20 minute read
OPINION
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE INTEGRATION OF MORE SOLAR PV ON GRID
AUTHOR:
SAMER ZAWAYDEH
INDEPENDENT ENGINEER
The Solar PV sector exponentially grew since 2009 coupled with reduction in prices and increase in efficiency in the Solar PV modules. This led to more demand by consumers to integrate large utility scale projects and net metering projects. In addition, the Solar PV off grid market thrives in places like south east Asia and Africa where many countries suffer from low percentages of grid availability to the population.
Oil importing countries started developing their regulatory frameworks in order to implement Solar PV projects and reduce their dependency on imported fossil fuel and the problems associated with the fluctuation of international oil prices on the local economies. In addition, oil producing countries started taking advantage of the low cost of Solar PV projects and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and integrating utility scale large Solar PV project on grid in order to reduce their cost of subsidized electricity to their citizens.
With more Solar PV projects on Grid, the available electricity during the Sun Peak Hours between 10am to 2pm with continue to increase beyond the demand. This will drive the grid operator to reduce the energy from the conventional electricity generating units and even shut them down during the day and restarting them during the night in order to meet the peak demand during the night. These new operational requirements will put stresses on the conventional units and require more maintenance, which will be passed by the generator sector to the system operator. In addition, the reduced energy production by the conventional generating units might have penalties that will be paid by the system operator. Therefore, these “Hidden Costs” of integrating more renewable Solar PV on grid must be part of the economic studies during the next phase of integrating more Solar PV on grid.
While the grid operator is facing the immediate impacts of integrating more Solar PV on grid, the policy makers will be driven to adopt more policies that reduce the long-term impacts and promoting more electrification of heating and cooling, developing electrical transportation markets, and adopting time of use tariff.
With the development of the storage technologies, nations around the globe like Germany are subsidizing the integration of Lithium ion battery storage at the consumer side, California are increasing the installed Solar PV storage capacity at the generation, transmission, distribution and demand side, and Massachusetts has developed a “Renewable Peak Demand Strategy” driving the integration of more lithium ion battery storage on grid to make more renewable energy available during the peak demand hours by using load shifting. Other advance grid operators in Australia have adopted the Virtual Power Plants (VPP) technologies for the integration of thousands of Solar PV system with storage across the grid that is accessible to the grid operator, which provides on demand energy instead of building new fossil fuel plants.
Faced with the dangers of climate change, engineers have the opportunity to use Solar PV energy without GHG emissions, available locally in each country, at the lowest LCOE in the world to meet the demand for more energy, alleviate energy poverty, and improve the economic conditions. Continuous learning, training, awareness, and development of regulatory frameworks and design codes are necessary to face the rapid changes in technologies and the demand for safe and efficient integration of more Solar PV on the Grid.
WHAT IS THE SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2022?
Prelude
Today, in the Middle East, solar and other renewable energy sources are paving the way toward electrification and decarbonization of end usages. Despite Covid, the past year has seen continued improvements in the competitiveness of solar; thanks to further decreases in the price of solar modules, increasing technological progress (eg modules batteries, inverters ), and use of smart digital tools, and improved risk mitigation methodologies. The industry has also demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis its resilience and capacity to develop ingenious solutions to overcome the issues of supply, manpower, and access to sites and reach out to clients. In many ways, the crisis has positioned solar at the forefront, as a sustainable and reliable source of energy. In the year 2022, the Middle East solar market is estimated to observe good economic growth, with growth rates in different countries growing depending upon the level of natural resources prevailing in the country and the access to energy at affordable rates prevailing in such countries. The demand for power and energy has been growing in the region recently, with some countries generating high demand for power and energy, owing to the level of economic growth prevailing in their countries. The consumption of energy in the region is witnessing an increase over the past few years, owing to the growing population, higher economic growth in some nations, and better access to affordable energy in some parts of the region. The Middle East region, and the Gulf, in particular, has been home to record low solar tariffs in recent years. The region’s favorable solar conditions like the availability of cheap and sunny desert land, low labor costs, cheap project financing, supportive tax regimes, large projects benefitting from economies of scale, welldesigned tender structures, and decreasing PV component prices have been the contributing factors. Even though the industry experienced a slowdown during the global Covid-19 pandemic, solar energy is once again at the heart of economic recovery efforts and is expected to see a significant rise this year.
