Belmont Saturday Perth Racing Preview BY JOSH RODDER Track is a Good 2, penetrometer is 6 (Perth measurements are different from those in the Eastern States, because of a different sandbased track), and the rail goes out to the sixmetre position. It was out three metres last Saturday with the fence ‘off’ by the last race. Midweek the rail was out 12 metres with a cutaway in straight. The Belmont track surface did just chop out a touch down towards the fence last Saturday following rain throughout the week. Rail movement should rectify that. Belmont is a great track that gives every horse its chance.
back and circle field when the sprint went on last time. She will run on resolutely. Her only try at 2000m+ was a 3.5-length fifth behind Bold Scene and Lambton Castle at the end of a campaign. Cezanne is another who will stay all day, but this race will not be run to suit. He will grind to the line, and he looks in for a successful Belmont winter racing season. Bet Ahead, if he leads, will battle on strongly and can be placed.
THE VERDICT: Happy to keep backing (1) Reverend Lovejoy who we backed first-up – we have not looked back since! He owes us nothing. (2) Star Encounter will run second, with (4) Cezanne third. Include (3) Bet Ahead for wide multiples.
THE VERDICT:
SATURDAY FORECAST FINE, BECOMING CLOUDY. MIN 9
MAX 24
Race 1 - Italian Festival Hcp, [Open], [80+] 2200m, 2:15pm [EST] They will not break any records in this – small fields over a journey in WA usually means they trot and canter, before pinging home sharply. As usual, this will be a tactical affair with the Kennedy brothers on board the two Adam Durrant favourites, Reverend Lovejoy (1) and Star Encounter (2). Bet Ahead (3) can lead if the jockey desires, with Hermungus (5) prominent, then Reverend Lovejoy and Cezanne (4). I’m going to stick with Reverend Lovejoy, who should be unbeaten from six starts this time in work, winning five. He is in careerbest form and has a real will to win. Back from 2000m to 1600m last week off a sevenday break and he was still too good for the above-average Roman Time. This is his fourth run this month, but you know Durrant would not be running the horse if there were any signs the Reverend was not handling the work rate. I believe he slots in for the ideal trail, fourth one off the fence with the biggest danger his stablemate Star Encounter back inside him, thus being dictated to by other runners. Star Encounter is a gifted staying mare who was forced to go
outsped, before making ground late. Last time, when up to 1000m with blinkers, he ran on nicely behind a likely type (black book Arcaxaar) in slick time at Belmont on May 25. He is by Blackfriars, out of a Kaapstad mare from the Star Way line and 1200m on debut around Belmont suits. He will be zooming home. Will get better the longer the races get. Freexaar (3) was given a nice ride and proved too strong for provincial grade at Northam (1100m) on May 21. He has drawn well and will get all the favours once again. Cobble Lane and Stoppitt (9) have shown enough at trials, but I believe they will improve with the experience under their belts. Lay Down Tommy can be placed from the good draw.
Race 2 – Elite Beef Hcp, [2yo], 1200m, 2:55pm [EST] Lots of natural speed expected in this event. I am predicting a strong speed with pressure on throughout. Carlton Street (6) showed speed at the trials and can lead if needed. Cobble Lane (7), another who showed natural toe in the trials, will be prominent; and Lay Down Tommy (2) and Pytheas (1) should be handy. I am happy to go with the all-the-way Belmont midweek debut winner Pytheas. He looks a gelding who is going to develop into a lovely three-year-old. He showed above-average ability in a Belmont trial win, when he sat back and ran over the top of his rivals, despite being a touch new. On debut he began quickly, rolled to the front and had a cushy lead, before kicking strongly for victory. I believe he will be even better with a sit. The form out of that midweek race is better than average. Fantastic Treasure (4) is still a work in progress for Neville Parnham. There is definite ability there and he raced a lot better with the blinkers off when third to Pytheas. His run was very good, considering he wanted to lay out throughout and Parnham has added a lugging bit to his gear. FT should follow Pytheas in the run and loom large in the straight. Debutant Moneghetti (8) has shown in two solid trials that he may be a future Classics horse. At his first trial he was
Back (1) Pytheas and save on (4) Fantastic Treasure. I reckon money will come for (8) Moneghetti and he will be thereabouts at the finish. (3) Freexaar, (7) Cobble Lane, (9) Stoppit and (2) Lay Down Tommy can all be placed.
