MOONEE VALLEY PREVIEW February 13, 2010 WILLIAM REID STAKES (WFA 1200M) The whole outlook of the Group 1 William Reid Stakes (1200m, Moonee Valley) has changed with the scratching on Thursday of the pre-post favourite Black Caviar. It was almost certain that the big filly was going to dominate the William Reid from the front, despite her wide draw. Now we are left with a race without a known leader but with a mystery. I believe trainer Peter Moody (also the trainer of Black Caviar) will want his other runner Wanted to press forward to try to dictate the tempo of this race. Wanted, from barrier 2, is perfectly poised to either lead or sit outside the leader – if Light Fantastic pushes through from barrier one to hold him out. It makes for a very interesting race, as the main danger, Nicconi, who beat Wanted with a late rush in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (wfa 1000m) at Flemington two weeks ago, will be trying to emulate the performance. Nicconi won’t be suited if Wanted and Light Fantastic stroll along in front, making the Group 1 sprint a dash to the line. But where is the pressure going to come from? Jockey Damien Oliver won’t be too keen to ride Nicconi against his getback, run-on pattern, while Sniper’s Bullet (barrier 8) and Shellscrape (barrier 5) are unlikely to pressure the leaders, especially if Wanted bounces out at the start and gets there first. Nicconi is trying to become the sixth horse to complete the Lightning Stakes-William Reid Stakes double,
joining Apache Cat (2008), Miss Andretti (2007), Regimental Gal (2004), Zeditave (1989) and River Rough (1985). In his favour is his distinct liking for Moonee Valley’s Strathayr surface – three starts for two wins and a luckless third in the 2009 G1 Manikato Stakes. As I write this late on Thursday afternoon, outside it is as black as Lonhro as a big storm rolls across Melbourne (the rain came down in buckets). If the rain can stay around for another day, then Moonee Valley will offer a surface close to slow, which will bring the mudlark Shellscrape into the equation. Trainer Chris Waller has been pondering a William Reid start all week for the Sydney colt, who has next week’s Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m, Caulfield) as another option – the scratching of Black Caviar has got rid of one of the negatives, but Waller said he’d prefer a wet track to put the weight-for-age race ahead of next week’s handicap in which Shellscrape will be weighted light. If he runs, then Shellscrape could offer another option as a likely leader, but it hasn’t been his racing style this season. As a 2YO, Shellscrape was a jump-and-run colt, however, since Waller has had the son of Dane Shadow ridden more patiently, the sprinter has taken the next step to Group 1 class. Jockey Danny Nikolic replaces Corey Brown, who has decided to stay in Sydney. Turffontein, thanks to his inside barrier, is the “blow-out’ horse to cause an upset. The tips: Wanted to beat Nicconi, Shellscrape, Turffontein and Light Fantastic
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Predicted positions on settling
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Race 7, 4.05pm (Melbourne time)
AND ALSO Black Caviar is off the Moonee Valley menu tomorrow, but there’s still one a cut above – not in the 1200m William Reid, but in the next, the 1600m Sunline Stakes. It’s Zarita, of course, a perennial G1-G2 performer. If weights and class mean anything, she just wins, and that makes the $2.20 a steal. It’s a G2 race, but the other mares are a rung, even rungs, below. All right, our girl has won only one of her past 19 starts (10 were at G1), but that was this track, this distance and against a better lot of mares than the Sunline has thrown up. And first up, Zarita ran on nicely for third to Joku and Danzylum in a 1400m Listed race (Caulfield), so she’s on track to salute again at a more suitable distance. Fortunately, And Also is being written on a keyboard with the Z working – it was bung earlier in the week – because another betting suggestion is Mark Zahra’s mount Tizona (about $5). He’s a Lonhro colt, and Darley has a goldmine that is already producing plenty. Back to the Caviar-less William Reid: with rare rain about, the G1 highlight takes on a different shape – sufficiently different to suggest that the quality wet-tracker (and animal) Shellscrape is worth an investment at better than $4. His record is good, his luck hasn’t always been. One more thing: tomorrow could confirm whether Lloyd Williams’ Linton is one for the future. The Alister Clark is a huge class rise, so just watch and learn. Stephen Howell