EAGLE FARM PREVIEW June 20, 2009 WINTER STAKES (1400M) Race 7, 3.53pm (Brisbane time) The Winter Stakes (1400m), to be run at Eagle Farm on Saturday, was run for the first time as a Group 1 in 2007, when won by Nova Star. Two years later, and one of the best fields of Group 1 class fillies and mares will assemble for the final Group 1 race of the season. The capacity field of 20 horses (plus two emergencies) includes five outstanding Group 1 winners, including last year’s Winter Stakes winner Absolut Glam. The simple fact that the Winter Stakes is weight-for-age should be enough for the cream to come to the top, which is why I am tipping the brilliant Forensics, a three-times Group 1 winner, to beat the rising star filly Ortensia. The weight-for-age conditions play perfectly for Forensics, who would be giving her rivals a considerable amount of weight if the Winter Stakes was run as a handicap – as it is she will carry the same weight as mares who have struggled at Group 1 level, and only 1.5kg more than the 3YO fillies. Trainer Peter Snowden has had a patient wait to get Forensics to the post during this winter carnival. The constant deluge of rain that has meant most meetings have been run in heavy going, has forced Forensics, who prefers nothing worse than a dead rating, to sit at home in her box. Finally, as the Brisbane winter carnival comes to a close, the rain clouds have cleared, and the prediction that Eagle Farm will be a Good 3 is music to Snowdens ears.
SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
Forensics hasn’t raced since finishing 11th behind Danleigh in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m) on a bog track at Randwick on April 25. She hasn’t raced for 56 days, but her fresh record (two wins from five) is sound. Ortensia has been a winter highlight. She gained a start in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m), Eagle Farm) by winning the Group 2 QTC Cup (1300m) a week early. Her storming third behind Black Piranha in the Stadbroke, from near last, was the run of the race, and a great pointer to the Winter Stakes. My only concern is that Ortensia has had a tough campaign on wet ground, and trainer Tony Noonan has admitted the Winter Stakes wasn’t originally on the filly’s program. Absolut Glam ran a bottler to finish fourth in the Streadbroke – just as she did in 2008 before winning the Winter Stakes. Jockey Damien Oliver has jumped off Amberino to ride the mare for trainer Danny O’Brien. One of Forensics, Ortensia or Absolut Glam should win this race. Those looking for value should consider Group 2 Sunline Stakes (1600m) winner Subtle Cove, who will be fitter; the honest little filly Marveen; and the underrated Amberino, who showed her class in the autumn by winning the Group 2 Emancipation Stakes (1600m) at Randwick. The tips: Forensics to beat Ortensia and Absolut Glam – and then Marveen, Amberino and Subtle Cove.
TEMPO - GOOD The speed in this race should come from Imananabaa and Tempest Tost, who will need to cross from wide out. I will be looking for “run on” horses.
AND ALSO Right horse + right race = bet. Royal Ascot provided that equation this week with the Australian sprinter Scenic Blast, who won the King’s Stand more easily than he won our straight 1000m equivalent, the Lightning Stakes. And it threw up another with the Irish stayer Yeats, who has been talked down in Australia since he ran seventh in the 2006 Melbourne Cup, but after Thursday’s Gold Cup (4000m) romp is now being talked up in the UK as the greatest flat stayer – ever! Great effort to win his fourth Gold Cup on end, but antipodean eyes saw the equation at the start of this column, not greatest ever. The others were plodders. That ‘four-timer’, however, brings us to our hero, Takeover Target, who will run in his fourth Golden Jubilee Stakes (1200m) on end at Royal Ascot on Saturday and try to improve on a third, a second and a fourth (when injured). For eachway bettors with access to overseas corporates. it is ‘right horse + right race = bet’. TT’s drawn nicely (7) and you should get better than $10. The proviso is that the track is not too firm – the Singapore flop showed those old legs can’t take the pounding. The Singapore sprint winner Sacred Kingdom, an ‘almost Aussie’ (bred here, ridden by Brett Prebble), can handle fast going. He is rated the world’s best, he jumps from gate 8 and he is pressing South African JJ The Jet Plane (barrier 9) for favouritism around the $4 mark. Turn on TVN or Sky just after midnight on Saturday (the race is at 12.45am, eastern states time). Stephen Howell