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2 minute read
Cash Abundance in the Mining Sector?
from SMR May 2022
as mining supply prOblems Occur anD reserves Of Key energy transition metals decline, the majors are returning record dividends to shareholders! Cash is aplenty in the mining industry. However, in a boom-and-bust industry where earnings are presently at decade or record highs because of skyrocketing commodity prices, others fear that an emphasis on rewards would exacerbate the companies' longer-term problems.
The generation of CEOs who took over major corporations saddled with debt from the low-price circumstances of the most recent downturn have learned from the previous bear market, which lasted until roughly 2016. That repair-focused generation is gone, replaced by finance-focused successors who lurked in the shadows throughout the weak market and are concerned about racking up debt through risky acquisitions.
This has resulted in record dividends and share buyback programs, as capital is utilized to keep investors happy rather than grow mineral reserves. Given that Russia is a significant supplier of nickel and copper, and supply has not been maximized, the invasion of Ukraine has created greater concerns regarding production.
Oil and gas corporations have stated that increasing prices are partially the responsibility of investors who have sought supply discipline in recent years in the energy market, where a similar dynamic is visible. There are also other elements in play. Even mining executives are promoting 'future-facing metals' and the industry's positive contribution to the energy transition in an attempt to attract new investors eager to put their money into companies that are contributing to the transition to greener energy and lower emissions in a world increasingly governed by sustainable investing considerations.
The difficulty (and opportunity) is that demand for metals like copper and nickel will only grow as a result of catalysts like the shift to electric vehicles and a higher share of renewables supplying electricity systems. The fact that supply is already stretched should ensure that prices and, as a result, earnings remain high. Additional investors wanting growth, on the other hand, maybe unhappy if their money is merely used to sustain cash profit margins rather than, say, sourcing new nickel for wind turbines or assisting in the development of the next Tesla (US:TSLA).
Massive rewards to investors are appealing, but they raise the danger of more suffering down the road if the energy shift is slowed by a dearth of copper wire or nickel for electric vehicle batteries. In a nutshell, the world's largest miners must decide how to effectively utilize their record cash flows.
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