GROUP 1 RACE PREVIEWS
WITH DANNY POWER
p1
FLEMINGTON: RACE 6 – 2.35 Crown Newmarket Handicap (1200m) NEWMARKET SPEED MAP Predicted positions on settling
Grand Duels
Triple Honour
Undue
Swiss Ace
Typhoon Zed
King Hoaks
Burdekin Blues
Northern Meteor
Tramuntana
Seventh Rock
Time Thief
Fist of Fury
Aichi
Stanzout
Duporth
Red Element
Absolute Glam
Secret Flyer
Largo Lad
Scenic Blast
Orange County
Swick
Fighting Fund
< INSIDE RAIL
THE TEMPO – Good/fast The nature of the scamper down the straight that is the Newmarket – a handicap and a big field – ensures a fast tempo annually. In the last 15 years, only three times has 1 min 09 secs not been broken – Rubitano (2002, 1.09.03), General Nediym (1998, 1.09.23) and Mookta (1994, 1.10.20). Even when it was run around the turn at Caulfield in 2007, Miss Andretti ran 1.07.74. Miss Pennymoney’s 1.07.68 in 2000 is the quickest Newmarket in its long history. This year expect the Queenslanders Swiss Ace and Burdekin Blues to set the slick pace. They are both drawn in the centre of the track – Burdekin Blues in 10 and Swiss Ace in 14 – and they should be eye-balling each other for a long way. Northern Meteor, with a fitness query, will be right with them. Back runners are always a threat in the Newmarket, as they usually can find some galloping room down the centre. Expect Secret Flyer, who will settle midfield, and Absolut Glam and Swick to be the horses coming late.
ANALYSIS BY RUNNER 1. SCENIC BLAST (B or br g 4, Scenic (IRE)-Daughter’s Charm, by Delgado (USA)) Aiming to become the 11th horse to win the Lightning Stakes and Newmarket
Handicap double – the last was Miss Andretti in 2007. He drew inside and worked to a wide position before swooping late to win the G1 Lightning (1000m) down the straight. Not disgraced when 5th in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m, Caulfield) behind Swiss Ace when galloped on and hampered in the run. The last horse to win this race with 57kg or more was Takeover Target in 2006 (and he also won the Lightning that year). He’ll need to be at the top of his game to win with this weight, but he is a quality galloper.
2. SWICK (NZ) (B g 7, O’Reilly (NZ)-Crème Anglaise (NZ), by Crested Wave (USA)) High-class sprinter who runs his best races down the straight here – his two wins from 12 starts here are the 2008 G1 Patinack Classic (1200m) and the 2007 G2 Salinger Stakes (1200m). Finished second in this race last year behind Weekend Hussler after an interrupted run. Up from 55kg to 57kg, but he warmed up for this with a good 4th in the G3 Carlyon Cup (1400m) at Caulfield. Soft trial here on Tuesday. Likely to smother away and come with one late run. One of the best chances. Trainer Bart Cummings has won this race eight times, the last with Shaftesbury Avenue in 1991.
3. TYPHOON ZED (Ch g 5, Zeditave-Royal Diploma (USA), by Honor Grades (USA)) Probably the most consistent G1 sprinter in this race. Solid 2nd behind Scenic Blast in the G1 Lightning
Stakes (1000m) here, then worked hard from wide gate for a game 3rd behind Swiss Ace in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield. Ran 3rd behind Swick in the 2007 G2 Salinger Stakes (1200m) here in the spring after winning the G1 Manikato Stakes (WFA 1200m) at the Valley – also a winner over 1000m here as a 3YO, so he likes the straight. Trainer Tim Martin won this race with Exceed And Excel in 2004.
4. TRIPLE HONOUR (NZ) (B g 4, Honours List (IRE)-Myrrh (NZ), by Nassipour (USA)) Resuming from the spring when he finished a solid 4th behind Swick in the G1 Patinack Classic (1200m) over this course after missing the start. The last time he ran in a handicap race, he won the G1 Doncaster Handicap (1600m) at Randwick in April 26 on a wet track. Trialled nicely at Randwick (3rd behind Royal Discretion) on Feb 20, and he beat Burdekin Blues in a straight trial here on Tuesday morning. Likely to come down the outside fence from gate 20. Not without a winning chance on his best form.
