Cover Story India’s Electric Vehicle Sales Outlook 2023

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that transportation accounts for approximately 23% of all world's energy-related greenhouse gasses emissions. Road transport accounts for 72%. To combat climate change, Indian governments have progressively tightened emission regulations for passenger cars and moved to electrification The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan, launched in 2012 by India, outlined India's vision of vehicle electrification It predicted rapid growth in the production and use of EVs Vision 2030 of NITIAayog calls for 70% of all commercial vehicles, 30% of private cars and 40% of buses to become electric, and 80% of two-wheeler (2W), and three-wheeler (3W) sales to be electric by 2030 (NITI Aayog & Rocky Mountains Institute 2019)

India’s Electric Vehicle (EV) Sales Outlook

India is a price-sensitive nation and EV adoption is being driven by not only environmental concerns, but also affordability and sustainability EVs provide a long-term, more cost-effective solution to rising oil prices They are also more popular than petrol-powered cars due to their lower maintenance and operating costs Data from VAHAN portal shows that EV sales by segments (2W-3W, 4W and E-Buses), increased 210% in the calendar year (CY22) when compared to the calendar year (CY21).

The electric two-wheeler (E-2W) segment is India's most competitive in terms of EV adoption It has many advantages, including comfort low cost ownership fiscal incentive and ease of travel E2W & E-3W are the most popular and fastest adopters It is expected that this trend will continue, as there is a lower cost of difference between ICE & EV (E-2/3W) than for electric fourwheelers (E4W) With the new government regulations on delivery fleets, E-2/3W is likely to see a rapid increase in market share over the next 2 years After approximately 4-5 years of experience in the market, electric four-wheelers (E-4W), will be more popular According to an independent study by CEEF, financing India's transition to electric vehicles, the EV market in India will be a US$206 billion opportunity by 2030 if India maintains steady progress to meet its ambitious 2030 target, India’s 2030 vision of e-mobility (i e 70% of all commercial cars, 30% of private cars, 40% of buses, and 80% of two-wheeler (2W) and three-wheeler (3W) sales to be electric by 2030) translates into 102 million EVs