Race 3 – Elite Lamb Hcp, [62+], [3yo, Open] 1000m, 3:35pm [EST] The afterburners will be on in this ... speed, pressure and the rest! Look for horse with soft run off the speed. Most Secretive (10) has enormous speed and can lead if the rider wishes. Gi ft Of Fury (8), Pure Fire (2), Golden Act (6), Moonlight Drive (3) and Buon Ricordo (4) will all be prominent. It was great to see Amelia's Reason (1) back in form when returning to Belmont earlier in the month – he sat back and went bang, leaving some handy older sprinters in his wake. Listening to Lou Luciani post-race, he believes he has tweaked some things in Amelia’s Reason’s routine and diet that have resulted in a return to form. Runner-up Freetime has since finished second to Averroes over the Belmont 1000m in record time. The way the race will be run, will suit AR’s sit-back-and-run-on 1000m style. Has a touch of class. Moonlight Drive was very good first-up. Travelled strongly outside the leader in a slowly run 1000m race at Ascot, when
unable to reel in the brilliant Revolition. With the benefit of that run, he is the danger. Most Secretive is a classy maiden filly returning from a spell. She was scratched Thursday from Northam to be saved for this harder assignment. Throughout her career they have tried to teach her to relax in races, with no success – she arches her neck and works overtime, making it near impossible to have a finish left. The engagement of Paul King is a good one for mine. I believe “The Duck” will let her roll and she may prove very hard to catch around the 1000m here. She led and was impressive winning a recent Belmont trial. First-up last time in she was placed behind the smart Shock Value when she took a sit and ran on nicely. Dan The Fox (7) was brave second up at this course/distance when he sat wide without cover and kept finding the line. The engagement of William Pike is big, and with the speed on, Dan will be charging home. I’m loath to leave out Buon Ricordo, Golden Act, Pure Fire and Gift Of Fury, who can all figure in the money.
THE VERDICT: Back (1) Amelia's Reason and (3) Moonlight Drive. (10) Most Secretive will give a bold sight if leads. (7) Dan The Fox is the value bet. Include (4) Buon Ricordo, (6) Golden Act, (2) Pure Fire and (8) Gift Of Fury for multiples.
Race 4 - Elite Veal Hcp, [7486], [3yo+], 1600m, 4:15pm [EST] Like A Vain (3) can lead and dictate terms to suit himself. He will be very hard to get past. Jay Four Ex (8) needs to revert to forward racing style, with Sky Marshall (7), Revy Jay (9) and Sunrange (11) handy. Jason Brown was straight back in the winner’s stall midweek at Belmont on board a Jim Taylor-trained youngster and it is great to see the dynamic duo back together after a Brown suspension. No jockey knows and rides the Taylor horses better. It was a very good effort first-up off two trials by Like A Vain at Belmont earlier in the month when, not the best away, he was ridden along to hold a spot and then never really relaxed in running. In the early part of the straight he did not get clear galloping room, and he ran on nicely. Had “back me next start” written all over him and this is a nice drop in class. Second-up last time in, with copybook preparation, he led, dominated and kicked strongly to win with 57.5kg. That win rates very highly and he can remain unbeaten at the Belmont 1600m. He jumps, leads and is
the one to beat. Sunrange is very honest and he battled on well behind some in-form horses last week. Should get a lovely run on the speed and will give his all, as he always does. Midtime (6) put in an eye-catching run last Saturday. He has drawn to get a cushy run three back on the fence and has some very good back-up stats. Classic Drop (1) has been up for a while, but continues to race well and has some excellent form lines. Jay Four Ex (8) and Sky Marshall (7) are value place chances.