5. ORANGE COUNTY (NZ) (Gr g 6, Volksraad (GB)-Saffie (NZ), by Kaapstad (NZ)) Resumed with a sound 4th behind Apache Cat in the G1 Australia Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley, when worked home from back and wide. His only run down the straight (and he has
GROUP 1 RACE PREVIEWS won three 1400m races at Flemington) was third behind Bon Hoffa in the 2008 G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) in the spring. Likely to get back, but he will be finishing on. Whether he has the class to win a Newmarket with 56kg is debatable. Trainer Brian MayfieldSmith won this race with Rubitano in 2002.
6. UNDUE (B g 7, Commands-Influence, by Bletchingly) Marvellous old galloper who finished third behind Miss Andretti in this race in 2007, after winning the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield – his last win. Surprisingly, he rises 0.5kg from the 2007 Newmarket, and this time he comes off a distant 13th (behind Swiss Ace) in the Oakleigh Plate, although it was his first run for a year after injury. Too good to dismiss, but he will need to produce a huge form reversal to win. Gets a new jockey in Peter Mertens (M Rodd, N Rawiller and S Arnold have ridden him in the last 12 months). Mightn’t be enough.
in this race last year when he carried 52kg (rises to 54.5kg). Likely to race on the pace down the outside. Jockey Brad Rawiller won this race last year on Weekend Hussler.
9. STANZOUT (Gr g 6, Gallo Fi Ferro (USA)-Stanza Grey, by Mentat Duke) Resuming from a long break with a 9 th behind Swiss Ace in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield. Worked wide mid-race, and threatened a place until his condition gave out under Damien Oliver. Steven King gets the ride, and this horse has an excellent second-up record (4-2-1-1). Finished 10 th behind Weekend Hussler in this race last year. Likes galloping room, so barrier 1 is no help, and there is a doubt about him behind a genuine Group 1 class horse. Steven King hasn’t ridden a Newmarket placegetter in nine rides.
10. ABSOLUT GLAM
(B h 4, Secret Savings (USA)-Rapid Serve (USA), by Carson City (USA)) Lived up to his big reputation in Queensland with a terrific win in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield. Sped across from the outside gate to lead and kicked clear on the turn. Overtaken by Lucky Secret at the 200m, but rallied to win in a tight finish. Gets a 1.5kg penalty as he attempts to be the 11th horse to win the Oakleigh-Newmarket double; the last was Weekend Hussler last year, and before than the exceptional Schillaci (1992) and Placid Ark (1987). His only run down the straight was 7th behind Scenic Blast in the G1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) last month when he didn’t get much galloping room. Good enough and tough enough.
(Ch m 4, Snowland-Pine Away (USA), by Pine Bluff (USA)) Top class mare resuming. Not raced since 2nd behind Bellini Rose in the G3 Blazer Stakes (1410m) at Flemington on Oct. 4. Before that she was a firstup close second to Typhoon Zed in the G1 Manikato Stakes (WFA 1200m) at Moonee Valley, and won the G1 Winter Stakes (1400m) at Eagle Farm. Yet to race down the Flemington straight, and she didn’t trial as expected there on Tuesday, however, it is her home track and she has worked down the straight course in the past. Expect her to settle back, out wide, and come home very hard. Trainer Danny O’Brien has targeted this race, and jockey Damien Oliver has won three times on Alinghi (2005), Toledo (2001) and Schillaci (1992). The last mare to win the Newmarket was Miss Andretti in 2007 (23 mares have won the race) who lumped 56kg, 2kg more than Absolut Glam.
