Towards a Deep state? by South Asia

Comment

Dr. Siegfried O. Wolfi (Heidelberg)

Towards a Deep state? The Intrinsic ties between Imran Khan and the Taliban

No. 4, May 2013

ISSN 2196-4181 1

APSA Comment ist eine regelmäßig erscheinende Kommentare-Reihe mit einem Fokus auf aktuelle politische Ereignisse und Situationen Südasien betreffend. Die Reihe kommentiert aktuelle Ereignisse aus Expertensicht. APSA Comment is a frequently published comment series with a focus on current political events and situations concerning South Asia. The series comments current events from an expert’s point of view.

APSA (Angewandte Politikwissenschaft Südasiens) ist ein auf Forschungsförderung und wissenschaftliche Beratung ausgelegter Stiftungsfonds im Bereich der Politikwissenschaft Südasiens. APSA (Applied Political Science of South Asia) is a foundation aiming at promoting science and scientific consultancy in the realm of political science of South Asia.

Die Meinungen in dieser Ausgabe sind einzig die der Autoren und werden sich nicht von APSA zu eigen gemacht. The views expressed in APSA Comment are the sole property of the author and do not, in any way, represent that of APSA.

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Pakistan’s political development is once again

disturbs the ‘feel good atmosphere’ of the

on the edge. If one believes the domestic and

PPP and PML-N but may also induce a major

international media, the civilian leaders are

restructuring of Pakistan’s unstable party

finally

system. Caught by surprise with Khan’s rising

trying

transformation

initiate

serious a

prominence, both parties initially remained

Celebrating

shiftless in dealing with the PTI. Until recently,

themselves, the two main political parties are

there was no pressing need to worry because

emphasizing

and

with its single seat the PTI played a marginal

strengthening of a more or less stable ‘quasi-

role of importance in Pakistan’s national

the

form

parliament. Yet, recent polls suggest that

the

Imran Khan may well be on his way to a

discovery of a new parliamentary spirit. Being

‘grand electoral achievement’ which would

overwhelmed by the ability to have survived a

catapult the PTI into the government and him

full tenure and to witness the first democratic

into the position of Prime Minister, or, in a less

transfer of power in the country’s history,

bright scenario, put him into the role of a

Pakistan’s

political

‘king-maker’. Nevertheless, one has to realize

mastodons, i.e. the Pakistan People Party

that he has only been able to make some

(PPP) of incumbent President Asif Ali Zardari

remarkable progress in the Punjab, and more

and the leading opposition party Pakistan

specifically in Lahore, his only ‘stronghold’.

Muslim

the

This is gaining particular momentum as it is

brothers Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, seem to

also the ‘homeland’ of one of Khan’s greatest

ignore a political phenomenon that gained

political rivals, the PML-N. That party’s

increasing prominence over the last years.

overwhelming dominance in the national

This was interpreted by several analysts as a

assembly (it occupies more than 50% of the

laxness which might have far reaching

seats) will make sure that the PTI will have no

consequences for the contemporary and

landslide victory this province, which is

future development of the country. In brief,

Pakistan’s most important. However, at the

the emergence of Imran Khan and his

moment it seems that Khan and Nawaz Sharif

Tehreek-e-Insaf

have

consolidated

process

democracy.

the

two-party-system’, coalitions,

towards

build

sedate

appearance ability

consensus

and

League-Nawaz

(PTI),

slow

(PML-N)

known

to and

the

made an

arrangement

about

not

Movement for Justice, developed into a force

challenging the establishment in Punjab,

to be reckoned with and was apparently

meaning to maintain the status quo after

disturbing the enthusiasm of the established

successful elections (including subsequent

political stalwarts. Interestingly, this time it is

socio-economic

not the Pakistani army but a cricketer-turned-

certain electoral arrangements. This will

politician that acts as the spoiler for the mood

provide Khan with a more or less valid

for democracy in Islamabad’s political circles.

