Belmont Saturday Perth Racing Preview
competitive. Zaffiric (5) made an encouraging debut in midweek grade, zooming home from last to place.
Street Related (8) can perform better up to 1400m. He is much better than his past two runs suggest.
THE VERDICT
THE VERDICT
(1) Kid Choisir should win, but the odds will be very tight. Bet confidently. (2) Excellar will give his best and there is not much between him and (3) Musket Fire. Include (5) Zaffiric for multiple bet types.
Back (3) Black Nijinsky and save on (1) Umaar. Keen to play the quinella and exacta bet types. (2) Bad Funk Stripe, (4) Statewide and (8) Street Related for the deeper multiples.
Race 2 – Carlton Dry Hcp [3YO] [59-74] 1400m 3:05pm [EST]
Race 3 – Pure Blonde Hcp [3YO+] [74-86] 1400m 3:45pm [EST]
Some progressive types locking horns here in what looms as a tremendous contest. In a race with no natural speed or leader, I would not be surprised to see Black Nijinsky (3) asked to begin from his wide gate and roll to the front and dominate proceedings. Debutante Queen's Gem (7), Umaar (1) and Bad Funk Stripe (2) can be handy to speed. Tactical speed will prove vital.
Wide-open race, and all look to have some winning chance. Expecting an even tempo, with even pressure applied. Eagle Rock (11) can hold a prominent position, with Revy Jay (9) sure to be ridden positive from his wide draw and Broome Time (4) stalking them.
BY JOSH RODDER The track is a Good (2) as of Friday lunchtime; the penetrometer is 6 (Perth measurements are different to those in the Eastern States, because of a different sand based track). The rail moves to the six-metre position; it was 15m midweek and 3m last Saturday. There has been 8ml of rain this week, with more expected late tomorrow afternoon. According to track manager Gordon Menzies the pad at 6m is in good shape and the track will appreciate any rain. FORECAST FOR SATURDAY: SHOWER OR TWO, INCREASING LATER. MIN 11 MAX 21
Race 1 – Carlton Mid Hcp [61+] [3YO] 1000m 2:25pm [EST] Despite the small field, there is some real quality in this line-up. Excellar (2) could kick up and try to hold the lead from Kid Choisir (1), who also is capable of crossing to front if Paul Harvey chooses to. This pair should dominate the race from the front. The 1000m races from the Belmont chute have been dominated by horses on top of the speed. Kid Choisir looks top notch and resumed at the Belmont midweeks with a comprehensive win over Excellar. He crossed from a wide gate to lead and won with something in hand. In the mounting yard he looked well above himself in condition, however his attitude really impressed me for a young colt. Showed in his first campaign during the autumn he had all the attributes to become a high-class sprinter. He should win again. Excellar is honest, but hard to see him turning the tables on Kid Choisir. Musket Fire (3) resumes from a spell with blinkers on. Trialled recently without them and was a closed second to the promising Impatient Times, with metro winners Cheval Roi and Classic Miss left in his wake. Will box seat, and the son of Lonhro can be
It is hard not to be impressed, with the natural improvement of Black Nijinsky in his second campaign of racing, his first for emerging trainer Simon Miller. Won his maiden at Northam in slick time, and then was ridden to perfection to score in faster overall time than the open-grade Goldtown. He was full of dapples and in prime condition pre-race last start. There is a lot to like about this progressive type and he will be able to be ridden like the best horse and prove hard to get past. Umaar is an untapped talent resuming firstup at 1400m without a trial. He is in the hands of master horseman Fred Kersley, so you cannot discount the horse’s condition. He has drawn to box seat and will take a power of beating. In his first campaign, he was a big raw kid who was still able to remain undefeated, leaving in his wake subsequent impressive autumn carnival winners Bridgestone and God Has Spoken. He was always going to come back a more complete package at three and he is the wildcard. Bad Funk Stripe was given a copybook ride to score here last week. Gets a nice run again and will try hard, but does not have the natural talent of those already mentioned.
