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QATAR QUALIFIERS
‘WE’VE COME A LONG WAY SINCE WILLIE GROVES SET THE TRANSFER RECORD AT £100’ THE END OF THE TRANSFER FEE?
WITH CERTAIN TRENDS NOTABLY SHIFTING, GABY MCKAY PONDERS THE FUTURE OF THE TRANSFER MARKET
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When Real Madrid paid £48m to sign Zinedine Zidane from Juventus in 2001, they set a world transfer record that would stand for eight years. The same club smashed it twice in a matter of days when they signed Kaka and Cristiano Ronaldo in the big summer splurge of 2009, and again four years later when they snapped up Gareth Bale for a reported £86million. Los Merengues have not lost their lust for Galactico signings, but it appears their next superstar recruit won’t cost them a penny - not in terms of a transfer fee at least. We’ve come a long way since the transfer record was first set in 1893 by Willie Groves’ move from West Brom to Aston Villa, the Scotsman commanding a bumper £100 fee. Today the record stands at a massive £198m, set when Paris Saint-Germain exploited the buyout clause in Neymar’s contract to prise him from Barcelona. That move triggered a huge inflation in the market - all of the top 10 most expensive transfers in history came after that move. After several quiet windows though, it’s beginning to look as though that Neymar record may never be beaten. Outside of the Premier League, spending has plummeted as clubs look to tighten their belts after the Covid-19 crisis, but it’s perhaps not just the pandemic that is putting the squeeze on transfer fees. In July 2017, just four days before Neymar completed his move to Paris, Arsene Wenger predicted a future in which huge fees would put clubs o , leading to more players moving on Bosman deals when their contracts expired. The Frenchman said prophetically: “You will see more and more players going into the final year of the contract because no club will want to pay the amount demanded…in the next 10 years, it will become usual.” Just last summer, arguably the greatest player of all time, Lionel Messi, followed Neymar’s path to France after the end of his contract. In that case the Argentine had wanted to stay, only to be told Barca couldn’t a ord it - in part due to how they’d squandered that Neymar fee. However, Messi’s situation does point to a possible future in which the game’s greatest talents move freely. When the winter window closed on January 31, a quite staggering array of big names were free to negotiate a precontract agreement elsewhere. Paul Pogba, Paulo Dybala, Ousmane Dembele and, of course, Kylian Mbappe were all in a position where they could move on in 2022 and earn their current clubs nothing, a state of a airs that would have seemed unthinkable even five years ago. For players - and agents - the benefit of such a situation is obvious. Once you hit the final six months of your deal, you are free to negotiate
with anyone else, giving huge leverage. If Manchester United want to tie down Pogba, they’ll have to contend with agent Mino Raiola touting lucrative o ers - real or otherwise - from Europe’s leading lights. That in itself won’t end the transfer fee as we know it, but at least some clubs are keen to move to a new model. The derided European Super League included a plan for a trading model as seen in most American sports, with the owners of elite clubs sick of paying through the nose for transfer fees then stumping up for huge contracts. The 12 were forced to back away from their breakaway plan but you can bet it’ll return in some form, probably bringing back the transfer model too. While it may be tempting to look at this curb on excess as a good thing, it could have a potentially disastrous impact on clubs outside the top five leagues. The likes of Ajax, Celtic and Slavia Prague have shown the value in buying cheaply - or developing your own young talent - before selling high. Virgil van Dijk - the 18th most expensive w transfer of all time - made his way to the top via the Eredivisie, the Scottish Premiership and a lower-ranked Premier League side, who all made a nice profit when he departed. No one will weep for PSG if and when the second most expensive footballer of all time leaves on a free transfer. But in a game where those outside the elite are reliant on player trading to even occasionally compete, the move to Bosman deals may not be the boon it first appears.