KARIM MEGHERBI
FOUNDING EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, EPDA
2021 saw mixed results in our energy transition. As economic growth resumed after the 2020 Covid crisis, our energy demand increased above 2019 level. Our CO2 emissions went close to 2019 level, a 0.8% decrease only compared to 2019, whereas we saw a 5.4% decrease in 2020.
There are three reasons why these numbers are not good news. The first one, is that to set our economies to a 1.5°C
Nevertheless, renewable capacities still increased in 2021 by 290GW compared to 260GW in 2019. Renewable energy represents now more than 90% of all new installed capacities in the power sector worldwide. In 2021, the world is producing more electricity from low carbon technology (nuclear and all renewable) than from coal, by 5 points.
An estimated 160GW solar capacity was installed in 2021, a 18 path, our energy demand needs, globally, to decrease (by 7
% by 2030 as per the IEA NZE scenario) mainly through energy efficiency, electrification, energy savings and behavioral change. And we’re doing the opposite. The second one, is that to fuel economic growth, as our energy transition is still in its infancy, many countries relied on traditional fossil energy. Coal demand has therefore rebounded and even exceeded 2019 levels. This means we are not fast enough in changing our energy systems. The third and last one, is that our CO2 emissions are not decreasing at the right path and the world is far from being on the right track to hold the line at 1.5°C. While we have troubles to manage growth and limit our use of fossil fuel, renewable energy is still growing steadily, despite major logistic issues faced by the industry due to the Covid crisis and a mismatch between demand and supply in raw material, leading to shortages of key components and soaring prices.
During 2021, most of the prices of the key components of solar panels and balance of system increased drastically. Aluminum, silver, steel and copper prices went up by up to 50% for some of them. Encapsulation material costs grew by more than 10%. Silicon prices nearly doubled, which led by itself to a 20% increase of solar panel prices. Meanwhile, the price of containers peaked at 10 times its 2019 average price. As a consequence, EPC prices have increased by up to 50% in some cases. Hence many developers are trying to extend the deadlines of their contracts to limit their financial losses as PPA tariffs were not awarded based on such assumptions.
%
increase compared to 2020. Major economies have pledged to reach net-zero between 2050 and 2060. Clearer policies are being implemented, and renewable energy remains a strategic component of our climate actions. While large investments in silicon are being made – as an example, Risen has pledged to invest more than 10 billion dollars between 2022 and 2035 in Malaysia in silicon production - and constraints on raw material have loosened up a bit, the situation is still not bright and forecasts in solar present some uncertainties due to this situation.
What’s more, as penetration rates of renewables continue to grow, our electricity systems are evolving and our regulatory frameworks, as well as our grid infrastructure, should be regularly adapted – all components of the energy transition have to move in parallel if we want to meet the agenda and minimize the costs of the energy transition. However, regulatory frameworks are very different from one country to another, which constitutes an incredible wealth of experience but also another layer of complexity. The projections of renewable energy capacities are therefore highly dependant on the successful implementation in each country of the different policies necessary to unlock their full potential.