Broome Time strips fitter for two runs back from a spell and looks ideally placed up to 1400m with Paul Harvey on. The blinkers and a lugging bit off are key gear changes to his success. His two runs back have been full of merit, and during the 2008 Belmont winter racing season he was competitive at this distance range behind the likes of Cohort and Roman Time. If Harvey is positive he can be rewarded with a sweet trailing run and be hard to hold out. Battle Emblem (7) is an enigmatic type who, on his day, can win a race like this. Was not suited back to 1200m last time and after sitting wide with cover ran on well. Any rain helps and he will be finishing strongly at good odds. Goldtown (1) is a former high-priced Sydney Easter yearling sale purchase who exploded first-up, flashing home from well back to prevail. He has always suggested that sprinting may be his go, so beware again second-up. Hide The Loot (6) is in career-best form and just loves Belmont. The query will be the tempo of a 1400m race – he is one-dimensional: go back, come wide and whoosh home.
THE VERDICT Keen on the chances of (4) Broome Time on a 1 x 2 unit win and place basis. Have
something small on (7) Battle Emblem at value. (1) Goldtown and (6) Hide The Loot are both winning chances. Include (10) Lunar Module, (11) Eagle Rock, (9) Revy Jay and (2) Amianan.
Race 4 – Carlton Dry Fusion Hcp [3YO+] [68-80] 1200m, 4:25pm [EST] Another competitive race. Genuine tempo expected, with high pressure predicted. Freegoing mare Saffron Fire (5) and natural runner Kim Currency (4) will ensure each horse gets its chance. I am looking for the horses that can position off the speed, and come with a rush late. I don’t think there is much between fresh pair Found And Kept (1) and On The Warpath (9). Both these horses are from astute yards and resume without the benefit of a trial. The lightly-raced pair have always shown immense potential and if produces its best it should win. Found And Kept was very good in his first campaign for Lou Luciani last time in work –it culminated with a 1.34:65 mile win last start. On The Warpath was competitive against the best young horses in the land in his three-year-old year. He took some time to regain form and last time in showed glimpses. Has an in-form rider (Daniel Staeck) and will get a soft run midfield the fence. Kim Currency is racing well and has some excellent form lines. He will push forward and make his own luck on top of the speed. The Burnett yard possesses one of the best strike rates in the state. Henry The Pharoah (8) has a bag full of tricks, but his best is very good. Paul Jordan usually has his horses primed first-up, so he would not surprise. I am loath to leave out Game Park (7), the talented but out of form Destino (3) and the blow-out horse King Risca (6).
Lovalover (10) is expected to take up the roll as pacemaker from Blue’s Guitar (8), Exhilarating (2), Hazardous Harmony (9) and Action Pak (1). Have been waiting for an eternity to see Scenic Bullet (5) in a staying race in WA, and this promising distance type can hit back hard. Two starts back he sat three wide with no cover over 1650m and kept going strongly to score. Not suited in a similar distance range last time when outsprinted, and looks pitchforked in after the 3kg allowance for Campbell McCallum. He should land a nice trailing position midfield, one off the fence. I have no doubts he is an ideal Perth Cup horse in the New Year. Windfields Farm (3) relishes the fire out of the ground at Belmont and was given a gem of a ride when surprised many with a second-up win. A month between runs usually would be a query, however astute local horseman Frank Maynard will have him in peak condition. His stats at this track and distance are supreme and from a nice draw he should be following Scenic Bullet everywhere. Money Exchange (7) is flying without winning and will be competitive again. He has drawn awkwardly but he is versatile with his racing pattern. Mikaldico (4) didn't back up after a hard run two starts ago. He is better than that and is the improver. Dante’s Dash (6) is racing well, and was very good back in distance last week. Exhilarating is a quality stayer and strips fitter for recent racing.
