Australia - Mobile Infrastructure Released On 26th August 2015
This report covers recent developments pertaining to mobile infrastructure in Australia. It provides a range of useful statistics from operators, as well as data from a number of surveys undertaken in 2014 and into 2015. The report includes progress with the buildout of LTE networks, supported by recent spectrum auctions and the availability of spectrum in the 700MHz band since January 2015. It also assesses the government’s plans to issue licences in the 1800MHz band to improve mobile services in rural and remote regions. The report also covers mobile market revenue and assesses the competitive pressures affecting revenue growth among operators in coming years. For information on the Mobile Broadband market see separate report: Australia - Mobile Broadband Market - Services and Apps Executive Summary Australian MNOs aiming for near-national LTE coverage Despite pressures on pricing, revenue is expected to show continued growth for fiscal 2015, though future revenue growth will be impacted by continuing activity from a number of the larger MVNOs Positive growth offsetting downward pressure on mobile voice revenue should be expected JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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from mobile data services as the reach of LTE networks is extended into 2016. For the MNOs, the latest results are positive. Telstra reported a 9.8% increase in mobile revenue in the year to December 2014, while Optus recovered from revenue decline in FY2014, recording a 6.7% increase in FY2015. VHA, which has been dogged by steep revenue declines for a number of years on the back of customer disaffection with service offerings, reported a 2.9% increase in revenue for the first half of 2015, supported by a 2.1% increase in its subscriber base. The operator’s investments are clearly beginning to deliver rewards, resulting in a change in customer sentiments as it addresses popular concerns over poor network quality and stability. Continuing dominance of the triopoly players Australia’s mobile market continues to be dominated by the three major mobile network operators Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone (VHA). Voice services remain a staple for revenue for all three, though in terms of revenue share voice is steadily losing ground to various forms of mobile data, which has evolved from basic SMS messaging to encompass highend applications including gaming and m-commerce. To address poor mobile services in rural areas, the government in June 2015 announced the first of two Mobile Black Spot Programs, funded by the federal and state governments as well as by the two commissioned MNOs Telstra and Vodafone. The work to deploy some 500 new or upgraded base stations will start at the end of 2015 and be completed by 2018. Infrastructure moving to 4G, with 5G on the horizon From the mid-2000s consumers took to 3G in earnest as they migrated from 2G networks. In line with the migration of 3G, operators such as Telstra plan to discontinue 2G-based networks are repurpose spectrum, for 3G and 4G use. Nevertheless, 2G retains a use in specific areas such as M2M applications. Just as 3G grew to dominate the mobile landscape, so is its dominance now fast fading as LTE networks gain headway and consumers migrate to the new technology. By mid-2015 Vodafone provided 90% metro population coverage with its LTE infrastructure, while both Optus and Telstra are each ramping up to 98% coverage by the end of 2016. Already, up to 80% of all new smartphones sold are LTE-capable. Steady subscriber growth maintained Growth in the number of mobile subscribers in Australia has slowed in recent years, reflecting the relatively high penetration rate, which my mid-2015 had reached about 137%. Although a significant proportion of subscribers make use of multiple phones or SIM cards, growth is stimulated by a steady increase in the population. Operators can also expect to benefit from further migration among consumers from fixed-line to mobile JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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telecoms, supported by the practical benefits to consumers of improved quality of mobile data services resulting from network upgrades and the wide-scale reach of LTE infrastructure. Spectrum policy changes to improve regional services Following the auction of spectrum in the 700MHz band in early 2015, licensees have been able to makes use of their concessions since January 2015. This has led to a rapid extension of mobile broadband availability across most areas of the country, and involved each MNO investing more than a billion dollars annually in network upgrades. Competitive pressure among the MNOs is ensuring that more funding is being made available to upgrade these networks to 2017 at least. In