THE VERDICT: Best bet of the day is (3) Like A Vain, so bet with confidence. (11) Sunrange, (6) Midtime, (1) Classic Drop, (8) Jay Four Ex and (7) Sky Marshall are the chasing pack.
QUADDIE FIRST LEG Race 5- Margaret River Fresh Hcp, [62+], [3yo, Open] 1400m, 4:50pm [EST] This will be a genuine-run race. Apache Mak (3) and Aussie Fighter (4) will be most prominent early. Mega Steel (8), Furocitee (9), Coppaclip Inn (5), Mio Fratello (7) and Gum Nut Guru (6) can all take up a position on the speed. I was quite taken with the win of Mega Steel at the Belmont midweeks last time. He began well, worked across from a wide gate, and was able to back off mid-race before finding another gear like a good horse in the straight to prevail. It was a handy midweek field and I believe he will be even better suited ridden with the sit. Pike will be able to position him with a lovely trail behind the speed from a good gate. He is a horse with plenty of scope to go right on with it. Lead Rope (1) is a smart filly who was brave last week. She had to do some work to race outside the speed, before digging deep and being nailed late by an inform older sprinting mare. There is still a query at 1400m, but she should get a beautiful run and the 2kg claim for Chloe Chatfield helps. She is the class. Aussie Fighter ran a creditable race against the older horses last time and he will give some cheek from the front – Greg Carige and Daniel Staeck are a very good trainer/jockey combo. Fun Spice (2) needs fast-run races to be competitive and will get that here. He found the line nicely and will be thereabouts again. There are several other live chances in a good field.
THE VERDICT: Keen to back (8) Mega Steel each-way. (1) Lead Rope is the danger and can be saved on. (4) Aussie Fighter and (2) Fun Spice won't be far away at the finish. Include (9) Furocitee, (7) Mio Fratello, (5) Coppaclip Inn and (6) Gum Nut Guru in multiples.
Quaddie 8, 1, 4, 2
QUADDIE SECOND LEG Race 6- Italian National Day Hcp, [62-74], [3yo+] 1400m, 5:25pm [EST] Even tempo. Not a lot of exposed pressure and the race could be dominated by the onspeed horses. Keys Ace (3) and Strait Laced (13) should be right on top of the speed, from Poly Ollie (7) in a handy spot. This is a very open race. I have been taken by the trials and Perth debut of former Kiwi mare Strait Laced. She worked forward and travelled strongly outside the speed firstup, when she fought on strongly – despite the price of the winner, the race rates highly on speed ratings. Here, she is drawn beautifully, has the minimum weight and has Pike. She is by Pentire and she will definitely improve as the campaign goes on. She gets her chance to shine in this race. Master Marlon (10) is in career-best form and his two runs in the Sky Channel series were very good. Raced tight in the straight last time and continued to find the line. That was a high rating race and he will be zooming home again. Poly Ollie is fitter for two runs back from a spell and will get a lovely run in transit. Bannerkens (1) ran a nice finishing section first-up, when she was off the bit and chasing a long way from home. Drawn well and will be helped by the steadier tempo. The first-up runs of (9) Fight To Live, (4) Mighty Ronnie and (11) Frisson were all very good. Keys Ace and (5) Monaco Prince will be competitive.