Numbers still look positive according to SolarPower Europe which forecasts more than 200GW to be installed in 2022, a 25% growth compared to 2021. The figure below shows the projected top 12 solar markets with their respective additional potential capacities for 2021-2025 (low/medium/high case). In 2022, the leading markets are expected to be China and India. China is currently implementing a 5-year solar program, gigawatt projects are under development. In the wake of their net-zero announcement, the country unveiled an incredible 400GW solar and wind parc in the Gobi Desert to be commissioned by 2025 and 100GW is already under construction. India set an ambitious target for 2018-2022: to reach a cumulated 175GW capacity by 2022, including 100GW from solar and 60GW from the wind. In 2021 only, the country added 11GW of solar, reaching now the 100GW solar installed capacity. A new target for 2030 of 450GW was set in August 2021 and large tenders have resumed at an accelerated path, although developers see delays in the signing of the awarded PPA.
In Asia, Japan, Vietnam, and Korea will continue their growth. Europe is also expected to host several dynamic markets supported by the EU “fit-for-55” package, as European countries can now benefit from dedicated funds from the European Commission to implement their renewable strategy. France, which has obtained recently a 30.5 billion euros support from the European Commission for its 30GW program by 2026, will increase its annual capacities tendered. Spain is continuing its auctions. As the new government in Germany wants to accelerate the phasing out of coal, it increased its renewable energy targets. The Netherlands is also set to accelerate its energy transition. As for the US, they are expected to continue to move forward on their renewable energy program designed by the Biden administration. The tax credit mechanism is still in place, and the tandem “solar + batteries” has proved to be extremely competitive in recent tenders organized by operators to replace their thermal plants. The battery market will continue in this context its rapid growth. Since solar kWh price has now reached such a low level (below 40USD/MWh in many markets) that it is cheaper than most of the other alternatives – if not all in some markets –new business models are being implemented. As an example, the corporate PPA market is strongly growing, as seen in Europe or India, and this trend is expected to continue in 2022. 2022 is a strategic year right after COP26 where countries should accelerate their energy transition by developing massively renewable as a substitute for coal and gas, and start to electrify most of our processes with an aggressive agenda. Although solar capacities are increasing, we are still far behind the numbers necessary to meet our climate targets. The industry responses to the persisting covid crisis and raw material shortage are therefore to be monitored closely. Developing renewable only will also not be enough: as per the IEA NZE scenario, oil demand should fall below 25% of 2019 level by 2050, gas demand by 55%, and coal by 90%. Comprehensive strategies are necessary to change our energy system in such a short time. As we delay our actions, the path is getting narrower and narrower.
ENG. FARAH QAQISH
DEPUTY GM – IZZAT MARJI GROUP (JORDAN)
The global change and trends in adapting to new lifestyles are tremendous! One of the main issues, which were considered as a challenge, is on its way to being solved; energy security.
The global energy mix back in 1995 was mostly non-renewable, the adapted renewable technology at that time was mainly hydroelectricity. Since the beginning of the new century, and specifically in 2007, there was significant jumps in the global shares of adapting Solar PV systems and wind turbines, along with Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) projects. Nowadays, total renewable energy contributes to around 30% of the world's electricity production.
Regionally in the MENA, the legislations started to be issued after 2010, and within the past 10 years, aggressive strategies were formed and put in force. The strategies vary in the targeted renewables share and the time frame. For example, UAE’s 2018 strategy was to reach 44% of renewable energy by 2050, while the strategy of the KSA was to reach 50% of the renewable energy mix by the year 2030. In Jordan, the target was set to be 30% by 2030.
Most of the countries, who were optimistic about going green, have realized something important; apart from having geothermal and hydroelectric sources for electricity production, there is no way to reach 100% of electricity production from using other sources of renewable, mainly solar PV and wind energy, due to some technical obstacles. The main technical challenges are due to the intermittency of these types of energy sources. However; the straightforward solution can be summarized with one word: Storage.