guarantee of a certain power base in form of

Khan’s so-called ‘political Tsunami’ not only

an amount of seats to count with, at least in

inequalities)

well

theory. The PML-N is also gaining much from

Analysts are wondering about the sources of

such a ‘political deal’, since it helps to ‘keeps

Imran Khan’s rise. Most of them identify the

its back free’ in order to challenge its major

increasing

rival, the PPP, in their ‘homeland’ Sindh. In

government as the main reason for Khan’s

this context, one has to state that the PML-N

popularity.

has been investing a lot of time and effort in

establish itself as a protest movement cum

this province in order to get a stronger

political

political foothold there. In sum, Khan’s

significance. In this context one should

notions of ‘progressive change and revolution’

mentioned that Khan’s movement got side-

got victimised in Punjab in order to improve

lined early 2013 by Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri

its chances in the next elections.

who was stole the ‘electioneering show’ from

unpopularity

Consequently,

party

that

the

vies

the

PPP

PTI

for

could

national

Imran Khan as the country’s best-known Similar developments are observed in in other

populist. Even though Khan lost media

provinces too. The PTI will find it hard to rival

attention for only a couple of weeks, the fact

the PPP in rural Sindh, the powerful MQM in

that Tahir-ul-Qadri was able to brush aside

Sindh’s capital Karachi, or to take on the

Khan’s ‘public visibility’ had a significant

strong regional parties in Balochistan, Khyber

impact

Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Federal Tribal

disenchanted

Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It will be

sustainability of Khan’s ‘political Tsunami’.

difficult for the PTI to break the strong

Furthermore, Khan lost its status of being the

influence of the established parties which are

‘darling of the media’ which marked the

able to draw on tribal or other traditional

starting point for a whole wave of more critical

loyalties

population

reporting on Khan’s statements and policies

generating whole vote banks for them. In

as well as the performance and activities of

order to compete with them, Khan started a

the PTI.

strategy

among

the

convincing

rural

eminent

the the

PTI’s

momentum.

people

about

It the

political

figures from other political camps to join his

Regardless of whether Khan will achieve

party to extend the PTI’s influence in other

direct power in Islamabad or not, he will be

provinces. However, the reliability of these

able, if one is reading the earlier pre-election

individuals remains questionable because

polls, to establish himself and his PTI for the

they may be chose to join the PTI out of

next tenure as a third political force, next to

opportunism rather than out of idealism. Such

the PPP and PML-N, on the national level in

motives do not enhance the creation of a

the country. Even though Khan still lacks a

sustainable future of the party and the

nationwide, substantial support base, the fact

implementation of a coherent and substantial

that the next election will have around 30

policy programme.

million new and young voters looking for political orientation might function as a game

changer. It could create a moment which will

political dynamic by cleverly using Pakistan’s

help Imran Khan finally to acquire a national

contemporary political issues to his own

character and his PTI to go beyond the status

benefits. Nevertheless, one must question if

of a ‘pressure group’. According to analysts,

he is able to achieve more, beyond a

there are still legitimate reasons to assume

respectable

that PTI can benefit from that since Khan has

regarding a successful implementation of its

won the sympathies among many young

proposed policies. In more comprehensive

voters, especially in the urban middle class

terms: to gain, exercise and maintain political

which is frustrated about the social and

power!

electoral

result

particularly

economic conditions in the country. The latest electoral rallies in the last two years as well

Therefore most important is that Khan is able

as the tremendous success of his internet

to stop the ‘disenchantment with politics’ of

campaign,

Pakistan’s whole youth and not only the urban

especially

his

social

network

activities, were an impressive demonstration

educated

of his capabilities to mobilise exactly these

associate Khan with the hope that he will

young voters en masse. At his most recent

change the whole system by giving the

rallies in Lahore and Karachi, more than

country a political landscape a new fresh,

100.000

which

progressive impetus, it is a conditio sine qua

numerically challenges the attendance of

non for the PTI’s success to maintain this

political gatherings of the PML-N and PPP. In

image. However, undoubtedly this is at the

qualitative terms too are Khans rallies, or

moment the major problem of Khan. Being

Jalsas, remarkable. Despite the fact that

obviously driven by the ultimately pursuit of

these Jalsas were ‘entertaining festivals’

power but hampered by an insufficient

rather than serious political events -which for

electoral support base Khan is willing to join

Imran Khan of course had the advantage of

increasingly alliances of all kind of political

distracting his followers and sympathisers

colours. However, his attempt to line up with

from

‘political

the radical religious right, the military and the

message’ which basically boils down to a

Taliban will have the gravest consequences.

