FOCUS ON 4TH LEG Probably the best chance of keeping the cost of investment in this Big6 down is to risk on the fourth leg, the Hobartville Stakes. To allow some scope in the difficult other legs, we suggest you go one-out (3) Youthful Jack, or take him with the exciting Melbourne horse (8) Mic Mac, who is having his first run in Sydney. Narrowing down the last leg is a risky option, as it is a very open race, but could be essential if you need to go wide in the Hobartville.
FORM A SYNDICATE
$1344
1,3,6 /3,10 /2,4,5,8 /3,8 /1,7,8,9 /1,2,3,4,6,10,12
Caulfield & Rosehill, February 28, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.50pm
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 3.30pm
THIRD LEG 4.10pm
FOURTH LEG 4.30pm
FIFTH LEG
The Yalumba 160 (1800m) R5 Caulfield
Sportingbet Gold Cup (2000m) R6 Caulfield
Futurity Stakes (1600m) R7 Caulfield
Hobartville Stakes (1400m) R7 Rosehill
JRA Stakes (1200m) R8 Caulfield
Millie Fox Stakes (1300m) R8 Rosehill
The Group 2 Yalumba 160, aka Autumn Classic, is the middlepin of the Melbourne autumn 3YO features, between the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (1600m at MV) and the G1 Cadbury Guineas (1600m at Flemington). Four winners of the Autumn Classic have gone on to win the Guineas, but just as many have taken out the AJC Derby (2400m) at Randwick. This year’s edition looks more in line with the Derby, and three horses stand out – (1) Pr e E m in e n c e, (3) Exc elltastic and (6) D e f in it iv e. We fancied Pre Eminence, and he duly saluted at odds, in the Alister Clark when he circled the field from last. In that race, Excelltastic worked on the pace before finishing fourth, while Definitive didn’t have the turnof-foot of Pre Eminence, but ran home strongly for third. Only the ex-Kiwi now Sydney-trained (7) Gig in o is a threat from his good draw.
The scratching of Banana Man (running at Moonee Valley on Friday night) opens up this race to two main chances. This is the leg in which we are going to take the risk and go narrow, because later on we are committed, especially in Sydney, to go wide. Four main hopes exist here and all are last-start winners – (3) R oad T o R oc k, (4) Ab Almalik, (6) G o d’s Han d and (10) Flyin g M o n t y. If you can afford to include all four, that’s great, otherwise we are ranking Road To Rock and Flying Monty as the two main chances, with special interest in Flying Monty who comes off a 0-72 2000m win at Mornington on Feb. 18, after which trainer Peter Moody labeled her the best stayer he has trained. That’s a rap good enough for us. Road To Rock will appreciate this extra distance. (1) K ib b u t z may need another run.
This is a tricky affair in that it lacks a stand-out prospect. Two of the field of eight can’t win – (6) Ann e n k o v and (7) R u b ijo n. The other six have the talent to win on their day. (4) Alamosa will be favourite and he’s our top pick on the strength of his zesty late finish for second behind Maldivian in the Group 1 Orr Stakes (WFA 1400m) here on Feb 8. We rate him just ahead of the in-form (8) T im e Mat t e r s, who jumps dramatically from handicaps to Group 1 level at WFA. The way this race is going to be run, an on-pacer like Time Matters, who is very fit, will take a lot of running down. (5) Lig h t Fantastic is the big query. His trainer doubts him at 1600m, but on his best form he is a threat. (2) Nico n e r o is drawn (1) to get a cosy run and he won this race last year. (1) El Se g u n d o and (3) Sce nic S h o t can win on their best form.
This is a wonderful edition of the Hobartville, a race that has been won by such notables as Racing To Win, Lonhro, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Danewin, Shaftesbury Avenue, Imagele, Todman, Flight and Baguette. The impressive (3) Yo u t h f ul Jack will be trying to follow the deeds of Racing To Win, who in 2006 won the Hobartville and the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap (1600m at Randwick). Youthful Jack has won the key lead-up, the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes (1200m) in fine style. He relished the slow track and the fire will be out of this surface. Only three others can seriously threaten him. They are (6) D esu e t u d e, (8) Mic Mac and (9) R o c k K in g d o m. Desuetude missed last week’s Apollo Stakes because of the wet, but he looks suited here. Mic Mac’s Melbourne form is outstanding (3 from 3), while Rock Kingdom gets a good draw (1) for a change.
Not a race in which we can go narrow, in fact we need to go as wide as we can. We are looking down the weights for our top picks. (7) R o yal Esp r it and (8) M o n dan o come out of the same race, the Doveton Handicap (1100m) here on Feb 8, when both worked home well wide out not far from the placegetters. The extra 100m suits both. (9) Nin e Tales, from the Mick Price stable, has won his past three in restricted grade, including his last two at Sandown over 1300m and 1200m. We trust Price has found the right race. (1) L e t G o T h o m m o backs up from last week when he caught the eye with a late burst wide out for 8th (3.5 lens) behind Swiss Ace in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m). Easier here. Also consider (3) Falaise and the speedy (4) No r t h e r n Po in t . Risk the Hareeba Stakes winner (6) B o n d S t r e e t and runner-up (10) T e tsu Gama.
A good field of fillies and mares, and again we need to go as wide as possible. What makes this race even trickier to assess is the fact that two emergences (13) Lust r e Lad y and (14) M o n tana Fly e r are right in the mix should a place in the field come their way. The top seven guaranteed of a start are: (1) B el o n g T o Many, who was terrific behind Hot Danish at Randwick; (2) Chinc h illa R o se , on the strength of her best form and the prospect of a firmer track; (3) Imananabaa, a quality NZ mare; (4) Ne r oli, a winner of five from nine, but first-up; (6) Illuminat e s, a strong finisher who should get a soft run from barrier one; (10) Anat o m ica, forgive her run on slow ground last time – top show at her best; and (12) Raise, a superior wet-tracker who ran on very well against the C&Gs at Randwick last time out. Good luck with this one.
1 – 3, 6 – 7
3, 10 – 4, 6
4, 8 – 2, 5 – 1, 3
3 – 6, 8, 9
7, 8, 9 – 1 – 3, 4
1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 12–6–13, 14
4.50pm
SIXTH LEG 5.10pm