 陆企 业在 海 码头发 展有限公司（Ch i na

台的最大规模投资，也是大陆 在台湾的第一笔基础设施项目 投资。 高雄2012年共处理978万标 准箱货物，同比增长1.5%。 为吸引日益增多的中国大陆 旅游度假游客，高雄的邮轮码 头正在进行大规模升级。由于 乘邮轮来台旅游的游客人数— 特别是来自大陆的游客人数— 飞速增长，基隆和高雄的邮轮 设施正在进行整修，整修费用 达3.6亿美元。 为进一步吸引大陆游客乘邮 轮来台旅游，台湾从今年1月1日 开始为大陆游客签发双入境许 可证，以鼓励大陆游客乘坐邮 轮进出台湾。 该双入境许可证允许首先游 客搭乘飞机或游轮入境，随后 仅可乘坐往返台湾的邮轮再次 入境。 台湾旅游局统计数 据显 示，2012年来台旅游人数共计 700万人次，其中230万人次来自 大陆。台湾希望到2016年将来 台旅游人数增至1,000万。 海峡两岸的经贸关 系正 越 来越紧密。

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枢纽：香港

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净化空气

须转用低硫柴油。据陆恭蕙女 士表示，港府的此次举措将会“ 非常有魄力”。 不仅如此，此举也是地区整 体计划的一部分。 无论是在政府施政演说还是 Alfred Romann报道香港政府力图实现亚洲首个排放控制区 其他场合，香港政府都 再三明 确表 示其计划，即推出针对船 舶的强制性排放控制措施，作 新法令要求船只在香港泊岸时 舶在香港泊岸时需转用低硫柴 进行了修订。 船东纷纷表示，希望出台实 为与珠江三角洲的其它地区合 需转用低硫柴油。该项法规将 油。”香 港政 府 计 划在下次 立 很快提交 立法机关讨论，并且 法会议期内向立法会提出立法 际的相关法律，这样就能够创 作建立范围更广的排放控制区 造出平等的竞争环境。拿那些 （ECA）的工作的一部分。现在 建议。 很有可能颁布实施。 梁振英先生还表示，香港政 尚未签署宪章的船运公司来说， 已经实施排放控制区（ECA）的 继香港特区行政长官梁振英 于今年1月份发表年度施政演说 府正在与广东省政府合作探讨“ 它们的船舶在停靠香港时仍然 其它地区包括美国加州和波罗 之后，香港政府决心推动立法 要求远洋轮船在珠江三角洲任 使用含硫量更高的燃油，而非 的海地区。 陆恭蕙女士表示，将这一政 程序，为所有在香港泊岸的船 何港口泊岸时均需转用低硫柴 转用价格更贵的含硫量0.5%的 燃 油，这 样就 在 成 本 方面占了 策 推 广到 整 个 珠 江 三角 洲 地 油的可行性。” 舶创造更加公平的竞争环境。 区“将造福整个地区的居民。我 优势。 最近，香港环保局副局长陆 们的愿景是使本地区的所有水 恭蕙（ChristineLoh）在香港表 域都成为低排放区域。” S i n o S h i p从香 港船东协 会 示： “环保宪章堪称全球唯一的 由行业中的企业自行承担转用 （The Hong Kong Shipowners 低硫柴油所花费成本的自愿计 Association）那里了解到，协会 强 制 要 求 转 用 低 硫 柴 油 划。从根本上来说，这些船运企 一直为了形成ECA而不懈努力， 在1月16日发表施政演说时， 香港特区新任行政长官梁振英 这一 举 措 建 立在 18 家 海 运公 业是自掏腰包来做这件事情。” 并力争使北京市和广东省参与 陆恭蕙女士补充说： “我们 其中。 概述了香港政府2013年度发展 司自 愿 参 与 的 基 础 之 上 。到 梁 振 英 先 生 还 介 绍了另外 路线，他特别宣布将采取一系 目 前 为 止 ，已 经 有 1 7 家 集 装 所做的最重要的一件事情就是 列措施治理污染问题。香港政 箱 航 运 公司 签 署了乘 风 约 章 立法强制要求船舶在港口停泊 一项相关的举 措，即为新建的 府治理污染的工作重点将放在 （FairWindsCharter），要求他们 时必须转用低硫柴油。所幸的 启德邮轮码头（Kai Tak Cruise 减少汽车尾气排放上，特别是 旗下的船舶在香港停泊时均须 是，我们有望在相对较短的时 Terminal）提供岸上供电。首个 泊位将于今年6月份开始运营。 被视为路边空气污染罪魁祸首 转用更清洁的低硫柴油。该环 间内通过这项法案。” 据陆恭蕙女士表示，香港政 如果香港政府确能在未来几 的公共交通网络。不过，船舶的 保宪章于2 011年1月由香港班 轮航运协会（Hong Kong Liner 个月中通过 此类法案，香港将 府之所以等到现在才出台这一 污染问题也倍受关注。 梁振英先生表 示： “我们还 Shipping Association）制定和颁 率先在本地区通过立法的形式 措施，是因为之前缺乏岸电设 在考虑启动立法程序，规定船 布。就在过去的几个星期刚刚 规定在本地港口停泊的船只必 施的相关国际标准。

