MARKET UPDATE YTD - THIRD QUARTER 2021
SARASOTA & MANATEE COUNTIES
Welcome Our homes are more than an investment, they are a part of us; our lifestyles; our success; our energy in life. It’s no wonder that coffee talk almost always includes real estate values and market trends. All real estate is local. Trends in one city or state cannot be applied to another. In fact, sub- markets vary dramatically. Thus, we encourage you to take a few minutes to digest the data and corresponding perspectives within. Real estate, and in particular luxury real estate, is our business. Please contact us for a more detailed discussion about the market or an analysis of a specific property. We are here to serve you.
Contents
SINGLE- FAMILY HOMES Supply Demand Average Price CONDOMINIUMS & TOWNHOMES Supply Demand Average Price CRYSTAL BALL - MARKET INSIGHT
SUPPLY Single Family Homes “For Sale”
Very slight uptick indicating market turning point
Units For Sale
Months Supply
498
Under $500,000
2 weeks
311
$500,000 to $1 Mil
1 month
171
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
1.5 months
135
Above $2.5 mil
4.5 months
1115
Combined totals
3 Weeks of Supply
Month’s supply calculated by the rolling monthly average of units sold for the prior 12 months.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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DEMAND - Sold & Closed Single Family Homes
By Quarter - All Prices
Is this reduction in closed sales significant? No •
It indicates more of a normal market pattern than we have seen for the past 12 months. We normally see a reduction in 3rd Quarter closings.
•
The 2nd Quarter of this year was unprecedented with 5067 closed sales. When measured against history 4244 closed sales in the 3rd Quarter is an incredible quarter.
Why then was there a reduction is sales? •
Not enough inventory of good homes for sale to fulfill demand. Some buyers are leaving without making a purchase. We are also seeing increasing resistance to high pricing and multiple offers. Buyers are starting to question if prices have gotten too high, too fast. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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DEMAND - Sold & Closed Single Family Homes - Year to Date
Year to Date Comparison Under $500,000
Units Sold
$500K to $1 Mil
Year to Date
By Year By Price
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Above $2.5 mi
Combined Totals
Sold & Closed YTD
2019
9624
2020
9281
2021
9302
2019
1502
2020
1830
2021
3304
2019
398
2020
505
2021
993
2019
60
2020
99
2021
294
2019
11584
2020
11715
2021
13893
-4 % .2 %
No price or units sold growth under $500,000
21.8% 80.5%
27% 97%
65% 197%
1% 19%
The higher the price group, the bigger the % growth
Only 19% for all combined because under $500,000 makes up 2/3 of the units sold which brings down the average.
This is a strong statement as to Sarasota’s continued growth in the luxury market. Buyers are placing Sarasota on par with Florida’s other luxury destinations such as Naples and Southeast Florida. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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Average Sold Price Single Family Homes
Why a decrease when Demand is still strong and Supply is still so low? •
This decrease in Average Sold Price is only $19,157. This equates to a 3.2 % reduction from the prior quarter, which is statistically insignificant.
Does this indicate a coming price crash? No •
Bubble bursts and major price crashes are the result of numerous underlying problems or concerns which our society does not have: no mortgage problems, we are not oversupplied, the stock market continues to be strong, the economy continues on a relatively steady path even though there are challenges such as global supply chain issues.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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SUPPLY Condominiums & Townhomes “For Sale”
Leveling of Supply indicating slight market shift.
Units For Sale
Months Supply
212
Under $500,000
2 weeks
110
$500,000 to $1 Mil
1 month
50
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
1.5 months
27
Above $2.5 mil
1.4 months
399
Combined totals
2 Weeks of Supply
Month’s supply calculated by the rolling monthly average of units sold for the prior 12 months. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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DEMAND - Sold & Closed Condominiums & Townhomes
By Quarter - All Prices
Is this drop in closed sales an indicator of a market shift? •
It may indicate a minor adjustment towards a more normal market.
Is this concerning? No •
1449 Condo closings in the 3rd Quarter is a great quarter. Note that 3rd Quarter 2019, which was a great year, had just 1171 closings.
•
Condominium statistics can be misleading because new construction projects are entered into MLS all at once at the end of the project. Thus we see bigger peaks and valleys in condo closings statistics. You have to look at a full year to define a trend.
•
The condo market in Sarasota / Manatee is strong and healthy. Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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DEMAND - Sold & Closed Condominiums & Townhomes — Year to Date Year to Date Comparison Under $500,000
Units Sold
$500K to $1 Mil
Year to Date
By Year By Price
$1 Mil to $2.5 Mil
Above $2.5 mi
Combined Totals
Sold & Closed YTD
2019
3305
2020
3550
2021
4566
2019
412
2020
533
2021
938
2019
109
2020
172
2021
304
2019
21
2020
31
2021
172
2019
3847
2020
4286
2021
5980
7% 28 %
29 % 76 %
Solid growth at every price
58 % 77 %
48 % 455 %
Explosive growth at the high end. 110 of the 172 sales were New Construction
11 % 40 %
Our Condo market is exploding and continues to grow. The over $2.5 Million segment is the hottest segment in our market for any product (condo, townhome, single family homes, villa, etc.). Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty Data supplied is from the Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
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Average Sold Price Condominiums & Townhomes
Why would we see the average price reduce if the condo market is so hot? New construction Condo sales are reported in the MLS all at once when the project completes. As a result monthly or quarterly statistics are less reliable than reviewing the year. The Average Sold Price for Condos at all price points combined Year-To-Date is $484,282. Which is a 38% increase over the same time period the previous year! The condo market in Sarasota / Manatee is strong and healthy.
Provided by Premier Sotheby’s International Realty
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Market Shift or Continued Boom Market? We are living the “perfect storm” for a booming real estate market: baby boomers are retiring at unprecedented rates and many if not most want to live in sunshine states; Covid is causing shifts in where people want to live and where people can work; we are experiencing the greatest transfer of wealth in our history as baby boomers inherit wealth from their parents. All resulting in a massive demand for luxury homes in Sarasota Florida. It is unlikely that the current pace can continue much longer. Huge price appreciation over the past year has already resulted in pushback on properties that cannot justify their high prices. We are seeing a growing gap between lovely homes that sell for top dollar overnight versus not so nice homes that are taking a long time to sell. At some point the market has to cool. This is natural and predictable. The question is, when and how fast will it cool? We already see subtle indicators of an easing market. There are no indicators of a sudden stop or crash. Though we cannot accurately predict the future, we can make an educated statement based on the data and current market sentiment to confidently say we believe 2022 is going to be less frenzied than 2021, but still a strong market with ongoing demand and insufficient inventory. We see fewer multiple offer situations with homes starting to be on the market longer. Truly beautiful homes and condos will still pull top dollar, but odds are good they will not appreciate further in the coming months. We are headed towards a more normal market, but it may take another 6 months or longer to get there .
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Real estate photos by Coastal Home Photography, Pix360, Inc. and SRQ360 Photography Data from Stellar MLS is deemed but not guaranteed to be 100% accurate.
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