Ascot, WA, April 11, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.15 WA time
SECOND LEG 3.55 WA time
THIRD LEG 4.30 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.05 WA time
Winning Edge Trophy 1000m
WA Sires’ Produce (Gr3, 2YO) 1400m
WATC Derby (Gr1, 3YO) 2400m
Agrum Hcp (1MWLY) 1500m
Small field, and only a few options. That said, this is just the sort of race that produces the most unlikely winner. (3) Elliotto looks the standout on an outstanding career – 15 starts, 7 wins, 6 placings. His last-start second to the flying Dante’s Volonte over 1100m at Ascot on March 21 is good enough to win this. (7) Formal Attire hasn’t won since August 2007, at Sandown, but some of that time was spent at stud. He has great pace, and has been impressive in this grade since resuming from a 15-month break. He will most likely be in front on the turn … can he hang on? (8) Snip Esprit was outstanding beating Follow The Road over 1200m (0-79) at Ascot on Feb 21, before failing in the Bunbury Stakes. He will be behind the lead here, and can finish over the top. Must be included. (2) Raw Metal is not in the race on recent form, but can produce when least expected – as in his win in the Listed Ruabon, 1200m at Belmont on Sept 20, at $21, showed. (5) Bull Durham has speed and comes off a win at Kalgoorlie; (6) Diamond Highway comes off an Albany win. Yet to win in 10 at Ascot.
A difficult race, especially with one of the obvious choices, (1) Wolfe Dreams, drawn on the river side. He has had an outstanding career, with three wins and a close second from four starts, all of them from the leading division. It seems Shaun McGruddy must choose to go forward. Wolfe Dreams is tough, and will be in the finish. The filly (13) Gold Rocks surprised beating Wolfe Dreams in the Karrakatta (1200m), after a disappointing fifth ($2.40) the previous week to For Your Eyes Only. She is not well drawn, but must be included. (3) Don’trocktheboat finished powerfully for third in the Karrakatta, and with the ideal draw comes right into this. We can see him gaining the perfect run behind the lead and finishing with strength. (2) Xaaravid and (5) God Has Spoken are last-start winners in lesser grade, but need to be included. Xaaravid was favourite when 7 th to Kid Choisir in the Supremacy after a closing second to Wolfe Dreams in the Magic Millions. The extra trip here will suit. The extra trip also suits God Has Spoken, but the wide draw is a problem.
A classic Derby in which a bunch of quality males will be doing battle against the four placegetters in last week’s Oaks Stakes (Gr3). The favourite will be (1) Phenomenons who has been dominant in the two lead-up races, the Roberts (1800m) on March 14 and the Melvista (2200m) on March 28. We rate the male danger to the fave as (6) Almohad, who was taking ground from the favourite in the Melvista. (10) Berlioz, looked powerful hitting the lead, then the running rail in that race, and could be a surprise. (3) Dominicano’s only win was in the TJ Smith (1600m) at $41. He just plugged away in open company behind Great Destiny over 2200m on March 28. Include also the Victorian, the Peter Moody-trained (5) Markus Maximus, off a close second at Caulfield (2000m) on March 28. Must include the fillies: (13) Cassandara Shadow, the Oaks winner; (14) Admiring, second; (12) Brava Fortune, an unlucky third; and perhaps the maiden, (15) I Am Lucky, indeed lucky to get fourth after four runners fell in the last part of the Oaks. If not the favourite, then go very, very wide.
After the riches of the two classics, we come down to earth with a one Metro win (or none) in the past 12 months. As would be expected, few of those who run around in town weekly are in sparkling form, which takes us to the bottom weight, (11) Osh Empire, who is racing through the grades with strong front-of-the-field performances. He has won three of his past four, (including an Ascot 0-67 1400m on Mar 9) with a half head second at Pinjarra in that mix. He’ll be near the front, and with a big weight pull might be the standout. The other chances are a few ‘usual suspects’: (2) McLurch (hasn’t won since June 2007), who will race near the front; (5) Kaleido who is better (just) than recent form suggests; (6) Sir Chalmers (last win, July ’07 in Broome); (9) Lexicon Gold (last win March ’08 at Belmont); and maybe (10) My Empire, a strong finisher who hasn’t won for 14 months. The one we can’t work out is the classy (1) Mansion House, whose best is better than the rest put together, but he hasn’t won since Sept 2007. He is 3-5 in Stakes company. Third up in this.
3 – 7,8,2,6 – 5,1,4
1 – 13 – 3 – 2,5
1 – 6,12,13,10,14 – 5,3
11 – 2,1,5 – 10,6,9
FOCUS ON THIRD LEG
THE PLAYS (50c unit)
When in doubt go for the class event, and the class runner, and that’s the Derby and the pre-post favourite (1) Phenomenons. The Giant’s Causeway colt from an Octagonal mare has been trained to the minute, winning 4-6 since resuming in January. We loved the way he controlled the race from back in the field, swooped and held off strong challenges winning the Melvista. There is plenty of tough opposition this time, but we think he has the class, and the barrier, to finish a great campaign on a high.
$18
3,7,8,2/1,13,3/1/11,2,1
$36
FIELD/1,13,3/1/11,2,1
$84
FIELD/1,13,3/1/11,2,1,5,10,6,9
$192
FIELD/FIELD/1/11,2,1
$225
3,7,8,2,6/1,13,3,2,5/1,6,12,13,10,14/11,2,1
OUR FAVOURED BET
$225
3,7,8,2,6/1,13,3,2,5/1,6,12,13,10,14/11,2,1