THE VERDICT: I like (13) Strait Laced, so back her and save on (10) Master Marlon. (7) Poly Ollie and (1) Bannerkens can mix it. Include (9) Fight To Live, (4) Mighty Ronnie, (11) Frisson, (3) Keys Ace and (5) Monaco Prince in multiples
Quaddie 13, 10, 7, 1, 9, 4, 11, 3, 5
QUADDIE THIRD LEG Race 7 - Western Meat Packers Roma Cup, [Group 3], [Open], [2yo+], [WFA] 1200m, 6pm [EST] It’s hard to read who will lead, and how the race will be run. I am expecting Sheenasaidgrey (12) to take up the running, with very little pressure. Grand Nirvana (11), Kens Double (10), Harvard (9), Hadabeclorka (4) and Universal Ruler (8) all can be prominent. I believe that threeyear-old colt Grand Nirvana has the potential to be the best horse in the state. It was an enormous performance to return with a win in an open 1200m race, without the benefit of a trial, following a tough summer campaign, which included mammoth runs in the Railway and Kingston Town. He has untapped ability and can take another step forward here. After beginning well first-up, he travelled strongly behind the speed and then dug deep to just nail classy open sprinters including Group 1 winner Megatic and one of the fastest horses in the state Vain Raider, in 1.09:92. He strips fitter, gets a great run once again and despite the WFA scale being not as enticing as his last handicap weight pull, he will look the winner at some stage. Tarzi (1) has had a stellar 2008-09 racing season with two Burswood Entertainment Complex “horse of the month” awards. The last time he was freshened he was able to win the Listed Cyril Flower at Ascot in February, under handicap conditions, with 58.5kg. Well placed at WFA and he will just need some luck in the straight from his inside gate. Idyllic Prince (2) was not suited first-up behind Grand Nirvana, when he over-raced on the speed and was only beaten a short head into fourth place. Jason Brown takes the mount – expect a quieter ride and he will be storming home. He has an electric turn of foot when saved up for a late burst. A pulling bit has been added to his gear. Spirited One (13) is a classy mare resuming without a trial. She has an excellent fresh record including a first-up win last time around when she won the Jungle Mist. The Verglas breed really explodes fresh, and she will get back, before flashing home. Universal Ruler, Harvard, Sheenasaidgrey and Hadabeclorka can all play a part if they produce their best form.
THE VERDICT: I am happy to back (11) Grand Nirvana each-way, but (1) Tarzi and (2) Idyllic
Prince are great winning chances. Watch betting with (13) Spirited One. (8) Universal Ruler, (9) Harvard, (12) Sheenasaidgrey and (4) Hadabeclorka must be included in multiples.
Best Bet Race 4, No 3: Like A Vain
Value Bet Race 5, No 8 : Mega Steel
Quaddie 11, 1, 2, 13
Good luck and happy punting! Josh Rodder www.perthracing.com.au
QUADDIE FOURTH LEG Race 8 - Perth Meat Export Hcp, [68-80], [3YO+], 1200m, 6:35pm [EST] Genuine tempo will be set by Kim Currency (5), with Werd (8), Western Force (1), Manahatn (9) and Casanova Jack (13) prominent. Kim Currency has a high cruising speed and was impressive leading all the way first-up. He was a second-up winner at his second career start and from a nice gate he can dominate once again from the front. Malcolm Burnett has an amazing strike rate with his runners and the horse is unbeaten at 1200m, and at the Belmont 1200m. Manahatn, resuming for a new yard, trialled very well. He box seats and will chase hard. Forget the latest first-up effort on a bog track and he will play a part. Werd is honest, but I doubt he can turn the tables on Kim Currency. Probably needs to try to settle over these shorter journeys so he can stretch to 1400m and 1600m. Round Tuit (10) can really explode when ridden quietly, as we saw last start in the Sky Channel final. Will get the race run to suit, so watch for him late. The problem is he has some horses that will not come back to him in the straight. Radiant Prince (12) was very good first-up for new yard behind a subsequent winner. Kanturk (3) always races well fresh, while Western Force, Storm Closure (2), Casanova Jack, Storm On By (7) and Anasazis (6) are all able to cause an upset on their day.
THE VERDICT: Keen to back (5) Kim Currency again and save on (9) Manahatn. Include (8) Werd, (10) Round Tuit, (12) Radiant Prince, (3) Kanturk, (1) Western Force, (2) Storm Closure, (13) Casanova Jack, (7) Storm On By and (6) Anasazis in multiple bet types.
Quaddie 5, 9, 8, 10, 12
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