Leonid Grinin http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/
PERIODIZATION OF HISTORY: A THEORETIC-MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS Presentation at XXI World Congress of Philosophy. Rethinking Philosophy Today. July 30 – August 5, 2008. Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
There is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, but it deals with exceptionally complex types of processual and temporal phenomena and thus it simplifies historical reality. But as Karl Jaspers noted, "‌ the purpose of such simplifications is to indicate the essentials".
I’d like to suggest a model of periodization of history based on my theory of historical process. I shall also demonstrate the possibilities of mathematical modeling of temporal processes in historical development.
According to the theory that I propose, the historical process can be subdivided more effectively into four major stages. The transition from any of these stages into another is the change of all the basic characteristics of the respective stage. However, in addition to this principle basis of periodization, we need an additional basis, by means of which the chronology may be worked out in detail. As such an additional basis I propose the production principle that describes the major qualitative stages of the development of the world productive forces.
I single out four principles of production:
1. Hunter-Gatherer 2. Craft-Agrarian 3. Industrial 4. Information-Scientific
The change in production principles is connected with the three PRODUCTION REVOLUTIONS. The three production revolutions are the following:
• the Agrarian (or Neolithic ) Revolution; • the Industrial Revolution; • the Information-Scientific Revolution. So the starting point of such revolutions can be regarded as a convenient and natural point from which the chronology of stage change can be established.
There has been written a lot about each of the three production revolutions. However there is a small number of studies concerning these revolutions as recurrent phenomena, each of them representing an extremely important landmark in the history of humankind. So I try to develop a theory of production revolution that I now present to your attention. According to this theory each production revolution has its own cycle. We can speak about two qualitative phases and a sort of interruption between them. Each phase of a production revolution represents a major breakthrough in production.
A general scheme of two phases of production revolution within my theory looks as follows:
Agrarian Revolution: • the first phase is the transition to primitive hoe agriculture and animal husbandry; • the second phase is the transition to irrigation or non-irrigation plough agriculture.
Industrial Revolution: • the first phase is the vigorous development of seafaring and trade, mechanization on the basis of water engine and other processes in the 15th and 16th centuries;
• the second phase is the industrial breakthrough of the 18th century and the first third of the 19th century which is connected with the introduction of various machines and steam energy.
Information-Scientific Revolution: • the first phase began in the 1940s and 1950s with breakthroughs in automation, production of synthetic materials, but especially in the development of electronic means of control, communication and information.
• However, it appears possible to speak about its forthcoming second phase which may start within a few decades. Judging by the recent scientific, biotechnological and medical inventions, the second phase of this revolution may start with changing human biological nature.
The overall cycle of the production principle can be represent in a cycle concluding 6 phases.
• • • • • •
The first phase – "transitional". The second phase – "adolescence". The third phase – "florescence". The fourth phase – "maturity". The fifth phase – "high maturity". The sixth phase – "preparatory". After this in some societies a transition to a new production principle can take place, and a new cycle begins.
I believe that the production revolution is connected with the first three phases of the production principle. So the production revolution can be regarded as an integral part (the first "half") of the production principle. In this Figure you can see the correlation between the phases of production principles and phases of production revolutions.
Figure 1. Correlation between Phases of Production Principles and Phases of Production Revolutions
I suppose that it would be better speak about the historical process not since the modern datings of the emergence of Homo sapiens sapiens (100,000 – 200,000 years ago) but only from the period about 40,000 − 50,000 years ago. That is because I believe that only after the landmark of 40,000 years ago we can speak about the first indisputable indications of truly human culture and society.