The near future for harnessing more renewable energy looks very optimistic. The technical improvement of the technologies and components exceeds the expectations. Moreover; the storage technology is not far away from being commercially realized and feasible. Countries shall adopt new forms of electricity grids, where the sources of energy and the consumers of this energy can be aligned through controlling devices. This combination is called “smart grids” . It is essential to adapt those types of grids along with a smart controller, which uses artificial intelligence to increase the effectiveness and the efficiency of the whole cycle. Being said, smart grids cannot perform well without backup storage if the main purpose is to increase the renewable energy mix to the maximum. Therefore; the future outlook will rely mainly on storage technologies of either thermal or electrical types.
I expect more countries in the Gulf region specifically to get more involved in transforming into being green. Gulf countries, other than the UAE and the KSA, shall consider getting done with dedicated energy legislations and shall have their strategies with a huge focus on moving towards the exploitation of renewable fuels. These times are the most critical times because we know the fact that oil will no longer be exploitable nor feasible after 50 years. Even if oil and gas are currently available in some countries, it is much feasible to sell them and generate electricity from renewable sources. The financial effect is also positive as we are aware that the oil barrel current price is $80! Current electricity tariffs for some GCC countries are very low. This is the main drive to push people and corporates into adopting clean energy sources, along with governmental support such as incentives and subsidies.
On the other hand, other countries in the region, which don’t have oil and gas reserves, have no immediate option, but to transform directly into greening their energy production. The best global practices of utilizing renewable resources, in a way the technical challenges are not a problem, are to use energy production systems combined with storages systems for the utility-scale sizes and to allow residential and small commercial systems to use distributed energy resources (DER) without the need of storage. This combination will allow the country to reach better percentages of renewable resources.
Finally, the current chance of transforming our lives to a healthier and more efficient one will not come again. The overshoot day of 2021 took place on the 29th of July! We can still make it goes back to its normal situation, but we have to act now!
PRODUCT FEATURE
LONGi Hi-MO 5 shows excellent performance in dynamic load testing
As a global leader in solar technology, LONGi adheres to innovation and reliability as the core pillars of the company’s ongoing development. In order to validate the performance of its 182mm Hi-MO 5 module under extreme weather conditions, LONGi carried out rigorous dynamic load testing (DML) on the bifacial Hi-MO 5 at the China General Certification (CGC) laboratory.
The test sample was randomly selected from modules under mass production, with results showing that, under installation conditions of outer four hole bolt mounting (1400mm) with 1500Pa, Hi-MO 5 passed a 22,000 cycle test and was still in excellent condition, underlining the design and reliability of both module size and structure. Similar publicly released DML test results for oversized modules (2384mm×1303mm) showed them to have only survived 2,000 cycles, indicating that the fatigue limit of Hi-MO 5 is over 10 times that of a larger module.
Hi-MO 5 appearance is intact and power degradation only 0.05% after DML
In order to verify the performance of Hi-MO 5 in extreme conditions, the standard IEC DML test level was raised by a factor of 1.5, equating to a pressure of 1500Pa. The test result showed that, after 22,000 cycles, the module’s appearance remained intact and power degradation was only 0.05%, indicating excellent reliability and resistance under a wind speed of 54m/s.
Module size and smart soldering lead to better reliability
Following comprehensive structural analysis, Hi-MO 5 was designed with an area of approximately 2.6m2 to optimize the inner structure and linear density of its frame, making the module more stable and reliable under extreme weather conditions. Dynamic load testing is similar to fatigue testing, therefore fatigue property for different size modules is studied in this article. The following figure illustrates the correlation between fatigue life and applied stress of the 6005 T6 aluminum alloy (applied in almost all PV module frames). It is found that the higher the applied stress, the lower the fatigue life, meaning that obtaining the stress applied to the mounting hole of the frame is helpful in evaluating the fatigue behavior of different size modules.
Subjected to the same wind pressure, a larger module area means higher wind force applied to the mounting hole. The force applied to the mounting hole for different size modules is calculated in the following figure. It is found that the applied force of Hi-MO 5 (2.6m2) is approximately 1500N lower than that of a larger module (3.1 m2), which means the fatigue lifetime of the Hi-MO 5 is higher. The above DML test result is consistent with the theoretical analysis of fatigue behavior of different size modules.
