RANDWICK PREVIEW December 19, 2009 VILLIERS STAKES (1600M) The Group 2 Villiers Stakes (1600m) at Randwick has a long history going back to 1892, and in 1945, the legendary Bernborough kicked off his amazing career by winning the race as a 6YO before returning to racing in 1946 to win 12 Stakes races – nine of them at Group 1 level. Despite the history and the presence of Bernborough in the winners’ list, the Villiers is lucky to hold its place as a Group 2 event. Modern records show that this quality handicap is Group 3 level, at best. And while the patterns’ committee is quick to downgrade Group races run in the smaller states, it is time it took a look at the Villiers. That said, punters care very little about the rating of a race. There will be a winner, and they want to find it. This year’s Villiers has a fairly easy to define speed map – the natural leader is the Gai Waterhouse-trained top weight Rabbuka, and if he gets his own way he will be hard to run down. Rabbuka resumed at Rosehill on December 5 and dominated from the front to win the Listed Festival Stakes (1500m), beating Villiers contender Parfumier. It was hardly a surprise win as Rabbuka has a first-up record that reads four wins from five starts. However, he is nowhere near as potent second-up – four tries for one win and Rabbuka also is a Randwick maiden. In his favour is the fact that he has a tactical artist on his back in Nash Rawiller, who should be able to hold out the Queenslander Rags To Riches, coming across from a wide barrier (14). It’s doubtful Rawiller will want to
trail the visitor, who might come back on him after working forward. I’m tipping a run-on horse to win, and after tossing up between Lyncean Academy and Palacio de Cristal, I have decided on the seasoned Lyncean Academy, especially with the forecast of some rain. The dead-to-slow track is ideal for this son of Galileo. Lyncean Academy drops 2.5kg on his moderate sixth in the Festival Stakes, when he got too far back in a leaderdominated race. The bigger track and the rise to 1600m – he has won three of his four starts at the trip – is perfect. Jockey Chris Munce won last year’s Villiers on the late-closing Something Anything, who has a similar racing style to Lyncean Academy. Palacio de Cristal is something of an enigma. The Grahame Begg-trained mare looked a star after winning at Flemington during the 2008 spring carnival, but she mixes her form. She bounced back at Kensington on December 11, when she burst home to win impressively, under Rawiller and 58kg, over 1500m. She drops to 52kg and Peter Wells takes the ride. Expect Parfumier to run well. He meets Rabukka on 1.5kg better terms from his second in the Festival Stakes, when he loomed up to win at the 200m, but died on his run. A more even tempo will suit him, as it will the good mare Hairy, who has a big finish. Spinney has had a freshen since his second behind Macknuckle in the Listed Canberra Cup (2000m) on Nov. 29 after winning the Gosford Cup (2100m) before that. He should run well from a good barrier (2). The tips: Lyncean Academy from Palacio de Cristal, Rabbuka, Parfumier and Hairy.
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Predicted positions on settling
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Race 6, 4.25pm (Sydney time)
AND ALSO Can we have some heresy here and suggest in a punting column that, after a triple-header in town last weekend (Moonee Valley, Flemington and Moonee Valley) and other city meetings at Caulfield on Wednesday and the Valley tonight, you hold your horses at Flemington tomorrow? Some trainers obviously are, as acceptances for the first three races on the big track at headquarters show – the 2YO has six, the 3YOs six and seven. There might be a bit of quality there with Marconi (R2), but there’s no value in the red figures, despite trainer Mick Price looking to make a good thing of it by claiming 3kg with the inform Jason Maskiell. Races 4-8 have the quantity, but not much more, so why not bide your time until the “time-honoured” races on Boxing Day at Caulfield and New Year’s Day at Flemington. The Heath has two Listed races, the Christmas Stakes (1200m) and the Lord Stakes (1700m), and there’s sure to be postChristmas cheer in those. Flemington has the Group 3 Standish Handicap (1200m) and the Listed Bagot Handicap (2800m), two chances to start your 2010 punting on a classy note. For those who simply can’t wait for Boxing Day, the omen tip tomorrow at Flemington is in the third – Testa My Patience. You can get $4. For those looking further afield, the Group 2 Villiers Stakes (1600m) at Randwick definitely is time-honoured. And Also likes Rabbuka. There’s $4 on offer there, too. Stephen Howell