FOCUS ON THE SECOND LEG No doubt the key to getting this Big6 is to make sure you can afford to take as many in the Newmarket Handicap (leg 3) – with 23 starters and a host of chances – as you can. To achieve that, there must be a compromise elsewhere, and that should be leg two, in which Typhoon Tracy could be the banker. We have thrown in Marveen as an extra chance in that leg, but one-out Typhoon Tracy means you can go deeper into the Newmarket than we have with our eight picks.
FORM A SYNDICATE
$1200 1,2,3,6,7 /6,7 /7,10,15,17,20,21,22,23 /2,3,4,5,12 /4 /2, 3,13
Flemington, March 7, 2009 FIRST LEG 1.15pm
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 1.55pm
THIRD LEG 2.35pm
FOURTH LEG 3.20pm
FIFTH LEG 4.05pm
SIXTH LEG 4.45pm
Kewney Stakes (1600m) R4 Group 2
Schweppervescence (1400m) R5 Group 3
Newmarket Handicap (1200m) R6 Group 1
Cadbury Guineas (1600m) R7 Group 1
Darley Australian Cup (2000m) R8 Group 1
Melbourne Food & Wine Plate (1400m) R9 Listed
The last two winners of the Group 2 Kewney Stakes have gone on to win the Group 1 Schweppes Oaks (2000m) at Morphettville in Adelaide (Zarita and Anamato), which is not only an indication of the quality of 3YO filly this race attracts, but also where they are likely to be headed. This is not an easy affair. It includes two genuine Group 1 class fillies, last year’s Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m, Caulfield) winner (1 ) Gal lica and the runner-up in the Group 1 VRC Crown Oaks (2500m, Flemington), (2) Miss S carlat ti. Both showed a return to form with a second and third respectively behind Gai Waterhouse’s impressive filly, (3 ) Gol d Water, in the Group 2 Angus Armanasco Stakes (1600m) at Caulfield on Feb. 21. Include the promising (6) Lamarr and the improving (7) Reverberate s.
This is a big field of mares made more difficult to access by the likely short-priced favourite, (7 ) Typhoon Tracy, drawing barrier 16. Trainer Peter Moody was unperturbed by the gate, citing the fact the Flemington 1400m favours on-pace runners. Typhoon Tracy, who is unbeaten in three starts (all in town), should be able to dictate and win if she can cross easily enough. If you are game enough to make her a banker, then you can go wider in the Newmarket Handicap. Those wanting to play safe should include the classy topweight, (1) E sk imo Queen, who resumes from the spring when she had two unplaced runs at Group 1 level. Any rain will help. (6) Marveen ran nicely first-up at Caulfield and her record at Flemington is first class (3-2-1-0), and she has Oliver up. (3 ) Fly ing Ruby is racing well and (4) Pr ima Nova is suited here.
As usual for this surge down the straight we have many chances, so this is the race in which to go wide. Our top pick is (17) Secre t Flyer, who has been working through his classes nicely without taking on any of the big names. This has ensured he is in with a nice weight (52.5kg) for a 5YO at the peak of his form. We expect a big first-up run from (10) Ab solu t Glam. She’s on her home track and trainer Danny O’Brien has her primed. Track specialist (2) Swic k is going as well as he was when he won the Group 1 Patinack Classic here in the spring. The feature of this race is its high-class 3YOs – (15 ) Northern Me teor, (2 0) Dupor th, (21 ) Time Thief, (22) A ich i and (2 3) F ist Of Fury go in to the mix. Of the others, Oakleigh Plate winner (7) Sw iss Ace is the next in line.
The key form-line for this comes through the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield on Feb 21, when (2) Fravashi finally got some luck and ran down the smart (4) N ic coni. Apart from Fravashi, the horse that caught the eye was ( 5) Hear t Of Dream s, who went back at the start from his wide draw and then stormed home for an outstanding third. In an effort to narrow this leg down a bit, we are taking the line that Fravashi has Nicconi covered, but from barrier 2 Heart Of Dreams is a serious threat. Two horses can cause an upset: ( 3) Dr Do ute’ s was disappointing at Caulfield but blinkers go on and he won the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes over this course in the spring; and it was hard not to be impressed by the win of (12) Huxssen at the Sandown midweek on Feb. 25, so he goes into the mix.
This is the leg in which we must gamble on the favourite (4) The seo as being the oneout anchor of this Big6. Theseo comes off a soft allthe-way win in the Group 2 St. George Stakes (WFA 1800m) at Caulfield on Feb. 21, and in the spring he showed his class and liking for this big, flat track by winning the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (WFA 2000m). Last season Sirmione won the Mackinnon-Australian Cup double, and in 2007 Pompeii Ruler won the St. GeorgeAustralian Cup double when the Australian Cup was run at Caulfield. Theseo should be able to dominate from the front, and it is hard to imagine him being run down. For those with the will, and the cash, to go wider, then the improving (8) Road To Ro ck and the good mare (1 0) Zarita, who will track Theseo, can go in.
The highlight of this race is the return of the almost-forgotten horse – the brilliant 3YO (2) Whobego tyou. The gelding returns from a niggling injury that meant he wasn’t ready for the Cadbury Guineas. He hasn’t raced since he was a shock second behind longshot Rebel Raider, when $1.75 favourite, in the Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m, Flemington) in the spring. Before that he scored one of the most emphatic victories recorded in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m). Whobegotyou meets some seasoned old campaigners here and he must lump 58.5kg, giving 1kg to 2008 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap winner (3) Mr Baritone, who had no luck in the Hareeba Stakes at Mornington last start. Down in the weights is the inform (13) Lord Mo nty, who is stepping beyond 1200m for the first time, but the 1400m course here suits speed horses.
2, 5 – 3, 12 – 4
4 – 8, 10
2, 3 – 13
1, 2, 3 – 6, 7
7 – 6 – 1, 3, 4
10,17 – 7,15,20,21,22,23