THE VERDICT I am convinced that (5) Scenic Bullet has loads of upside and will relish the trip, so bet confidently. (3) Windfields Farm is the danger. (7) Money Exchange, (4) Mikaldico, (6) Dante’s Dash, (2) Exhilarating, (9) Hazardous Harmony and (10) Original Lovalover can all be competitive.
THE VERDICT Back both (1) Found And Kept and (9) On The Warpath for a result. (4) Kim Currency will give loads of cheek. (8) Henry The Pharoah, (6) King Risca, (3) Destino and (7) Game Park are all winning chances.
QUADDIE FIRST LEG
Race 5 – Strongbow Spark Hcp [3YO+] [80+] 2200m 5:05pm [EST] Oodles of depth to this staying race. Even tempo expected, with only slight pressure to be applied to the leaders. Original
QUADDIE SECOND LEG
Race 6 – Carlton Natural Blonde Hcp [62-74] [3yo+] 1400m, 5:42pm [EST] Predicting a high-speed race, with hot pressure. Interange (6) will burn across front of field to lead. Several horses will want to use this horse to take up prime positions just off the speed, including Saracen King (8), Silver Omen (10), Whoville High (15) and Gum Nut Guru (11) could go back or forward from a horror draw.
Former Victorian galloper Gondorff (2) was terrific when resuming in strong midweek company. With 58.5kg he went back to last and gave subsequent winners Kim Star, Fine Memories and Game Park a start, with the rail out 18m. It’s virtually impossible to be competitive under that handicap, but he zoomed home in a 33.72 last 600m to be beaten just over a length. The hot speed predicted will be ideal for this horse, who was a winner second-up last time in at Northam over 1400m. Despite not winning last time in, he was not far behind some quality types. Each-way all day for mine. Duane Kitchingman has placed Milken Whiskey (3) to perfection this time in, and he is the form horse with the picket fence beside his name. He is another who will be suited with a truly run race and he will look the winner at some stage. Exquisite Timing (7) was doing her best work late first-up and has some real quality about her. Arctic Waters (4) is a disappointing horse, but had no luck last time three wide. He is drawn to get a nice run and the horse races well for Patrick Carbery. Seize Control (14) is out of his class again but is racing very well. Gum Nut Guru can be a player if he gets the right run from a tricky draw. The blinkers have been removed and he is the blow-out horse.
THE VERDICT Each-way all day (2) Gondorff. (3) Milken Whiskey is the hardest to beat. Include (7) Exquisite Timing, (4) Arctic Waters, (14) Seize Control, (11) Gum Nut Guru, (5) Pearler, (9) Mystical Xaar and (10) Silver Omen in multiples.
QUADDIE THIRD LEG
Race 7 – Carlton Draught Belmont Newmarket [3YO+] [Open] [Listed], 1200m, 6:17pm [EST] The off-season sprint features this winter at Belmont have been absolutely fantastic, with Grand Nirvana, Universal Ruler and Ma Ma Machine horses to stake their claims as carnival contenders. I’m looking forward to this battle with a strong speed expected and even pressure. Vain Raider (5) looks to get a comfortable lead from Danes Mystery (9), with Star Laser (2) and Escadaire (4) handy. I don’t think there is much between Vain Raider and Escadaire. Vain Raider has been in great form this time in work, winning the Northam Sprint in 1.01:75 for 1100m, then
nailed late by Grand Nirvana in a Kodak three-way finish in the Bolton Sprint, and last start in the Beaufine was unable to muster the speed to find the lead so was posted three wide without cover. Over the final stages he fought on tenaciously to hold third behind the flying Ma Ma Machine. 1200m suits and he will take a power of running down. Escadaire was outsped first up in the Beaufine behind Ma Ma Machine. He stuck to his guns well over the final stages and his second-up record of three wins from five attempts is excellent. Drawn to get a prime position trailing Danes Mystery and will be tough to hold out. I am quite keen on this pair to fill the quinella.
he has trained after his win two starts back and his charge did not let him down, franking that statement with a dominant win against his own age last time. This son of Choisir has always suggested he has oodles of natural talent, however it has taken some time for the penny to drop. Shaun O’Donnell, who has just had his best season in many years, believes in Kasabian and he will be positive again from his wide draw. The tactical speed he possesses has given him the opportunity to overcome wide draws at his past two starts. On the minimum weight he looks a special in a field of gallopers either not at their top, or past their prime or out of their grade.