船东们表示，他们希望见到实际 立法出台，形成公平竞争的环境

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■ ■ ■ 书籍

印度是否准备好跨越式发展？ 通过把自己在中国金融大都市里的生活环境与印度类似的环境相对比，Paul French寻找亚洲这两个人口最多的国度有哪些共同点（如果有的话） 这个圣诞 节，我是在一次长期 旅行中度过的，当时我人在印 度，确切地说主要是在孟买。 我已经在华（主要是在上海）旅 居 20 年时间，因此，我不禁想 要对这两个亚洲人口大国加以 比较，看看有哪些相似之处。 不过，这本不应该发生。 就在几年前，中印（Chindia） 曾一度是非常热议的话题，许 多人都试图对两者加以比较， 结果都以失败告终。当时，对 印度/中国，象（印度图腾）/龙 （中国图腾）加以比较的书籍 都了无新意，除了指出两个国 家都幅员辽阔、人口众多和潜 力巨大之外，我们从中学不到 任何有价值的东西。这就是新 兴市场的问题所在— 能够将 他们相提并论的唯一共同点就 是它们都是新兴经济体。除此 之外，中国、印度、巴西和俄罗 斯，再算上您愿意包括在内的 其他国家（现在的名单中还包 括土耳其、印度尼西亚和尼日 利亚等），所有这些国家都差异 很大，无论是历史、文化、政治 经济体制还是成长轨迹都大相 径庭。 同 样，中 印 两 国 差 异 程 度 之 大 超 乎 我 们 的 想 象 。所 有 32

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作家 都知道事 物 有高 下之 分，并 且 免 不 了会 通 过 一 个 事 物 来比 较 另外 一 个 事 物。 在此情况下，我们最好多读读 关于每 个国家 / 市场的著作， 而非偷懒 把“必读书目”列表 减半，只读 那些标题中有“中 印”字眼的书目。 国际 图书出版 商 对 印度的

色的作品要算是 Bhagat 在 2011 年出版的小说Revolution 2020， 书中讲述了印度富于创业精神 的新兴中产阶级的故事，场面 宏大，充满睿智。 就 在 最 近，或 许 最有 趣 的 是 作 家G u r c h a r a n D a s 的 新 作India Grows at Night。Das 在 书 中回 顾 了 印度 国内 和 国

