Q3 : 2020 Sarasota & Manatee Counties
Market Update
317 Iris St $3,700,000
7147 La Lenaire Dr $2,275,000
Anna Maria Island
280 Golden Gate Pr #300
Aqua
Shelley Young
$4,980,000
Joel Schemmel
Jewfish Key
606 Crestwood Ln
Key Royale AMI
Kim Freiwald
$3,899,000
Laurie Mock
Market Update Q3 2020 Q3 2020 tells a tale of a major market rebound! An incredibly strong local market in the midst a global virus pandemic. As we now know, Covid-19 (Coronavirus) first impacted stock markets and consumer confidence in January 2020 over concerns of global supply chain shortages, but Sarasota area real estate remained incredibly strong throughout January and February until the public’s emotional shift in March.
Bradenton
Sarasota
March and April took a dramatic drop in real estate activity as the world came to grips with the situation. But the market began recovering in May and has strengthened at an incredible pace through the balance of the year. The third quarter of 2020 was like no other third quarter in recent history with people leaving large urban centers for small to medium markets throughout the country. Florida demand was particularly strong, but Florida was not the only beneficiary as areas like western New Jersey and the Hamptons saw unprecedented demand. Our buyers were not just from the north. Local demand was equally strong as buyers and sellers repositioned within the region as the realization that low levels of inventory appears to be the norm for the future. All of Florida benefited but none more than the Sarasota Bradenton area due to our desirable combination of great weather in a medium sized market with beautiful beaches and remarkable amenities. Buyers get big city benefits without big city drawbacks. We are well below the freeze line so winters are perfectly moderate. It doesn’t get any better and the recent demand proves it again. No one knows what the future will hold, but history tells us that barring any major national or international event, odds are very good that the Sarasota Bradenton region will continue a strong real estate market for the foreseeable future.
May not be copied or reproduced without written approval from Premier Sotheby’s International Realty. Data from Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate.
SUPPLY Single Family Homes “For Sale” Sarasota and Manatee Counties as of 9/30/2020
Units For Sale
Months Supply
1377 Under $500,000
1.2 Incredibly low
567
$500,000 to $1 Mil
2.2 Very low
339
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
4.4 Low
135
Above $2.5 mil
2419
Combined totals
____
9 Balanced
____________
1.5 Extremely Low
The above chart evidences low inventory at all price points. This is not just a Covid-19 phenomenon. Local inventory has been on a downward path for the past couple years. Lower price points have long been in short supply, but this is the first time since the mid-2000s that we have seen this significant of an inventory shortage at the moderate and higher price points.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
DEMAND Single Family Homes
Q3 2019 vs Q3 2020
Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Went Under Contract in Q3 Q3:19
3041
Q3:20
3824
$500K to $1 Mil
Q3:19
470
Q3:20
875
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Q3:19
96
Q3:20
296
Above $2.5 mi
Q3:19
18
Q3:20
63
Combined Totals
Q3:19
906
Q3:20
1265
Under $500,000
26%
Closed Transactions 3257 3696
86%
489
208%
112
250%
19
40%
969
827
260
48
1208
13% 69% 132% 153% 25%
The Single Family Home market continues incredibly strong demand at all price points, but unquestionably demand is strongest in the $1 Million plus market segments. Homes going under contract were even stronger in the Third Quarter than the Second, thus we anticipate continued strength in closings well into the forth quarter. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Average Sale Price Single Family Homes Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Single Family Homes prices have seen a significant increase in demand and average price. Days on the Market have only reduced slightly but this is misleading because homes that are nearly new or recently updated are selling significantly faster than homes that require remodeling. We have even seen a substantial increase in the number of “multiple offer” situations on homes that fit the highest demand profile: good location, updated, good lot/view, excellent condition.
Days on Market Single Family Homes —All Prices Combined Q3:19
Q3:20
85
77
1%
Nominal Change
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
SUPPLY Condominiums & Townhomes “For Sale” Sarasota and Manatee Counties as of 9/30/2020
Units For Sale
Months Supply
1136 Under $500,000
3.0 Very low
301
$500,000 to $1 Mil
4.1 Low
106
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
3.4 Very Low
55
Above $2.5 mil
1598
Combined totals
____
18.3 High
____________
3.3 Very Low
The above chart evidences low inventory under $2.5 Million. This is not just a Covid-19 phenomenon. Local inventory has been on a downward path for the past couple years. Lower price points have long been in short supply, but Condominiums in the $1 Mil to $2.5 Mil range are uncharacteristically undersupplied at this time. The primary reason is a shortage of New Construction projects. “Bayso” in the Quay is currently one of the few projects that fits this niche.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
DEMAND Condominiums & Townhomes Q3 2019 vs Q3 2020 Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Closed Transactions
Went Under Contract in Q3 Q3:19
1275
Q3:20
1206
$500K to $1 Mil
Q3:19
162
Q3:20
224
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Q3:19
45
Q3:20
93
Above $2.5 mi
Q3:19
11
Q3:20
12
Combined Totals
Q3:19
1493
Q3:20
1535
Under $500,000
-5%
926 1152
38%
120
107%
32
9%
7
3%
1085
218
93
9
1472
24% 82% 191% 29% 36%
The Condominium / Townhome market continues steady demand but has not surged as much as the Single Family Home market. Demand is strongest in the $1 Million to $2.5 Million market segments. Homes going under contract were even stronger in the Third Quarter than the Second, thus we anticipate continued strength in closings well into the forth quarter. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Average Sale Price Condominiums & Townhomes” Sarasota and Manatee Counties
Average Sold prices have risen substantially when comparing Q3 2019 versus Q3 2020. Perhaps more important is the price surge in Q1 2020 indicating unprecedented price growth for Condominiums. The subsequent drop in Q2 2020 is a direct result of Covid-19. Overall the post Covid-19 condo rebound has been less significant than single family, but the undeniable Pre-Covid numbers indicate a continued condo rebound in the coming months.
Days on Market Condominiums & Townhomes—All Prices Combined Q3 : 19
Q3 : 20
105
98
.7%
Insignificant Change
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Sarasota and Bradenton Looking Forward The fate of the real estate market is largely tied to consumer confidence, so the recovery is highly dependent on how well our economy rebounds from the Coronavirus impact and the Presidential Election. But confidence is not the only driver. Baby boomers will continue to retire at an unprecedented rate for several years to come. They are financially stable regardless of recent market turmoil. And they still want to move to Florida.
Though we cannot predict the future, we can say with confidence that the data shows strong, increasing demand in Florida and specifically our region of Florida. We can also say confidently that as a whole inventory has been under supplied for the past couple of years and this is expected to continue going forward. Remember the old adage: “real estate is LOCAL”. It is truer than most people realize. It is next to impossible to extract logical assumptions from broad statistics that report on a large geographic areas or combined price groupings. The more specific the analysis the more valuable the information. If you are thinking of buying or selling, you have to analyze each opportunity on its own merit. Don’t use high level stats or you risk invalid value estimates. You need an apples to apples comparison by zip code, neighborhood, street, price, product, age, quality and condition. Zillow can’t give you that. The best way to accurately assess the value of a home is to work with an experienced realtor who knows your neighborhood and has the tools and knowledge behind them to provide you with valuable guidance.
To learn about specific trends in your neighborhood speak with a Realtor at Premier Sotheby’s International Realty.
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