Quality mare Danebeela (11) is still trying to stake her claim as an open-class sprinter after a stellar three-year-old year. Tried very hard when fifth first-up in the Beaufine and the effort was good. Suited up to 1200m from a nice draw, where she can be ridden a race by William Pike. Foxy Boy (12) hit the line well over 1400m last time, but does excel in a fast run 1200m. Drawn to get a cushy run and can explode when saved for one late burst. Not badly in down on the minimum. Veteran sprinter Star Laser can never be dismissed, stakes grade sprinter/miler Classy Nugget (6) resumes off a fair trial, the one-dimensional Oroya Gold (8) gets back and will be running on, and Reflective Star (13) is explosive on his day. Cracking race!
Zuytdorp (9) had a lot of negatives last start including weight, space between runs, up to 2000m for the first time and a wide draw. He covered ground back in the field with 58kg and worked to the line OK. He is better suited here and will be finishing better than anything else. Volcanic Causeway was a touch disappointing last start on face value, however a more positive ride may have seen a winning result. He is drawn to get the pie run and is suited up to 1600m.
THE VERDICT Back (5) Vain Raider and (4) Escadaire for a result. Keen on the quinella and exacta bet type on the pair. (11) Danebeela has to be considered a winning chance, with (12) Foxy Boy. Include (2) Star Laser, (6) Classy Nugget, (8) Oroya Gold and (13) Reflective Star in multiples.
QUADDIE FOURTH LEG
Race 8 – Pure Blonde Naked Hcp [74-86] (3YO+] 1600m, 6:55pm [EST] The depth to last year’s three-year-olds was exceptional and looking forward to many of them stepping out in their open-age year. One of those horses is the exciting Kasabian (12), who should be able to cross this field from a wide gate and lead on his ear. It should ensure a genuine tempo, but he has that unique quality of being able to do it at both ends of his races. Danecay (3), Volcanic Causeway (8), Black Douglas (11) and Rocky Range (6) can be prominent in the run. Kasabian is an emerging star. Ascot trainer Darren McAuliffe labelled him the best horse
I was rather taken with the run of evergreen country cups king Impact Rating (1) firstup from a spell and will relish the 1600m second-up. In a truly run race he will be working home strongly at good odds. Last Curtain (13) is always suited with a soft run off a genuine tempo and can be competitive. Black Douglas is in and out, but is drawn to get a soft run and is always value for multiples.
THE VERDICT Bet (12) Kasabian with confidence. (9) Zuytdorp will head the chasing pack. (8) Volcanic Causeway will loom as a winning chance and (1) Impact Rating is the best roughie. Include (13) Last Curtain, (11) Black Douglas, (7) Royal Cobra, (6) Rocky Range and (14) Midtime for wider exotics.
BEST BETS Race 1 – (1) Kid Choisir Race 8 – (12) Kasabian
VALUE BETS Race 5 – (5) Scenic Bullet e/w Race 6 – (2) Gondorff e/w
QUADDIE (50C UNIT) 3,4,5,6,7/2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,14/2,4,5,8,11,12/ 12 $135 3,5,7/2,3,4,7/2,4,5,8,11,12/12 $36 3,5/Field/4,5/12 $28 Good luck and happy punting! Tune in to all the racing action from the west with the PR.Com subscriber’s package for $200 a year – just $4 a week. Josh Rodder www.perthracing.com.au