ROSEHILL PREVIEW March 27, 2010 ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000M) Some wonderful and famous horses have won the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) in its rich history, which began in 1910 (won by Electric Wire) when the race was held in the spring. The Guineas, along with the AJC Derby, was moved to the autumn in 1978. Greats like Octagonal, Eremein, Tie The Knot, Sky Heights, Surfers Paradise, Strawberry Road, Kingston Town, Dulcify, Wenona Girl, Tulloch, Ajax, Phar Lap and Amounis have won the Guineas, which began as a 1400m race and increased to 1800m between 1915 and 1947 before settling on its present distance of 2000m; it is an ideal lead-up race to the AJC Australian Derby (2400m). This year’s edition of the Rosehill Guineas could prove to be one of those races to provide us with a memorable winner. The Randwick Guineas winner Shoot Out and Bart Cummings’ Australian Guineas winner Rock Classic are exceptional talents. And also engaged is an exciting batch of young stayers – Zabrasive, Cosmocrat, Captain Sonador and Hanks. As much as I am tempted to tip one of the up-and-comers, I am sticking with Shoot Out and Rock Classic to fight it out. It might be a different story at Randwick on Derby Day when the likes of Zabrasive and co. will have their chance in a more suitable race for their staying prowess. Shoot Out is an exciting talent. He should be unbeaten in his three autumn Sydney runs, and he has claimed two of the important lead-ups – the G2 Royal Sovereign Stakes
(1200m, Randwick) and the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m, Randwick). His defeat, in between those runs, was at Rosehill when he ran a luckless second behind Monton in the G2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m). There are some pundits doubting that Shoot Out is a genuine stayer. No doubt he is brilliant and his record from 1200m to 1600m is outstanding, but he’s a big finisher with a pedigree reeking of staying power – he’s by the champion stayer and young sire High Chaparral (by Sadler’s Wells) from a mare by the stout influence Pentire. The 2000m of the Guineas is a perfect transition for him after runs over 1200m, 1400m and 1600m. Rock Classic might be a superstar. He’s winning while trainer Bart Cummings scratches his head trying to straighten him up. The gelding was all over the place winning at Rosehill (1500m) on February 27, but he looked awesome powering away from Set For Fame, Linton and Denman to win Cummings’ first Australian Guineas, under the guidance of Michael Rodd. Zabrasive, by Zabeel, should start to excel from 2000m and further. He has emerged from the relative obscurity of a restricted 1350m win at Wyong to run a terrific, late-closing fourth behind Shoot Out in the Randwick Guineas. Whether he’s primed for this race I’m not sure, but the Derby looks his race. Cosmocrat was very unlucky in the Randwick Guineas and he will go around a lot longer odds than the hype-horse Zabrasive. Hanks, Captain Sonador and the filly Run For Naara also have claims. The tips: Shoot Out to beat Rock Classic, Zabrasive, Hanks and Cosmocrat.
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Predicted positions on settling
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Race 7, 4.10pm (Sydney time)
AND ALSO At times people try to be too cute in finding winners. And, yes, And Also knows it often attempts just that. Well, AA has had a simply brilliant idea for this weekend, having realised there’s no need to sift through the field in looking at the G1 Rosehill Guineas – that’s been done by the bloke who really knows, in his main preview on The Thoroughbred’s newsletter. All you have to do is go with one (or both) of the best horses, Rock Classic and Shoot Out. They are not at the cramped odds often served up about young horses who win G1 races ultra impressively – Rock Classic made the supposed top raters look second rate in the Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington; and Shoot Out picked himself up to win the Randwick Guineas bravely and remarkably over the same distance on the same day at a different track. And Also doesn’t claim to be Einstein here – early punters have worked out the relativity and the odds have tightened. By Friday morning, TAB Sportsbet had wound Shoot Out in from $3.30 to $3.10 and Rock Classic from $3.40 to $3.20. The conservatives can back one and save on the other; the dashers can quinella them. Rock Classic is AA’s preference for two reasons – Bart Cummings and Michael Rodd. Bart remains at the top of his game; Rodd is getting to the peak. The other runners’ time will come, perhaps as early as next month’s AJC Derby, over an extra 400 metres. By then Zabrasive and Hanks might not be And Also -rans. Stephen Howell