Ascot, WA, February 21, 2009 FIRST LEG 3.35 WA Time
SECOND LEG 4.15 WA Time
THIRD LEG 4.55 WA time
FOURTH LEG 5.35 WA time
Brooklands Tavern Hcp, (0-86) 1400m
Roebuck Bay Hcp (0-79) 1600m
Champion 3YO Fillies Stakes (Gr3) 1600m
Kwinana Lodge Hotel Hcp (0-79) 1200m
(1) Oscar Wildly will be favourite in this wide, wide, wide event, and he may well win, but … he does have 59kg, he has drawn wide, and he is having his 11 th run this preparation (3 wins). We have to tip him to win, but any of the following could win without surprising: (3) Beyond Dispute, a 10YO racing in great form; (4) Becks, a speedster out to 1400m after mixing his form in the Great South; (5) Dante’s Banquet, a stayer, but he has won at 1400m (2) and 1500m (1); (6) Another Clanger, a bold 2nd in easier grade last time, and a likely leader; (8) Feint, unpredictable but capable; (10) Rocking The Blues, also up in class, but racing in top form, and a strong finisher; and (11) Xaar Boom, who has performed well in two placings (Bunbury and Ascot) since returning from a spell – she has a touch of class. Regular readers of this column knows what that all means – it means going very safely with the widest possible option in the first leg. We hate missing the first leg, so we’ll be taking the FIELD, with a small wager on Oscar Wildly one out, with a few wide options going forward.
If you thought the first leg was tough, well cop this! We’ll be trying to manipulate the rest of the quaddie to ensure we have the field running again. The likely favourite is (6) Prince Of Sands, coming off a perfect run and an easy win in a 0-67 1400m here in midweek company. If that fills you with confidence, you’re the sort who wins the raffle at the school fete every year. Other fancies include (10) Friartruck, 11 th at 25/1 here behind Aunty Winnie last Saturday, and (12) Ma Chienne, 14th of 16 ($4.60) in the same race. Both had restricted room in the straight, and are suited here. (4) Sky Marshall, wide throughout last start, is sure to be in the betting. He last won in April last year, and before that in November ’07. (5) Found And Kept’s only win in the city was at 12/1 in similar company here last March, and his other two wins were at Albany. Some will include likely leader (2) Kennedy (a 9YO), (3) Observation (a stayer back in distance), (7) Split The Scene, (8) Stramos and (9) Caller One. If bookies don’t bet 5/1 the field, they’re kidding. Take the field, and move on.
At last a race of great quality, but again we’re faced with a wide race; at least in this case we have similar form lines, and we can choose with some confidence. We loved the run of (1) Brava Fortune first up last week, when 2 nd to (7) Flight Path in the Magic Millions (1400m). She was handy, grabbed the lead although racing a little erratically, and was run down by a filly who had a great run. We’re confident Brava Fortune, the dominant 2YO of last autumn can turn the tables. Flight Path, the half-sister to Scenic Shot, surprised last week, but won a quality race. Must be considered again, although the wide gate is against her. Others from that race who will improve are (2) Valentine Miss, favourite and 7th (3½ lens), (8) Belle Times, (led and 5th) and (6) Exquisite Timing (a closing 8th). The other formline comes through the 1400m Challenge on Feb 7, won well by (5) Danebeela, from the strongfinishing (9) Jeverre, (4) Locus Standi (3rd) and (3) Cassandara Shadow (6th ). The only other chance for us is (12) Simplyirresistible, yet to show her best in two runs since resuming, but she is a filly of quality.
There’s no relief at the end of the meeting, so if you’re still alive at this stage, you should be sitting on something special. We’re going to go a little narrow (although we’d like to have the field running for us), with (4) Transaction and (8) Coronate the quinella in a similar affair here on Feb 7, (3) Snip Esprit, 9th and ordinary first up in that race, but he will improve, (13) Follow The Road, up in class on his first-up 2 nd (sht hd) to Anecdotal over 1000m here on Feb 11, but a 4YO of great potential, and (15) See A Victory, ko’d late when 2 nd to Mission Control first up over 1100m here on Jan 28, after a perfect run. Mission Control has won twice since, so that form is strong. (7) Hide The Loot has won once from 17 at Ascot, but has some claims, and (6) Henry The Pharoah, resumes (one trial) since favourite and 5th in the Country Cup (1500m) to Interange on October 25. (1) Classic Lad better over longer, did win first up over 1300m last prep (May 29), and could be a player. The very rough chances are (12) Dane La Belle, a nice first-up third, and (14) Lucasdemandas, promising in earlier preparations and ready to improve.
FIELD or 1–10,11,8,6,5
FIELD or 12,10,6 – 5,4,8
1–7,5,12–6,4,2,9
4,8,3,13,15 – 1,6,12,7,14
FOCUS ON THIRD LEG
THE PLAYS
Honestly, there’s a touch of “numbers in the hat and hope” with these four races, but the one event of real quality is the Group 3 Champion Stakes for the 3YO fillies. We’re inclined to put our faith in the top filly of her 2YO season, Brava Fortune. She’s from the “winning everything” Parnham stable, is drawn well, will race close to the lead, and will be improved by her first-up second to rival Flight Path. If we’re going to go down, we’ll go down with quality. Given the impossible other legs, perhaps go one out.
$90
1/FIELD/1/FIELD
$120
1,10,11,8/12,10,6/1,7,5,12/4,8,3,13,15
$180
1,10,11,8,6,5/12,10,6/1,7,5,12/4,8,3,13,15
$198
FIELD/FIELD/1/4,8,3
$330
FIELD/FIELD/1/4,8,3,13,15
OUR FAVOURED BET
$198
FIELD/FIELD/1/4,8,3 here *Quad plays body ??%