这就是新兴市场的问题所在—能 够将他们相提并论的唯一共同点就 是它们都是新兴经济体 重视程度略显不足，它们把主 要精力都放在报导中国上。不 过，在印度国内绝对不是这样 的情况— 许多印度本土出版 商都出版了大量报道印度的书 籍，对 本国的 优 势、缺 陷、成 功、失败进行了详尽的论述， 足 以满足 读 者 热 切的 需 求， 同时，印度本土作家（通常以英 文写作），例如知名作家Chetan Bhagat的作品畅销印度全国， 其探索的主题包括中产阶级的 形成、国际主义、传统文化和新 兴文化的碰撞等，堪称印度的 民意调查者。也许这方面最出

外商人 对 印度 通常 的 抱 怨 之 词（作 者在 其 2 0 0 0 年 的 作 品 India Unbound中曾对这方面 有过 简 要 概 述，此 书 迄 今 仍 值得 一读）、 “许可证 制度” （licence Raj）下效率低下的 官僚主义、爱管闲事的地方政 府、腐败和贫穷。这些 抱怨者 将会很赞同Das认为的事情即 将有所改观，并且新德里方面 已经放弃试图从微观层面管理 新经济和企业家的努力。虽然 这是有意为之还是无能为力不 得而知，不过，有一点Das或许 说得没错，即印度过去10年科

技的成功在一定程度上应当归 功于印度政府未强制为 IT设 立政府主管部门。相比之下，中 国对其IT和互联网行业实施严 格监管，在一定程度上正因为 如此中国只造就出新浪和百度 等行业巨头，并且这些企业要 完全听命于政府安排（哦，不 好意思，虽然我之前说过不愿 意对中印进行比较，我在这里 却这样做了—没办法，忍住不 这样做实在太难了！）. 越 来 越多的人 开始 认 为印 度的不足之处正在发生改变， 不过，这主要是印度本国人的 想法，局外人或国外的印度观 察 家却并不这么认为。与D a s 的作品一样，Sumit Majumdar 的 作 品 I n d i a’ s Late, Late Industrial Revolution在很多方面 也谈到了关于“许可证制度” （licence Raj）正日益放宽这一 主题。如果说Majumdar在哪方 面要比 Das的想法更为大胆， 那就是他认为印度将会很快摆 脱效率低下的官僚主义和严苛 的政府束缚，成功复制中国、日 本、新加坡和韩国所取得的成 功。想法的确不错。不过，也许 经常游历于亚洲的读者会忍不 住问，如果印度真正成为一个 自由不受干涉、政府不干涉并且 不存在官僚主义的国度，那么 上述四种经济模式中的哪一种 未来能够在印度取得成功呢？

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培训中心、模拟器

为何海员培训是浪费钱的傻事 为了给内容增色，Andrew Craig-Bennett在较有争议的一个栏目中，对目前采取的船员培训技术颇有 微词 培训就像母爱和苹果派，人人 都喜欢。 不过，没有人愿意花钱参加 培训。 我将向大家说的是，在几乎 所有的船 运公司中，绝大多数 的培训费用都浪费掉了。 浪费的原因有两个。首先， 很少有人有资质能够评估出其 海运工作人员所接受的培训的 质量是好是坏；其次，几乎没有 人会花心思去了解真正需要哪 种培训。 想象一下，培训实际上与气 缸机油非常相似。如果您不需 要花钱买，或者您只需打开开 关就可以获得机油，那么您肯 定想要很多机油，因为这样要 稳妥些。如果情况相反，您必须 花钱购买的话，那么明智的做 法是仔细计算出需要多少以及 到底哪里需要，并相应调整龙 头开关控制流量大小。不过，几 乎没有人能做到这一点。 实际发生的情况是这样的：

