FOCUS ON THIRD LEG The risky leg in the quaddie set out below is the fifth leg, in which we have gone narrow with (1) Racing To Win and (5) Aichi. But if you think you can narrow down the George Ryder Stakes (third leg) – we have gone for seven after seriously contemplating going for only two (2-All Silent & 13-Whobegotyou) and going wide in The Schweppervescence – then the option is to do so and go wider in either the Golden Slipper (leg four) or the fifth leg.
FORM A SYNDICATE
Rosehill, April 4, 2009 FIRST LEG 1.45pm
$1764
1,2 / 1,2,10 /1,2,4,5,6,13,15 / 1,8,9 / 1,5 /1,2,3,4,7,8,12
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 2.25pm
THIRD LEG 3.10pm
FOURTH LEG 4.05pm
FIFTH LEG 4.50pm
SIXTH LEG 5.30pm
Queen Of The Turf
The BMW
(wfa 1500m) R4
(wfa 2400m) R5
George Ryder Stakes (wfa 1500m) R6
Golden Slipper Stakes (1200m) R7
The Schweppervesence (1200m) R8
Royal Parma Stakes (1400m) R9
This is a cracking edition of this Group 1 race for fillies and mares that has developed into a clash between the three Group 1 winning mares in the race – (1 ) Foren sic s, (2) Ho t Danish and ( 5) C ulminate. If you throw in the lightlyraced but very promising (14 ) Champagne Harmony – who has the talent to go to Group 1 level and will appreciate the extra distance – and we believe we have this race covered. Forensics won this race last year to provide a memorable first Group 1 win for her trainer Peter Snowden, and the last with Woodlands for her former owner Bob Ingham, who sold his racing empire to Darley. Her first-up second to All Silent in the G2 Canterbury Stakes (1300m, Rosehill) was a beauty. Hot Danish missed the G1 Coolmore Classic in preference for the WFA conditions of this race. Importantly, she likes the wet.
Master trainer Bart Cummings hasn’t won a Group 1 The BMW since Beau Zam bolted home by 5.5lens on a wet track in 1988 – it was Cummings’ third win in the WFA staying race. (1) Vie wed is set to give Cummings win number four, and the great man has been meticulous in his preparation of the 2008 Melbourne Cup winner. Two weeks ago, when Viewed ran on for second behind Theseo in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes (WFA 2000m), it was obvious that the 2400m of The BMW would suit the entire. Importantly, Viewed is very good on rain-affected tracks – he won the G2 Brisbane Cup (2400m) by 7lens on a bog. (2) The seo remains the horse to beat. He will get a soft lead, as in the Ranvet. The wet track is of some concern. (3) Ma ster O’ Reilly has claims, as does (10) Zarita. The roughie to watch is (9) Mr Tip sy, a mudlark.
This is a tremendous race with many chances – bringing together some of the best, inform horses in training. At the top end we have (2) All S ilen t, who was so impressive winning the G2 Canterbury Stakes (wfa 1300m) at Rosehill, and the outstanding 3YO ( 13) Whobego tyou, who couldn’t have been more impressive finishing second behind Heart Of Dreams in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) on the same day. Both are bound for the G1 Doncaster Handicap and they can fight this race out. Other chances include (1 ) Triple Honour (on wet ground), ( 4) L igh t Fan tastic (freshened and 1500m is ideal), (5) K ing M ufhasa (comes off two G1 wins in NZ), (6) Alamosa (winner of four G1 races) and (15 ) Fravash i (poorly ridden in the Cadbury Guineas, but a mudlark). We are tipping around (14) Northern Me teor until he shows his best form.
The wet track throws up a conundrum because there is no hint of any definite wet track form, so we can only go with what we know – and we know that there is an outstanding colt (1 ) Real Saga and two outstanding fillies (8 ) More Joyou s and (9) Rostova. We are confident that if the form runs true, the winner can come from this trio, with a strong leaning towards the big, strong colt in the wet. Real Saga should be unbeaten in five starts – his only defeat was a luckless 2 nd behind Reward For Effort in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. More Joyous is a brilliant little filly and she has a terrific turn-of-foot, and Rostova can be forgiven her Blue Diamond fifth when she got her tongue over the bit. (3) Manha ttan Ra in and (2) Reward For Effort have claims, and respect the longshots (6) Phelan Ready and (15 ) Marquar dt.
The fact that (1) Ra cin g To Win (three from four on slow ground) has 61kg and his nearest rival at the weights has only 53kg indicates the class edge he has on this field. The grey has won five with three seconds (mostly at the highest level) on this track and he has warmed up for this with two good trials – after missing a run two weeks ago because of a hoof injury. He remains the top pick, but we need some back-ups. (5) Aichi gets 8kg from Racing To Win and he comes off a terrific third behind Scenic Blast in the Newmarket Hcp (1200m) at Flemington. ( 3) Mr. Barito ne has won four from eight on slow/heavy ground, while (7) Gol d Trail only needs to run to his G2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) second behind Burdekin Blues on this course on Feb 7 to be a chance. (2) F igh ting F und has won three from six starts firstup.
We will need to go wide here. The interesting runner is (1 ) Dao Dao, who was a good horse in Hong Kong and returned for a solid fourth behind Judged in the G3 Liverpool Stakes (1300m) at Randwick on March 7. Darren Beadman rides – and he rode him for two wins pre-HK. The query is the wet ground. (2) March ing is honest but struggling to break through – this is a drop in class from his second to Solo Flyer in the G3 Ajax Stakes (1500m) last week. OId (3 ) New ton’s Rin gs handles the wet and he’s won five races here, while (4 ) Royal D iscre tion has the strongest form-line through his third behind All Silent in the G2 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) here two weeks ago. The wet track will suit (7) Musket, while ( 8) Pin s O n Parade will run a cheeky on-pace race. There are good reports about the ability of ex-kiwi (12 ) Shin ing L ig ht, now with Gai Waterhouse.
1, 2 – 5 – 14
1, 2 – 10 – 3, 9
2, 13 – 1, 4, 5, 6, 15
1, 8, 9 – 2, 3 – 6, 15
1, 5 – 3, 7 – 2
4 – 1, 2, 12 – 3, 7, 8