claim to make an end to corruption, to stop

This has far-reaching consequences: for

drone attacks, and to reshuffle US-Pakistani

Khan,

relations- Khan was able to proof two things:

democratic future. Especially on some of the

First, there was or still is a rally-behind-the-

core values of democracy and underlining

PTI-flag phenomenon of Pakistan (urban)

ideational like liberalism, tolerance, individual

youth with an remarkable percentage of the

freedom and well-being, equality, freedom of

educated ones. Second, the PTI is on a good

religion and speech, human rights including

way to arrive at the national level. Imran Khan

liberties of women.

the

people

participated;

extraordinary

limited

has been able to create an impressive

his

middle

PTI,

classes.

and

for

Since

the

they

country’s

To begin with, it is argued here that Khan’s

school

appeasement towards the radical religious

commentators

groups and his remarkable shady approach

extraordinary atrocity as an exaggerate issue

towards

by the media. This is denouncing the

atmosphere in which fundamentalism and

legitimate outrage as a displaced and staged

religious extremism can grow rampantly.

spectacle and one should not make a big deal

Through his action or indifference, Khan

out of it. In other words, this is not only a

contributed to the raising political prominence

public discrediting of human rights but it also

and influence of the Taliban in Pakistan. Most

shows the weak status of fundamental rights

noteworthy

increasingly

and democratic norms and values in the

appreciation of the Taliban for their values

country. Here one should also add that

and

strongest

Khan’s legitimization of Taliban actions in

expression in the fact that the PTI leader was

Pakistan with reference to victims of drone

publicly praising the terrorist activities of the

attacks is a deliberate distortion of facts and

Taliban in Afghanistan as a ‘holy war’ which in

obviously aims to misguide the Pakistani

his view is justified by Islam. By doing so he

people and international community. It seems

implicitly also legitimizes the war crimes and

that Khan and his sympathisers have a very

atrocities like public executions of women in

weak memory when it comes to all the blown

Taliban controlled areas. For obvious reasons

up schools in the area by Taliban, the

Khan’s elaborations on the Taliban’s activities

systematic killings of tribal elders and other

in Afghanistan have not gone down well with

people willing to stand up against the

the Afghans.

repressive tactics of Taliban and associates,

the

Taliban

principles.

further

Khan’s

This

finds

create

its

girls

as can

‘drama’, denounce

and such

that an

especially the forced introduction of Sharia Furthermore,

Khan’s

expressed

deep

law.

affection towards the ‘Jihadists’ is even more disturbing

since

the

above

mentioned

Of course drone attacks are against human

statement was done after a hospital visit of

rights and the people in the FATA have a right

Malala Yousafzai, a young Pakistani girl

to live in peace. However, by blaming the US

asking for female education, who was should

one-sidedly for growing militancy is absolute

in the head by them. The fact that he did not

nonsense. The FATA has been struggling with

condemn the attackers and failed to portray

militancy and its functioning as a ‘black-site’

the Taliban as perpetrators showed that he

for endeavours of regional actors well before

has a weak spot for religious extremists. It

the beginning of the ‘war against terror’.

created a societal and political environment in

Consequently, the increase of new and

which a federal minister could call terrorists

deepening of old conflicts and cleavages and

‘his brothers’ and in which politicians of the

the taking up of arms in the area is not a

religious right can downplay the shooting of

‘collateral damage’ of US drone strikes. It is

rather a consequence of the disturbance of

regional parties in FATA and KPK sparing the

the traditional social structure and tribal

Punjab from its fight against democracy.

notion of harmony which is mainly of domestic origin and troubling the area since