Unfortunately I can’t give details of every phase of my chronology because it will take too much time. I would like to dwell only on some datings. But you can see the datings of each phase of all principles of production in this Table
Table 1. Chronology of Production Principle Phases Produc-tion principle
1st phase
2nd phase
3rd phase
4th phase
5th phase
6th phase
Overall for pro-duction princi-ple
1. HunterGatherer
40 000– 30 000 (38 000– 28 000 BCE) 10
30000– 22 000 (28 000– 20 000 BCE) 8
22 000 – 17 000 (20 000– 15 000 BCE) 5
17000 – 14 000 (15 000– 12 000 BCE) 3
14 000– 11 500 (12 000– 9500 BCE) 2.5
11 500– 10 000 (9500– 8000 BCE) 1.5
40 000– 10 000 (38 000– 8000 BCE) 30
2. CraftAgrarian
10 000– 7300 (8000– 5300 BCE) 2.7
7300– 5000 (5300– 3000 BCE) 2.3
5000– 3500 (3000– 1500 BCE) 1.5
3500– 2200 (1500– 200 BCE) 1.3
2200– 1200 (200 BCE – 800 CE) 1.0
800– 1430 CE 0.6
10 000–570 (8000 BCE–1430 CE) 9.4
1430– 1600 0.17
1600– 1730 0.13
1730– 1830 0.1
1830– 1890 0.06
1890– 1929 0.04
1929– 1955 0.025
1430–1955 0.525
1955– 2000 (1955– 1995) 0.04–0.045
2000– 2040 (1995– 2030) 0.035–0.04
2040– 2070 (2030– 2055) 0.025– 0.03
2070– 2090 (2055– 2070) 0.015– 0.02
2090– 2105 (2070– 2080) 0.01– 0.015
2105– 2115 (2080– 2090) 0.01
1955–2115 (2090) [forecast] 0.135– 0.160
3. In-dustrial
4. Infor-mationScientific
Table 1 (1). Chronology of Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle Phases • In this table you can see close-up the dating of each phase of Hunter-Gatherer principle of production. Production principle
1st phase
2nd phase
3rd phase 4th phase
5th phase
6th phase
Overall for production principle
HunterGatherer
40 000– 30 000 (38 000– 28 000 BCE) 10
30000– 22 000 (28 000– 20 000 BCE) 8
22 000 – 17000 – 14 000 17 000 (20 000– (15 000– 12 000 15 000 BCE) BCE) 3 5
14 000– 11 500 (12 000– 9500 BCE) 2.5
11 500– 10 000 (9500– 8000 BCE) 1.5
40 000– 10 000 (38 000– 8000 BCE) 30
• During in the first phase of Hunter-Gatherer production principle (c.40-30,000 BP) some new types of tools appeared. For that period more than 100 types of tools are known. • The third phase lasted till 18,000 – 16,000 BP. This is the period of the maximum spread of glaciers (referred to as the glacial maximum). • The sixth phase (c. 12,000–10,000 BP) was also connected with continuing climatic warming, environmental changes culminating in the transition to the Holocene and considerable progress in stone industries during the Neolithic period.
Table 1(2).
Chronology of Production Principle Phases
In this table you can see the datings of each phase of Craft-Agrarian principle of production.
Production principle
CraftAgrarian
1st phase
2nd phase
3rd phase
4th phase
5th phase
6th phase
Overall for production principle
10 000– 7300– 5000– 3500– 2200 3500 5000 7300 (8000– (5300– (3000– (1500– 200 1500 3000 5300 BCE) BCE) BCE) BCE) 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.7
2200– 1200 (200 BCE – 800 CE) 1.0
800– 1430 CE
10 000–570 (8000 BCE–1430 CE) 9.4
0.6
• The first phase of Craft-Agrarian productioin principle was connected with the beginning of agriculture which is dated within the interval 12,000 to 9,000 BP. • During the third phase, 5000–3500 BP the second stage of Agrarian revolution starts; animal husbandry, crafts and trade are differentiated into separate branches of the economy. • The sixth phase lasted from the 9th century till the first third of the 15th century CE. At its end one can observe the beginning of urban and economic growth in Europe.
Table 1 (3). Chronology of Production Principle Phases
You can see the datings of each phase of Industrial principle of production in this table.
Production principle
Industrial
1st phase 2nd phase 3rd phase 4th phase 5th phase 6th phase
1430– 1600 0.17
1600– 1730 0.13
1730– 1830 0.1
1830– 1890 0.06
1890– 1929 0.04
1929– 1955 0.025
Overall for production principle
1430– 1955 0.525
• The first phase of Industrial production principle was connected with the beginning of the industrial revolution of the 15th century to the late 16th century. • The third phase of the industrial production principle began in the second third of the 18th century in England. It was connected with the second phase of the industrial revolution that led to the development of the machinebased industries and the transition to steam energy. • The sixth phase continued till the mid 20th century. A vigorous intensification of production and the introduction of scientific methods of its organization took place during this period.
