FLEMINGTON PREVIEW July 4, 2009 SILVER BOWL SERIES FINAL (1600M) Race 4, 2pm (Melb time) Spring form is good form at any time, but it is especially good form in the cold, dead of winter. Like now. While Paddy O’Reilly may have taken longer than 12 months to break his maiden – first-up at Bendigo (1400m) on June 11 – back in the 2008 spring the colt was a serious Group 1 Victoria Derby contender. His solid form against some of the best middle-distance 3YOs of the spring sits very well in the $100,000 Slickpix Silver Bowl Final (1600m) at Flemington. Bendigo was a bog, so a likely heavy track at Flemington won’t worry this promising galloper. Paddy O’Reilly looked a horse of great promise right from the start of his racing career, when he was trained by Russell Cameron – after winning a trial at Cranbourne, Paddy O’Reilly kicked off his racing career in May 2008 with a third, on a slow track, behind the very smart pair Dr Doute’s and Tindal in a Moonee Valley 1200m 2YO handicap. Cameron spelled the son of O’Reilly until the spring. The colt resumed with a solid sixth behind Lord Tavistock in the Listed Vain Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield in August, and followed that with a fourth behind the same horse, and the classy filly Romneya (2nd) and Excelltastic (3rd) in a $101,000 feature 3YO race at Flemington (1400m). The 3YO earned a Victoria Derby start by finishing third behind Pre Eminence and the filly Miss Scarlatti in the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield on October 18. Doubts about Paddy
O’Reilly being able to win the Derby as a maiden, as well as run a strong 2500m backed by a pedigree more suited to races run over 1600m, were well founded. He finished a tiring ninth behind Rebel Raider. Paddy O’Reilly was switched to Robert Smerdon for his return to racing. Jockey Mark Zahra may have got too far back on the colt at Bendigo on June 21, when they ran on late for fourth behind Red Hustler, and he has been replaced by Craig Williams. Paddy O’Reilly is one of Williams’ better rides on the day as he battles with Damien Oliver for the 2008-09 Melbourne jockeys’ premiership – they are equal on 65 wins. Oliver rides the topweight Rain In Africa, who last Saturday was a dominant winner at Flemington over 1720 metres on a good surface. All three of his wins are on firm tracks, and he has failed badly in his two runs on slow/heavy tracks. He may need more than a touch Oliver magic to get him home in the wet with 58kg. The danger to Paddy O’Reilly looks to be Red Hustler who circled the field from last at Bendigo. He showed a very good turn-of-foot and he has won on heavy ground – over 1600m on the same day PO’R won his maiden. Slither also won well at Bendigo over 1400m on June 11 (slower time than PO’R), and he beat home PO’R when third to Red Hustler there on June 21. He is a promising horse who is drawn well. Cascabel was good at Flemington on June 27 and looks the likely leader from his good draw. The tips: Paddy O’Reilly just ahead of Red Hustler, followed by Slither, Cascabel and Rain In Africa.
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Predicted positions on settling
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AND ALSO To state the obvious, backing horses (and jockeys) in form is a winning start in the ongoing battle with your bookie, and two to give you that start at Flemington on Saturday are Davcon (R6, the Winter Championship Final, 1600m) and Gran Sasso (R7, the AllVictorian Sprint Final, 1200m). Davcon is just one of many ‘good average’ horses aimed all winter at this $200,000 Listed race, so is no shoo-in. But he is in form – his Valley win on June 20 was the perfect warmup – he handles all going and Michael Rodd rides him well. Bet at $4-$5. The jockey angle is covered in R7, too, with Chris Symons handling Gran Sasso smoothly in recent runs. The Dehere gelding’s burst of speed in sealing his 1000m warm-up at this track last week puts him at the top of the ‘good average’ bracket in an otherwise ‘even average’ field. The one worry is the volume of rain before 3.55pm Saturday because he has never raced on a track listed as worse than dead. On dead or firmer, $3.50 looks juicy. More of the obvious: Damien Oliver and Craig Williams ride more winners than others because they are the best jockeys. Ollie got followers of this column – assuming you are out there – a nice collect last week with Starkron ($3) into Rain In Africa ($8.50), so it’s the Big W’s turn: most of his eight rides are at odds that can put you in the black with just one win; double up a couple and you can do very well. And the longest price (Zyzxx, $31) is a blowout chance against Gran Sasso. Stephen Howell