那 些 教育学 识 非常 浅 显 的人 往往在读到有些新法规时，就 会忍不住认为他们的海运工作 人员需要“继续教育”或去完 成计 算机 辅助培训（CB T）项 目；他们会选择一门课程或某 个 CBT 项目，常常都是出于错 误的原因，并把那些可造之材 送去培训，希望他们都能够成 为目光炯炯、神采奕奕的模范 生，悉心接受那些正传授给他 们的至理名言，而实际上这些 学员更愿意回家与家人呆在一 起或在船舱里看电影。 可怕的是，很多船东，甚至 可以说几乎所有船东都掉进了 陷阱，在公司内部开设了专门 的培训部。这些日子，培训设 施的“最终象征”，即全任务船 桥模拟器的价格相对便宜，因 此很多公司都购入了这样一个 模拟器。不过，这些模拟器的 运行费用可着实不菲。除了需 要定期升级、硬件维护和更新 之外，模拟器还需要一群好老

一定不要使用公司的培训中心； 请使用那些能够与最佳实践与时俱 进的第三方培训中心

师，并且这些好老师并不像您 想的那样垂手可得。 技 术骨 干或总 工 程 师未必 就是好的培训师。将一名大学 生 培 养成合格 的 老 师 至 少 需 要一年的时间；那么航运业有 什么理由认为，为了让 上级高 兴，培训工作人员能够被随便 委任工作轻松、待遇不菲的岸 上培训工作，他们又凭什么能 够将他们的知识有效传授给他 人呢？ 更糟糕的是，公司的培训中 心很可能多是为了确保企业文 化长久不衰，然而，企 业 文化 并非各方面都是好的。这样一 来，企业文化中糟粕的部分就 会 与 精 华 部 分 一起 传 给下一 代。有一次，一家业界知名的 油轮企业曾通过一个培训中心 将所有的管理人员聚在一起； 当时正逢这家企业的一艘船触 礁搁浅不久，之所以会发生这 样的事故，是因为该公司在海 上船员资源管理 （MCRM） 方 面非常薄弱，使用的是视觉导 航方法，而非雷达系统并行检 索的方法。对于这家公司庞大 的船队来说，这绝非这些特定 缺陷第一次引发事故— 据我 所知，过去 20 多年来这些问题

反复发生— 这可以说是重复 性缺陷的最经典案例— 这个 缺陷在该公司的系统中长期存 在，一直未获改进。 一定不 要 使 用 公司的培 训 中心；请使用那些能够与最佳 实践与时俱进的第三方培训中 心—这样做，您的员工才能学 到真正的最佳实践，而不是你 们办公室里那些过时的老家伙 推崇的老掉牙的东西。 在 继 续 我们刚才所做 的气 缸机油类比之前（我们真的应 该 像 对 待 气 缸 机油 那 样 在培 训方面花费同样多的时间！） ，我们需要知道哪些地方真正 需要培训和到底需要什么样的 培训。照目前的情况来看，公司 的培训费用中至少有一半被浪 费掉了，可能是因为受 训人 员 对正在教授的培训内容非常熟 悉，也可能是因为他根本无法 领悟向他传授的内容。 有一个方法可以解决这个问 题，这个方 法被称作“能力保 证”。其他行业都在使用这个方 法，我们也应该这样做。现在 就是开始的好时机。如果您船 队的人事部门对此一无所知， 马上解雇他们，找那些懂行的 人替代他们。 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

