EAGLE FARM PREVIEW June 12, 2010 STRADBROKE HANDICAP (1400M) Race 7, 3.50pm (Brisbane time) While the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm should be expected to throw up a surprise lightly weighted winner, history shows that the handicap is a race usually won by a “good horse”. That said, this year’s top weight, Whobegotyou, will have to be at the top of his game to win under 57kg. The last horse to carry more than 56kg and win was the great Rough Habit, who did it in 1992 after winning the previous year with 55kg. Bart Cummings’ brilliant Campaign King won with 58.5kg in 1988, but you have to go back to Triton (1972) – 59kg – to find another horse to lump more than 56kg to win. That said, I believe Whobegotyou not only has the talent to win, but also he has had the perfect preparation. Trainer Mark Kavanagh has had the chestnut in work for a long time after an extended post-spring spell, deliberately missing the Melbourne and Sydney autumn carnivals for a winter campaign in Brisbane, at which the Stradbroke Handicap was his mission. Whobetgotyou warmed up with a terrific second behind Hot Danish in the G1 Doomben 10,000 (wfa 1350m, Doomben) two weeks ago. He will be a lot fitter and find spacious Eagle Farm much more suitable to his get-back, run-on style. I find it almost impossible to tip against him. If there is a serious threat, it will come from Bart Cummings’s exciting colt Latin News – and that threat will only materialise if Latin News, the first
SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
emergency, can find a place in the field. Latin News needed to win the Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes, over this course, last week, but could only manage a very unlucky third behind Girl Hussler. The powerful chestnut is a raw talent, and Cummings, who has won this race four times, rates him very highly. You should, too. The 3YO filly Melito is drawn to run well – she will come from barrier three if the emergencies miss out. History was against her in the Doomben 10,000 (she finished third behind Hot Danish) – no 3YO filly has won that weight-for-age race – but it’s a different story under the handicap conditions of the Stradbroke. Seven fillies and mares have won the Stradbroke since 1930, and five of them have been 3YO fillies (Wiggle won as a 2YO in 1958), the most recent being La Montagna in 2006. Melito is a better-performed filly than La Montagna, which is reflected in the fact she will carry 51.5kg, 3kg more. Once again, the barrier draw has been unkind to Ortensia (21). She needs to be ridden quietly, which means she will be a long way back on the bend – too far. I expect the New Zealand mare Culminate to run well. Phelan Ready let me down at Doomben, but may not have been suited around that track. Eagle Farm is more to his liking. Graceful Anna is a lightly-raced 3YO filly with a big future. She had no luck when 4th behind Catapulted over this course last week. From barrier two, she should get a lovely run behind the pace. The tips: Whobegotyou to beat Latin News, Melito, Phelan Ready, Culminate and Graceful Anna.
AND ALSO After last week’s wipeout you might think And Also is not reputable. Well, this column says to you, “Trust us, we’re here to find you a winner – however convoluted the reasoning!” So, let’s start with Flemington tomorrow and Trustu s, a horse that has won in the heavy and has always shaped as if he’d appreciate 1700m. There’s an omen, too. Wait for it ... he’s trained by Fran Houlahan and Brian Johnston, who are better known in the jumping game (Fran being the daughter of the late, great Jim Houlahan, a Hall of Fame jumps trainer). But this, R3, is a flat race, you say. Granted, but look at its name – the Lachal Handicap – and you are immediately reminded of the timehonoured Lachal Hurdle. At $7.50 in early markets, Trustus is well worth something eachway in a small field. And Also’s other left-field tip is Stoneb lack, $8 in R7 at Flemington. The reasoning – apart from the 3kg claim for Jake Noonan (who rides well) and being in the Robert Smerdon stable (is there a camp travelling any better?) – is that Stoneblack is just coming into form after ONLY seven starts this campaign. Last time in, he had 17 starts in the prep, with just a few three-week fresheners, and won at starts 12 (on a heavy track) and 13. He’s a trier and he’ll handle the conditions, so trust us when we say he can get the 2000m ... and the record shows there’ll be plenty of chances to get your money back if And Also has gone off a start or three early. Stephen Howell