8. GRAND DUELS
11. BURDEKIN BLUES
(B or br g 5, Marechal-Valentine’s Gift, by Ifrad (USA)) Straight track specialist who comes off a one-paced 12 th behind Swiss Ace in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield. Before that he held his ground after tracking the pace for 3rd behind Scenic Blast in the G1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) here. Two wins and three placings from nine starts down the Flemington straight, including a game third behind Weekend Hussler
(B or br g 4, Sequalo-Winsome Blue, by Blue Run) Emerged as a serious contender for this race when he led throughout to win the G2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill, beating Gold Trail. Very slick sprinter who had previously won six of his 10 starts in Qld in brilliant style. Had his first look at the Flemington straight on Tuesday (ridden by Larry Cassidy who replaces Shane Scriven) when narrowly beaten by Triple Honour
7. SWISS ACE
WITH DANNY POWER
p2
in an 800m trial. Showed his usual speed but he was all over the track. The experience and the hit-out should do him the world of good, and expect him to be in the leading bunch for a long way. He jumps from a 2-win metro restricted to a Group 2 and now a Group 1 – a big ask. The last Queenslander to win the Newmarket was High Jip in 1950.
12. FIGHTING FUND (Ch g 7, Secret Savings (USA)-Forglow, by Forest Glow (USA)) Resuming after an ordinary first-up 12 th behind Voice Commander in the Listed Festival Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill in Dec. Before that he ran on strongly for 2nd behind Hot Danish in the G2 Salinger Stakes (1200m) over this course on Derby Day. He hasn’t won since an open handicap (1200m) at Rosehill in Feb. 2008. Recent barrier trial winner at Rosehill, and he’s in the hands of a great trainer in Guy Walter. Fighting Fund has won three of six first-up runs, but doubt he can do it at this level.
13. KING HOAKS (B g 5, King Charlemagne (USA)My Nancy, by Noalcoholic (FR)) Comes off a 9 th behind Lord Monty in the Sale Quality (1200m), his second run since winning the Listed Standish Handicap over this course on Jan 1. A step to this level looks beyond him. Jockey Darren Gauci has won this race twice – Shaftesbury Avenue (1991) and Red Tempo (1985).
14. LARGO LAD (B g 4, Encosta De Lago-Lady Marion, by Danehill (USA)) Giant gelding who has been kept fresh for this after being tried as a stayer in the spring. Resumed with a powerful late burst to beat subsequent backto-back winner Road To Rock in his first run down the Flemington straight on Jan 31. He will get back, and the wide draw will give him the galloping room he needs. A win would be a big surprise, but there is no doubting this horse has the talent to win a Group 1 on his day. Trainer David Hayes won his only Newmarket with Primacy in 1993.
15. NORTHERN METEOR (B c 3, Encosta De Lago-Explosive (USA), by Fappiano (USA)) Emulated his sire by winning the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (née Ascot Vale Stakes) over this course in the
GROUP 1 RACE PREVIEWS spring. Hasn’t raced since and trainer Gai Waterhouse has been concerned about getting the weight off him for his return. Two solid Randwick trials on Jan 30 (2nd to Fist Of Fury) and Feb 9 (easy win) preceded a series of strong gallops at Flemington in the last 10 days. Raw sprinting talent who has won three from fi ve (including 1200m track record at Randwick (1.08.32)), although his only first-up win was a Canterbury maiden. Gai’s not declaring him (mmmm!) but there is no doubting this colt deserves to be taken seriously. Waterhouse won this race in 1994 with All Our Mob.
16. RED ELEMENT (B h 4, Red Ransom (USA)Tracy’s Element, by Last Tycoon (IRE)) His Listed Doveton Handicap (1100m) win at Caulfield on Feb 8 saw him go out a strong fancy ($12) to win the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) there on Feb 21, but he could only manage 11th behind Swiss Ace after settling well back. Won the Listed Creswick Stakes (1200m), in June 2008, in his only run down the straight. His inconsistency is a concern, and there remains a big doubt that he is up to Group 1 class. Trainer David Hayes won this race with Primacy in 1993.