By witnessing these electioneering tactics,

decades. It was easy for the Taliban to fill this

Khan’s statements are in diametric contrast to

power vacuum and to get hold of FATA. In this

his proclaimed goals that he wants to improve

context one should mention that Khan should

the social conditions of the Pakistani people

first examine the indigenous social, cultural

as a whole, including women. In brief, one

and religious flaws of the cause of militancy

must state that a young school girl was able

before blaming foreign sources. Therefore,

to show not only the way forward how to

side-lining with the extremists is not bringing

improve the conditions of female citizenry

peace at all to the people of the frontier

regarding

region.

economic and political role in the country. It

contrast,

they

feel

much

education

social,

also

violence and intimidation since three of the

dangerousness of Khan’s black and white

current most significant political parties PPP,

depictions of the issues of Taliban, militancy,

PML-N and PTI are obviously afraid of acting

US drone strikes, and Pakistan’s relationship

against them. The capitulation of these major

with the US. Furthermore, it also pointed

national civilian forces towards the Taliban is

indirectly out that Khan can’t or does not have

best outlined by two occasions: First, Khan

the political will for a substantial social

publicly announced that he can’t condemn the

change especially towards more gender

Taliban for their crimes because he has to

equalities.

his

PTI

thoughtlessness

and

officials

and

have

local

Foremost, there is a remarkable indifference,

affiliates and supporters. Sure I can give big

even dismissive approach, towards women

statements against the Taliban but that would

rights.

make them Taliban targets”. Second, PPP

expression in the rejection of the Protection of

and PML-N were even not able to find a

Women’s Rights Bill in 2006 by the PTI. The

consensus to pass a bill in order to use force

bill was rejected on the basis of it being

against Taliban in the affected areas. Facing

considered partial, i.e. that it served the

upcoming election, no politician in Islamabad

interests of the then government. This is

wants to be responsible for a major internal

hypocritical, since the actual cause for Khan’s

military operation as well as to provoke the

rejection of the ‘improvement of women rights’

Taliban. For the moment it seems that this

was partial too, because he was trying to

strategy is working out at least for the PTI and

strengthen an alliance with the religious right

PML-N, since Taliban are only attacking the

wing forces against former military-turned-

election campaigns and candidates of secular

civilian

sympathisers.

own

the

their

encouraged to continue their strategy of

protect

exposed

and

Literally,

“we

This

finds

President

its

most

Pervez

significant

Musharraf.

However, the condemnation of the Protection

gain electoral support from the religious right.

of Woman Rights Bill was not the only

For the sake of completeness in this direction,

example of PTI’s radical and strict ignorance

it should also be pointed out that Khan has

of the need for gender equality. Also the

denounced the contentious public debate

argument that it was for the ‘higher sake’ to

about the controversial blasphemy laws by

challenge the questionable legitimacy of

claiming that there are other more pressing

Pervez Musharraf’s rule since there were

issues that deserve a higher priority. With

already significant indications that his rule will

such a blatant appeasement towards the

not last much longer. In this context, one

radical religious rights and fundamentalists he

should also mention that on paper the PTI is

finally made his mark as ‘thoughtless Taliban

interested in upholding the fundamental rights

Khan’. Therefore, the story that the PTI is not

of ‘all citizens’ regardless of caste, creed and

interested in ‘power politics’ but rather in

religion. However, according to the PTI’s

‘initiating reforms’ remains a political myth.

reading gender inequalities are not included in these ideals. In this direction one has to

To sum up, by evaluating Imran Khan’s on-

note that the former President of the PTI

going election campaign one gets the

Women Wing, Fauzia Kasuri, got disqualified

feeling that he has a quite ambiguous

for the internal party election on March 22th,

relationship

2013 because of her dual citizenship in

especially when it comes to the position of

Pakistan and the US. This is even more

women. It is obvious that he is not willing or

disturbing since they allow a PTI Women

not able to understand that the respect of

Wing in North America but disqualify their

human rights is a fundamental constituent of

members for elections in case of a dual

any democratic regime worth carrying the

citizenship. To see this event only in the light

name. Narrowing down the democratic

of an internal power struggle about a certain

process just to election as a system to

position is too narrow because Kasuri had

recruit the (legitimate) political leadership

been a long-time follower of Imran’s political

combined

path. Rather, it seems that the PTI leadership

rapprochement towards the Taliban and

rests uncomfortable with having women in the

their informal induction into the political

party’s influential top positions. In this context,

decision-making

it is also notable that Imran Khan recruited

truncation of the country’s political system.