• The first phase of the information-scientific production principle took place between the 1950s and mid 1990s, when because of information-scientific revolution a vigorous development of information technologies and the start of real economic globalization were observed. • The second phase started in the mid 1990s in conjunction with the development and wide diffusion of user-friendly computers, communication technologies and so on. It continues up to the present.
• The
information-scientific production principle is only at its beginning; its first phase has just been finished and the second one has just started. However, its main results are still forthcoming. • The third phase may begin approximately in the 2030s – 2040s •For the expected lengths of the fourth, fifth, and sixth phases of the information-scientific production principle see the Tables . Of course, all the calculations of the following phases' lengths are highly hypothetical.
Table 1 (4). Production principle InformationScientific
Chronology of Production Principle Phases
1st phase
2nd phase
1955– 2000 (1955– 1995)
2000– 2040 (1995– 2030)
3rd phase 4th phase
2040– 2070 (2030– 2055)
2070– 2090 (2055– 2070)
5th phase
6th phase
2090– 2105 (2070– 2080)
2105– 2115 (2080– 2090)
Overall for production principle 1955–2115 (2090) [forecast] 0.135–0.160
0.04–0.045
0.035– 0.04
0.025– 0.03
0.015– 0.02
0.01– 0.015
0.01
Table 2. Production Principles and Their Phase Lengths (in thousands of years) Production principle InformationScientific
1st phase
2nd 3rd 4th 5th phase phase phase phase
6th phase
0.04– 0.045
0.035 0.025 0.015 – – – 0.04 0.03 0.02
0.01
0.01– 0.015
Overall for production principle 0.135– 0.160
In general, Information-Scientific production principle may finish by the end of this century, or by the beginning of the next one. This implies an immense acceleration of development that can be hardly compatible with the biopsychic human nature because in view of the growing life expectations all the immense changes (from 2040s to 2090s) will happen within the span of one generation that will appear in the 2010s. But if they occur within a lifespan of one generation, it is not clear whether human physical and psychic abilities will be sufficient to stand this; what price will be paid for such a fast adaptation?
Now let’s pass to the mathematical part. The proposed periodization is based on the idea of change of the production principles as recurrent developmental cycles (each of them includes six phases). You can see the four macrocycles in the Diagrams. You’ll see curves of each of them have similar exponential shape.
Diagram 1. Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle 10000 (8000 BCE)
Phase VI 11500
Phase V 14000
Phase IV 17000
Phase III 22000 (20000 BCE)
Phase II 30000
Phase I 40000 (38000 BCE.) years BP (BCE.)
42000 40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 30000 28000 26000 24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 (38000) (28000) (20000) (14000) (12000) (8000)
8000
6000 (4000)
Diagram 2. Craft-Agrarian Production Principle
1430 CE
Phase VI 800 CE
Phase V 200 BCE
Phase IV 1500 BCE (3500 BP)
Phase III
3000 BCE
Phase II 5300 BCE
Phase I
8000 BCE (10000 BP)
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
BCE
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1000
CE
2000
Diagram 3. Industrial Production Principle
1955 Phase VI
1929
Phase V
1890 Phase IV 1830
Phase III 1730 Phase II 1600 Phase I 1430 CE
н. э.
1400 1430 1460 1490 1520 1550 1580 1610 1640 1670 1700 1730 1760 1790 1820 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
Diagram 4. Information-Scientific Production Principle 2090 2115
Phase VI
2080 2105 2070
Phase V
2090 2055
Phase IV
2070 2030 2040
Phase III 1995
Phase II
2000 1955
Phase I 1940
1950 1960
1970
1980 1990
2000 2010
2020
2030 2040
2050
2060 2070
2080 2090
2100
2110 2120
2130
Note: the broken line indictates the forecast version for the expected development of t production principle corresponding to dates in brackets in the 5th line of T able 1.
However, each subsequent cycle is shorter in time than the previous one due to the acceleration of historical development. This is obviously seen especially in the Table that presents the absolute lengths of the phases in thousands of years.
