DOOMBEN PREVIEW May 15, 2010 BTC CUP (WFA 1200M) Race 7, 3.50pm (Brisbane time) The Group 1 BTC Cup (wfa 1200m), run at Doomben on Saturday, has grown in stature, after beginning in 1964 (won by Rashlore) as a lead-up race to the Doomben 10,000. The BTC Cup has been a Group 1 race since 2006, when it was won by the New Zealand mare Gee I Jane; since then it has been won by the outstanding sprinters Bentley Biscuit, Apache Cat and last year by the 3YO colt, Duporth, who ran down Apache Cat and Bank Robber. This year’s contest offers four Group 1 winners – the tough New Zealander King Mufhasa, in-form mare Ortensia, Russeting and the crack 3YO filly Melito. I believe Shellscrape, a Group 2 winner and multiple Group 1 placegetter, has his chance to break through for a career-defining win. After a study of the speed map, I believe that Shellscrape is in a position to dictate the tempo of this race, and his strength at the end of 1200m should make it very difficult for the others, particularly Ortensia and Melito, to run him down. Shellscrape hasn’t raced since his luckless second behind Ortensia in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) at Randwick on April 17. No matter how many times I look at the video, and while appreciating the big performance of Ortensia, who came from last, I keep coming back to the fact that Shellscrape should have won. Jockey Dwayne Dunn parked him on the pace, sitting wide without cover, but when he was about to surge to the front, the wayward Definitely Ready,
who was leading, hung out badly and took Shellscrape’s running at the 350m. The interference cost Shellscrape considerable momentum, and a lot more ground than the short neck he was beaten. With no other natural leader in the race, I expect jockey Stathi Katsidis will press forward from barrier 10, whereas Hugh Bowman on Ortensia and Blake Shinn on Melito will settle midfield at best. It will be a tough task for them to run down a seasoned 3YO colt. Ortensia is a wonderful mare with a big finish, and like Shellscrape, she has won at Doomben, which is always encouraging. She will run well again, but I can’t help but think that the lack of tempo in this race will cost her. Melito is aiming to be the first 3YO filly to win the BTC Cup – the history shouldn’t be of any consequence because this filly has already beaten the best older sprinters in the G1 T J Smith (wfa 1200m) at Randwick on April 10, when she ran down Hot Danish and Mic Mac. She followed that with a solid second behind Hot Danish in the G1 All Aged Stakes (1400m, Randwick) two weeks later. Mic Mac is the interesting runner. The gelding is having his first run for new trainer Paul Messara after switching mid-campaign from Greg Eurell. Messara admits he has a lot to learn about Mic Mac in a short time. Interestingly, while Mic Mac is widely regarded as a genuine Group 1 horse, he has had five tries at the highest level for a record of four fifths and a third in the T J Smith last month. His best form is good enough to win this. The tips: Shellscrape to beat Mic Mac, Ortensia and Melito.
SPEED MAP
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Predicted positions on settling
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AND ALSO In its own inimitable – or is that imbecilic? – way, And Also offers, from sunny Singapore, two morals this weekend. The first flies in the face of the usual policy of considering it unwise to bet odds-on, and it is Rocket Man in Sunday’s Group 1 sprint at Kranji in Singapore. You might need to put your running shoes on to get the $1.75 on offer at TAB Sportsbet, but it is money for old rope and the odds are way better than the Singapore tote will offer about the local champ on raceday. Load up. The second good thing is a little more convoluted. It is that Clare Lindop will ride a winner at Morphettville tomorrow, perhaps more than one – she has six rides. How does And Also know this. Well, Ms Lindop is saying only that she has some good rides. She often has good rides, but there’s more to it than that. An explanation: this morning And Also ran into her at trackwork at Kranji, where she has a two-meeting licence, and she explained her weekend travel schedule … Four rides at Kranji tonight; fly overnight to Adelaide for six rides at Morphettville; fly overnight to Singapore, via Perth, for two rides at Kranji on Sunday. She wouldn’t bother rushing home and back if there wasn’t a Morphettville winner among Spirited Eagle (R1), Kelconi (R2), Impressive Eagle (R3), Streetfire (R5), Hidden Surprise (R6) and the omen mount, Conquering Journey (R7). Impressive Eagle looks the best. Stephen Howell in Singapore