ABOVE: Neymar moved to PSG for a record £198m in 2017
LEFT: Messi headed to Paris on a free transfer last summer
BOTTOM: Arsene Wenger predicted that more players would move on free transfers
WE CAN'T BOTH BE CHAMPIONS
A A t least one of Europe’s heavyweights will not be travelling to Qatar in December for the 2022 World Cup. Both Italy and Portugal failed to make it through the qualification stage of the tournament and fate has placed them within one of the three paths to play-o glory. This may very well feel like a case of deja vu for the Italian side, who similarly failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia, having fallen at the final hurdle in the playo s to Sweden. Despite happening just four years ago, it must feel like a lifetime ago for Azzurri fans, who have since seen their team become European champions under Roberto Mancini, while also claiming the record for the longest unbeaten run in international football. As a result, the 2006 World Cup champions have good reason for being in a state of disbelief, having been pipped at the post on the final day by the impressive Switzerland team who won Group C. Mancini’s side maintained their unbeaten streak throughout, but it was their failure to score that saw Italy demoted to second with a disappointing four draws from their eight games. It is precisely this issue that has the Italians fearful for this year’s play-o campaign, as Ciro Immobile has failed to reproduce his club form for the Azzurri, managing just two goals in the qualifiers. With Andrea Belotti and
ABOVE & LEFT: Euro 2020 winners Italy are in danger of missing out on the 2022 World Cup
RIGHT: Record international goalscorer Cristiano Ronaldo won the Golden Boot at Euro 2020 ‘PORTUGAL HAVE PLENTY OF ISSUES TO IRON OUT’
Moise Kean also struggling to impress with the national team, Mancini has resorted to calling up Mario Balotelli, four years since the striker’s last appearance for his country. Whether this gamble pays o will become clear in March. Portugal, on the other side of the draw to Italy, have traditionally had no problem with international goalscoring. There is little more to be said about Cristiano Ronaldo’s phenomenal form with the national team, with the Selecao captain having recently broken the all-time record for international goals with 115. Even at the advanced age of 37, the Manchester United player won the Golden Boot at Euro 2020, despite being knocked out in the round of 16. However, Fernando Santos’s side have plenty of their own issues to iron out ahead of the playo s. Portugal were in pole position to qualify from Group A until the final matchday, when they were beaten by an exceptional Serbian side who are enjoying a golden generation of talent. Dragan Stojkovic is able to call on the likes of Dusan Tadic, Dusan Vlahovic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, the former bagging a goal and an assist in the 2-1 win at the Estadio da Luz. For Santos, the di culty has been in finding a balance in a side that has for so long been built around Ronaldo’s talents. The Portuguese talisman will be 38 when the play-o s take place, and while retaining his skills as a lethal goalscorer, he is no longer a ball carrier. Ronaldo has never been one for tracking back much, which can leave the Selecao vulnerable defensively, especially in situations where opponents manage to neutralise the No 7’s threat. Confusing matters further, Portugal are currently blessed with a world-class crop of players in addition to their talismanic captain. Manchester-
ABOVE: Portugal won Euro 2016 but could also miss this year’s World Cup
BELOW: Steve McClaren endured a torrid time as England manager TOP SERIE A THERE'S BEEN PICKS A FEW BAD There’s a concern that Serie A has lost its lustre this season as Romelu Lukaku MISTAKES moved on, but there are still plenty of players to keep an eye on, says Ciro Di Brita. With either Italy or Portugal set to miss out on the 2022 World Cup, Greg Murray TAMMY ABRAHAM remembers some other big teams who English striker Abraham arrives from failed to qualify for major tournaments Chelsea for a reported €40m fee, boosting in the past Jose Mourinho’s attacking options after the departure of Edin Dzeko to Inter. The This is not the first time that Italy have 23-year-old struggled to find minutes on been in this position, and fans will be the field last season when Thomas Tuchel hoping that the Azzurri have learned took over at Chelsea but still managed to from the mistakes of 2018. However, Italy score 12 times in all competitions. are in good company, with a number of other top teams failing to qualify for major FEDERICO CHIESA tournaments since the turn of the century. Fresh from helping Italy win the European England, runners-up in Italy’s Euro 2020 Championship the 23-year-old will be triumph, failed to make it to the 2008 hoping to continue the explosive form he European Championship, as a team displayed during the tournament. Forming boasting the likes of Steven Gerrard and a potentially devastating front-three Frank Lampard were defeated by Croatia which also includes Cristiano Ronaldo and at Wembley. The loss saw the end of Steve Paulo Dybala, it will be interesting to see McClaren’s brief tenure as manager and if coach Max Allegri takes the shackles o ushered in the Fabio Capello era. his attacking players. While England were able to rapidly turn around their failure, it took longer for a OLIVIER GIROUD Netherlands side that six years previously The France World Cup Winner has finally were World Cup runners-up. Under Guus arrived in Serie A having been linked with Hiddink and then Dick Advocaat, the a move to the peninsula for years and will Dutch failed to qualify for both Euro 2016 now team up with fellow veteran striker and the subsequent World Cup, before Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Giroud will be tasked making their return to major tournaments with providing the firepower and linkup with an underwhelming last-16 exit at play for the Rossoneri to compete in both Euro 2020. the Champions League and Serie A. Current FIFA World Rankings leaders Belgium had an even worse blip in DENZEL DUMFRIES their international history, missing five Wing back Dumfries showcased the full successive tournaments between 2004 array of his skills during the summer’s and 2012. It was under Marc Wilmots European Championship despite that the current golden generation was the Netherlands crashing out of the ushered in, and 10 years later, for whom tournament to the Czech Republic. The the upcoming World Cup may mark their 25-year-old scored twice and looks ready last opportunity to win a trophy. to fill the gap vacated by Achraf Hakimi’s Finally, although less broadcasted in departure to PSG. Europe, Uruguay’s failure to qualify for the 2006 World Cup came as a huge surprise VICTOR OSIMHEN to many in South America. La Celeste may The Nigerian striker had a bit of a start not have the reputation of their Brazilian stop season last term. Despite su ering or Argentine rivals, but were largely injuries and missing games through expected to finish third in the qualifying Covid-19 the 22-year-old showed enough standings, only to be beaten by Paraguay promise to make him a real danger man and Ecuador. This failure saw Uruguay heading into this campaign. New Coach look to shake up their squad, leading to Luciano Spalletti will be hoping he can get the emergence of the likes of Edinson the most out of the attacker and improve Cavani and Luis Suarez, who fired their on his 10 goals from last year. nation to a fourth-place finish at the 2010 World Cup.