17. SECRET FLYER (ch g 5, Secret Savings (USA)-Lanadee, by Snaadee (USA)) This lightly raced 5YO – 17 starts for 7 wins – has emerged in the last three months as a genuine contender for this race. Suffered a minor setback after winning the Listed Kensington Stakes (1100m) down the straight on Jan 17, but resumed from a 34-day break to cruise (lumping 56.5kg) to the easiest of wins over Woppitt at Moonee Valley (1000m) on Feb 20, breaking 34 secs for his last 600m, which is rare at the Valley. It was a commanding win by a horse on the rise, and he drops 4kg and regains Dwayne Dunn who declared him a Newmarket chance when he rode him to win at Kensington Stakes. Dunn rode Grand Duels for third in this race last year, and Toledo who was second in 1998.
18. SEVENTH ROCK (Blk h 4, Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)Ruby Clipper (NZ), by Rubiton) Australian-bred for South Africantrained galloper who won at Group 1 level as a juvenile. Made his
Australian debut for David Hayes in the G1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) at Flemington, and he was all over the place, eventually drifting inwards to hinder the runs of some of the favourites, including Weekend Hussler and Apache Cat. Hasn’t been seen since and it is impossible to tip him on what we have seen. Drops a handy 6kg on the WFA Lightning run. Hayes has won this race in 1993 with Primacy.
19. TRAMUNTANA (B g 6, Singspiel (IRE)-Hip Hop, by Success Express (USA)) Capable sprinter from South Australia but his two recent outings have been below par for a race of this level. Back in the spring he ran a handy 5th behind Swick in the G1 Patinack Classic over this course – his only run down the straight. Hasn’t won since an open handicap at Morphettville in Nov. 2007.
20. DUPORTH (B or br c 3, Red Ransom (USA)-Staging, by Success Express (USA)) Top flight 3YO who wasn’t suited on the slow ground when a first-up 4th behind Youthful Jack in the G2 Royal Sovereign Stakes (1200m) at Randwick on Feb 14, his first run since 4th behind Whobegotyou in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) in the spring. Won the 1400m G2 Golden Rose at Rosehill before that, his most important victory. Lacks natural speed, but he will be running on strongly with his lightweight. Trainer: Anthony Cummings has added blinkers to sharpen the colt for the 1200m dash.
21. TIME THIEF (B c 3, Redoute’s ChoiceProcrastinate, by Jade Hunter (USA)) Brilliant colt who was only 80 per cent fit when he won the Listed Zeditave Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield. Then forced to lead and did well to hold on for 3rd behind the dominant Apache Cat in the G1 Australia Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley. Trainer Lee Freedman has mulled over his decision to start all week (also entered the colt for the G2 Yallambee Stakes in Adelaide). Beaten a nose by Aichi in the Listed Danehill Stakes (1200m) here in the spring – his only straight run. Expect him to be ridden more quietly this time, and he will be hard to beat with only 51.5kg. Freedman has won three Newmarkets – Miss Andretti (2007), Alinghi (2005) and Schillaci (1992).
WITH DANNY POWER
p3
22. AICHI (B g 3, Strategic-Nagoya, by Quest For Fame (GB)) Quality 3YO who beat Time Thief in the Listed Danehill Stakes over this course in September last spring, and then stepped into open company to beat all but Sunburnt Lad in the G2 Caulfield Sprint (1100m) on Oct. 18. Should have won the Listed Schweppes 1000 (1000m) at Flemington on Nov. 4. Failed firstup when unfi t, but returned to form to beat Kings Farewell at Caulfield (1200m) on Feb. 21. Should be further improved by that. His best form suggests that with 51kg (drops 5kg), he is right in this. Jockey Craig Newitt won this race on Miss Andretti (2007).
23. FIST OF FURY (Ch c 3, Hussonet (USA)-Venticello, by Chimes Square) His trainer John O’Shea rates him very highly. Didn’t have a clear run when 6th behind Swiss Ace in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) on Feb 21, his first run since his good second behind Northern Meteor over this course in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day. Expect him to be greatly improved by his Oakleigh Plate run, and Glen Boss replaces Corey Brown. Drops 2kg to only 50.5kg (the last horse to win with less weight was Elounda Bay, 49kg, in 1981), and is aiming to be 29 th 3YO to win the Newmarket, and the first for O’Shea and Boss.
THE TIPS 1. Secret Flyer 2. Swick 3. Absolut Glam 4. Northern Meteor 5. Time Thief 6. Swiss Ace