Hi-MO 5 adopts crackless smart soldering technology, resulting in a soft connection between cells, which enables the module to experience little power degradation with no microcracks under high mechanical loading. After a year of mass production of Hi-MO 5, its high efficiency and reliability, convenient transportation and ease of manual handling has been fully endorsed by customers. LONGi will continue to adhere to its product design concept based on improved LCOE and focus on performance during the product’s full lifecycle.
PRODUCT FEATURE
Central plus String Inverter, Sungrow’s Multi-Faceted Approach Lightens up the Middle East Market
"The new PV installation capacity in the Middle East will exceed 50GW by 2030" , estimated by IHS. The Middle East, a region full of resources, boasts vast and sunny desert land, large PV installation capacity benefiting from scale economy, supportive policies from governments and public sectors, friendly financing environment etc., which provide perfect conditions for PV plant building. This market now is becoming a coveted region for global renewable enterprises to snag a spot. Amid the fierce competition, Sungrow’s multi-faceted approach, namely the combination of central and string inverters, has proved successful in this promising market. Statistically, by the end of June 2021, the cumulative installation of Sungrow's inverter equipment in the Middle East and North Africa exceeded 3GW; thus, ranking first in market share.
Seizing Opportunity Despite Challenges
Despite the policymakers’ support of solar plant construction in the Middle East, the environmental impacts are extremely challenging. Local desert environment experiences high temperatures, heavy amounts of dust, strong wind erosion, drought, and other complexities, resulting in high cost, difficult field construction, impaired power generation and taxing O&M. This region also has the world’s lowest PPA, making cost-reduction an even more demanding task. Moreover, this flourishing market also attracts a number of strong competitors from all over the world. Hence, struggling with the extreme geographical environment, ever-decreasing PPA and fierce competition, how is a company to stand out and take the lead? Sungrow’s approach has proven successful.
As the global leading inverter solution supplier for renewables, Sungrow has been committed to the development and production of PV inverter equipment since its establishment in 1997. With over 24 years of experience, Sungrow products boast incomparable advantages in performance, compatibility and flexibility. In addition, under the principle of “Design Meets Demands” , Sungrow advocates the best-fitting equipment selection on the basis of each plant with entral and string inverter solutions to meet customers’ actual needs. The inverters are equipped with intelligent forced air-cooling technology, IP66 and C5 high protection capability, which ensure stable and safe operation without derating in harsh environments. Sungrow has also set up a robust O&M platform to streamline the management procedure. As a result, Sungrow’s solution achieves lower LCOE and higher ROI for customers. Sungrow’s comprehensive and customized service is reputable among customers, too. It often deploys its service team in assisting customers with plant construction, troubleshooting, and operating. In order to shorten the operational time t of grid connection, Sungrow could also provide various additional services for customers, if they had such requests.
With the triple warrants provided by most modular design plans, high-quality products, and comprehensive services, Sungrow’s central and string inverter solutions have been successfully applied in several significant solar projects in the Middle East. Well-known examples include a 900MW project with Sungrow’s 6.25MW central inverter solution in Dubai Solar Park, a 526MW project with Sungrow’s 1500V SG250HX string inverter, an 800MW project in Qatar, a 2.1 GW project in Abu Dhabi and so on.
Forecasted Growth
Sungrow now owns over 20 branches, over 200 service outlets, and multiple important channel partners across the globe. Its products are being sold to more than 150 countries and regions worldwide. In the Middle East, Sungrow also set up its Dubai subsidiary in 2018, established the local sales network, warehousing system and after-sales service outlets in Saudi Arabia. Sungrow is 7x24 hour ready to serve customers. In the future, Sungrow looks forward to seeing its “Central plus String” combination bloom in more Middle Eastern regions, as an effort to promote its transition to clean energy.