中国城市化进程如火如荼 船舶的用途将日益广泛，不仅将用于满足中国基础设施的新硬件需求，还将用于满足中国居民的生活需 求，Max Hong 如是说。 中国 春节（即中国农历新年） 刚刚 来 临。今 年是 农 历蛇年。 在之前数十年中，春节对西方 主流社会影响不大。 到了现在，中国已经成为国 际 舞 台上不 可或 缺 的主 流 经 济体，中国人欢庆农历新年会 对全 球 的 财 富 和 各 国贸 易产 生重大影响。尽管经济发展的 主 要 推 动力 量 — 中国 — 正 在欢度新春佳节，仿佛为所有 经济活动按下了暂停按钮，但 会议室和交易大厅、理货员和 生 产 定 额 核 算员以 及各 类 经 纪人还必须时刻紧盯屏幕，尽 管 各 板块 的 走 势图始 终 波 澜 不惊。 全 球 航 运 业现 在 非常倚重 中国。现在中国正在欢度为期 数周周的新春佳节，因此全球 航运业要等到中国假期结束后 业务才能继续增长。那么，农 历蛇年将会给航运业带来什么 影响呢？ 现在看来，中国已经规避了 之 前 令人 担 忧 的 经 济 硬 着 陆 危 险。根 据 2 0 13 年 初 公布 的 统计数据，随着订单数量回升 以 及 逐 步 顺 利向消费 社会 转 型，这在很大程度上缓解了之 前有关需求暴跌、工厂开工率 不足和失业率猛增等忧虑。看 起 来中国已 经 实 现了经 济 软 着陆。 不过，中国造船业却并未感 受到这些好消息，船舶订购数 量大幅减少。经济繁荣发展时 期 建 造的 数百家 造 船厂 现 在 苦 苦 支 撑 。这 些 造 船 企 业 无 法与国有造船厂相提并论，虽 然后者同样面临困境，不过它 们知 道 最 终 政 府必 将 施以援 手，确保国有造船厂不会无活 可干。 中国新一届领导班子将在蛇 年正式上任，他们将在未来十年 带领中国经济继续发展。新一届 领导班子的使命是再接再厉，保 持经济继续发展。他们将通过 经济发展和社会稳定来实现这一 目标。只许成功，不许失败。 对于国有造船厂来说，影响 显而易见，这从 来自国有航运 公司的订单就能够看出来。正 34

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快速发展到2030年，中国城镇居民数量将达到10亿， 地球上每8个人中就有一人生活在中国的城市里

如中国进出口银行最近宣布将 增加 30 亿美元贷款，银行将在 其中发挥重要作用。 当然，蓝筹股公司也将得到 中国进出口银行的支持，不过 所有这些都无法再现造船业的 繁荣，并且由于造船产能过剩

发 展 仍 将 继 续，同 时 将 兴 建 大 量 公 路 、住 宅 、航 运 中 心、写字 楼和 高 科 技 工 厂。发 展 步 伐 虽 然比 不上 之 前经 济 繁 荣 期曾激 发 兰 斯 阿姆 斯 特 朗（环法自行车 赛冠军）的强 度，不 过 市 场 需 求 将 使 所 有

对于那些乐观的人们来说，2014 和 2015 年正在激发他们对于定能 亲眼见证未来发展的信心 供大于求，同时相关成本因素 也使造船业在结构上基本不会 继续走低，因此价格有望横向 整理。 各个行业的工人工资持续上 涨。同样，能源价格也持 续攀 升。不过，将另外5亿低密度农 业人口转变为高密度城市人口 的动力仍是“中国之队”（Team China）的核心发展理念。

国家的船只有货可运（虽然价 格很低），直到市场跨 越奇妙 的交汇点—即供应收缩的曲 线与需 求 持 续上 升的趋 势相 交。2013 年产能过剩将意味 着价格走低，但对于那些乐观 的人们来说，2014 和 2015 年 正在激发他们对于定能亲眼见 证未来发展的信心。 到2030年，中国城镇居民数量

将达到10亿，地球上每8个人中就 有一人生活在中国的城市里。 现在，需求增长常态化正成 为中国发展要求的一部分，其 动力来自于中国政府保持经济 增长所依赖的城市化进程。到 目前为止，新建城市或城市扩 建 所 开发的土 地 都 是 农 业 用 地，这些农业用地都是最为宝 贵稀有的肥沃土地，在中国这 个大部分国土面积均为山地或 沙漠的国度里是非常有限的宝 贵资产。 船舶的用途将日益广泛，不 仅将用于满足中国基础设施的 新硬件需求，还将用于满足中 国居民的生活需求。 国际航运业需要中国，这点 早已众所周知，不过，实际上中 国也更需要其它国家/地区的帮 助，直到最近所有利益相关者 才发现这一问题。 我们现在都身处主流发展进 程中。