addition, the government in mid2015 released funds for its two-stage Mobile Black Spot program, while a pending licensing procedure affecting the 1800MHz band will see improved mobile services in rural regions. Smartphone market hand-in-hand with network improvements Smartphone use in Australia continues to grow among consumers, with the smartphone sector now accounting for about 80-90% of all new devices sold. Smartphones and tablets are becoming a dominant internet access channel among the younger demographic. In addition, these devices are beginning to dominate overall e-commerce, being used in about a third of all e-commerce transactions. This proportion will increase into 2016 in line with the availability of devices with larger screens, more mobile-friendly websites, easier payment systems and a widening availability of faster mobile networks. Key developments: Vodafone switches LTE data traffic to new core network, reports 2.9% growth in revenue for the first half of 2015; Vodafone and Telstra prep for launch of VoLTE services; Telstra commits to $5 billion mobile spend over three years; 4G subscriber base increasing; Rapid growth in phablet sales impacts tablet market; Smartphone penetration showing sustained growth; Report update includes telcos’ financial and operating updates to June 2015; recent market developments.Companies mentioned in this report: SingTel, Vodafone, 3, VHA, Optus, Telstra, AUSTAR, unwired, Vividwireless, NBC, Optus, AAPT, Hutchinson, Walker Wireless, ActewAGL, NBN, Amaysim, Woolworths, Crazy Johns, JB HiFi, Virgin Mobile, Aldi Mobile; Huawei, Lebara, AAPT, Kogan Mobile, GRLmobile, Red Bull Mobile, Macquarie Telecom, Boost Tel, Pivotel, Globalstar. JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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Table of Contents 1. Industry overview 1.1 Background information 1.2 Subscriber statistics 1.3 Mobile coverage black spots 1.4 Rural Australia in favour of NBN mobile services 1.5 Mobile calling plan standardisation a start to a clearer choice 1.6 Roaming 1.7 NBN as backhaul 1.8 Mobile technology boost productivity 1.9 Cutting the fixed-line cord 1.10 Mobile consolidation is unavoidable 1.11 Data mining – the next driver of mobile revenue 1.12 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) 1.12.1 Telstra 1.12.2 SingTel Optus 1.12.3 Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA) 1.13 Network technologies 1.13.1 HSPA-based services 1.13.2 Long-term Evolution (LTE) 1.13.3 2G services (historic) 1.14 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) 1.14.1 Background on the MVNO sector 1.14.2 Market overview 1.14.3 Other developments in the MVNO market 1.14.4 Amaysim 1.14.5 Red Bull Mobile 1.14.6 Kogan Mobile 1.14.7 Aldi Mobile 1.14.8 Lebara Mobile 1.14.9 Macquarie Telecom 1.14.10 Virgin Mobile JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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1.14.11 Woolworths Mobile 1.15 Mobile resellers 1.15.1 Background information 1.15.2 Resellers on the Telstra network 1.15.3 Resellers on the Optus network 1.15.4 Resellers on the Vodafone network 1.16 Mobile Virtual Network Enablers (MVNEs) 1.16.1 Background information 1.16.2 Pivotel 1.16.3 M2 Telecommunications Group 2. Mobile retail market 2.1 An overview of the mobile retail market 2.1.1 Major retail categories 2.1.2 Retail margins 2.1.3 Retail revenues 2.1.4 Consolidation 2.1.5 The move from prepaid to postpaid 2.1.6 Mobile broadband (separate report) 2.1.7 Superior customer care to come from a new TCP Code 2.1.8 Mobile calling plan standardisation a start to a clearer choice 2.1.9 Replacement market 2.1.10 Wholesale aggregators 2.2 Major mobile retail companies 2.2.1 Background information 2.2.2 Vertically integrated operators 2.2.3 Independents retailing services exclusively for mobile operators 2.2.4 Independents retailing services for a variety of network operators 3. Statistical overview of the mobile market 3.1 Revenue overview and statistics 3.1.1 Statistical sources 3.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts 3.1.3 Operator revenue statistics overview 3.1.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU) 3.2 Subscriber statistics 3.2.1 Statistical sources JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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3.2.2 Mobile subscriber statistics 4. Mobile infrastructure 4.1 Spectrum overview 4.1.1 Overview 4.1.2 Spectrum regulations 4.1.3 ACMA five-year outlook – 2012 - 2016 4.1.4 Spectrum-based services 4.1.5 Spectrum ownership and licences 4.2 Spectrum auctions 4.2.1 Introduction 4.2.2 Digital dividend auction – 2013 4.2.3 500MHz frequency 4.2.4 800MHz and 1.8GHz frequencies 4.2.5 1880-1920MHz (1.9GHz) frequency 4.2.6 2010-2025MHz frequencies 4.2.7 2.3GHz band 4.2.8 Unused 2GHz spectrum 4.2.9 3.4GHz frequencies 4.2.10 3G Auctions 4.3 3G and 4G infrastructure 