ROSEHILL PREVIEW April 3, 2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200M) Race 7, 4.05pm (Sydney time) Since Canny Lad ploughed through the mud to win the Golden Slipper in 1990, the famous race for juveniles has been run on a heavy track only twice – in the last two years. There has been something synonymous in those wins by Sebring (2008) and Phelan Ready (2009) – both youngsters are sons of the stallion More Than Ready and both came from near last on the turn. With Saturday’s Golden Slipper predicted to be run on a heavy track, punters will be looking for horses with links to wet tracks; a tough assignment because 2YOs have little or know wet track form, and their racing patterns are not clearly defined. More Than Ready has two runners this year – the Gai Waterhouse-trained pair Brightexpectations and More Strawberries. Both have more going for them than the fact they are by an in-form, wet-track producing sire. Waterhouse rates them highly, and More Strawberries’ dam Milva is by one of the best mudlarks I have seen, the great Strawberry Road. Golden Slippers are rarely cut and dried, and this year is no exception. The Queensland filly Military Rose deserves her favouritism and I can find no reason not to tip her. In fact, I believe that she is likely to be a drifter on race day as the “tips” start to flow for the others … and they will. The barrier draws have been kind to the favourite. With pace either side of her, she can drop into a cosy position behind the speed. It’s her acceleration that puts her apart from her rivals. She has won on slow ground (at
SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
Doomben on Boxing Day) although it was her least convincing performance. The track was also dead/slow when she won Magic Millions by panels and also dead on G2 Reisling Slipper Trial day when she trounced Solar Charged. The speed map looks pretty well defined. The flying Chance Bye will pounce on the lead from barrier three; Brightexpectations (barrier 4) should go with her to park second, right on the speed; and Crystal Lily, from barrier one, will be poised on the rails. Trainer John O’Shea has declared that he will instruct jockey Hugh Bowman to allow Solar Charged to run along from her barrier 13. I seriously doubt that Chance Bye can win. It’s a great story – cheap filly ($15k), battling trainer (Michael Tubman) and female jockey (Kathy O’Hara) – but not one I expect to have a happy ending. The pressure of this race will test the filly. The last horse to lead/win a Slipper was Dance Hero. The pace and pressure, and the wet track which may suit horses out wide, will ensure all runners have a chance. Hinchinbrook will be a lot fitter for last week’s battling third behind Brightexpectations and blinkers go on. I expect him to be charging late. Decision Time will get the ideal run three-back on the fence. More Strawberries has been heavily backed this week despite her barrier draw 14, but this strong filly is very highly-rated by stable jockey Nash Rawiller (he rides Brightexpectations), who said this week that she is as good as More Joyous. The tips: Military Rose to beat Hinchinbrook, Brightexpectations, More Strawberries, Crystal Lily and Decision Time.
AND ALSO There’s a fine line between “certainties” and “certainly good chances”, and sometimes And Also steps over it – sometimes by only the barest margin, as was the case with last week’s Rosehill Guineas when Zabrasive won a start too soon, nutting Rock Classic. There was only a whisker in it, but they don’t pay on second, whatever the margin. Guess that means Zabrasive is a “certainty” in the AJC Derby next week. Oops, better make that “certainly a good chance”. For this week, And Also suggests you punt on the visiting jockey. Take that to mean Darren Beadman at Rosehill if you like – he rarely heads back to Hong Kong empty-handed – but the fresh face being pushed your way is one Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins, a Canberra-based apprentice with potential as great as his name. Lovelock-Wiggins, only 17, will be in action at Caulfield, claiming 3kg on each of Peter Moody’s five runners, all at single-figure odds: Zelsnitz (Race 1), Tee Emar (R3), Al’s Best Mate (R4), Returntosender (R5) and Elumino (R8). Try one or two eachway. The best might be the one with the omen name – Returntosender – around the $5 mark. Moody is looking at taking on Lovelock-Wiggins fulltime, so he’ll be out to impress rather than, wait for it, being returned to sender. The non Lovelace-Wiggins bet at Caulfield is Light Fantastic in Race 3. Here’s a G1 performer against G3 opposition. He’s “certainly a good chance” and the $6 looks tempting. Stephen Howell