意见

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“名声是建立在技能和逆市表现 的基础之上” Bei Hong 认为，凡是那些能够在蛇年坚持不懈的人，当经济形势转好时都必将有所成就 中国农历蛇年即将来临，之前 我们钟爱的行业饱受经济低迷 困扰，在新的一年中，究竟我们 的行业将会像预期那样继续保 持低迷的颓势，还是会有所转 机呢？事态究竟如何发展有待 时间来证明，不过，未来一年形 势仍然严峻似乎是业界的普遍 看法，至少航运业如此。西方 国家的股票市场 2013 年开局不 错，价格上涨创造新的纪录，由 此看来，航运业与世界其他行 业经济形势脱节的情况仍将继 续下去。 我从事航运行业多年，经历 过多次经济衰退，因此很希望 继续熬过这次危机。不过，对 于我们最近刚刚招聘的新员工 来说形势要严峻得多，毕竟他 们是行业新人，缺乏经验，或者 说，对于刚入行几年的员工来 说形势也同样不妙，由于前些 年时局不错，挣钱太容易，他们 把挣的钱基本上都花在购买保 时捷这些豪车上。 今年，从整个行业 来看，肯 定将会有一些企业撑不下去， 不过，尽管今年的情形与20 世 纪 80 年代（当时刚解除监管的 银行纷纷大力发展自己的投资 银行部门）的情况大相径庭， 不过不大可能会有大批的人离 开航运交易所，去往股票交易 所。新 一 代 年 轻 人仍 然 有 机 会大展拳脚，很有可能在未来 成长为精明强干的经纪人、律 师、船舶管理人和其它服务提 供商。 今 年最 先 走出第一步的可 能是一些经验丰富的老前辈， 他 们 希 望 四 处 转 转，碰 碰 运

气。如今，他们已经没有去东京 打一局高尔夫球这样的闲情逸 致，而是在原先利润丰厚的业 务流失掉之后拼尽全力去重新 搞定客户要修理的船舶，在此 情况下，这些人可能会选择最 终退出。尽管有些航运服务公 司紧抱着“后来者先走”(la st in, first out） 的原则不放，但绝 大多数值得为之工作的航运服 务公司都意识到那些有理想、 有抱负的年轻同事才是公司未 来的希望。 那么，您在经济不景气时会 怎么做 呢？非常 简单，努力工 作，以客户为中心。如果您的业

务要依靠船东过活（无论是哪 种形式或 方式），您肯定确信 船东们的日子并不好过。无论 您从事的是哪一种工作，如果 您能够想办法帮助船东使其目 前惨淡的投资回报略有改善的 话，那么，您不仅能够获得对方 的器重，而且一旦行业 形势开 始复苏，对方一定不会忘记找 你合作。在经济鼎盛时期，即 便是平常人从事把握稍小、但 回报极高的业务也能够长盛不 衰，不过，要让船舶在业务量最 小的情况下保持运营，并等待 转机出现，那就需要在回报极 少的情况下不辞劳苦地辛勤工

那么，您在经济不景气时会怎么 做呢？非常简单，努力工作，以客 户为中心

作。务必要确保您打交道的人 能够让所有相关人员都按时领 到工资，这将强化您的风险管 理技巧。很多案例表明，很多人 对危机发生之前的那段岁月并 不看重。名声靠的是努力获得 的技巧和市场状况不佳时的不 俗表现。 正像那些谨慎留出一笔专用 资金的船东们那样，现在我们 有机会好好审视一下那些站不 住脚的乐观主义和从未发生过 的“模式转移”(paradigm shift） 。在此情况下，对于我们这些直 到现在仍是小职员的人来说， 终于有了把人才与庸碌之辈区 分 开来的机会了。在价值骤减 的情况下，请密切关注那些从 困境中脱颖而出的新公司。Bei Hong Steam Navigation Company 这家公司就表现不俗。 Sinoship 2013年春季刊

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