PV market wrap

Tracking the PV market

“DOWN BUT NOT OUT” So says PV market ‘Woracle’ Warwick Johnston of SunWiz, who reckons despite the lower uptake of the sub100kW PV market in recent months things bode well for next year.

Before we get to that, a look at this year’s downturn, or market correction caused in part by post-COVID dynamics.

“During the restrictions caused by the pandemic, homeowners were investing far more on home improvements including rooftop solar systems so the PV industry did quite well during that period,” Warwick said.

“After that the community went from being stuck in their homes to getting out and about and spending money on travel and restaurants, so the rooftop PV sector started sliding backwards.”

Tasmania is the exception to the slide, whereas Victoria is well behind previous PV uptake rates, as is WA. Generally, no state is doing particularly well, all are typically down 15 to 20% on the previous year, Warwick explained. “That’s a bit of a grim statement but unfortunately that’s how it is.”

However steep rises in electricity bills making front-page news, and concerns over energy security led to a spike in inquiries in solar power systems and storage this year.

“More homeowners were getting quotes, however that has not yet resulted in ‘conversion’; that is the expressed level of interest is not commensurate with actual take up,” Warwick told Smart Energy.

Meanwhile the commercial and industrial PV market has registered a recent uptick, following the sector’s disproportionate impact during COVID.

Warwick’s observations are echoed by Green Energy Markets whose recent Solar

National capacity installed Year to date capacity compared to previous years

Graph courtesy SunWiz

Snapshot reveals commercial system registrations in September were 29% up on the year-to-date average. Commercial installed capacity was 49MW, the highest level since December 2021 and 39% above the prior yearto-date average.

Queensland fared particularly well, registering 90 large commercial systems (+95kW) representing over 20MW in September; more than triple its 3-year monthly average (26) and the highest monthly number by any state. (The previous highest being 54 in NSW, July 2022.)

Overview

According to Warwick the PV market in Australia is somewhat different compared to overseas. We present as a low-price market sporting cheaper brands and more competitive prices for systems which poses some difficulties for overseas manufacturers.

“It will be harder for manufacturers to justify sending products here than to places such as the US whose Inflation Reduction Act seeks to promote sustainability and will stimulate the market and in turn receive more attention from manufacturers,” Warwick said.

“And Europe is facing far greater electricity price rises than here which likewise will result in more action in the PV sector, so much of what happens in the product market in 2023 will be affected by international factors.”

Looking ahead

Locally, higher electricity bills are coming through the letterbox, and coupled with the backlog of interest indicated by quotes, the market could be in for a surge.

The end-of-year reduction in STC quantities [small scale technology certificates] usually galvanises action too, Warwick said, the year will likely end strongly just as it does every year.

“My take is that we will start next year on a much stronger footing than we did this year, but this will be tempered by system price rises and longer paybacks, so we may essentially flat line; much depends on electricity price rises.

“Further down the track with more electric vehicles coming onto our roads – as is the plan under the federal government’s Driving the Nation strategy – there will be increased interest in home energy and storage systems.”

Other positive factors include the stronger emissions reductions targets and renewables policies being set by the ALP and states, all of which lends confidence in the community as it reinforces the need to decarbonise the economy with all playing a part. And right now, as we reach the end of the year, it’s a good time for PV installers and retailers to start planning for 2023, Warwick says.

“By taking a retrospective look at the market as well as current dynamics and the future that is unfolding dealers can adjust their business strategies to set themselves up for the year ahead.”

It goes without saying that the marketsavvy team at SunWiz is poised to help with their sophisticated range of PV market analysis tools and projections and other intel clarifying the what, where, when and why. www.sunwiz.com.au

A quick message from the Smart Energy Team: Looking forward to seeing SunWiz and its fearless leader the lightsaber wielder at Smart Energy 2023 in Sydney on May the 4th next year. Indeed, “May the Force be with us all.”

In other wraps

• According to APVI, as of 30

September 2022 there were more than 3.27 million

PV installations in Australia, with a combined capacity greater than 28.2 gigawatts. • The Green

Energy Markets

Deemed Report which took in the first three quarters of the year reveals 26.3 million STCs had been created year-to-date; 24.7% below the 34.99 million of the same time last year.

Ouch. • A snapshot of September shows PV STC monthly creation of 3.1 million was 14% below September 2021; while PV small scale generation units (SGU) represented 91.3% of total monthly creation; down on the prior 12-month average of 91.5%. • Greenbank Environmental increased its market share to 4.2% in September, its highest monthly market share since January 2019 (4.8%). Greenbank’s 2022 year-to-date market share at end September was 3.5%, up from 3% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2020. Congratulations Ria

O’Hehir and team! • Energy market mix: the AEMO chart above is a positive illustration of the extent of renewables penetration in the NEM.