Ejaz Chaudhary a (former) member of

Therefore, if Pakistan follows Imran Khan’s

Jamaat-e-Islami, a well-known Islamist party,

path, it will soon be characterised as a

as PTI Vice President. Instead of promoting

failed democracy and it will risk getting

progressive forces, it seems that Khan is

dragged into a transformation process that

strengthening

will turn the country into a ‘deep state’. This

the

reactionary

and

conservative elements in its party in order to

basically

towards

with

means

human

the

process

that

rights,

successive

the

further

country

controlled by a small group of influential,

are willing to stand up against religious

reactionary

extremism and fundamentalism and such

anti-democratic

forces

-a

situation which is not unknown for the

people

country. However, it is also argued that a

appeasement with the Taliban in order to

‘deep state’ is featured by several such anti-

achieve

systemic groups maintaining an antagonistic

undoubtedly play into the hands of the

relationship towards each other but still

extremists as it will grant them more and

running somehow more or less collectively

more prominence in Pakistan’s political

the core affairs of the states behind the

landscape which will eventually lead to

scenes. Since the Taliban will neither be

increasing

able to re-establish their Islamic theocracy

illegitimate,

in Afghanistan nor to get in power in

However, this will have tremendous impact

Islamabad but are able to harm significantly

on Imran Khan’s feasibility to convince the

the

economic

much-needed youth to vote for him. Though

development of Pakistan, the country’s

Pakistan’s youth in general and in particular

establishment might feel tempted to arrange

the

a certain status for the Taliban. This could

religious

look like this: most likely not to attack them

automatically

in certain areas as well as not to disturb

sympathies for the Taliban and radical right-

them in establishing Shariah and parallel

wing religious forces. In this context, one

administrative structures. Such a scenario

could make a point of reference towards

would stage the setting of a deep state in

Hindu-Nationalism in India. The senior

Pakistan and Imran Khan is, deliberately or

leadership

unconsciously, increasingly the harbinger of

Bharatiya Janata Party, foremost former

it. Additionally, with this ambiguous political

Prime

manoeuvring Khan is not at all working

understood clearly that the Indian middle

towards a fundamental political change.

class is more interested in economic

Rather, he enforces the further polarisation

performance

of Pakistan’s deeply divided society. This

subsequently an improvement of their job

polarization is not so much about the

opportunities and living standards than in an

proclaimed

the

ideology of hate and discriminatory actions

stereotype camps of ‘representatives of the

against religious minorities. The case of

western secularism who are abandoning the

Pakistan is likely not to be any different.

traditional Islamic life’ and such ‘people who

Pakistan’s youth is frustrated with their

are believing in the time-honoured Islamic

country’s corrupt and clientelistic political

norms and values’, it is more about the

system and they are desperately looking for

strengthening of a split between people who

a leader who will break these socially

political,

social

and

fragmentation

between

who a

prefer ‘pseudo

social

some peace’.

This

acceptance

extra-judicial

middle

class

ones

sentiments,

the

Minister

nourish

that

does they

political

Atal

the

of will

their

behaviour.

this

imply

kind

Bihari

wing,

deep not have

the

Vajpayee

country

and

entrenched

patterns.

Therefore,

indicated above, Khan must stage himself as a beacon for change who is ready to challenge the perceived reactionary civilian and military establishment which is either afraid of the Taliban or still think that one can talk them into a durable peace deal. Only if this works out, Khan will be able to transform the people power of his ‘tsunami’ into an electoral success. Until then, the PTI will be known as an upcoming but ‘untested’ political party. However, it does not look like this at all and instead of creating a political tsunami catching the youth in masses, Khans appearance will be nothing more than just a short dangerous episode but with long term consequences doing more harm than good.

Acknowledgment: The author is grateful to the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF), Brussels for the extended support on this report. i