4.3.1 Background information 4.3.2 Network operators 4.3.3 Mobile sites infrastructure 4.3.4 Infrastructure analysis 5. Mobile satellite services 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Second generation satellites with Globalstar to benefit rural Australians 5.3 Twitter on satellite phones 5.4 Public subsidies and regulation 5.4.1 Overview 5.4.2 Mobile satellite service band plan 5.4.3 Mobile satellite phone subsidies 5.5 Overview of operators 5.5.1 Telstra 5.5.2 Optus JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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5.5.3 Pivotal Group 5.5.4 VIX QuikTrak 5.5.5 AST Australia 5.5.6 Addcom 5.5.7 Indigo Telecom 5.5.8 FedSat – Australia’s low earth orbit satellite (historic) 5.6 Usage and revenue estimates 5.6.1 Background information 5.6.2 Revenue 6. Smartphones, tablets and handset market 6.1 Market overview 6.1.1 Trends in mobile handset market 6.1.2 4G market continues to grow 6.1.3 Telstra’s T-Hub 2 – moving fixed-line customers to the future NBN 6.2 Predictions into 2015 and beyond 6.2.1 Smartphone data usage increasing 6.2.2 Tablets and e-readers 6.3 Smartphone, tablet and handset statistics 6.3.1 Shipments 6.3.2 Handset recycling 6.3.3 Handset supplier market shares 6.3.4 Smartphones and internet usage 6.3.5 Tablet sales reaching a plateau 6.3.6 Smartwatch market 6.4 Analysis 6.4.1 Mobile vendors set to lose the proprietary battle 6.4.2 Mid-tier mobile phones to decline 6.5 Market surveys 6.5.1 Overview 6.5.2 Smartphones lead to higher data spend 6.5.3 Smartphone users are action buyers 6.5.4 Tablet usage strong but sales decline 6.5.5 Android remains the favoured operating system 6.5.6 Enterprise mobility market increasing in value 6.6 The future of the smartphone market 6.6.1 Hardware becomes a utility platform 6.6.2 Platform for innovation and industry transformation JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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6.6.3 Breaking into new markets 6.6.4 Who will dominate the Wi-Fi market? 6.6.5 Conclusion 6.7 Wearable technology List Of Tables Table 1 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2010 – 2015 Table 2 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2010 – 2015 Table 3 – Mobile subscriber gains and losses by MNO – 2009 – 2014 Table 4 – Mobile-only phone users – 2010 - 2014 Table 5 – Telstra - overview of mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2014 Table 6 – Optus revenue – 2012 - 2015 Table 7 – Optus mobile pre/postpaid customers – 2008 - 2015 Table 8 – VHA subscribers by type – 2009 – 2015 Table 9 – VHA MVNO customers – 2014 – 2015 Table 10 – Mobile subscribers share by MNO and MVNO – 2014 – 2015 Table 11 – Pivotel Globalstar satellite data costs – July 2015 Table 12 – Selected retailers – number of outlets by state Table 13 – The wholesale market in Australia - key players - 2014 Table 14 – Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 2004 Table 15 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2015 Table 16 – Telstra mobile services revenue – 2009 - 2015 Table 17 – Vodafone Australia revenue – 2009 - 2015 Table 18 –Optus key financial indicators – 2009 - 2015 Table 19 – Optus mobile revenue – 2013 – 2015 Table 20 – Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator – 1993 - 2004 Table 21 – Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004 Table 22 – Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 2005 - 2015 Table 23 – Mobile market share in revenue per major operator – 2000 - 2015 Table 24 – Estimated mobile service revenue by service, proportion of total – 2007 - 2015 Table 25 – Telstra mobile and broadband revenue – 2009 - 2015 Table 26 – Blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2000 - 2015 Table 27 – Annual change in blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2004 - 2015 Table 28 – Telstra postpaid ARPU per month – 2004 - 2015 JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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Table 29 – Optus postpaid ARPU per month – 2004 - 2015 Table 30 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2000 - 2015 Table 31 – Historic - Mobile subscribers by carrier – 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004 Table 32 – Vodafone – subscribers by type – 2009 – 2015 Table 33 – Telstra mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2014 Table 34 – Optus mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2015 Table 35 – Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995; 1997; 2000 2004 Table 36 – Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 2005 - 2015 Table 37 – Historic - Mobile subscriber market share by carrier – 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2004 Table 38 – Mobile subscriber market share by carrier – 2010 - 2014 Table 39 – Historic - 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2003 - 2011 Table 40 – Historic - Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2011 Table 41 – Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2014 Table 42 – Historic - 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011 Table 43 – Historic - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011 Table 44 – Average LTE speed by MNO – 2012 - 2015 Table 45 – Vodafone – prepaid and contract subscribers – 2009 – 2015 Table 46 – Optus mobile pre/postpaid customers – 2008 - 2015 Table 47 – Telstra mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2014 Table 48 – Telstra wholesale subscribers – 2009 - 2014 Exhibit 15 – Expiring spectrum allocation timetable – 2015 - 2028 Table 49 – The 500MHz spectrum licences – 1997 Table 50 – Spectrum charges for spectrum bandwidth licenses expiring in 2013 Table 51 – Mobile base stations – 2009; 2011 - 2015 Table 52 – Crown Castle mobile tower acquisitions Table 53 – Pivotel Globalstar satellite data costs – July 2015 Table 54 – Telstra mobile satellite users – 2009 - 2014 Table 55 – Optus satellite revenue – 2007 - 2015 Table 56 – Smartphone market share by carrier – 2013 - 2014 Table 57 – Smartphone ownership by age group – 2013 Table 58 – Internet connections via mobile handsets – 2011 - 2014 Table 59 – Australian handset shipments (historic) – 2004 - 2008 Table 60 – Australian handset shipments – 2009 - 2015 Table 61 – Key recycling indicators – Mobile Muster – 2006 - 2013 Table 62 –Australian handset brand market share – major suppliers – 2008 - 2013 JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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Table 63 – Use of advanced phone features – % of mobile user accesses of rich media/smartphone features - 2013 Table 64 – Top 5 uses of mobile internet – 2009 - 2014 Table 65 – Estimated tablet users – 2010 - 2012; 2015 - 2016 Table 66 – Low-end, mid-tier and high-end mobile device markets – percentage of units sold – 2007; 2013. Table 67 – Apps info and payment plan data – 2009 - 2013 Table 68 – Monthly phone spend on services – 2010 - 2013 Table 69 – Types of use on smartphones – 2012 - 2013 Table 70 – Smartphone app use by age group – 2013 Table 71 – Smartphone and tablet use of services – 2014 Table 72 – Typical selected usage pattern of a tablet user – 2012 - 2013 Table 73 – Estimated Australian platform market share – 2008 - 2014 List Of Figures Chart 1 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2005 - 2015 Chart 2 – Mobile subscriber gains and losses by MNO – 2010 – 2014 Chart 3 – Optus mobile pre/postpaid customers – 2008 – 2015 Chart 4 – Telstra mobile services revenue – 2009 – 2015 Chart 5 – Overview of Vodafone Australia revenue – 2009 - 2015 Chart 6 –Optus key financial indicators – 2009 – 2015 Chart 7 – Overview of mobile revenue share per major operator – 2000 - 2015 Chart 8 – Telstra mobile and broadband revenue – 2010 – 2015 Chart 9 – Overview of blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2005 - 2015 Chart 10 – Overview of mobile market subscribers versus population – 2005 – 2015 Chart 11 – Overview of annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 2005 - 2014 Exhibit 1 – The initial analogue operators – brief historic background Exhibit 2 – MVNO models Exhibit 3 – MVNO opportunities Exhibit 4 – Mobile carriers and selected MVNOs – 2014 Exhibit 5 – Examples of key MVNO customer segments Exhibit 6 – Amaysim at a glance Exhibit 7 – Mobile carriers and selected resellers and MVNEs Exhibit 8 – An overview of Boost Tel Exhibit 9 – Pivotel Communications at a glance Exhibit 10 – Strathfield Group – a brief background look at its services JSB Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
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Exhibit 11 – Background information on the 3G race by the MNOs Exhibit 12 – 700MHz reallocation – 2011 - 2014 Exhibit 13 – Digital dividend spectrum Exhibit 14 – Proposed 2.5GHz reallocation – 2011 - 2016 Exhibit 16 – Allocations for wireless access services (WAS) – 2009 Exhibit 17 – Mobile spectrum by operator in capital city and regional area Exhibit 18 – GSM services by operator Exhibit 19 – WCDMA services by operator Exhibit 20 – Ownership of selected frequencies for 2.3GHz and 3.4GHz services – 2015 Exhibit 21 – An overview of the digital dividend auction timeline – 2010 - 2015 Exhibit 22 – 700MHz and 2.5GHz auction results – 2013 Exhibit 23 – Companies initially showing interest in the 800/1800MHz auctions Exhibit 24 – Catapult Exhibit 25 – Auction results Exhibit 26 – Final 1.8GHz spectrum auction results Exhibit 27 – The 1900-1920MHzGHz spectrum auction results Exhibit 28 – The 2.3GHz spectrum auction results – 2011 Exhibit 29 – 3.4GHz initial bidders – August 2000 Exhibit 30 – Final 3.4GHz – October 2000 Exhibit 31 – 3G auction results per bidder – 2001 Product Price :
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