5 minute read
UK Market Insight
UK
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Well – that did not last long, did it? The Prime Minister I mean… in the last issue I mentioned that we have a new PM. Now I am writing this article and it seems that we another new PM... and a new Chancellor, and a new… I wonder what the next issue will bring? Looking at politics in the UK you could not write a better plot for a Disney cartoon.
“Inflation is too high. High energy, food and other bills are hitting people hard. If high inflation continues, it will hurt everybody.” This is the Governor of the Bank Of England stating the bleedin’ obvious! He goes on to predict that the longest and deepest recession for 30 years looks likely. The pound is in the toilet – expect price rises. The Brits are a stoic lot but there is only so much we can take. Whilst winter business looks good there are early signs of people tightening their belts. As the owner of a Pub/Restaurant we can see the early indications of inflation and belt tightening – beer is going up and sales are going down. The consumer is scared - they simply do not know what is around the corner and the lack of predictability, lack of stability are the curses of every business and every household.
The war in Ukraine continues (F Putin), energy giants continue to profit, food price rises are rampant, mortgage rates on the rise… nothing feels stable right now. But let’s hope that the winter enthusiast, many of whom have not had their ‘snow fix’ for a few years, will flood back to the slopes. At the time of writing this (November) the snow Gods have just started to deliver some tempting signs but the unseasonably warm start to winter will not have helped get the consumer mindset in the right gear.
Warm or not, in the UK there are still winter enthusiasts gagging to get it early. “Customer footfall is good.” This is Darren at The Snowboard Shop, Fleet. “It really picked up towards the end of October and is continuing to be good in November – both instore and online are good so we’re definitely not complaining.”
Are people put off by the price rises? “Honestly the price hikes affect me more in the way that I buy. Right now, customers appear to be in a grab-it-while-they-can mode. And they’re not asking for deals which is great. Our old customers know how we operate and new customers are just happy to find a real snowboard shop.”
The historical dreads for independent bricks + mortar stores are showrooming, discounting and Black Friday. “Well, actually it’s pretty good at the moment. Showrooming has all but stopped, people asking for a discount is diminishing and whilst we do not participate in Black Friday it does bring people into the store… and once they’re in the store it’s up to us to do our bit.”
So your optimistic then? “Yeah – I really am – for this season anyway. People are booking longer holidays, they’re fed up and feel that they deserve it, and they’re buying new kit to enjoy. It’s going to be a good season. Honestly my biggest concern is for the following season – I’ve seen some of the price rises and I am not sure it’s sustainable.”
FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SWISS PORTUGAL SPAIN
And the summer season… how was that? “Oh – that’s another story. Pretty bad on skate – we’ve basically been just running the stock down. We were so over-stocked but hopefully have resolved most of that now. Orders with suppliers for next year will be really low. It’s slow, very slow. And SUP did not really happen how we wanted it – all in all, a pretty crap summer.”
We can’t have everything and by now we all know that the summer was not what we wanted – but at least there is some real optimism for the coming winter. Matt from Absolute was also glad to be heading to the winter season and with a slightly different view of the summer: “It was OK and we were surprised in some areas but come August it fell off a cliff. It stopped.” And now we are heading to winter? “It’s been a slow start, but I am really optimistic. Hopefully this will finally be the return of a real winter season for us all. I certainly hope so. The early signs would probably be a lot better if deliveries were not so sporadic. The supply chain seems to be fractured with so much kit arriving in dribs and drabs. At the same time brands are asking us to place pre-orders for next season! When we’ve not sold anything from this season that’s a tall order and a recipe for disaster.” (Interestingly Darren had exactly the same observations to make). Matt continued “We’ve not had a ‘normal’ winter for years so we have no recent knowledge of the new post-covid winter. It’s certainly not going to be easy to buy with any degree of certainty.” Any other pressures? “Recruitment. We simply cannot get the staff – that’s the biggest single issue. Finding enthusiastic, knowledgeable, passionate people seems to be impossible. Anyone want a job?” There’s something Matt said that I have not quoted above because the next phone call was to Angelo at S2AS in Poole who had exactly the same thing to say – almost word for word. “I think this winter season is the last hurrah. People are fed up. They know that crap is around the corner. They’ve not been boarding for a couple of years and they’re just saying ‘fkit’ it’s time to go and enjoy.” Is it sustainable? “No it’s not and the following season is going to be bad. That’s my view but right now we need to make hay.” Any particular kit selling well? “Mid and upmarket stuff is moving but we don’t have the newbies – that could be the time of year rather than anything indicative. We’re ever hopeful.” And your summer? How was it? “Simple. Wake was great, kite is dying and SUP is well and truly dead.” Succinct as ever. So two retailers believe that this winter will have a ‘last hurrah’ flavour to it with a poor follow-on season. Angelo concludes: “Don’t get me wrong – I’m happy to get the money in the till now, but caution will be my watchword when it comes to buying for 23/24.” Given the state of the British economy, the state of British Politics and the state of the planet I do wonder if we are going to experience our ‘last hurrah’ in many different ways. Let’s hope that these guys are right and wrong… right that we are going to have a great winter season and wrong about the follow-on season.
Could we possibly hope that Putin has his last hurrah sooner rather than later? F Putin.
