FOCUS ON SECOND LEG If you think you can work out the second leg, the Manion Cup for stayers, and cut our “field” suggestion down to at least our top six selections (see below race summary), it will reduce your cost, or allow you to go wider in some of the other legs. Our risk leg is the first leg, where we have gone for the Melbourne-trained pair of Queen Of Queens and Divine Rebel, but we concede it is a leg in which you should go wider if you can afford it perhaps at the expense of leg two.
FORM A SYDICATE
$2250
2, 4 /field /1, 2, 3, 4, 5 /3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 7 /1, 2, 5, 7,9
Rosehill, March 28, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.10pm
SECOND LEG 2.50pm
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
THIRD LEG 3.30pm
FOURTH LEG 4.10pm
FIFTH LEG 4.50pm
SIXTH LEG 5.30pm
De Bortoli Epona Stakes (1900m) R4
Ambassador Manion Cup Hyland Colours Ajax (2400m) R5 Stakes (1500m) R6
Dubai Rosehill Guineas (2000m) R7
Darby Munro Stakes (1200m) R8
Birthday Card Stakes (1200m) R9
No depth in this fillies and mares quality, so we are going for the best form-lines and the mares suited to the distance. The best stayer in the race is (2) Queen Of Queen s, from the in-form Mick Price stable. Last year she showed her class by winning the G3 SA Oaks (2500m) at Morphettville, and then ran fourth behind Heavenly Glow in the G1 AJC Oaks (2400m) at Randwick. Both runs from a spell have been good, and she’s screaming out for this trip. She’s the top pick ahead of (4) Divine Rebel, a giant mare, who has won over 2100m and is in great form as she has twice chased home the smart Fifth Avenue Lady over 1600m at her last two starts. (1) Il luminate s and (3 ) Prima Nova are unknown over 1900m, but they have a touch of class. (5 ) Raise needs it wet. (8) R isayla can improve, respect (9 ) Very Grand and (1 0) Perm ission To Land.
This is a moderate batch of stayers heading towards the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m). It’s a race that could throw up some surprises. All weights were raised 3kg and only 1kg separates the top and the bottom. A field leg? Certainly, the two at the head of the weights (1) Enze dex Eagle and (2) Kettledru m – both Stakesplaced at their latest outings – are in the mix, and (7) Tangalooma and ( 8) Dandaad are ready to improve now they have got to 2400m. Gai Waterhouse will have the lightly-raced (9) Common O bje c tive ready for this, and the unknown quantity, (1 0) Shin Kin Fly has some handy NZ form. That gives us six chances, but we could easily stretched it to nine as (3) Lan g and ( 4) Bopalula have ordinary strike rates but they have ability, and (6) Mack nuck le has a win over Kettledrum this track and trip.
Although we expect improvement from those horses needing the 2000m as part of their quest for the G1 AJC Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick in two weeks, we feel that the form line from the G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) is the strongest. The Randwick Guineas winner (3 ) Meta l Ben der and third placegetter (4 ) Caymans are the standout top two picks. Both will handle the step to 2000m, both have drawn ideally, and both represent a touch of class. (8) Tob ique who ran a slashing fourth in the Randwick Guineas. He is also looking for this extra 400m, and must be included on the strength of his promise alone. The Derby winners (1) Coniston Blue bir d (NZ) and (2) Rebe l Raider (Victoria) will be better suited at 2400m, while (7 ) Rock K in gdom, who ran second in the Randwick Guineas is a query at 2000m.
If (2) N ic con i had drawn better than barrier 11 (he will come from 10 with the scratching of First Command), then he would have been the banker bet for this Big6. The David Hayes-trained colt has tremendous form in Melbourne around Fravashi and Heart Of Dreams, which is far superior to the form-line of his rivals here. His fourth in the G1 Cadbury Guineas (1600m, Flemington) was good, as he wasn’t seasoned enough to run a strong 1600m. Hayes has found the perfect race for Nicconi to kick off his Sydney campaign, and he might be just too good for his rivals. The in-form (1 ) B hutane Dane is the main danger from barrier two. He was strong winning the Listed Eskimo Prince (1200m) at Randwick and he is 2-2 this track and trip. The smart filly (7) Serenissima is right in the mix, as, too, is ( 3) A hda sh im.
A tricky sprint for mares clouded by the fact there are some questions over two of the main contestants (2) Gamb le Me and (7) Dam selfly. Gamble Me is resuming from a spell, while Damselfly is having her first run in Sydney. Gamble Me is a quality sprinter who resumes from a good draw. Reports are that she is working strongly at Randwick. Damselfly was unbeaten in four starts before her narrow defeat by Kirvinsky at Stakes level over 1100m at Flemington on March 7. Trainer Mick Price rates her highly. It’s hard to ignore the consistency of the top weight (1) Be long To Many, but this is a little harder and she rises 0.5kg to 59kg, and she also comes a wide barrier (9). Look for another good run from (5) E spuran te (second to Belong To Many last week over this course) and forgive (9) L ustre Lady her fifth in that race after losing her momentum at a crucial stage.
2 – 4 – 1, 3, 8, 9, 10
1, 2, 7, 8, – 9, 10 – 3, 4, 6
At the time of writing, trainer Anthony Cummings hadn’t decided if (2) Solo Flyer was to run in the Ajax or wait until next week’s G1 George Ryder Stakes. We can only make our selections assuming he is a starter. Solo Flyer has returned in great form, winning first-up at Randwick (1200m) and then he won the G3 Newcastle Newmarket (1400m) after boxseating from barrier one. He will be hard to beat while in this form. He will have stiff opposition from (3) March ing, (5 ) Playwrigh t and (4 ) Cha sm, while (6) K in gda Ka will be fitter for a sound first-up run. The topweight (1) Re ign in g To W in, who won the G1 T J Smith (1200m) at the autumn carnival two years ago, has been struggling for form, but he represents the class in this race and can’t be dismissed. Of the 3YOs ( 8) A ll American is the best.
2, 4, 5 – 3, 1 – 6, 8
3, 4 – 8
2 – 1, 7 – 3
2, 7 – 1, 5, 9