MARKET EVOLUTION
POWER AND PERSISTENCE HARD FOUGHT CAMPAIGNS don’t always produce the desired results but the outcome of the crusade over Victoria’s Solar Homes scheme is something that is worth celebrating. The industry that was looking down the barrel at more job losses and business closures has won a reprieve, with rebate quotas for the month of September tripled to 9,750. Numbers of rebates between now and the end of 2019 have been doubled to factor in pent-up market demand and seasonal factors. During the first half of 2020 the number of rebates will also increase by almost 50 per cent, delivering 23,000 additional rebates for the 2019/2020 financial year. Further remodeling will result in fortnightly rebate releases and a more streamlined approvals process. The changes that address many of the industry’s concerns were delivered just in time to avoid more job losses and business closures that had plunged Victoria’s solar industry into crisis. Since April the program had caused widespread damage with hundreds of job losses and many business closures, with no reprieve in sight. Amid the escalating crisis the Smart Energy Council staged rallies on the steps of parliament house and outside the Premier’s office, and took concerns to the media. High-level meetings were held with the Victorian Government. Responding to pressure from the Smart Energy Council and action by members, the Victorian government agreed to substantial changes under the Solar Homes Program. “We called on Victoria’s Premier and Energy Minister to take immediate and decisive action to fix the problem and they listened. The changes to the Solar Homes Program help put the industry back on track,” John Grimes said following the breakthrough announced with Victoria’s Solar Homes Minister Lily D’Ambrosio. “Quotas have been lifted to better reflect market demand. This is a big win for the Victorian solar industry. It also reflects a genuine desire by the government to respond to industry concerns.
10 SPRING 2019
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The changes to the Solar Homes Program help put the industry back on track … quotas have been lifted to better reflect market demand.
“We know this won’t fix all our problems immediately but getting the industry back to work, and preventing more company closures in the short term was a key objective… Overall the agreement is a step in the right direction,” John Grimes said. Modelling by SunWiz reveals that during the months from October 2018 to May 2019 the rooftop PV industry registered a monthly average of 5,300 residential installations, peaking in March with 6,272. Given that 1,600 installations proceeded without a rebate each month, SunWiz calculates that the industry needs to achieve 3,700 rebates monthly to achieve a ‘steady state’. Based on the government’s revised allocation of 5,000 to 6,500 rebates each month, this should be sufficient to meet market demand. “This forward loading will help the industry recalibrate after many months on a starvation diet. But it’s going to take all of September, October’s and November’s extra rebates to compensate for revenues lost during the May/June famine and the starvation diet of July/August,” says Warwick Johnston, adding “It’s not hard to imagine demand for rebates exceeding 5,000 a month in the first half of 2020.” Minister Lily D’Ambrosio who commented the scheme was always subject to assessment declared “We’re strengthening this landmark program, which has already helped 35,000 households put a power station on their roof, saving them hundreds of dollars a year on their energy bills. “We’ve listened to Victorians and to the solar industry about how we can make Solar Homes even better. These measures provide a shot in the arm for the industry.”