Table 2. Production Principles and Their Phase Lengths (in thousands of years) 1st phase
2nd phase
3rd phase
4th phase
5th phase
6th phase
Overall for production principle
1. Hunter-Gatherer
10
8
5
3
2.5
1.5
30
2. Craft-Agrarian
2.7
2.3
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.6
9.4
0.17
0.13
0.1
0.06
0.04
0.025
0.525
0.04– 0.045
0.035– 0.04
0.025– 0.03
0.015 – 0.02
0.01– 0.015
0.01
0.135– 0.160
Production principle
3. Industrial 4. InformationSci-entific
No doubt these are recurrent cycles, because within each cycle in some respect the development follows the same pattern: every phase within every cycle plays a functionally similar role. Moreover, the proportions of the lengths of the phases and their combinations remain approximately the same. You can see this in the following Tables which also present the average rates for all the production principles.
Table 3. Ratio of Each Phase [and Phase Combination] Length to the Total Length of Respective Production Principle [%%] (presents results of my calculations of the ratio of each phase's length to the length of the respective production principle using a rather simple methodology). Production principle
1
2
3
4
5
6
1–2
3–4
5–6
1–3
4–6
1. HunterGatherer
33.3
26.7
16. 7
10
8.3
5
60
26.7
13.3
76.7
23.3
2. CraftAgrarian
28.7
24. 5
16.0
13.8
10.6
6.4
53.2
29.8
17
69.1
30.9
32.4
24.8
19
11.4
7.6
4.8
57.1
30.5
12.4
76.2
23.8
9.4 (7.4)
6.3 (7.4)
9
5.6
3. Industrial 4. InformationScientific
Mean
28.1 25 18.8 12.5 (29.6) (25.9) (18.5) (11.1)
30.6
25.3
17.6
11.9
53.1 31.3 15.6 71.9 28.1 (55.6) (29.6) (14.8) (74.1) (25.9)
55.9
29.6
14.6
73.5
26.5
Table 4. Comparison of Phase Length Ratios for Each Production Principle [%%] employs a similar methodology to compare lengths of phases (and combinations of phases) within one production principle. Production principle
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
(1+2): (3+4)
(3+4): (5+6)
(1+2+3) : (4+5+6)
1. HunterGatherer
125
160
166.7
120
166.7
225
200
328.6
2. CraftAgrarian
117.4
153.3
115.4
130
166.7
178.6
175
224.1
3. Industrial
130.8
130
166.7
150
160
187.5
246.2
320
112.5 (114.3)
133.3 (140)
150 (166.7)
133.3 (150)
150 (100)
170 (187.5)
200 (200)
255.5 (285.7)
121.4
144.2
149.7
133.3
160.9
190.3
205.3
282.1
4. InformationScientific
Mean
In general, my mathematical analysis represented in diagrams and tables indicates the following points: • evolution of each production principle in time has recurrent features, as it is seen in the Diagrams • there are stable mathematical proportions between lengths of phases and phase combinations within each production principle as it was seen in the Tables • the cycle analysis clearly indicates that the development speed increases sharply just as a result of production revolutions as it is seen in following Diagram
Diagram 5. Evolution of Historical Process in Time 2115 2105 2090 2070 2040 2005 2000 1955
Formation IV (information-s cientific production principle)
1929 1890 1830 1730 1600
Formation III (industrial production principle)
800
Formation II (craft-agrarian production principle) Formation I (hunter-gatherer production principle) 38000 BCE (40000 BP)
1500 5300
20000
BCE
200
3000
8000 10500
15000 28000
1430
12000
0 CE
If we calibrate the Y-axis of the last diagram, the curve of historical process acquires a hyperbolic rather than exponential shape, which indicates that we are dealing here with a blow-up regime. You can see it in the final diagram.
Diagram 6. Hyperbolic Model of Historical Process Dynamics 2000 1800 1600
2000 CE
1400 1200 1000
1955 CE
800 600 400 200 0 -50000 -200
38 000 BCE -40000
8 000 1430 CE BCE -30000
BCE -400
-20000
-10000
0
CE
Thank you for attention!